The NHL 2015-2016: Predictions, hopes, and Sedins

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:04 am

Less than a week until the season begins. What's going to happen this year? Who's going to win the Cup? How does your team look? Who do you want to watch? Where the hell did this rash come from? Is that a spider bite?

µ Top story for me this year is, not surprisingly, Connor McDavid. I'm a little nervous that he's entering the league at a bad time, tho. Clutching and grabbing have slowly wormed their way back into the game, and the top players are suffering. I can see McDavid putting up a 50-point season, then casual fans wondering what all of the hype was about.

I looked at NBC/NBC Sports' NHL schedule to see how many times the Oilers would be televised. As of now, they're on the schedule for one game. In March. This is so typical of the NHL. Hype this kid to the moon, then fail to capitalize on him.

µ Keeping with the young-boys narrative, my other team to watch this year is Glendale/Vegas/Quebec. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair will be there, and that's reason enough to watch. Not sure if Dylan Strome is going to make the team or not, but it looks like he has a decent chance. If he doesn't, then at least I'll get to see him play for the Erie Otters again, so I win either way.

µ The Penguins, as always, will be fun to watch, especially now that they have Phil Kessel. (I've been up and down on Jim Rutherford since he took over as GM, but that Kessel trade was a steal.) Can't wait to see what he can do with Crosby and/or Malkin. Also can't wait to see how long it takes before Penguins fans turn on him because he's not 'blue-collar' or 'lunchpail' enough, or whatever.

µ Will this finally be the Capitals' year? Will Calgary take a step back? Will the Lightning find room for Jonathan Drouin? How good is Columbus going to be? How bad is Boston going to be? What about Jack Eichel?

What say you, Swamp puckheads?

Post by **brian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:15 am

The Red Wings will make the playoffs.

(Actually, if any year in the next 5 or so is the year the streak ends it's probably this year. Working in a new coaching staff and finally transitioning to some of the prospects in the system getting more playing time. Unless Larkin, Mantha et al are busts which I don't think anyone thinks right now, this team could be better going forward after this year instead of sliding back like they have been since 2009.)

Post by **Sabo** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:16 am

bapo! wrote:I looked at NBC/NBC Sports' NHL schedule to see how many times the Oilers would be televised. As of now, they're on the schedule for one game. In March. This is so typical of the NHL. Hype this kid to the moon, then fail to capitalize on him.

Hey, they have to save all that air time to show the same eight teams every fucking night: Boston, NY Rangers, Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo and NJ Devils.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:33 am

Sabo wrote:
bapo! wrote:I looked at NBC/NBC Sports' NHL schedule to see how many times the Oilers would be televised. As of now, they're on the schedule for one game. In March. This is so typical of the NHL. Hype this kid to the moon, then fail to capitalize on him.
Hey, they have to save all that air time to show the same eight teams every fucking night: Boston, NY Rangers, Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo and NJ Devils.

In other words, the "C" in "NBC" does not stand for "Canada", bapo. In fact, I am pretty sure that in the official paperwork for the sports network, the acronym stands for "Need Better Content".

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:01 pm

bapo! wrote:Less than a week until the season begins. What's going to happen this year? Who's going to win the Cup? How does your team look? Who do you want to watch? Where the hell did this rash come from? Is that a spider bite?

µ Top story for me this year is, not surprisingly, Connor McDavid. I'm a little nervous that he's entering the league at a bad time, tho. Clutching and grabbing have slowly wormed their way back into the game, and the top players are suffering. I can see McDavid putting up a 50-point season, then casual fans wondering what all of the hype was about.

I looked at NBC/NBC Sports' NHL schedule to see how many times the Oilers would be televised. As of now, they're on the schedule for one game. In March. This is so typical of the NHL. Hype this kid to the moon, then fail to capitalize on him.

µ Keeping with the young-boys narrative, my other team to watch this year is Glendale/Vegas/Quebec. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair will be there, and that's reason enough to watch. Not sure if Dylan Strome is going to make the team or not, but it looks like he has a decent chance. If he doesn't, then at least I'll get to see him play for the Erie Otters again, so I win either way.

µ The Penguins, as always, will be fun to watch, especially now that they have Phil Kessel. (I've been up and down on Jim Rutherford since he took over as GM, but that Kessel trade was a steal.) Can't wait to see what he can do with Crosby and/or Malkin. Also can't wait to see how long it takes before Penguins fans turn on him because he's not 'blue-collar' or 'lunchpail' enough, or whatever.

µ Will this finally be the Capitals' year? Will Calgary take a step back? Will the Lightning find room for Jonathan Drouin? How good is Columbus going to be? How bad is Boston going to be? What about Jack Eichel?

What say you, Swamp puckheads?

