Fantasy Football Advice 2016

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:21 am

My 14-team non-PPR league is introducing keepers for the first time. Rule is you have to give up the pick two rounds ahead of where the player was taken in the previous draft. I've spent the entire offseason thinking Luck was my guy as he'd cost me a second rounder. Our drafts are QB heavy in the first few rounds (5 pts per TD, 7 taken in first 4 rounds last year, including 3 in first) so he'll be taken in the first for sure. Now after starting to do a little research for the upcoming season, I'm questioning my decision. Here are the only ones I'd consider keeping and the pick I'd give up:

Luck - 2nd
L. Miller - 3rd
C. Hyde - 6th
Charles Johnson - 15th
T. Kelce - 15th

I'm starting to buy into the Kelce hype and leaning towards him. He's consensus top-5 TE from the rankings I've seen, so it seems much better value to have him with a 15th (not to mention a 13th next year, 11th the next, if he's as good as advertised and stays healthy) and keep my second rounder. Thoughts?

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:00 pm

Giff wrote:My 14-team non-PPR league is introducing keepers for the first time. Rule is you have to give up the pick two rounds ahead of where the player was taken in the previous draft. I've spent the entire offseason thinking Luck was my guy as he'd cost me a second rounder. Our drafts are QB heavy in the first few rounds (5 pts per TD, 7 taken in first 4 rounds last year, including 3 in first) so he'll be taken in the first for sure. Now after starting to do a little research for the upcoming season, I'm questioning my decision. Here are the only ones I'd consider keeping and the pick I'd give up:

Luck - 2nd
L. Miller - 3rd
C. Hyde - 6th
Charles Johnson - 15th
T. Kelce - 15th

I'm starting to buy into the Kelce hype and leaning towards him. He's consensus top-5 TE from the rankings I've seen, so it seems much better value to have him with a 15th (not to mention a 13th next year, 11th the next, if he's as good as advertised and stays healthy) and keep my second rounder. Thoughts?

So, can you only keep one player? I think you have to keep Luck. Keep in mind 13 other players will be kept at an exceptional value, so the players drafted in round 2 will be less valuable than second round picks in a non-keeper league.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:12 pm

Correct, only one player. Most people are telling me to do that, so I guess I should stick with my first instinct.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:15 pm

Do you know where in the round you pick?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:32 pm

Without knowing football but really enjoying spreadsheets and shit, I think the answer is Hyde and I think it might be a no-brainer.

ESPN: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/sto ... kings-2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you go by $ value and not just expected round minus cost round, Hyde returns by far the most value.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:41 pm

mister d wrote:Do you know where in the round you pick?

All I know is I won't pick 1st. The consolation bracket winner gets that pick.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:53 pm

Giff wrote:
mister d wrote:Do you know where in the round you pick?
All I know is I won't pick 1st. The consolation bracket winner gets that pick.

Hyde if you've got a crack to draft high and nab Manning/Luck/Brady/Rodgers

If not, Luck is a no brainer. Haven't seen a lot of fantasy teams in the last 5 years win the league starting Romo or Fitzpatrick.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:01 pm

Last season, either Cutler or Alex Smith beat Romo in ours in the finals.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:11 pm

Eli won our league last year.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:13 pm

mister d wrote:Last season, either Cutler or Alex Smith beat Romo in ours in the finals.

4 or 6pts for passing TDs? Bonuses for big yardage games?

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:17 pm

We do 5 pts and you get extra points based on passing yardage on TDs.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:23 pm

Giff wrote:We do 5 pts and you get extra points based on passing yardage on TDs.

Welp I finished 9/12 in my league last year.

Wilson and Dalton.

Make of that what you will. If you keep Luck this year is he gone next year or do you give up a 1st rounder for him?

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:24 pm

I could use some keeper advice, too. 10 team league. We can keep 0-4 keepers, losing a draft pick based on previous draft position. 3 year max, original draft position ("ODP") minus 1 in year one, ODP minus 3 in year 2, ODP minus 5 year 3.

Round 1: I have to decide between Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. I love Brown and wouldn't even debate it, but I also have Le'Veon Bell, and hate having 2 key players on the same team. There are very few 1st round worthy players available in the first round, so keeping one of these guys is must.

