The Swamp

µ The second season begins on Wednesday. Which series are yinz guys looking forward to?

Capitals/Islanders should be hugely entertaining. Ottawa/Montreal could be off the hook, as the kids these days are fond of saying. And I'm looking forward to watching Calgary and Winnipeg, if for no other reason than two of our favorite Swampers will be heavily invested in those series.

µ There's a strong lack of buzz here about the Pens/Rangers series. The Pens have been a disaster the past six weeks or so. A ton of injuries, coupled with poor cap management, meant that they were playing with five defensemen the last couple of weeks as they were unexpectedly fighting for a playoff spot. I don't know what Fenwick and Corsi have to say about it, but I'm guessing that dressing five defensemen is typically frowned upon.

When healthy, Malkin is capable of being the best player in the league, but I don't think that he's healthy. Crosby has been playing more like himself the past month or so. Fleury is an unexpected strength heading into the postseason. Hornqvist has been a beast. But losing LeTang (French for 'The Tang') to yet another concussion just saps so much of my interest/excitement. Not to mention Dupuis and Maata and Erhoff. It's been a lost season. Looks like another year of Crosby's and Malkin's prime is going to be wasted.

I haven't seen much of the Rangers this season, but I've generally liked this team the past few years. They're my pick to win the Cup. I don't think that Lundqvist needs it to validate his career, but I would be happy for him.

µ In all honesty, I'm much more interested in the Erie/London series in the OHL playoffs. Erie is currently up 3-0, and Connor McDavid is still scoring goals like this. (That was his fifth and final goal on Friday night. He has 7 goals and 5 assists thru 3 games.) The draft lottery will be broadcast by NBC on Saturday night. Go Sabres!

Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs


what hockey team completes that sequence?

Yissssssssssssssss. It's the most. wonderfullll tiiiiiiiime of the yearrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Watch out for Minnesota. Could easily stonewall STL in the first round behind Dubnyk. Their defense is something to be reckoned with.

How fun is watching Carey Price and Andrew Hammond duel going to be?

I think my Hawks exit early this year, even with 88 back. I've watched more of their games this year than years prior and they have some glaring holes especially on the defensive side. Rosival is tragically bad, and with Oduya hurt, they are forced to split up Keith and Seabrook to cover for him. I'm not a big fan of Oduya but with him gone, it brings the entire defensive corps down.

Wild in 6. Hawks in 6/7. Ducks in 5. Flames in 6/7. I don't pay enough attention to the East, but NYR in 4 or 5 seems like an easy bet.

Rex wrote:Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs


what hockey team completes that sequence?

LAK. and they're golfing.

As much flack as MAF gets I was stunned to hear he's the only Stanley Cup winning goalie in the East.
In fact for all the playoffs teams, only MAF and Crawford have rings.

Rex wrote:Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs

what hockey team completes that sequence?

Yeah, fuck Nashville.

BSF wrote:Watch out for Minnesota. Could easily stonewall STL in the first round behind Dubnyk.

He has to be ready to collapse soon. I'm currently reading Oriana Small's/Ashley Blue's porn memoir, and there's a strong over-usage analogy in there somewhere.

Rex wrote:Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs

what hockey team completes that sequence?

Montreal if you're grouping by largest, most annoying, entitled fan base. Boston probably second. LA if by constantly good (until this year).

Other than the Jets series (more on that below), Capitals-Islanders is the one I would try and watch the most. There's no one that compares to watching Ovechkin play hockey, in terms of excitement. He just looks different than anyone else in what he does (That's not to say there aren't better hockey players than him, though).

I'm not as down on the Penguins as most seem to be, but they're not on the level of the Rangers or Lightning. I think Washington comes out of the Metro and Tampa Bay crushes either Montreal or Ottawa in the Atlantic.

The Central is going to be a brawl, and the Jets getting 5th in the division and crossing over to the Pacific is probably the best seed in the entire division. I'll say Chicago over St Louis in round 2.

