The Swamp

I agree he's probably worthy, but Thome being at 98 percent is insane and I believe it has mostly to do with him being beloved by the media.

At least Clemens, Bonds, and the Moose are trending up.


ETA: I agree wholeheartedly with Thome. He's a modern-day Killebrew, and he's a no-doubt about it HoFer, but his personality is giving him about 10% more than I think would be normal.

So is it a safe assumption that the writer's who aren't making their votes public are anti-PED and nerdy stats, and pro-hustle and traditional-type players?

Based on that, I'd say everyone above the line there makes it except maybe Edgar, but anyone currently below misses out. Mussina might get a Yankees bump.

Chipper, Vlad, Thome, Hoffman.

Edit:

Johnny Carwash wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:36 pm Moyer will get at least one "I know he's not really a Hall of Famer, but I really liked him" vote from some Baby Boomer writer, book it.

Jamie Moyer: 10 votes (2.4%)

Meatloaf should do a song called “Three Outta Four Ain’t Bad” LOL.

Seriously? Chipper??

I couldn't even work up the vitriol to be mad. Just flabbergasted at the fucking high horse these guys who ignored all this shit are now sitting on.

Also, Heard on Gowingo yesterday that they don't think these guys will ever get in through the veteran's committee. That's kinda stupid isn't it? It isn't always gonna be Joe Fucking Morgan. Eventually that committee is gonna be made up of guys like Greg Maddux who had to pitch against him.

I think they’ll eventually get in. Once people fully realize just how rampant PEDs are and have been in all sports (and not just baseball, cycling and Russian Olympic teams), it’ll seem crazy to make an example out of baseball players. And while people will obviously differ on where to exactly to draw the HOF line, guys like Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod are obvious HOF’ers.

It insane that Edgar Martinez still hasn't made it.

If this doesn't say it all...

Any long time voter who "knows" Thome didn't ever take PEDs is complicit, stupid or both.

Racist is a subcategory of stupid, I take it?

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:39 pm Any long time voter who "knows" Thome didn't ever take PEDs is complicit, stupid or both.

Feel the same about Frank Thomas.

Yeah, I can't even go racist because Thomas and Vlad got in without a shrug while Piazza and Bagwell got stalled. Its all stupid as fuck.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:31 pm Yeah, I can't even go racist because Thomas and Vlad got in without a shrug while Piazza and Bagwell got stalled. Its all stupid as fuck.

Same with Griffey. Apparently the rule is that if you smiled a lot, you didn't use PEDs (unless you were actually caught cheating, like Sammy Sosa).

Gonna be fascinating when Ortiz comes up between him being a DH most of his career and having a reported positive steroid test. I imagine the media's Boston/New York/East Coast bias will carry him easily on the first ballot.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:23 pm Gonna be fascinating when Ortiz comes up between him being a DH most of his career and having a reported positive steroid test. I imagine the media's Boston/New York/East Coast bias will carry him easily on the first ballot.

I would submit Manny's history on the ballot that it'll be the friendly hero persona that gets him in way over the location bias

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:28 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:23 pm Gonna be fascinating when Ortiz comes up between him being a DH most of his career and having a reported positive steroid test. I imagine the media's Boston/New York/East Coast bias will carry him easily on the first ballot.

I would submit Manny's history on the ballot that it'll be the friendly hero persona that gets him in way over the location bias

I think that's fair. Basically Ortiz has everything working in his favor.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:37 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:28 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:23 pm Gonna be fascinating when Ortiz comes up between him being a DH most of his career and having a reported positive steroid test. I imagine the media's Boston/New York/East Coast bias will carry him easily on the first ballot.

I would submit Manny's history on the ballot that it'll be the friendly hero persona that gets him in way over the location bias

I think that's fair. Basically Ortiz has everything working in his favor.

Don't forget the large number of people who will use "clutch" as a reason.

That’s a real reason though!

