NBA Season 15-16

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:10 am

Lebron isn't happy that Thompson is still holding out. Not sure who he more upset with thought - the team or Thompson.

Also, Blake Griffin broke a shot clock with a dunk.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:47 am

A_B wrote:Lebron isn't happy that Thompson is still holding out. Not sure who he more upset with thought - the team or Thompson.

Or his pal, who apparently can't get his client an extension from the team LeBron runs.

rass · Post by **rass** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:55 am

But I will say this lastly: you don’t want to make an enemy out of me. And I’m looking right into the camera and I’m going to say it again. You do not want to make an enemy out of me. I’m not having it. I’ve done nothing wrong and I’m not going to tolerate it.

ooooooooohhhh

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:45 am

I was giving the Matt Barnes/Derek Fisher story minimal attention, beyond the satisfying giggle. But I did briefly wonder why they would be within a couple of hours drive of one another, in the Los Angeles area (a New York coach and a Memphis player.)

But I stumbled on this:

Grizzlies to host 2015 Training Camp at University of California, Santa Barbara

Matt; all that pussy literally just steps away from Rob Gym on campus. Open your eyes, man.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:53 am

Deadspin absolutely nailed the Matt Barnes story:
http://deadspin.com/matt-barnes-terrori ... 1735333919
A man with a history of battering his wife driving 100 miles to inflict violence on someone who has the audacity of dating her belongs in jail. Fisher did absolutely nothing wrong here and treating this as a "love triangle" rather than the abusive act of a batterer lets Barnes off way too easily.

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:06 am

Knuckleheads gonna knuckle

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:57 am

538.com's player rating system gived #1 Pick Karl Anthony Towns comparable players...it isn't kind:

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:18 am

And then they mention that just outside the top 5 comps were Bosh, Davis, and Cousins. Which, if those guys are barely less likely to match a player than Greg Oden? What the fuck are you doing using that data?

Ricky Rubio's top 2 comps are Brevin Knight and Jason Kidd. Cool.

ETA: Is that comp based on projections for just the upcoming season (i.e. rookie Towns compares to rookie Oden) or for the rest of their careers?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:27 am

Ryan wrote:And then they mention that just outside the top 5 comps were Bosh, Davis, and Cousins. Which, if those guys are barely less likely to match a player than Greg Oden? What the fuck are you doing using that data?

Ricky Rubio's top 2 comps are Brevin Knight and Jason Kidd. Cool.

ETA: Is that comp based on projections for just the upcoming season (i.e. rookie Towns compares to rookie Oden) or for the rest of their careers?

I don't really know. I think it's supposed to be using the data they have to compare to players at similar points in their career. They projected KG to compare to Patrick Ewing, but that can't be peak ewing.

Johnny Carwash · Post by **Johnny Carwash** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:34 am

A year ago they said the best-case scenario for Andrew Wiggins was another James Posey.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:40 am

So if it's just a year-to-year thing, then that's pretty useless for the reader because how am I supposed to remember what Jeff Foster's 4th season looked like? And if it's a rest-of-the-career thing, then my first point stands and it's useless for everyone.

Another way 538 climbs halfway up the mountain and then throws the flag off the side.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:10 am

Ryan wrote:Another way 538 climbs halfway up the mountain and then throws the flag off the side.

Wow.

I sometimes go long stretches forgetting about 538's existence.

I'm not nearly as excited this year as I was last year, tho I guess some of the same storylines are intact. Last year, I thought that the league -- excuse me, Association --would be wide open, then just about every star player suffered a season-ending injury. (Well, the Clippers remained a healthy disappointment.) One week until opening night. I'm starting to get a little itch.

Post by **Shirley** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:48 pm

With so little data on rookies who played one year of college basketball, I wouldn't pay attention to ANY statistical projections. There's just not enough good data with which to project. Hell, I would bet it's very hard for any rookies, even if they played four years of college.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:02 pm

I agree 100%. Just thought it was funny. KAT's projections probably has as much to dow with being picked #1 and a forward/center as much as anything.

Johnny Carwash · Post by **Johnny Carwash** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:11 pm

May not get a chance to say this again, so hey, look: Bill Plaschke did a good thing.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:16 pm

Johnny Carwash wrote:May not get a chance to say this again, so hey, look: Bill Plaschke did a good thing.

That was great.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:25 pm

Bill brasky was the inspiration for that article.