Winnipeg. Easily this is the best Winnipeg Jets team since Dale Hawerchuk was around. With league-average goaltending they are a top-10 team in the league. With elite goaltending, which they've been getting the last 4 weeks (out of nowhere), they're a legitimate threat to reach the conference finals.
Things are bananas here. It is essentially the only thing happening in this city for the rest of April. We could make Rob Ford premier tomorrow and no one would notice. And I don't think people even no what to feel. It feels like the first season when the hockey didn't matter at all, it was just exciting to be. (since then, it's about wins and losses and locker room drama like any other city). The mood now is similar, there's way, way more excitement about being in the playoffs than about actually succeeding.
Look for me in the stands in Game 4, i'll be wearing white.

hilarious.

travzilla wrote:....Look for me in the stands in Game 4, i'll be wearing white.

I'm rooting for the 20% on Saturday night.


aside from that I am absolutely all about the Jets as well - they've been fun to watch their first few years mostly because of the fans, but now they're a damn good team. this 1-8 stuff is pretty meaningless - the gap is small, if any.

Not just because i'm currently a temporary Canadian resident but those are the series i'm most interested in by far - I'd default to Montreal because i've always hated the Sens...but not this year, as damn that's another fun team to watch. 21-3-3 since early Feb? that's not a hot streak, that's a dangerous club. I guess I hope it goes 6 or 7 with the home team winning the series. If (i said IF) the Jets go out at any point, then i'll root for the Canucks. Sorry degen - it's a soft-rooting in round 1, i'll root for whoever wins that series too. I've always had a little thing for the Canucks, even though they've been strangely hate-worthy at times of their existence...

MaxWebster wrote:hilarious.

travzilla wrote:....Look for me in the stands in Game 4, i'll be wearing white.

I'm rooting for the 20% on Saturday night.

aside from that I am absolutely all about the Jets as well - they've been fun to watch their first few years mostly because of the fans, but now they're a damn good team. this 1-8 stuff is pretty meaningless - the gap is small, if any.

Not just because i'm currently a temporary Canadian resident but those are the series i'm most interested in by far - I'd default to Montreal because i've always hated the Sens...but not this year, as damn that's another fun team to watch. 21-3-3 since early Feb? that's not a hot streak, that's a dangerous club. I guess I hope it goes 6 or 7 with the home team winning the series. If (i said IF) the Jets go out at any point, then i'll root for the Canucks. Sorry degen - it's a soft-rooting in round 1, i'll root for whoever wins that series too. I've always had a little thing for the Canucks, even though they've been strangely hate-worthy at times of their existence...

I hate the Canucks as much as any normal canadian, but I don't know how anyone cannot love the Sedins. Just fascinating what they do together. Also Eddie Lack seems very likeable.
I feel good for Bryan Murray (Sens GM, terminal cancer), so I don't mind if their run continues, but i'm a big Carey Price fan.

Here's the bracket (no reseeding between rounds anymore) if anyone is making their own picks:

Rex wrote:Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs


what hockey team completes that sequence?

Based on fans and media attention, I think it would be Toronto, if they were any good. But, they aren't. Boston or LA might qualify, but they missed the playoffs. Soo... [scratches head...]

I've kind of adopted Ottawa this year, with my Sharks on the sidelines (Win that lottery... Win that lottery...). I never rooted for Ottawa before (fuck Chris Neil), but they have some exciting young forwards and the Hamburglar is a great story. Montreal is much more talented than they are, but have been unimpressive over the past month.

The Isles and Washington should be another fun series to watch. Lots of firepower on both sides. I think Washington could go a long way this year.

Minnesota seems to be a darling of some, but I think St. Louis is going to pound them, on the strength of their second, third and fourth lines, and a defense that can score. But, I'm not sold on their goaltending.

Nobody is picking Anaheim, and I'm not going to do so, either. Go, Winnipeg.

Calgary and Vancouver could be really an exciting series, but I don't see either of them going further.

The Rangers look great to me, with Lundqvist healthy again. Pittsburgh needs "the Tang" (h/t to Bapo) to really step up. They look tired.

Chicago has Kane coming back and they are always a contender. They have to beat a fading Nashville team, don't they? I like Nashville, if only because Mike Ribeiro and Roman Josi were fantasy studs for me... Yeah, that's the only reason.

Detroit looks like Nashville and Pittsburgh to me - talented but beat up and tired. Can't see them beating a really good Tampa Bay team.

