The OFFICIAL 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:47 am

If you need me this morning, I'll be F5-ing Twitter, waiting on word on the Pens G situation.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:18 am

DAL over MIN in 5
CHI over STL in 6
ANA over NSH in 5
LAK over SJS in 7
PHI over WAS in 7
PIT over NYR in 6
FLA over NYI in 6
DET over TBL in 6

CHI over DAL in 7
ANA over LAK in 5
PIT over PHI in 5
FLA over DET in 6

ANA over CHI in 6
PIT over DET in 4

ANA over PIT in 5

*Just a first draft

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:40 am

MAF is on the ice!

Pens beat reporters are currently analyzing the goal he has taken position in and who is shooting at him. Updates to follow! So exciting...

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:56 am

rass wrote:MAF is on the ice!

Pens beat reporters are currently analyzing the goal he has taken position in and who is shooting at him. Updates to follow! So exciting...

I don't care one way or the other about the Pens/Rangers series, but with Pittsburgh being so hot, it would've been a shame for them to play the series with their third-string goalie.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:05 am

Fuck. and. Yes.

This enthusiasm may wane if the injury ravaged Lightning have troubles against the team with the worst goal differential in the regular season. For now, I'm pretty stoked. Got tix for tonight and game 5.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:27 am

Pens goalie with be a GTD.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:53 am

Parise and Vanek not making the trip. Not that MN had high hopes, but ouch.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 12:05 pm

I'm not even being antagonistic when I say I'd prefer MAF. (1) He has that history and (2) goals against the Pens are like 30% less fun when the goalie doesn't skate like a lost dummy to his half-boards and back.

* This assumes we decide to score some goals in the playoffs

** I'd bet the Pens in 6 just because our defense was a mess even before McDonagh went out

*** But, as always, we have Henrik so who knows

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 12:55 pm

mister d wrote:I'm not even being antagonistic when I say I'd prefer MAF. (1) He has that history and (2) goals against the Pens are like 30% less fun when the goalie doesn't skate like a lost dummy to his half-boards and back.

* This assumes we decide to score some goals in the playoffs

** I'd bet the Pens in 6 just because our defense was a mess even before McDonagh went out

*** But, as always, we have Henrik so who knows

On that note, the Player's Tribune playoff preview is a conversation-style piece from Ryan Whitney and Mike Rupp, and the NYR/PIT section focuses mostly on the two (hopefully) starting goalies and their differences. Have I mentioned that I love MAF?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:07 pm

Difference: In the playoffs, MAF doesn't stop shots whereas Lundqvist does stop shots.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:10 pm

mister d wrote:Difference: In the playoffs, MAF doesn't stop shots whereas Lundqvist does stop shots.

I think you're generalizing!

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:37 pm

rass wrote:
mister d wrote:I'm not even being antagonistic when I say I'd prefer MAF. (1) He has that history and (2) goals against the Pens are like 30% less fun when the goalie doesn't skate like a lost dummy to his half-boards and back.

* This assumes we decide to score some goals in the playoffs

** I'd bet the Pens in 6 just because our defense was a mess even before McDonagh went out

*** But, as always, we have Henrik so who knows
On that note, the Player's Tribune playoff preview is a conversation-style piece from Ryan Whitney and Mike Rupp, and the NYR/PIT section focuses mostly on the two (hopefully) starting goalies and their differences. Have I mentioned that I love MAF?

Thanks for sharing that! I just read both conference previews, the one Rupp did last year and now I'm reading Whitney's Russian excursion. Great stuff...

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:40 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:
rass wrote:
mister d wrote:I'm not even being antagonistic when I say I'd prefer MAF. (1) He has that history and (2) goals against the Pens are like 30% less fun when the goalie doesn't skate like a lost dummy to his half-boards and back.

* This assumes we decide to score some goals in the playoffs

** I'd bet the Pens in 6 just because our defense was a mess even before McDonagh went out

*** But, as always, we have Henrik so who knows
On that note, the Player's Tribune playoff preview is a conversation-style piece from Ryan Whitney and Mike Rupp, and the NYR/PIT section focuses mostly on the two (hopefully) starting goalies and their differences. Have I mentioned that I love MAF?

Thanks for sharing that! I just read both conference previews, the one Rupp did last year and now I'm reading Whitney's Russian excursion. Great stuff...

Yeah. I had only gotten through the Pens/Rangers preview when I posted that, but both conference preview articles were entertaining.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 2:50 pm

Not sure how often this has occurred in the playoffs, but the opposing goalies (Jimmy Howard and Ben Bishop) in the Det-TB series attended the same college: University of Maine.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:39 pm

mister d wrote:I'm not even being antagonistic when I say I'd prefer MAF. (1) He has that history and (2) goals against the Pens are like 30% less fun when the goalie doesn't skate like a lost dummy to his half-boards and back.