I'm big on Eichel, with no reason to be, other than speculation that he's got a McDavid sized chip on his shoulder. I'm also huge on Drouin. He's been skating with Stamkos and Callahan, and if they keep that together, he's going to have tons of points.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:20 pm

Very important predictions (mostly about the East because I don't know shit about the West) ...

1. Tampa Bay will be very good but not runaway good and its going to be because of Bishop.

2. Rangers will be a 5-8 seed playoff team, not 1-4.

3. Washington won't make the playoffs.

4. Columbus will.

5. Calgary definitely won't.

6. Boston will back into the 3rd Atlantic spot.

7. Toronto will miss the playoffs but give up 40 less goals against.

8. Montreal will finish with the most points in the conference.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:21 pm

I am getting excited for the season. Last night's Swamp fantasy draft got my hockey jones going (despite Diamond and Ryan taking the guys I wanted...).

I got tickets to see the Oilers in San Jose in February, because of McDavid (and Todd McLellan.) C'mon out for the game, Bapo!

I am cautiously optimistic about the Sharks. It depends a lot on the new goalie, Martin Jones. I am praying for him. Paul Martin should be a godsend, and a great D partner for the exciting, talented, but defensively-challenged Brent Burns. What do you Eastern guys think of Joel Ward? Looks like he will be on the second line with Couture and Marleau. I am looking for big years from Joe Thornton and The Big Pavelski on the top line. The bottom end was weak but looks improved.

I think the surprise teams will be Nashville and Detroit. Both have great young talent ready to bloom. I think Calgary will crash (sorry, Degen.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:22 pm

Ward is slooowww. He's a guy you want popping more than expected in the bottom 6, not having an 18 goal floor in the top 6. That's a bad sign.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:51 pm

mister d wrote:Ward is slooowww. He's a guy you want popping more than expected in the bottom 6, not having an 18 goal floor in the top 6. That's a bad sign.

Heart and Soul guy. Enjoyed having him on the Caps. When the big names were cold (Ovie, Backstrom, etc), he would step up. Equally glad they Caps did not pay him free agent money this off season as he is old.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:40 pm

govmentchedda wrote:I'm also huge on Drouin. He's been skating with Stamkos and Callahan, and if they keep that together, he's going to have tons of points.

Drouin could be a huge star. Tampa was scary enough without him. Would love to see him and Stamkos do some damage this year.

Jordan Eberle has hurt his shoulder and is going to miss a few weeks. That's the first official pin-prick of the Oilers season. Getting started early.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:57 pm

Fucking Oiler snaked Drouin from me last night in the fantasy draft. My source for fantasy stats wasn't so high on him, but I think he's going to be crazy good this year.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:19 pm

sancarlos wrote:I got tickets to see the Oilers in San Jose in February, because of McDavid (and Todd McLellan.) C'mon out for the game, Bapo!

Don't joke about this because I might just show up at your door.

I haven't added the hockey blogs to my daily rotation yet. Any early word on the 18- and 19-year-olds? Anybody from this year's draft other than McDavid and Eichel (and maybe Strome) expected to stick? What about last year's? Sam Reinhart in Buffalo? Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg?

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:20 pm

bapo! wrote:
sancarlos wrote:I got tickets to see the Oilers in San Jose in February, because of McDavid (and Todd McLellan.) C'mon out for the game, Bapo!
Don't joke about this because I might just show up at your door.

I haven't added the hockey blogs to my daily rotation yet. Any early word on the 18- and 19-year-olds? Anybody from this year's draft other than McDavid and Eichel (and maybe Strome) expected to stick? What about last year's? Sam Reinhart in Buffalo? Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg?

I love the Bolt Prospects blog/podcast. It is right up your junior and minor hockey loving alley bapo!, except its mostly about Bolt Prospects, (duh).

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:23 pm

I wonder if Noah Hanifan will stick with Carolina?

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:22 am

Calgary will be better with Hamilton and Frolik but goaltending is still a huge question mark.

Prediction: 2nd in the Pacific

Diamond · Post by **Diamond** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:48 am

bapo! wrote: I haven't added the hockey blogs to my daily rotation yet. Any early word on the 18- and 19-year-olds? Anybody from this year's draft other than McDavid and Eichel (and maybe Strome) expected to stick? What about last year's? Sam Reinhart in Buffalo? Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg?

Reinhart is looking good to stick in Buffalo, most likely on the wing.

I'm psyched for this season, of course. So many high-profile additions. Expectations are modest, but the turnover, both on the ice and behind the bench is so significant that I'm reluctant to rule out making a run at the playoffs. I wouldn't mind putting some $ on Bylsma winning the Jack Adams.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:28 am

degenerasian wrote:Calgary will be better with Hamilton and Frolik but goaltending is still a huge question mark.