Round 8: Bell. Nobody wanted to touch him as a rookie coming in injured, expected to miss the first 4 or 5 games, so I got a steal.

Round 11: Jeremy Hill

So I have 3 definite keeps, do I choose a 4th? If so, who?

Round 7: Mike Evans
Round 10: Tony Romo

I'm thinking it has to be Evans, but I don't trust rookie QBs, especially ones with major off-field issues. I don't like Romo, but 10th round isn't a bad place to get him. This league i not as QB heavy as most, so I'm thinking fuck Romo.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:28 pm

A roster would have to be impossibly bad to not keep 4, right?

Post by **Sabo** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:29 pm

Do you know who you're going to keep in the OFL league you're in with me and DSG? Pretty pathetic that we can keep three players and I'm struggling on deciding who to keep. Hell, I'm giving some consideration to keeping Flacco. That's how shit my team is.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:38 pm

mister d wrote:A roster would have to be impossibly bad to not keep 4, right?

Not necessarily. You can only keep a player for 3 years, so studs get tossed back. You also run into issues of multiple players costing the same round. If you have 2 first rounders, you can only keep one. If you have 2 second rounders, you can bump one up to a first round. Often, it isn't worth keeping both with the extra round bump up.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:41 pm

Sabo wrote:Do you know who you're going to keep in the OFL league you're in with me and DSG? Pretty pathetic that we can keep three players and I'm struggling on deciding who to keep. Hell, I'm giving some consideration to keeping Flacco. That's how shit my team is.

Luck and DeMarco Murray are definite, and I am hoping to trade Russell Wilson for my third keeper. If I can't make a trade, I have to decide between keeping a second QB and Emmanuel Sanders.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:44 pm

For the first time in 8 years I'll be playing again. Just a $20 league with co-workers. I'll probably be asking questions in this thread once it gets going.

Team name: #FootballLivesMatter

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:46 pm

Johnnie wrote:For the first time in 8 years I'll be playing again. Just a $20 league with co-workers. I'll probably be asking questions in this thread once it gets going.

Team name: #FootballLivesMatter

Bironas Racing Experience

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:31 pm

BSF21 wrote:
Giff wrote:We do 5 pts and you get extra points based on passing yardage on TDs.
Welp I finished 9/12 in my league last year.

Wilson and Dalton.

Make of that what you will. If you keep Luck this year is he gone next year or do you give up a 1st rounder for him?

He's gone next year. Only 3rd rounders and up can be kept.

Our draft is my favorite thing about fantasy sports. Adding in the wrinkle where keepers aren't announced until right before the first round starts sounds fun.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:22 am

I just had my draft (had to do it early), and was faced with a decision of Hyde or Morris in the 3rd round. I hated both choices but went with Morris. Hyde went at the end of the round.

I took Kelce in the 7th and I love that pick. So I could see you going either way here. If all the QBs go early, that naturally assumes that the RBs are going later, so maybe you can push Hyde back the the 4th/5th round.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:27 am

The Sybian wrote:I could use some keeper advice, too. 10 team league. We can keep 0-4 keepers, losing a draft pick based on previous draft position. 3 year max, original draft position ("ODP") minus 1 in year one, ODP minus 3 in year 2, ODP minus 5 year 3.

Round 1: I have to decide between Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. I love Brown and wouldn't even debate it, but I also have Le'Veon Bell, and hate having 2 key players on the same team. There are very few 1st round worthy players available in the first round, so keeping one of these guys is must.

Round 8: Bell. Nobody wanted to touch him as a rookie coming in injured, expected to miss the first 4 or 5 games, so I got a steal.

Round 11: Jeremy Hill

So I have 3 definite keeps, do I choose a 4th? If so, who?

Round 7: Mike Evans
Round 10: Tony Romo

I'm thinking it has to be Evans, but I don't trust rookie QBs, especially ones with major off-field issues. I don't like Romo, but 10th round isn't a bad place to get him. This league i not as QB heavy as most, so I'm thinking fuck Romo.

I took Mike Evans in the 2nd round and Matt Stafford in the 11th round. I think you'll have much better luck finding the QB later rather than the WR.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:53 am

Yeah, I won't know until stand up to grab the sticker of the guy I'm choosing. I wanted a clear-cut answer, but now I only have more options to ponder.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:57 am

Gunpowder wrote:I just had my draft (had to do it early), and was faced with a decision of Hyde or Morris in the 3rd round. I hated both choices but went with Morris. Hyde went at the end of the round.