* This assumes we decide to score some goals in the playoffs

** I'd bet the Pens in 6 just because our defense was a mess even before McDonagh went out

*** But, as always, we have Henrik so who knows

Happy now?

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:14 pm

So USA Network is showing me some Mark Harmon vehicle instead of the hockey game. lol at this league.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:22 pm

I'm told it's NCIS. Anyway, enjoy the playoffs, let me know how it goes.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:23 pm

Rex wrote:I'm told it's NCIS. Anyway, enjoy the playoffs, let me know how it goes.

Maybe just an Atlanta thing? I'm watching the game on USA.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:55 pm

The game is on USA here but in SD on the HD channel. And for some reason letterboxed.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:20 am

I was able to watch parts of all the games.

STL really REALLY came out with a mentality of barely playing offense. To get a win with that strategy was pretty fortunate. I don't think it's going to work out for them in the end. That said, if they keep this up, I don't see how Chicago gets deep in these playoffs. That shit was brutal last night.

I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

Not much to add on the PIT-Gers game. Fairly comprehensive win... Pens are a buzzsaw right now. Interesting decision for next game... Keep the hot third stringer in place, even if Flower is ready to go?

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:28 am

Nonlinear FC wrote:I was able to watch parts of all the games.

STL really REALLY came out with a mentality of barely playing offense. To get a win with that strategy was pretty fortunate. I don't think it's going to work out for them in the end. That said, if they keep this up, I don't see how Chicago gets deep in these playoffs. That shit was brutal last night.

I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

Not much to add on the PIT-Gers game. Fairly comprehensive win... Pens are a buzzsaw right now. Interesting decision for next game... Keep the hot third stringer in place, even if Flower is ready to go?

I couldn't hold my eyes open for the whole game, but man Chicago has to be better on the PP. I know STL penalty kill is good, but they've gotta do better.

I do agree. If STL thinks that 1 goal a game is going to get it done they're mistaken. The offense will come.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:29 am

Nonlinear FC wrote:I was able to watch parts of all the games.
I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

I turned this on during the first big line scuffle. I thought, wow this does not happen too often in playoffs. Of course nobody risks dropping the gloves, 3 in the box for both team and they kept skating 5 v 5(for about 30 seconds before a hooking call and then another foul going the other way at the end of that power play). I actually thought the game was not very physical (i.e. clean hits and clearing the crease), but more just post whistle chippy.

I found the Rangers Pens game with more contact.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:32 am

Nonlinear FC wrote:I was able to watch parts of all the games.

STL really REALLY came out with a mentality of barely playing offense. To get a win with that strategy was pretty fortunate. I don't think it's going to work out for them in the end. That said, if they keep this up, I don't see how Chicago gets deep in these playoffs. That shit was brutal last night.

I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

Not much to add on the PIT-Gers game. Fairly comprehensive win... Pens are a buzzsaw right now. Interesting decision for next game... Keep the hot third stringer in place, even if Flower is ready to go?

I was there, and it felt like both teams were trying to hit/intimidate a ton. Multiple mid-ice, big hit, collisions. They say that Stamkos' office is the right face off dot, Callahan is making his office the boards behind the net, in line with that dot, his office. I feel like he's checked a ton of guys there this year. He had a few there last night. The scrum that led to 3 Wings in the box, and Killorn getting 2 minutes and Coburn 4 minutes seemed from my vantage point (lower level, opposite corner) like it was terribly officiated. That sequence really felt like it was very much instigated by the Wings, and I was surprised to not see a Bolts PP there. There were a few other times in the game where I felt we should have had penalties. Most importantly, fuck Abdelkader. I really don't care for that pest.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:42 am

govmentchedda wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:I was able to watch parts of all the games.

STL really REALLY came out with a mentality of barely playing offense. To get a win with that strategy was pretty fortunate. I don't think it's going to work out for them in the end. That said, if they keep this up, I don't see how Chicago gets deep in these playoffs. That shit was brutal last night.