Prediction: 2nd in the Pacific

See: Avalanche, Colorado

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:31 am

mister d wrote:
degenerasian wrote:Calgary will be better with Hamilton and Frolik but goaltending is still a huge question mark.

Prediction: 2nd in the Pacific
See: Avalanche, Colorado

Last year, the Flames won a lot of games, despite low possession numbers, and because of extremely high shooting percentage. As mister d alluded, the Avs had a similar pattern season before last, and fell hard last year.
eta: Having said that, the Flames have a great defense and a few really good young players, so...

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:33 am

I've got some numbers coming. Try to keep it in your pants.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:29 am

My fucking laptop shut off. Short version ... they aren't as drastic as Colorado because they weren't as good as Colorado (total points) but their FF% points to a big drop in total points this coming season.

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:33 am

bapo! wrote:
I haven't added the hockey blogs to my daily rotation yet. Any early word on the 18- and 19-year-olds? Anybody from this year's draft other than McDavid and Eichel (and maybe Strome) expected to stick? What about last year's? Sam Reinhart in Buffalo? Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg?

Ehlers looks like he has a 3rd line spot locked up. I think the wear of a full season playing against men is going to slow him down for stretches (he's tiny) but he's so fast and has such good hands he should do pretty well in the Jets up-tempo attack. Nick Petan (2013 draft) is having a great camp and may stick with the team. Also tiny, but an amazing playmaker - Ladd compared him to Patrick Kane with his passing ability.

My must watch team this year is Pittsburgh. I have no idea how that team exists, it feels like they must be working under a different salary cap than everyone else.
My bold predictions for the year:
-Montreal misses the playoffs (4th in Atlantic but Metro gets both wild cards).
-Nashville and Vancouver drop out of the playoffs in the west, replaced by LA and Dallas
-Pens-Capitals in Eastern Conference Final (it's epic).
-Anaheim over Pittsburgh for the Cup.
-Stamkos stays in Tampa, New Jersey wins the draft lottery.

Oh and Vegas and Quebec are both granted expansion teams, despite the supposed public reservations the league seems to have (with only two bids, they do not have the leverage they thought they would, and are trying to pretend like they don't want a billion dolllars).

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:35 am

mister d wrote:My fucking laptop shut off. Short version ... they aren't as drastic as Colorado because they weren't as good as Colorado (total points) but their FF% points to a big drop in total points this coming season.

What Calgary does have going for them compared to Colorado last year is that they did at least improve their roster, and they play in a garbage division. 3rd in the Pacific is going to end up being a not-good team, and Calgary is at least good enough to be not-good.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:52 am

Seeing mixed reaction about Washington. Who have they added? I know they lost Mike Green to DET. I've never been impressed with them other than Ovi and Backstrom.

Mr. D says they miss, Trav says ECF. What's your take boys?

Also, we're 23 replies down and I haven't seen Chicago mentioned once. They're going to contend again, and they are super deep at Rockford.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:19 am

I like the Caps additions (and don't care about losing Green), I just think that defense beyond Carlson is gross. And I wouldn't actually bet even odds on them missing, but I wouldn't be surprised either so I'm cheating by predicting it.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:20 am

BSF21 wrote:Seeing mixed reaction about Washington. Who have they added? I know they lost Mike Green to DET. I've never been impressed with them other than Ovi and Backstrom.

Mr. D says they miss, Trav says ECF. What's your take boys?

Also, we're 23 replies down and I haven't seen Chicago mentioned once. They're going to contend again, and they are super deep at Rockford.

For a Cup winner, Chicago has had some turnover. I think some of their kids, such as Teuvo Teravainen and Marko Dano could be good scorers.
I don't know why people are down on Washington. They've still got Ovechkin, Backstrom (in a couple weeks), Holtby and Carlson. That's a great start.
I don't think the Pacific division is going to be horrible. The Ducks are really good. The Sharks should be much better, same for the Kings and Stars. The Flames and Canucks will be respectable. Edmonton looks much better up front, but I think they are still a tire fire on defense and Cam Talbot won't be the answer in goal. And, Arizona is Arizona.

eta: just remembered that Dallas isn't in this division with the California teams anymore. brain cramp.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:29 am

mister d wrote:I like the Caps additions (and don't care about losing Green), I just think that defense beyond Carlson is gross. And I wouldn't actually bet even odds on them missing, but I wouldn't be surprised either so I'm cheating by predicting it.

I really think this is the year that Columbus makes the jump to the big time. Saad was a huge addition and they've made right smart pickups for several years now.

They also have the coolest 3rd jersey in the fucking world.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:33 am

I think a lot of it is their dependence on Ovechkin and his line; if they aren't scoring, the team is (very) beatable. Seems to be their recipe for playoff exit year after year after year.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:35 am

mister d wrote:I think a lot of it is their dependence on Ovechkin and his line; if they aren't scoring, the team is (very) beatable. Seems to be their recipe for playoff exit year after year after year.