I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

sancarlos wrote:The Rangers look great to me, with Lundqvist healthy again. Pittsburgh needs "the Tang"(h/t to Bapo) to really step up. They look tired.

Rangers this year are pretty identical to Rangers last year with the exception of Nash going from a guy who drifted around the perimeter and only made an impact when scoring to a pretty dominant big (don't want to say power) forward again. And I guess as a whole they're faster, like everyone can move, which means the structure stays intact top to bottom and allows for line adjustments more readily. I can't see Pittsburgh winning unless one or both of Crosby and Malkin go off and MAF pulls a reverse MAF. I think they're probably 3 way co-favorites in the conference with Montreal and Tampa Bay and a bad matchup with the Islanders, goaltending excepted. So, I'm sure, Penguins in 5.

(Also, they're a really weird advanced stats team. Mid-pack or lower in almost all Corsi/Fenwick calcs, but watching them its really hard to argue they don't drive the pace most every game. I'm thinking its probably a matter of score adjustments not fully adjusting for a team that lead constantly and probably felt more comfortable than most defending leads versus pushing for more. If you do their numbers by period, they're above 50% for 1 and 2 then well under for 3, so that might sort of back things up. That and Dan Girardi is on the ice for 25:00 per game, doesn't shoot and has no problem eating opposing shots.)

mister d wrote:(Also, they're a really weird advanced stats team.)

§ Thanks for this. I have not delved too deeply into hockey's advanced stats. There are only so many things that I can force myself to care about, and Fenwick and Corsi and Brandon Sutter's true worth just aren't on that list yet. Maybe next season. For now, I enjoy hockey with an Ontarian's perspective: I'm a manly man, and manly men watch hockey. That's enough for me.

That said, I do enjoy when talk of numbers and attempts to make sense of them come up. I'll read it if you post it.

§ Also, sancarlos, The Tang will not be 'stepping up.' He's all but been officially ruled out for the rest of the season, no matter how deeply the Penguins advance. (Spoiler: it won't be deep.)

This is, I think, his fourth concussion. From what I understand, he's not allowed to excercise at all right now. This sucks. Hockey is better now, and we're not having as many of these conversations as we were five years ago, but this stuff is still there. The play that injured Letang was completely unnecessary and reckless. Shane Doan hit him late, behind the play, but it was technically legal. No penalty, no fine.

Going forward, I'm more concerned about Letang than I am about Crosby. I hate this.

brian wrote:I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

Were there issues last year? My memory is fuzzy. The Tampa crowd is usually pretty reverent for the Canadian anthem.

That Doan hit was textbook "legal but dirty". Absolutely no reason for it.

brian wrote:I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

Who's going to replace Jean Beliveau in calming down the Montreal crowd?

govmentchedda wrote:

brian wrote:I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

Were there issues last year? My memory is fuzzy. The Tampa crowd is usually pretty reverent for the Canadian anthem.

Oh, I'm not specifically calling out Tampa fans. I just have a feeling something's going to happen.

bapo! wrote:

mister d wrote:(Also, they're a really weird advanced stats team.)

§ Thanks for this. I have not delved too deeply into hockey's advanced stats. There are only so many things that I can force myself to care about, and Fenwick and Corsi and Brandon Sutter's true worth just aren't on that list yet. Maybe next season. For now, I enjoy hockey with an Ontarian's perspective: I'm a manly man, and manly men watch hockey. That's enough for me.

That said, I do enjoy when talk of numbers and attempts to make sense of them come up. I'll read it if you post it.

The thing about advanced stats for hockey is that they really aren't that advanced. I'm not sure what the pushback in baseball was like from the mainstream when their analytics were developed, but in hockey it has been comical from the old gaurd media.

Basically Corsi (as measured by all attempted shots for and against) is a close approximation for puck possession time (which is not tracked). Past corsi more closely relates to future success closer than past wins or goal differential. A 53% corsi is a really good team (Chicago), a 44% corsi is a pretty bad team (Calgary). A 37% corsi team is unfathomably, historically bad (Buffalo).
Fenwick is the same as corsi except doesn't include blocked shots.