I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

Not much to add on the PIT-Gers game. Fairly comprehensive win... Pens are a buzzsaw right now. Interesting decision for next game... Keep the hot third stringer in place, even if Flower is ready to go?
I was there, and it felt like both teams were trying to hit/intimidate a ton. Multiple mid-ice, big hit, collisions. They say that Stamkos' office is the right face off dot, Callahan is making his office the boards behind the net, in line with that dot, his office. I feel like he's checked a ton of guys there this year. He had a few there last night. The scrum that led to 3 Wings in the box, and Killorn getting 2 minutes and Coburn 4 minutes seemed from my vantage point (lower level, opposite corner) like it was terribly officiated. That sequence really felt like it was very much instigated by the Wings, and I was surprised to not see a Bolts PP there. There were a few other times in the game where I felt we should have had penalties. Most importantly, fuck Abdelkader. I really don't care for that pest.

I did not get good view of it but the commentators put a bunch of that scuffle on the goalie laying a slash after the play.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:46 am

wlu_lax6 wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:I was able to watch parts of all the games.

STL really REALLY came out with a mentality of barely playing offense. To get a win with that strategy was pretty fortunate. I don't think it's going to work out for them in the end. That said, if they keep this up, I don't see how Chicago gets deep in these playoffs. That shit was brutal last night.

I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.

Not much to add on the PIT-Gers game. Fairly comprehensive win... Pens are a buzzsaw right now. Interesting decision for next game... Keep the hot third stringer in place, even if Flower is ready to go?
I was there, and it felt like both teams were trying to hit/intimidate a ton. Multiple mid-ice, big hit, collisions. They say that Stamkos' office is the right face off dot, Callahan is making his office the boards behind the net, in line with that dot, his office. I feel like he's checked a ton of guys there this year. He had a few there last night. The scrum that led to 3 Wings in the box, and Killorn getting 2 minutes and Coburn 4 minutes seemed from my vantage point (lower level, opposite corner) like it was terribly officiated. That sequence really felt like it was very much instigated by the Wings, and I was surprised to not see a Bolts PP there. There were a few other times in the game where I felt we should have had penalties. Most importantly, fuck Abdelkader. I really don't care for that pest.
I did not get good view of it but the commentators put a bunch of that scuffle on the goalie laying a slash after the play.

It looked like it started right as Killorn knocked over someone, just to Howard's right, at the same time as the whistle blew the play dead. He had a few wings come after him, couldn't tell what was really going on after that, other than Larkin and someone else both going after Coburn.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:25 am

govmentchedda wrote:
wlu_lax6 wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.
I was there, and it felt like both teams were trying to hit/intimidate a ton. Multiple mid-ice, big hit, collisions. They say that Stamkos' office is the right face off dot, Callahan is making his office the boards behind the net, in line with that dot, his office. I feel like he's checked a ton of guys there this year. He had a few there last night. The scrum that led to 3 Wings in the box, and Killorn getting 2 minutes and Coburn 4 minutes seemed from my vantage point (lower level, opposite corner) like it was terribly officiated. That sequence really felt like it was very much instigated by the Wings, and I was surprised to not see a Bolts PP there. There were a few other times in the game where I felt we should have had penalties. Most importantly, fuck Abdelkader. I really don't care for that pest.
I did not get good view of it but the commentators put a bunch of that scuffle on the goalie laying a slash after the play.
It looked like it started right as Killorn knocked over someone, just to Howard's right, at the same time as the whistle blew the play dead. He had a few wings come after him, couldn't tell what was really going on after that, other than Larkin and someone else both going after Coburn.

On the NBCSN broadcast, they pointed out that Detroit had more hits through two periods than they averaged in a full game this season.

That big scrap, it seemed like Killorn dumped a Red Wing into Howard and things took off from there. Larkin was late to the party and ended up pairing up with Coburn, then the second Detroit guy came in because Larkin was well out of his class in that situation.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:47 am

DSafetyGuy wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
wlu_lax6 wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:I don't know if the NHL network was trying to downplay it (?), but the Tampa - Detroit game was very ugly from very early on. They had at least 2 times that I saw where all 5 of the guys on the ice were involved in wrestling - face washing match-ups. And 1v1 fights on top of that... Not to mention just general chippiness all over the ice. The recap of this game barely even mentioned the physical stuff. I dunno, I just found that odd.
I was there, and it felt like both teams were trying to hit/intimidate a ton. Multiple mid-ice, big hit, collisions. They say that Stamkos' office is the right face off dot, Callahan is making his office the boards behind the net, in line with that dot, his office. I feel like he's checked a ton of guys there this year. He had a few there last night. The scrum that led to 3 Wings in the box, and Killorn getting 2 minutes and Coburn 4 minutes seemed from my vantage point (lower level, opposite corner) like it was terribly officiated. That sequence really felt like it was very much instigated by the Wings, and I was surprised to not see a Bolts PP there. There were a few other times in the game where I felt we should have had penalties. Most importantly, fuck Abdelkader. I really don't care for that pest.
I did not get good view of it but the commentators put a bunch of that scuffle on the goalie laying a slash after the play.
It looked like it started right as Killorn knocked over someone, just to Howard's right, at the same time as the whistle blew the play dead. He had a few wings come after him, couldn't tell what was really going on after that, other than Larkin and someone else both going after Coburn.
On the NBCSN broadcast, they pointed out that Detroit had more hits through two periods than they averaged in a full game this season.