Funny how for the past ten years, Washington has been San Jose-east, and vice versa. Same main issue usually - a weak bottom six forwards.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:36 am

BSF21 wrote:Also, we're 23 replies down and I haven't seen Chicago mentioned once. They're going to contend again, and they are super deep at Rockford.

Was just going to jump in with them. I think the Hawks aren't going to be able to come back like they did after 2013, but I do think and hope it'll be better than after 2010.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:37 am

(Since 2010, they're last among playoff teams in goals per game with 1.9. So that (plus some bias from seemingly watching them every year) is where I'm coming from. Of course, Holtby has been great so if the offense returns and Holtby stays the same, maybe that'll all just end up being a SSS anomaly and I'll look like a dumb shit.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:38 am

sancarlos wrote:Funny how for the past ten years, Washington has been San Jose-east, and vice versa. Same main issue usually - a weak bottom six forwards.

And it got weaker this year, although that's probably a decent trade off when you're upgrading your top 6.

(Also ... fucking Tom Wilson. Seems like he could be exactly the type of guy every team wants in terms of tough while still skilled but he simply can't avoid being a cheapshot, perpetually baitable idiot on the ice.)

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:38 am

No particular order

EAST:
MON
PIT
DET
NYR
NYI
CBUS
WAS
BOS

West:
CHI
MIN
NSH
CGY
ANA
STL
DAL
VAN/LAK can't decide.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:41 am

Tampa goes from the Cup final to missing the playoffs?

Bold.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:42 am

‡ Looking over rosters now to remind myself who went where over the summer, and I am officially excited about hockey season. Next week, the NHL season opens, the baseball playoffs begin, and it will be full-time Henley weather. Life is good.

‡ The Blackhawks are the Blackhawks. I'll expect them to be very good until proven otherwise. Losing Saad will hurt, but Teravainen could make a big leap this year. (I don't even want to acknowledge the Patrick Kane situation.)

‡ The Capitals added TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, and Kuznetsov and Burakovsky will be a year older and a year better. So, there's your additional scoring.

I've been an Ovie/Caps fan for so long, so my high hopes every preseason are probably willfully delusional. We'll revisit this in April.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:49 am

Yeah, I did love that Oshie trade. I might be underrating its effect on balancing the scoring.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:50 am

Also, that Saad trade was just inexplicable. And I looooooove Anisimov.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:57 am

mister d wrote:Also, that Saad trade was just inexplicable. And I looooooove Anisimov.

Speculation around here was to free up $$ to resign Kruger and Shaw, but that hasn't exactly worked the way I thought it would...

They also just waived Bryan Bickell as I was typing this.... 4mil/yr

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:11 pm

trav wrote:My must watch team this year is Pittsburgh. I have no idea how that team exists, it feels like they must be working under a different salary cap than everyone else.

They somehow talked Toronto into picking up a big chunk of Kessel's remaining salary.

My biggest concern with Pittsburgh, and this has been a roll-over concern for several seasons now, is that they don't have any cheap secondary scoring. They've been in win-now mode for years, which makes sense when you have Crosby and Malkin. But they've traded away so many draft picks for complementary players who haven't added much value. So, they have very little depth in the system, and the draftees who should be filling out the bottom-six just don't exist. (I'm still waiting on Beau Bennett.)

Ehlers

My faux-Canadian friend sent a photo to me last winter from his local grocery store: Aaron Ekblad on a box of cereal. Post used Ekblad, Sam Bennett, Nic Petan, Jake Virtanen, Jeremy Roy, and Ehlers as junior-hockey cover stars. Ehlers stood out to me because he was the only non-Canadian of the group. (He's Denmarkian.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:23 pm

Raphael Diaz is nothing spectacular, and some games downright garbage, but waiving him in order to keep Glass is really upsetting. There are a dozen guys who do what Glass does (except better) sitting at home but he gets the nod over the righty PMD.

BSF21 wrote:Speculation around here was to free up $$ to resign Kruger and Shaw, but that hasn't exactly worked the way I thought it would...

Shaw is the perfect guy to get way too much money from a bad team with cap space.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:28 pm

mister d wrote:
BSF21 wrote:Speculation around here was to free up $$ to resign Kruger and Shaw, but that hasn't exactly worked the way I thought it would...
Shaw is the perfect guy to get way too much money from a bad team with cap space.

That was Bickell. And then we gave him 4Mil and a No-Trade.

Worked with Big Buff. I don't want to lose Shaw. He's a good piece at the price he's at. I won't cry if he goes UFA and takes money, but I don't see a problem with him at 2-2.5MM/yr