My other favourite basic advanced stat is PDO, which is essential a measure of a teams luck. A team with a 8% shooting percentage and a 92.0% save percentage has a PDO of 100. As historically average shooting and save percentages tend to settle around these levels, a team with a PDO over 100 suggests they've been lucky with unsustainably high shooting or save rates and are likely to regress. A team with a PDO under 100 would be the opposite. It's an easy number to show who's a fraud (Colorado last year, Toronto the year before), and who's legitimate.

And both of those stats will go away within a few years assuming shot quality can be proven.

I'm not sure what the pushback in baseball was like from the mainstream when their analytics were developed, but in hockey it has been comical from the old gaurd media.

Oh, the pushback was strong. I was a relatively early adopter of baseball's advanced metrics, and for years I went back and forth between being annoyed by the unbelievers, and amused by them. But slowly, gradually, those numbers have worked their way into standard baseball broadcasts and articles. I still get teary-eyed thinking of the first time I saw a player's OPS listed instead of his RBIs.

I think part of the hang-up for me is the simple fact that baseball is essentially an individual sport, so individual stats matter more. That's not as true in hockey, football, and basketball. (And yeah, I know that you were referencing team metrics in your post, but I tend to lean more towards the individual in these matters, I guess.) Also, when I was digging for baseball stats in, say, 2006 or whenever, it was a lot of work to find that stuff. I don't want to go thru that again. I'm guessing that PDO, etc. will gradually find more mainstream recognition, and I'll see it bubble up in the coming years. I'm probably ahead of most hockey fans in understanding this stuff, but I'm not at the top of the class. I can live with that. For now.

bapo! wrote:

I'm not sure what the pushback in baseball was like from the mainstream when their analytics were developed, but in hockey it has been comical from the old gaurd media.

Oh, the pushback was strong. I was a relatively early adopter of baseball's advanced metrics, and for years I went back and forth between being annoyed by the unbelievers, and amused by them. But slowly, gradually, those numbers have worked their way into standard baseball broadcasts and articles. I still get teary-eyed thinking of the first time I saw a player's OPS listed instead of his RBIs.

I think part of the hang-up for me is the simple fact that baseball is essentially an individual sport, so individual stats matter more. That's not as true in hockey, football, and basketball. (And yeah, I know that you were referencing team metrics in your post, but I tend to lean more towards the individual in these matters, I guess.) Also, when I was digging for baseball stats in, say, 2006 or whenever, it was a lot of work to find that stuff. I don't want to go thru that again. I'm guessing that PDO, etc. will gradually find more mainstream recognition, and I'll see it bubble up in the coming years. I'm probably ahead of most hockey fans in understanding this stuff, but I'm not at the top of the class. I can live with that. For now.

I agree, I don't have the time to immerse myself in the details and variations of everything that's being developed now. Basically what i've learned is just from following a lot of smart people on twitter.

And other than measuring a team's overall performance when a player is and isn't on the ice, there just isn't that much data to manipulate, without the repeated static events like baseball. Although the NHL following the NBA into motion capture and chip technology, so that might be interesting.

if you've got time and coffee...this is pretty crazy analysis:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/exam ... ck-season/

mister d wrote:And both of those stats will go away within a few years assuming shot quality can be proven.

Also, as mister d alluded to, these stats are still new and being worked out, not entirely reliable yet. It's hard to know what to trust.

In baseball, defense was virtually ignored the first few years of this stuff because it was hard to track. Then it was tracked, some defensive stats were developed, but the best ones seem to change every year.

I agree, I don't have the time to immerse myself in the details and variations of everything that's being developed now. Basically what i've learned is just from following a lot of smart people on twitter.

Yeah, I'll let people with more time and brain capacity do the heavy lifting. If I passively learn anything from them, great.

brian wrote:

govmentchedda wrote:

brian wrote:I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

Were there issues last year? My memory is fuzzy. The Tampa crowd is usually pretty reverent for the Canadian anthem.

Oh, I'm not specifically calling out Tampa fans. I just have a feeling something's going to happen.

Well, they swept us in the playoffs last year, and we swept them in the regular season this year. There's definitely "history" there on the ice. Recent "history" anyways.

brian wrote:I predict there's going to be at least one (and probably more) National Anthem-related kerfuffles in that Tampa-Montreal second round series.