That big scrap, it seemed like Killorn dumped a Red Wing into Howard and things took off from there. Larkin was late to the party and ended up pairing up with Coburn, then the second Detroit guy came in because Larkin was well out of his class in that situation.

The stats were interesting all game. The Bolts started out with a huge advantage on faceoffs, and eventually got 55% for the game. The wings had a big advantage on shots for a long period of the game, and then the Bolts finished only 2 behind them. Detroit finished with 35 hits, and Tampa with 37. Not sure what each team's season average was, but it had to be considerably lower than that.

Drouin, Johnson, and Hedman really stood out for me.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:07 am

I think Drouin can be a real wild card for the Bolts. The kid has all the talent and seemed really into it. And, add Kucherov to that list.

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:08 am

govmentchedda wrote: Drouin, Johnson, and Hedman really stood out for me.

Was just going to ask you if Drouin looked as good live as he did on TV. He was flying by people all game.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:17 am

I don't know why I just fell into that question, but now I have an excel file on hits. TB and Detroit were both relatively low hitting teams this year; TB was 20.5 and Detroit was 20.1 (league avg was 23.2).

In general, shockingly, hits across the league skew higher at home (51.1%). If you do an arena hits+, like ERA+ or whatever, where you look at total hits recorded at home versus total hits in that team's road game, Tampa is actually the most neutral arena ...

CHI: 154
PIT: 134
FLA: 125
CAR: 124
MTL: 123
PHI: 123
TOR: 120
ARI: 115
S.J: 114
OTT: 112
DET: 110
ANA: 104
NYI: 104
EDM: 101
T.B: 100
L.A: 99
BOS: 97
NYR: 97
DAL: 93
WPG: 90
STL: 89
WSH: 89
CBJ: 81
COL: 79
NSH: 77
VAN: 77
N.J: 76
MIN: 75
BUF: 72
CGY: 71

Weirdly, Chicago reports the most hits in the league and is the least skewed towards themselves (37.5% of hits in Chicago were by a Chicago player). Columbus is the other side, with 60.7% of home hits credited to a Blue Jacket. Hits are really important.

(You might not believe this, but the 2nd highest home/away variance is a certain Halloween colored team whose fanbase gets bigger boners from borderline hits than they do for goals.)

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:34 am

Seems like every time I see a story referencing the hits statistic, the writer will include a caveat about how subjective and variable it is. Kind of frustrating to then try to use it for context.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:37 am

That's exactly why I looked.

travzilla · Post by **travzilla** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:40 am

I think using only road hits for each team reduces a lot of the bias noise, but what I'd really like to see is some kind of stat of hits relative to posession. If a team is high in hits, how much is that raw number because their opponent always has the puck, and how much is defensive skill.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:46 am

Yeah. I've seen a little groundswell to track only or separately hits that either change possession or put it 50/50. That would be a lot more valuable than some of the dipshit check finishing certain teams love.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:07 am

AV says McIlrath might dress and that Staal was better than Girardi which, in AV speak, is equivalent to lighting Girardi on fire in front of his entire family.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:52 pm

travzilla wrote:
govmentchedda wrote: Drouin, Johnson, and Hedman really stood out for me.
Was just going to ask you if Drouin looked as good live as he did on TV. He was flying by people all game.

Can't believe I forgot to include Kucherov up thread. He did have two goals, and that first one was really exciting from where we were. Speaking of which, I think his first goal and the first wings goal in the second period may have hit the same net in the exact same spot.

That being said, other than his two goals, Kucherov didn't really stand out. Drouin and Johnson looked like they had an extra gear that no one else on the ice had, and Hedman played fantastic, smart, positional hockey.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:24 pm

Hey, Mr. D, did you see the letter that Keith Yandle wrote you?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:15 pm

Him having girls who love paw patrol basically changed my stance on resigning him.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:50 pm

You sleepyheads in the east are missing a great game in California.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:50 am

sancarlos wrote:You sleepyheads in the east are missing a great game in California.

I was thinking this last night, how SJS/LA is a great matchup and a damn shame that every one of those games is going to start so late that anyone with a life/job that doesn't live in PST won't see much if any of it.