Yeah, I don't have a big problem with clutchness - i.e., being known for coming through in high-visibility high-pressure moments - being considered when you're talking about a Hall of "Fame". It seems relevant.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:59 pm Yeah, I don't have a big problem with clutchness - i.e., being known for coming through in high-visibility high-pressure moments - being considered when you're talking about a Hall of "Fame". It seems relevant.

Except that there's (almost) no such thing as "clutch" there's just PR.

In the postseason, the great David Ortiz (.289/.404/.543 postseason) had the ability to transform himself into regular season non-HoFer Lance Berkman (.293/.406/.537).

67.3% of Berkman’s regular season PAs came against Glendon Rusch

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:58 pm 67.3% of Berkman’s regular season PAs came against Glendon Rusch

Which makes Ortiz look worse?

No?

So you're a huge Glendon Rusch fan?

What’s happening?

Rank the following from "wow, 67.3% of his PAs against makes his line even more impressive" to "hmmm, 67.3% of his PAs against makes his line seems inflated":
1. Greg Maddux
2. Glendon Rusch
3. "The league"

132

Ortiz matches a good hitter’s regular season stats while facing presumably better pitching. What did I mess up?

Ohhhhhhh ... so you’re countering “this slash line isn’t enough for a bat only player” by saying “this guy who was a better hitter who also played the field is actually less good than his slash because of Glendon Rusch”. Gotcha. Keep that in your pocket in case a Rice campaign is needed.

(I assume this bodes well for Pettitte who was Carpenter/Sheets but in the AL facing only playoff hitters.)

Back to an earlier topic, do you think many voters would have forgiven Bonds for his flagrant PED use if he had been a more likable person during his playing career?

Despite Ortiz' rumored use of PEDs, it isn't something many people seem to associate with him. Is that because he IS a likable person? Or, because of reasonable doubt?

I’m not sure there’s been a better modern sports usage of the term “witch hunt” than with MLB and Bonds. They might never chase him if he’s a beloved new Ruth versus a surly dude who knows just how great he is.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:57 pm (I assume this bodes well for Pettitte who was Carpenter/Sheets but in the AL facing only playoff hitters.)

To the degree that postseason factors would matter to me as a voter, shit yeah.

So then is this at all an interesting comp?

Ortiz versus all hitters, DH era on: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,d

Pettitte versus all pitchers, DH era on: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &players=0

I’m still just playing along here but your original specific comparison has now morphed into something way more generic which I have no problem with.

If I attempted to slight Pele by saying “yeah he’s so awesome that he averaged exactly as many goals per game as Nigel Pugginsworth in the EPL” that wouldn’t seem silly?

Assume here that Nigel Pugginsworth is near the top level of soccer’s Hall of Very Good.

So David Ortiz is Pele in this analogy?

I would say my original point was that you can take whatever Ortiz's regular season numbers were and judge them as HoF worthy or not. I would argue, strongly, the comps say they aren't, atleast not until a dozen plus players are cleared in ahead of him. I would argue even more strongly that playoff performance was always going to be the gap filler here, no matter how big or small that gap was. Its not as large as Jack Morris', I'll certainly grant, but the approach is the same. "Even if you don't think he should be in on X, Y definitely does it." And then I looked up Pettitte and that one really surprised me how well it fit here so I decided to use it as well.

The 2022 ballot is going to ruin friendships, families, and (if something else doesn't get there first) America itself:

Barry Bonds (10th year)
Roger Clemens (10th)
Curt Schilling (10th)
Gary Sheffield (8th)
Manny Ramirez (6th)
Omar Vizquel (5th)
Todd Helton (4th)
Andy Pettitte (4th)
Miguel Tejada (4th)
Alex Rodriguez (1st)
David Ortiz (1st)

(I look forward to first ballot Hall of Famers Jimmy Rollins and AJ Pierzynski emerging from this group.)


Footnotes: I'm putting in Rivera, Halladay and Jeter on the first ballot, and Mussina sometime before 2022. Tejada is a 5% risk but hopefully he will make it to 2022 for maximum humor potential.