The Swamp

He's 4th FIP after the greatest one, Papelbon and _______. Guess. Its good.



(Hint: Since I don't feel like this dragging on, one of this RPs starters also should have gotten a lot more consideration than he did.)

Joe Nathan/Brad Radke?

omg it's not Benitez is it?

Just read a piece on ESPN about griffey...and the kicker was that he should have his hat on backwards in his plaque. That would be awesome.

I just wanted to thank Mr. D for putting Ausmus last behind Eckstein.

What's the over/under on Eckstein votes? Is Bernie Miklasz allowed to vote more than once?

Ryan wrote:Joe Nathan/Brad Radke?

You can't feel good about that guess.

Henke. The SP I had in mind was Steib but I guess Key would make even more sense here.



(Speaking of Steib and a lot of pitchers from a certain era ... I wonder if fWAR is all wrong on them. Its based off FIP which is based off SO/BB/HR and SO just weren't as much as a thing back then. They were always valuable and retroactively highly valued, but it wasn't how the game was played and, unlike hitter walks which are a universal good whether or not it was valued at the time, SOs weren't a necessity for or predictor of success.)

mister d wrote:but it wasn't how the game was played and, unlike hitter walks which are a universal good whether or not it was valued at the time, SOs weren't a necessity for or predictor of success.)

Which is weird because there were like 20 fields in the 80's where, if the ball was hit more than 5 feet from a fielder, it was going to be a triple.

What's the correlation between a list of top strikeout pitchers back then to their overall performance as compared to a similar list today?

Depends on how you define overall performance, which is usually WAR. Circular reference!

Looks like Fangraphs has ERA-, so that's what I'm using. Be back ...

mister d wrote:Depends on how you define overall performance, which is usually WAR. Circular reference!

Yeah, I just did it that way, realizing that.

Minimum 1,000 IP
Correlation of the Top 100 in FIP to their K/9 ranks - 1980-1990 = 0.535
Correlation of the Top 100 in FIP to K/9 ranks - 2005-2015 = 0.729!

WAR is much closer. 0.58 now and 0.50 then

I went big ...

Sample: All SPs with 120+ IP



Year: Correl (SO% Leader, Team, SO%)
1947: 0.33 (Ewell Blackwell, Reds, 17.8)
1948: 0.26 (Ewell Blackwell, Reds, 19.0)
1949: 0.33 (Curt Simmons, Phillies, 15.1)
1950: 0.12 (Ewell Blackwell, Reds, 17.1)
1951: 0.32 (Mickey McDermott, Red Sox, 17.4)
1952: 0.38 (Vinegar Bend Mizell, Cardinals, 17.5)
1953: 0.22 (Carl Erskine, Dodgers, 18.2)
1954: 0.30 (Billy Pierce, White Sox, 18.1)
1955: 0.32 (Herb Score, Indians, 25.1)
1956: 0.22 (Herb Score, Indians, 25.7)
1957: 0.20 (Bob Turley, Yankees, 21.0)
1958: 0.25 (Sam Jones, Cardinals, 21.6)
1959: 0.07 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 25.5)
1960: 0.25 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 26.2)
1961: 0.34 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 25.2)
1962: 0.44 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 29.0)
1963: 0.32 (Jim Maloney, Reds, 26.2)
1964: 0.40 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 25.6)
1965: 0.48 (Sandy Koufax, Dodgers, 29.5)
1966: 0.44 (Sam McDowell, Indians, 27.9)
1967: 0.35 (Luis Tiant, Indians, 25.1)
1968: 0.47 (Luis Tiant, Indians, 26.8)
1969: 0.23 (Tom Griffin, Astros, 24.7)
1970: 0.30 (Ken Brett, Red Sox, 25.2)
1971: 0.41 (Tom Seaver, Mets, 26.2)
1972: 0.16 (Nolan Ryan, Angels, 28.5)
1973: 0.22 (Nolan Ryan, Angels, 28.3)
1974: 0.28 (Nolan Ryan, Angels, 26.5)
1975: 0.35 (Frank Tanana, Angels, 26.1)
1976: 0.21 (Nolan Ryan, Angels, 27.4)
1977: 0.55 (Nolan Ryan, Angels, 26.8)
1978: 0.30 (J.R. Richard, Astros, 26.6)
1979: 0.26 (J.R. Richard, Astros, 26.6)
1980: 0.29 (Steve Carlton, Phillies, 23.3)
1981: 0.30 (Fernando Valenzuela, Dodgers, 23.8)
1982: 0.47 (Mario Soto, Reds, 26.3)
1983: 0.37 (Steve Carlton, Phillies, 23.3)
1984: 0.26 (Dwight Gooden, Mets, 31.4)
1985: 0.35 (Sid Fernandez, Mets, 26.3)
1986: 0.36 (Mike Scott, Astros, 28.7)
1987: 0.37 (Nolan Ryan, Astros, 30.9)
1988: 0.42 (Roger Clemens, Red Sox, 27.4)
1989: 0.39 (Nolan Ryan, Rangers, 30.5)
1990: 0.32 (Nolan Ryan, Rangers, 28.4)
1991: 0.40 (Nolan Ryan, Rangers, 29.7)
1992: 0.40 (Randy Johnson, Mariners, 26.1)
1993: 0.54 (Randy Johnson, Mariners, 29.3)
1994: 0.33 (Randy Johnson, Mariners, 29.4)
1995: 0.37 (Randy Johnson, Mariners, 34)
1996: 0.48 (John Smoltz, Braves, 27.7)
1997: 0.53 (Randy Johnson, Mariners, 34.2)
1998: 0.52 (Kerry Wood, Cubs, 33.3)
1999: 0.55 (Pedro Martinez, Red Sox, 37.5)
2000: 0.54 (Pedro Martinez, Red Sox, 34.8)
2001: 0.48 (Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 36.7)
2002: 0.40 (Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 32.3)
2003: 0.57 (Kerry Wood, Cubs, 30.0)
2004: 0.52 (Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 30.1)
2005: 0.52 (Mark Prior, Cubs, 26.8)
2006: 0.50 (Scott Kazmir, Devil Rays, 26.7)
2007: 0.48 (Erik Bedard, Orioles, 30.2)
2008: 0.61 (Rich Harden, - - -, 30.4)
2009: 0.44 (Tim Lincecum, Giants, 28.8)
2010: 0.49 (Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays, 28.3)
2011: 0.48 (Brandon Beachy, Braves, 28.6)
2012: 0.35 (Stephen Strasburg, Nationals, 30.2)
2013: 0.54 (Yu Darvish, Rangers, 32.9)
2014: 0.48 (Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 31.9)
2015: 0.58 (Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 33.8)