That said, dude was high on loads of drugs and in a brothel so let's not act like he was some mora compass being exploited by the kardashians. He made mistakes too. I don't want him to be taken advantage of but his choices were his own.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:47 am

I have to find my copy of "FreeDarko Presents: The Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac: Styles, Stats, and Stars in Today's Game" to re-read the section on Odom. It is phenomenal.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:51 am

Ryan wrote:So if it's just a year-to-year thing, then that's pretty useless for the reader because how am I supposed to remember what Jeff Foster's 4th season looked like? And if it's a rest-of-the-career thing, then my first point stands and it's useless for everyone.

Another way 538 climbs halfway up the mountain and then throws the flag off the side.

Yeah, I gave up. To succeed at what they do, they need to have 20 ideas and research all 20 and publish the two that work out. A lot of their work reads like an idea that was going live no matter how it turned out.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:43 am

Easiest place to mention that Popovich is succeeding Krzyzewski as the head coach of USA Basketball for 2017-2020.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:53 am

Polar likability opposites.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:33 pm

mister d wrote:Polar likability opposites.

Which is which?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:41 am

Dang. Didn't even know Flip Saunders was that sick. Dead at 60.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:22 am

My "hot take" on the NBA: Steph Curry is now a better and overall more valuable player than LeBron. Curry's unparalleled shooting ability both makes him a more efficient scorer than LeBron and creates just as many (if not more) open looks for his teammates as LeBron's court vision. I saw a stat over the summer that Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green were both near the top of the list of NBA players who were, on average, the most wide-open on their jumpshots last season. I have no doubt that's mostly due to the attention Currys shooting draws from defenses. And I think that the advantages LeBron continues to have on defense and rebounding are outweighed by Curry's superiority at the offensive game.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:30 am

I like your assessment, but I think if Curry lost Green and Thompson for the playoffs he would have more trouble willing them to the finals.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:49 am

A_B wrote:I like your assessment, but I think if Curry lost Green and Thompson for the playoffs he would have more trouble willing them to the finals.

You're probably right, but put that team in last year's Eastern Conference playoffs and I think they win a series or two. I'm a little surprised by how few NBA pundits are picking the Warriors to repeat. Considering that they have Curry, Thompson and Green locked up long-term that team has dynasty written all over it. Green in particular is a perfect player to pair with Curry because he is a really good passer out of the 1-4 pick and rolls and his ability to defend bigger post men allows them to go to their unstoppable smallball lineups without getting killed on defense.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:52 am

I think the people that discount their chances do so almost exclusively based on how difficult it is to win three series in the West to even get to the finals.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:58 pm

Joe K wrote:My "hot take" on the NBA: Steph Curry is now a better and overall more valuable player than LeBron. Curry's unparalleled shooting ability both makes him a more efficient scorer than LeBron and creates just as many (if not more) open looks for his teammates as LeBron's court vision. I saw a stat over the summer that Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green were both near the top of the list of NBA players who were, on average, the most wide-open on their jumpshots last season. I have no doubt that's mostly due to the attention Currys shooting draws from defenses. And I think that the advantages LeBron continues to have on defense and rebounding are outweighed by Curry's superiority at the offensive game.

That doesn't seem to right to me, but honestly I don't really understand how to truly measure Curry's value (and to a similar degree, Harden's). Generally, I've always felt high-scoring jump-shooting guards were overrated by fans and the media. Usually those guys are black holes, stagnate the team's offense and they don't play D. But Curry also facilitates a lot of offense, even as he takes a lot of "bad" shots. I put "bad" in quotes, because he makes so many that I also have a hard time judging what's a bad shot for him.

In a lot of ways, he's one of the most unusual players in NBA history.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 10:01 pm

Shirley wrote:
Joe K wrote:My "hot take" on the NBA: Steph Curry is now a better and overall more valuable player than LeBron. Curry's unparalleled shooting ability both makes him a more efficient scorer than LeBron and creates just as many (if not more) open looks for his teammates as LeBron's court vision. I saw a stat over the summer that Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green were both near the top of the list of NBA players who were, on average, the most wide-open on their jumpshots last season. I have no doubt that's mostly due to the attention Currys shooting draws from defenses. And I think that the advantages LeBron continues to have on defense and rebounding are outweighed by Curry's superiority at the offensive game.
That doesn't seem to right to me, but honestly I don't really understand how to truly measure Curry's value (and to a similar degree, Harden's). Generally, I've always felt high-scoring jump-shooting guards were overrated by fans and the media. Usually those guys are black holes, stagnate the team's offense and they don't play D. But Curry also facilitates a lot of offense, even as he takes a lot of "bad" shots. I put "bad" in quotes, because he makes so many that I also have a hard time judging what's a bad shot for him.

In a lot of ways, he's one of the most unusual players in NBA history.

