Joaquin

[rass]

We're about a day away from people FREAKING out around here if the forecasts continue to point towards the Mid-Atlantic. Even without the storm we're due to get a crapload of rain the next couple of days, so flooding will be a real concern. My wife is flying down to Florida tomorrow and is due to fly back on Sunday (and then fly to Seattle for a two-Dave-some early next week*). We'll see.

*nope, that's next week...oops

[howard]

You can sum up everything about hurricanes in one word: youneverknow.

[Rex]

Alas, there are no good songs with "Joaquin" in the lyrics. Wait, what am I talking about?




Just needs to move a little farther west.

[howard]

even further west

[howard]

via swamper rex

[tennbengal]

I don't usually advertise my weather nerdiness around here, but everything points to this being out to sea. The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along. Every other model suite until last night has been showing a landfall somewhere from the Outer Banks up to Jersey shore. Last night, the other models caved to the Euro idea - the trough (incoming cold front) will kick it clear rather than capture the hurricane and draw it into the coast. Hopefully that's how it goes down, kicked clear rather than drawn in. Today should really make it clear.

When Sandy was brewing, the Euro was on an island by itself showing it a threat to the seaboard when everything else was out to sea for most part. This time around, hoping Euro is right again, as a few of the scenarios being kicked around were really bad for my backyard.

[Steve of phpBB]

That's pretty impressive weather nerdiness.

[mister d]

The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along.

You think its bad modeling here or a desire for news?

[Ryan]

[tennbengal]

The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along.

You think its bad modeling here or a desire for news?

No modeling is "bad" per se - the american (GFS), UKMET, and canadian (CMC) all do fine too - but it doesn't take too much to change variables that impact a model's handling of a storm in this particular atmospheric set-up. The Euro appears (as of now) to have done a better job at "seeing" the strengthening hurricane - which is a key in leading to the potential OTS (out to sea) solution. Euro always deepened the hurricane more rapidly in its modeling than the other global models, which in turn meant the hurricane lingered far enough south that it missed the trough catching it and instead kicked it. The other models didn't strengthen it quite as much, which in turn allowed them to show the storm coming north and inland. As it stands, Euro appears (once again) to have had the better handle on things. As for media playing it up - I can't blame them. All the model suites other than Euro were inland, we are not THAT far out, and you have to raise awareness early enough for people to be ready. Other issue is the Euro only runs twice a day, and the American (GFS long range model) and NAM - short range model) run four times a day, so you have extra time opportunity to obsess over their modeling (which amateurs and pros do) - which adds to the noise. When there is a such a split between models, kinda adds to the fun. But when it comes to model "wars" - where the Euro is different from most other guidance, when it comes to east coast systems, the Euro has been a better bet (it's frankly a better model - more money poured into its development - runs at a higher resolution - its a place where US is getting its ass kicked in the science world). Euro also seems anecdotally to handle modeling in El Nino years better. GFS has been pretty good last few years in a more progressive weather pattern - but El Ninos tend to be accompanied by high pressure blocks in the northern atlantic and Euro has been pretty damn dependable in those set-ups.

In any event, as it stands, hoping for the continued out to sea drift to things. It's a sizeable storm, really don't need that inland all things considered.

Weather nerding digression over.

[A_B]

I feel like if you are gonna go all weather nerd, this is a pretty good thread to do so in.

[Rex]

Supposedly there is going to be outrageous rain no matter whether the storm hits land or not, so I think it's fair for this to get news attention.

[Pruitt]

I am very impressed by that display of meteorological expertise.

My sister in D.C. is this close to freaking the hell out about this storm. Think I'll fire off an email with Bengal's message. Might calm her down.

[Nonlinear FC]

I don't usually advertise my weather nerdiness around here, but everything points to this being out to sea. The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along. Every other model suite until last night has been showing a landfall somewhere from the Outer Banks up to Jersey shore. Last night, the other models caved to the Euro idea - the trough (incoming cold front) will kick it clear rather than capture the hurricane and draw it into the coast. Hopefully that's how it goes down, kicked clear rather than drawn in. Today should really make it clear.

When Sandy was brewing, the Euro was on an island by itself showing it a threat to the seaboard when everything else was out to sea for most part. This time around, hoping Euro is right again, as a few of the scenarios being kicked around were really bad for my backyard.