Ohgodohgodohgodohgodohgodohgodohgod ...

Rooting for The Head and Raines. Rooting against Clemens. Just because, and logic be damned. Also rooting against The Smiths and Pete Rose.

C'mon now, The Smiths were a great band.

mister d wrote:Ohgodohgodohgodohgodohgodohgodohgod ...

I really hope that isn't fucking with us. But it probably is. I might die.

So that's saying "no" for Raines and Bagwell, "yes" for Piazza and Griffey, right? Hence the "could not be found" vs. "not authorized" messages?

Johnny Carwash wrote:So that's saying "no" for Raines and Bagwell, "yes" for Piazza and Griffey, right? Hence the "could not be found" vs. "not authorized" messages?

That's the assumption, which is probably wrong, but if not...there are a couple who are "not authorized" as well that might make me and Mr D. explode (hint: Ausmus-Brad is a not found)

I initially took it as "OMG THERE'S A PAGE" but now I'm seeing Bonds has the authorization message and I'm thinking there are placeholder pages for guys and Raines doesn't have one. I'm going to die.

Griffey, Piazza, Raines.

How am I the first one to post this?

ETA - because I'm a fucking idiot. That's the ESPN list.

So Raines 23(?) votes short. Who besides Vlad comes on next year?

Next year is Vlad-Pudge-Manny, right? I think they all are the same year.

Edmonds one and done. Fuck you, backlog

Eckstein got 2 votes.

Who doesn't vote for Griffey?

Also, creatively looking at the baseball amateur draft, Griffey was selected 44 slots AFTER Piazza.

Eta- wow blew that. 87 draft. Debut in 89. My bad.

I said this on Twitter and really meant it, but I'm actually glad Trammell didn't get voted in (not that it was ever going to happen). Him and Whitaker getting to go into together via the Veteran Committee will be pretty sweet. Each has the highest bWAR at their respective position of any person eligible for the Hall to play in the 20th century. Neither ever really got a sniff at being elected by the writers.

teeteebee wrote:Who doesn't vote for Griffey?

Really hope atleast one of the voters did it because of overflow on his/her ballot.

I'm not saying this is a good idea, but I wonder what happens if you told voters they'd get axed if they voted for anyone who ended up with less than 10% or left off anyone with more than 90%. I'm flexible on the numbers.

So was Griffey the greatest OF ever? Looking at his stats, and considering how many fewer games and at bats he had compared to Mays, it's very arguable.

teeteebee wrote:Who doesn't vote for Griffey?

Probably the same asshats who didn't vote for Tom Seaver or Henry Aaron.

psunate77 wrote:So was Griffey the greatest OF ever? Looking at his stats, and considering how many fewer games and at bats he had compared to Mays, it's very arguable.

I'd say he's bottom half of the top 10, if that. Not a knock, but more a recognition of the overall accomplishments of the others. Maybe if he had stayed healthy, but injuries reduced him to an above-average but far-from-great player after he turned 30.

Whether you meant CF or OF, no, Griffey is not the best ever. Not even a reasonable argument at either spot (Ruth or Mays).

mister d wrote:

teeteebee wrote:Who doesn't vote for Griffey?

Really hope atleast one of the voters did it because of overflow on his/her ballot.

I think there was an article on that premise -- not voting for Griffey because he'll get in and others deserve votes.

yeah, once they lift the 10 player restriction someone will get 100%

JEEEEEEET!!!

http://bbwaa.com/2016/11/17-hof-ballot/

Less than 2 months to go until I get all worked up again.

This has to be Tim Raines' year, right? I hate getting angry for the same reason every year.

bapo! wrote:This has to be Tim Raines' year, right? I hate getting angry for the same reason every year.

i think so.. pudge and manny are the only slam dunks so Bagwell and Raines should be in. Hoffman too?
Bonds and Clemens might get close too if not in.