That's the thing about Curry: what's a bad shot for almost every other player in history is a great shot for him. He shot something like 43% on unassisted 3s last season, while attempting a very high volume of those shots, which is off the charts good. In comparison, Kyle Korver, who is also an elite shooter, makes nearly all of his 3s off of catch-and-shoots. Because Curry is probably better at making 3s off the dribble than any other player in history, it puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense. If you watch Golden State play, they'll get a ton of 4-on-3 situations on offense because when they set ball screens for Curry, both defenders go to him out of fear of his shooting. That's why guys like Green and Barnes get so many shots that are completely wide open.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 10:32 pm

Doesn't that set him up to be more Dominique than Jordan or LeBron? They win because his supporting cast can capitalize on the chances he creates, not because he's a uniquely dominant individual player who doesn't need other players.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 10:58 pm

mister d wrote:Doesn't that set him up to be more Dominique than Jordan or LeBron? They win because his supporting cast can capitalize on the chances he creates, not because he's a uniquely dominant individual player who doesn't need other players.

I think this understates Curry's individual dominance. According to Basketball Reference, Curry finished 6th, 4th, and 1st in VORP over the past three seasons. And I think that his teammates are helped more by playing with him than vice versa. I'm not saying that Curry is as good as LeBron was 3 years ago, but I do think he's been better than LeBron since the start of last season. It got a bit lost due to the fact that the Cavs made the Finals last year, but even before the injuries to Irving and Love, LeBron showed some signs of decline last year. His true shooting percentage for the season (which factors in 2s, 3s, and FTs) was the lowest it has been since 2007-08. In contrast, Curry was 4th in the league in true shooting behind Korver, Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan, all of whom take far fewer shots per game than Curry. Despite taking a lot of "bad shots" -- at least by traditional notions of what a good shot is -- Curry was the best combination of scoring volume and efficiency in the league last season.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:10 pm

Is the baseline for VORP team wins in basketball?

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:54 pm

mister d wrote:Is the baseline for VORP team wins in basketball?

Basketball Reference defines it as:

A box score estimate of the points per 100 TEAM possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level (-2.0) player, translated to an average team and prorated to an 82-game season.

Curry was also 1st in Win Shares/48 mins and 3rd in PER last year (behind Davis and Westbrook) so he rates really highly in multiple individual all-in-one metrics. Part of why I rate him so highly is that I think that efficient offense is probably the single-biggest predictor of NBA team success. And because he's a great shooter from 3 (at a really high volume) and the free throw line (at a relatively high volume), Curry is about as efficient as it gets for a 20+ ppg scorer.

For this same reason, I thought LeBron's playoff performance was somewhat overrated last year. Yes, his counting stats were great but he really didn't shoot very efficiently, especially in the Finals. Obviously, the depleted supporting cast didn't help matters, but I wouldn't put LeBron's Finals performance last year anywhere near the top of best ones I've seen. LeBron himself was far better in the 2012 and 2013 Finals than he was last year.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 8:25 am

I've always wondered what it'd be like to have the Rockets do their best "Houston Texans on a basketball court" impression. Awful start to the season.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 8:27 am

Giff wrote:I've always wondered what it'd be like to have the Rockets do their best "Houston Texans on a basketball court" impression. Awful start to the season.

Grizzlies did something similar against Cleveland. Just an awful effort.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:00 am

Joe K wrote:Curry was also 1st in Win Shares/48 mins and 3rd in PER last year (behind Davis and Westbrook) so he rates really highly in multiple individual all-in-one metrics. Part of why I rate him so highly is that I think that efficient offense is probably the single-biggest predictor of NBA team success. And because he's a great shooter from 3 (at a really high volume) and the free throw line (at a relatively high volume), Curry is about as efficient as it gets for a 20+ ppg scorer.

For this same reason, I thought LeBron's playoff performance was somewhat overrated last year. Yes, his counting stats were great but he really didn't shoot very efficiently, especially in the Finals. Obviously, the depleted supporting cast didn't help matters, but I wouldn't put LeBron's Finals performance last year anywhere near the top of best ones I've seen. LeBron himself was far better in the 2012 and 2013 Finals than he was last year.

See, this is exactly the issue I have with a lot of WAR-ish metrics for teammate-dependent sports like hockey and basketball. Neither of the things you said bolded above are wrong, but for LeBron to increase his PER and show better, he would have had to actively reduce the Cavs chances of competing. Irving's and Love's shots had to go somewhere, so you can either have LeBron take ones he ideally wouldn't or have him play at peak efficiency and dish off to ... [runs to the google machine] ... Matthew Dellavedova and J.R. Smith.