As the lone full time Sens fan here in the Swamp, I feel compelled to challenge your assumption. No doubt Montreal wins most side-by-side comparisons but Ottawa has the one thing you want this time of year...goaltending. If Hammond folds under the pressure, a healthy Craig Anderson is ready to come in. Price is the better goalie overall but the Montreal media will happily pounce at the first signs of failure. The Sens have gone away from the Chris Neil/Chris Phillips 'agitate the fuck out of you and hope to draw penalties' strategy this year and are just a good hard working club. Series will go at least six but will be far from a cakewalk, especially if Bobby Ryan starts earning that contract.

bolded part below is the reason that for the first time in their post-Laurie Boschmann existence i actually don't hate the franchise. in fact, they're damn fun to watch. i think they should be favoured in this one (slightly, as in all series this year).

(my dream finals would be Winnipeg v Ottawa.)

Rams Fanny wrote: As the lone full time Sens fan here in the Swamp, I feel compelled to challenge your assumption. No doubt Montreal wins most side-by-side comparisons but Ottawa has the one thing you want this time of year...goaltending. If Hammond folds under the pressure, a healthy Craig Anderson is ready to come in. Price is the better goalie overall but the Montreal media will happily pounce at the first signs of failure. The Sens have gone away from the Chris Neil/Chris Phillips 'agitate the fuck out of you and hope to draw penalties' strategy this year and are just a good hard working club. Series will go at least six but will be far from a cakewalk, especially if Bobby Ryan starts earning that contract.

sancarlos wrote:

Rex wrote:Ohio State, New England Patriots, Duke, Chelsea, ______________, San Antonio Spurs


what hockey team completes that sequence?

Based on fans and media attention, I think it would be Toronto, if they were any good. But, they aren't. Boston or LA might qualify, but they missed the playoffs. Soo... [scratches head...]

A little late to this, but Detroit? Maybe if this was asked five years ago?

Feeling very wistful, today. For the past 11 years, this is a day I would be very nervous and jumpy as the Sharks would be playing game one of the playoffs (and my wife would say to me, 'Oh for god's sake, it's just a hockey game.'). As a hockey fan, in general, I'm still very interested, but without any strong rooting interest. It's weird... I guess this is what it's like to be a Browns fan.

sancarlos wrote:Feeling very wistful, today. For the past 11 years, this is a day I would be very nervous and jumpy as the Sharks would be playing game one of the playoffs (and my wife would say to me, 'Oh for god's sake, it's just a hockey game.'). As a hockey fan, in general, I'm still very interested, but without any strong rooting interest. It's weird... I guess this is what it's like to be a Browns fan.

Well, except for the 11 years of being in the playoffs in a row part.

Jackass.

sancarlos wrote:Feeling very wistful, today.

Just the opposite here. I haven't watched as much hockey this year than usual, but I'm starting to feel a little something this morning. When I get home tonight, I'm going to watch Ovechkin vs. Tavares in the playoffs. How cool is that?

And my hometown optimism is starting to get the best of me. Now I'm thinking that Penguins might win a game or two in their series vs. the Rangers.

I love playoff hockey.

and to me this day is the best - first round is unparalleled.

everyone and their grandmother walking around in Canucks green and blue today; even saw an old school Bure (shit...i just realized i referred to 1993/4 as old school. ffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuu......)

Red everywhere here. We get to wear jerseys to work on game days.

And speaking of Corsi the Flames are awful but led the world in blocked shots.
Flames never have possession, it's on and off their stick very quickly.

Should have mentioned the game midconduct to Bure guy, see if that one still stings 21 years later.

Islanders go up quick and seem to be taking it have the chances in the first 12 minutes (including a weak penalty against Fehr)

wlu_lax6 wrote:Islanders go up quick and seem to be taking it have the chances in the first 12 minutes (including a weak penalty against Fehr)

Milbury hates Halak. But Halak is a better goalie than Milbury was a coach, or is an analyst.

6 goals in the first 13 minutes in Montreal?

Ottawa-Montreal picking up where they left off a few years ago with the big playoff brawl.. Tonight ended very chippy.

Subban got tossed on a questionable slash that Mark Stone totally embellished on, but P.K. Has done that a few times. That's only going to make this series better to watch.

This has been a fun OT in the NSH-CHI game.