For a bunch of reasons (work + coaching soccer... so, I guess only two) I pay a lot of attention to the weather, too. My go to is Capital Weather Gang, who happened to be one of the only sources to completely nail the double-whammy of Snowmeggedon a few years back.

I'm also paying close attention to the timing, because I have tickets to the game in College Park Saturday night. There was some preliminary discussion around moving it to earlier in the day, but it's BTN's prime time game and I'm sure they'd really rather not mess with it.

[tennbengal]

I don't usually advertise my weather nerdiness around here, but everything points to this being out to sea. The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along. Every other model suite until last night has been showing a landfall somewhere from the Outer Banks up to Jersey shore. Last night, the other models caved to the Euro idea - the trough (incoming cold front) will kick it clear rather than capture the hurricane and draw it into the coast. Hopefully that's how it goes down, kicked clear rather than drawn in. Today should really make it clear.

When Sandy was brewing, the Euro was on an island by itself showing it a threat to the seaboard when everything else was out to sea for most part. This time around, hoping Euro is right again, as a few of the scenarios being kicked around were really bad for my backyard.

For a bunch of reasons (work + coaching soccer... so, I guess only two) I pay a lot of attention to the weather, too. My go to is Capital Weather Gang, who happened to be one of the only sources to completely nail the double-whammy of Snowmeggedon a few years back.

I'm also paying close attention to the timing, because I have tickets to the game in College Park Saturday night. There was some preliminary discussion around moving it to earlier in the day, but it's BTN's prime time game and I'm sure they'd really rather not mess with it.

Many of the CWG guys are very active at American Wx in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Good crew, very reasonable in their approach.

[L-Jam3]

My flight up to Logan for Jeopardy! tryouts this Tuesday is Sunday morning out of Philly, so if I have to drive up it'd be... really just an inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

[sancarlos]

My wife's father and brother in Missouri care more about the weather than anybody ought to care. I guess it is their farmer backgrounds. They watch the weather channel studiously, listen to the weather on the radio, keep the hawk eyes on their barometer, and then discuss it.

My wife has a bit of that in her, too. I never have to check the weather because I receive regular updates, whether I want them or not.

[Nonlinear FC]

I am very impressed by that display of meteorological expertise.

My sister in D.C. is this close to freaking the hell out about this storm. Think I'll fire off an email with Bengal's message. Might calm her down.

Send her here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ca ... ther-gang/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For now and forever more. They are reasonable (not hysterical like the local tv news is... ratings!!) and pragmatic... and most importantly, they are accurate.

As, tb stated, the issue is that this thing is still over 72 hours away and any HONEST person relaying weather news will tell you that outside of that 72 hour window, there are just too many variables in ANY forecast to have anything other than moderate confidence.

DC news/weather absolutely is built around hyping weather events. It's a weird thing, coming from a midwest background.

[mister d]

My flight up to Logan for Jeopardy! tryouts this Tuesday is Sunday morning out of Philly, so if I have to drive up it'd be... really just an inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

Amtrak.

[Steve of phpBB]

The Euro weather model, the undisputed king of east coast storm modeling (winter and tropical) has been steadfast in keeping it out to sea all along.

You think its bad modeling here or a desire for news?

No modeling is "bad" per se - the american (GFS), UKMET, and canadian (CMC) all do fine too - but it doesn't take too much to change variables that impact a model's handling of a storm in this particular atmospheric set-up. The Euro appears (as of now) to have done a better job at "seeing" the strengthening hurricane - which is a key in leading to the potential OTS (out to sea) solution. Euro always deepened the hurricane more rapidly in its modeling than the other global models, which in turn meant the hurricane lingered far enough south that it missed the trough catching it and instead kicked it. The other models didn't strengthen it quite as much, which in turn allowed them to show the storm coming north and inland. As it stands, Euro appears (once again) to have had the better handle on things. As for media playing it up - I can't blame them. All the model suites other than Euro were inland, we are not THAT far out, and you have to raise awareness early enough for people to be ready. Other issue is the Euro only runs twice a day, and the American (GFS long range model) and NAM - short range model) run four times a day, so you have extra time opportunity to obsess over their modeling (which amateurs and pros do) - which adds to the noise. When there is a such a split between models, kinda adds to the fun. But when it comes to model "wars" - where the Euro is different from most other guidance, when it comes to east coast systems, the Euro has been a better bet (it's frankly a better model - more money poured into its development - runs at a higher resolution - its a place where US is getting its ass kicked in the science world). Euro also seems anecdotally to handle modeling in El Nino years better. GFS has been pretty good last few years in a more progressive weather pattern - but El Ninos tend to be accompanied by high pressure blocks in the northern atlantic and Euro has been pretty damn dependable in those set-ups.