I took Kelce in the 7th and I love that pick. So I could see you going either way here. If all the QBs go early, that naturally assumes that the RBs are going later, so maybe you can push Hyde back the the 4th/5th round.

I feel like after the top 2 TEs, it's a crapshoot. There are like 7 guys in the tier. The more I thought about it, Evans is a no brainer.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:59 am

Gunpowder wrote:I just had my draft (had to do it early), and was faced with a decision of Hyde or Morris in the 3rd round. I hated both choices but went with Morris. Hyde went at the end of the round.

I took Kelce in the 7th and I love that pick. So I could see you going either way here. If all the QBs go early, that naturally assumes that the RBs are going later, so maybe you can push Hyde back the the 4th/5th round.

But in a 14 team league, if you think Hyde is a lock starter, don't you have to pick him as a 6th? No way he's lasting into the 4th/5th.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:08 am

mister d wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:I just had my draft (had to do it early), and was faced with a decision of Hyde or Morris in the 3rd round. I hated both choices but went with Morris. Hyde went at the end of the round.

I took Kelce in the 7th and I love that pick. So I could see you going either way here. If all the QBs go early, that naturally assumes that the RBs are going later, so maybe you can push Hyde back the the 4th/5th round.
But in a 14 team league, if you think Hyde is a lock starter, don't you have to pick him as a 6th? No way he's lasting into the 4th/5th.

True. Though I have fear of Hyde being a fantasy cancer in the Shonn Greene mold, a guy that isn't that effective but you have to start him anyway. Those guys are the worst.

Kelce is an absolute lock starter. I think he may end up as the #2 fantasy TE.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:09 am

The Sybian wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:I just had my draft (had to do it early), and was faced with a decision of Hyde or Morris in the 3rd round. I hated both choices but went with Morris. Hyde went at the end of the round.

I took Kelce in the 7th and I love that pick. So I could see you going either way here. If all the QBs go early, that naturally assumes that the RBs are going later, so maybe you can push Hyde back the the 4th/5th round.
I feel like after the top 2 TEs, it's a crapshoot. There are like 7 guys in the tier. The more I thought about it, Evans is a no brainer.

I think the tiers go:

GRONKOWSKIS
Rob Gronkowski

SUB-GRONKOWSKIS
Jimmy Graham

Tier 3
Kelce

Tier 4
Like 7 guys

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:17 am

Gunpowder wrote:True. Though I have fear of Hyde being a fantasy cancer in the Shonn Greene mold, a guy that isn't that effective but you have to start him anyway. Those guys are the worst.

Kelce is an absolute lock starter. I think he may end up as the #2 fantasy TE.

Yeah, I have no idea about the merits of either on talent, this is just a pure scarcity play. Fantasy needs to go to team RBs over individuals.

devilfluff · Post by **devilfluff** » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:50 pm

My primary league is so odd.

10 team dynasty league(up to 10 keepers) with full auction & $300 salary cap. Cap holds for free agent pick ups and Tuesday is FA auction day. Keepers cost $2 more than last year, with unlimited roster length.

The most expensive player on any roster is Melvin Gordon. You couldn't touch a rookie RB with a legitimate chance to start for under $30.

I kept Jamaal Charles for $34, then spent $39 for TJ Yeldon...

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:55 pm

The Sybian wrote:I could use some keeper advice, too. 10 team league. We can keep 0-4 keepers, losing a draft pick based on previous draft position. 3 year max, original draft position ("ODP") minus 1 in year one, ODP minus 3 in year 2, ODP minus 5 year 3.

Round 1: I have to decide between Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. I love Brown and wouldn't even debate it, but I also have Le'Veon Bell, and hate having 2 key players on the same team. There are very few 1st round worthy players available in the first round, so keeping one of these guys is must.

Round 8: Bell. Nobody wanted to touch him as a rookie coming in injured, expected to miss the first 4 or 5 games, so I got a steal.

Round 11: Jeremy Hill

So I have 3 definite keeps, do I choose a 4th? If so, who?