For a stat to really work, which is why PER comes up short and why individual Corsi/Fenwick don't do it for me, is it should measure the player or atleast his performance in a way that makes it comparable across all teams and situations. If you flip Curry and James before the Finals then played it out, their PER's would drastically change because of dependencies like teammates and competition and because of role, but not because of the players themselves. If Mike Trout gets traded to the Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury, those two guys aren't going to see a tangible change in their fWAR.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:22 am

mister d wrote:
Joe K wrote:Curry was also 1st in Win Shares/48 mins and 3rd in PER last year (behind Davis and Westbrook) so he rates really highly in multiple individual all-in-one metrics. Part of why I rate him so highly is that I think that efficient offense is probably the single-biggest predictor of NBA team success. And because he's a great shooter from 3 (at a really high volume) and the free throw line (at a relatively high volume), Curry is about as efficient as it gets for a 20+ ppg scorer.

For this same reason, I thought LeBron's playoff performance was somewhat overrated last year. Yes, his counting stats were great but he really didn't shoot very efficiently, especially in the Finals. Obviously, the depleted supporting cast didn't help matters, but I wouldn't put LeBron's Finals performance last year anywhere near the top of best ones I've seen. LeBron himself was far better in the 2012 and 2013 Finals than he was last year.
See, this is exactly the issue I have with a lot of WAR-ish metrics for teammate-dependent sports like hockey and basketball. Neither of the things you said bolded above are wrong, but for LeBron to increase his PER and show better, he would have had to actively reduce the Cavs chances of competing. Irving's and Love's shots had to go somewhere, so you can either have LeBron take ones he ideally wouldn't or have him play at peak efficiency and dish off to ... [runs to the google machine] ... Matthew Dellavedova and J.R. Smith.

For a stat to really work, which is why PER comes up short and why individual Corsi/Fenwick don't do it for me, is it should measure the player or atleast his performance in a way that makes it comparable across all teams and situations. If you flip Curry and James before the Finals then played it out, their PER's would drastically change because of dependencies like teammates and competition and because of role, but not because of the players themselves. If Mike Trout gets traded to the Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury, those two guys aren't going to see a tangible change in their fWAR.

That's all true. The big question with LeBron is whether his drop off in efficiency last year was due to adjusting to new teammates (who resembled a D-League team by the end of the playoffs) or if it's due to the start of age-related decline. Personally, I think there's much more of the latter at play than people realize. When you factor in play for the US National team, I doubt any 31-year old has ever had the mileage on his legs that LeBron does. Kobe and KG are the obvious comparators but KG didn't make many deep playoff runs in his 20s and Kobe got to share the load with Shaq for most of that time. Let's put it this way, Andre Iguodala is a really good defender, but I really doubt he would have been able to guard 27-year old LeBron by himself the way he was able to guard 30-year old LeBron in the Finals. I also suspect that Dan Gilbert was willing to break the bank the way he did this past offseason (the Cavs have either the 1st or 2nd highest luxury tax bill ever) because the Cavs' brass knows that the team's championship window is narrower than people think.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:30 am

The thought of LeBron being mortal is upsetting even with me not caring at all about the NBA.

Post by **Shirley** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:39 am

Actually, I'd say the biggest problem with PER (and to be fair, I haven't studied it much) is that it doesn't really value defense at all. In fact, almost no basketball rating systems do, because it's so hard. The only easy defensive stats you can glean from a box score are steal, blocks and defensive rebounds. None of those are proper measures of defense. In fact, high steals or blocks can often be the result of overall bad defense.

The other problem PER and most efficiency ratings have is that it is hard to measure the impact a player has on his teammates. A player like Curry may be an efficient scorer, but how does it affect his teammates to play with someone who is likely to bring the ball up the court, attack his man and take a difficult (for mortals) shot? We've all played with guys like that, and even if they are clearly the best player and it's an otherwise sound strategy, it affects your game. You stop cutting as hard. You don't bother setting screens for other players, you worry about heading to the baseline and being caught off guard by a long shot and rebound the other way, being dejected, you stop trying so hard on defense, etc. BTW, a lot of this applies to LeBron as well (and Kobe, Westbrook, and Harden). These guys can be very frustrating to play with even if you're winning for now. The problem comes in when that guy is off - now there's nothing else to go to because the other four guys aren't playing in a way to help the team win.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:48 am

The new tracking systems that track every player on teh court at all times as well as the ball are supposedly helping with the analytics of defense. But the data isn't widely distributed as of yet. But I think there was a presentation on it at the Sloan Conference that Grantland wrote about and it. I'll try to dig that up, but one of the things it mentioned was it was becoming more clear when a defender was denying passes and shots. So while tradional people look at steals and blocks, you can't get either of those things if your guy can't get the ball or get a clean look while you are guarding him.