In any event, as it stands, hoping for the continued out to sea drift to things. It's a sizeable storm, really don't need that inland all things considered.

Weather nerding digression over.

I always considered myself a weather geek, but apparently I'm just a piker.

Anyway, I was thinking of going camping over Thanksgiving down at Zion N.P. Is it going to rain?

[L-Jam3]

My flight up to Logan for Jeopardy! tryouts this Tuesday is Sunday morning out of Philly, so if I have to drive up it'd be... really just an inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

Amtrak.

Amtrak is going to be a little issue for me:

[Rush2112]

[Ryan]

HULK SMASH INAPPROPRIATELY!

[Rex]

East coast bias is for real.

[howard]

My flight up to Logan for Jeopardy! tryouts this Tuesday is Sunday morning out of Philly, so if I have to drive up it'd be... really just an inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

Amtrak.

What he said. I'm departing Boston to go back home 1pm Sunday, so we will miss. Again, best of luck.

[Shirley]

That thing is a cat 4 now? That escalated quickly.

[A_B]

Don't go surfing unless you can really shred that shit.

[Pruitt]

This is not something you ever want to read.

In an Area Forecast Discussion released Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service's Greenville-Spartanburg office warned residents of a "Historic ... potentially life-threatening rainfall event expected this weekend" for northern South Carolina.

[BSF21]

This is not something you ever want to read.

In an Area Forecast Discussion released Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service's Greenville-Spartanburg office warned residents of a "Historic ... potentially life-threatening rainfall event expected this weekend" for northern South Carolina.

A day ago it wasn't going to hit according to the weathernerds. Did that change?

[Rush2112]

My wife's father and brother in Missouri care more about the weather than anybody ought to care. I guess it is their farmer backgrounds. They watch the weather channel studiously, listen to the weather on the radio, keep the hawk eyes on their barometer, and then discuss it.

My wife has a bit of that in her, too. I never have to check the weather because I receive regular updates, whether I want them or not.

My college roommate was a meteorologist in a past career. He's got 5-6 weather apps on his phone, tracks changes on his home weather instruments, rushes around to take pictures of any weather anomalies here in CO and also when he travels.

I'm friends on FB with a number of other meteorologists, they are a strange breed.

[govmentchedda]

This is not something you ever want to read.

In an Area Forecast Discussion released Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service's Greenville-Spartanburg office warned residents of a "Historic ... potentially life-threatening rainfall event expected this weekend" for northern South Carolina.

A day ago it wasn't going to hit according to the weathernerds. Did that change?

I think very heavy rain is still expected. Adjust your NCAAFB bets in the ACC and SEC accordingly.

[brian]

This is not something you ever want to read.

In an Area Forecast Discussion released Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service's Greenville-Spartanburg office warned residents of a "Historic ... potentially life-threatening rainfall event expected this weekend" for northern South Carolina.

A day ago it wasn't going to hit according to the weathernerds. Did that change?

I think very heavy rain is still expected. Adjust your NCAAFB bets in the ACC and SEC accordingly.

Too much is made of how rain affects totals. The public loves to bet under and the casinos hammer them. Bigger factor frankly is wind.

[tennbengal]

This is not something you ever want to read.

In an Area Forecast Discussion released Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service's Greenville-Spartanburg office warned residents of a "Historic ... potentially life-threatening rainfall event expected this weekend" for northern South Carolina.

A day ago it wasn't going to hit according to the weathernerds. Did that change?

No. Storm is heading out to sea. The rains in upstate SC and western NC that are potentially historic are associated with an upper level low currently over Georgia that is tapping a moisture fetch from gulf and some Atlantic influence. Not hurricane related at all.

[Rex]

Always Georgia's fault.

[Johnnie]

Can't stop laughing at this:

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