Round 7: Mike Evans
Round 10: Tony Romo

I'm thinking it has to be Evans, but I don't trust rookie QBs, especially ones with major off-field issues. I don't like Romo, but 10th round isn't a bad place to get him. This league i not as QB heavy as most, so I'm thinking fuck Romo.

I would go with Evans. Eventhough he has a rookie QB, its an upgrade over whoever the hell was under center last year.

Evans has consistently gone in the 2nd round in my dynasty leagues. Romo is easily replaceable.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:57 pm

Giff wrote:My 14-team non-PPR league is introducing keepers for the first time. Rule is you have to give up the pick two rounds ahead of where the player was taken in the previous draft. I've spent the entire offseason thinking Luck was my guy as he'd cost me a second rounder. Our drafts are QB heavy in the first few rounds (5 pts per TD, 7 taken in first 4 rounds last year, including 3 in first) so he'll be taken in the first for sure. Now after starting to do a little research for the upcoming season, I'm questioning my decision. Here are the only ones I'd consider keeping and the pick I'd give up:

Luck - 2nd
L. Miller - 3rd
C. Hyde - 6th
Charles Johnson - 15th
T. Kelce - 15th

I'm starting to buy into the Kelce hype and leaning towards him. He's consensus top-5 TE from the rankings I've seen, so it seems much better value to have him with a 15th (not to mention a 13th next year, 11th the next, if he's as good as advertised and stays healthy) and keep my second rounder. Thoughts?

Kelce is a bargain as a 15th rounder. Everyone else is pretty close to their average draft position. Can't go wrong with Luck either - he will go in the 1st round guaranteed.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:41 pm

My primary league (which I'm in with DevilFluff) does a hybrid, with the first five picks auctioned on a $100 budget. With 10 or 12 teams we're looking at 50 or 60 players. 1/2 PPR. Guys who would be 1st round picks usually go for about $50 to $55, 5th rounds for a couple of dollars.

It's not uncommon in the first casting round to throw out a name of a dude who you might like for the right price but more to bleed money out of owners. Sometimes even the top guy at a slot, in the hopes that the #2 or 3 guy would be able to closely match for less cost (Luck for $44 as opposed to Rodgers at $52). Maybe guys who might underperform by a tick their value. Any suggestions? I'm thinking Beckham and Antonio Brown might underperform just a little bit. I'm also thinking Murray, considering most of the guys are Eagles fans.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:43 am

Put it in the wrong thread - so, here:

#1 overall pick in a dynasty keeper league - the rookie RB in san diego or mini-Barry Sanders in Detroit?

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:56 pm

Rookies only?

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:06 pm

No, but at nine keepers a team and 14 teams, that's effectively a rookies draft in first few rounds.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:51 am

Teams have gotten pretty smart about drafting RBs high in the 1st, right? If so, I'd take one of the RBs taken high in the first and assume that's some reflection of talent and the franchise commitment to them.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:52 am

And it's 2015 this year.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:55 am

mister d wrote:Teams have gotten pretty smart about drafting RBs high in the 1st, right? If so, I'd take one of the RBs taken high in the first and assume that's some reflection of talent and the franchise commitment to them.

Last one they took high was Ryan Mathews. Looking back over the last 5 years, first round means nothing for RBs. It's like, Matthews, David Wilson, Doug Martin and Ingram. So you could possibly rephrase it as "only dumb teams would actually draft a running back that high".

Go perceived ability and team over draft selection, IMO. Doesn't mean Abdullah is the best fit but I wouldn't draft Gordon just for the pedigree.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:03 am

I'm gonna pick a great team this year.

Post by **Sabo** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:14 am

I could use some input on my keepers for the OFL league I'm in with DSafe and Sybian. The league is a non-PPR league with a snake draft. I have the second pick in the draft, and we can keep three players. The only for certain player I'm keeping is Jeremy Hill.

QBs: Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Johnny Manziel
RB: Jeremy Hill, Shane Vereen, Travaris Cadet, Knile Davis
WR: Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, Brandon LaFell, Taylor Gabriel, Pierre Garcon
TE: Julius Thomas
D: Detroit, Dallas
K: Steven Hauschka

What sucks the most is that the few talented players I have are in bad situations. Julius Thomas went from arguably the best QB in the league to one of the worst, and almost all of my receivers are either declining or have crap QBs throwing to them. It's so bad I'm considering keeping a defense as one of my keepers. That's pretty awful.