October Baseball Thread

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:14 pm

I'll throw my playoff predictions here:

Wild Card games: Jays over Orioles; Mets over Giants
ALDS: Jays over Rangers in 4; Red Sox over Indians in 3
NLDS: Cubs over Mets in 4; Nats over Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Red Sox over Jays in 7
NLCS: Cubs over Nats in 5
WS: Cubs over Red Sox in 6
WS MVP: Jon Lester

While I'm at it, my predictions on who will win the major awards:

AL ROY: Fulmer
AL Cy Young: Porcello
AL MVP: Betts
AL MOY: Francona

NL ROY: Seager
NL Cy Young: Scherzer
NL MVP: Bryant
NL MOY: Madden

I think the NL choices are fairly obvious, and the voters will get them all right. But I'd give the AL Cy Young to Kluber and MVP to Trout.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:58 pm

Player A
52 games 219plate apps 192AB 32R 68H 9doubles 5triples 13HR .354/.429/.656; OPS 1.085 OPS+ 188 WAR 3.1

Player B
52 games 225plate apps 199AB 33R 59H 12doubles 0triples 20HR .298/.373/.662; OPS 1.035 OPS+ 168 WAR 2.9

Player A, your 1959 NL ROY, Willie Lee McCovey

Player B, your 2016 AL ROY, Gary Sanchez

And another reason hitting and pitching should have separate ROY awards.

Edit: I corrected McCovey's rookie year, '59 not '62.

Post by **brian** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:29 pm

Cardinals win the World Series after appealing that they didn't make the postseason because their "mic was broken" or a "liberal conspiracy".

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:21 am

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:33 am

The best time of the year. I've been rolling with multiple TVs in the family room for Saturday's and Sundays, now that will probably be all week long. Cutting the cord makes it much easier to do that.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:04 am

AL WC: Toronto over Baltimore
NL WC: San Fran over New York
ALDS: Texas over Toronto
ALDS: Boston over Cleveland
NLDS: Chicago over San Fran
NLDS: Washington over Los Angeles
ALCS: Texas over Boston
NLCS: Chicago over Washington
WS: Chicago over Texas
WS MVP: Anthony Rizzo

Important note: I like all three NL division winners more than any AL team

MY Picks:

AL MVP*: Trout, Altuve, Donaldson, Betts, Lindor, Machado
AL CY: Kluber, Verlander**, Sale, Porcello, Tanaka
AL RoY: Fulmer***

* I think there's moderate risk of lots of sportswriters all having the same "I'll uniquely give Ortiz the top spot on my ballot" idea and, with some spread elsewhere from 1-5, Ortiz stealing an award even those voting for him don't believe he should win.

** Holy shit. Even if I was half antagonizing before, I never saw this type of bounceback coming. Like I thought he was Sabathia, either a potentially very good reliever (I was serious about that) or a league average starter with a big name and bigger contract. If Dombrowski were there he'd probably re-extend him.

*** In a year where there was a "best of the rookies" candidate, I'd be fine with Sanchez, but Fulmer was legit. Sanchez would have been both better (counting) and worse (rates) had he played another month or two, probably enough to take it, but 1/3 of a season isn't enough.

NL MVP: Bryant, Seager, Murphy, Votto, Segura, Freeman, Rizzo
NL CY: Fernandez****, Syndergaard, Scherzer, Cueto, Lester
NL RoY: Seager*****

**** He was top 5 no matter what so just f'ing do it, writers.

***** One of those "if this isn't unanimous, dissenters should lose their vote" categories. Kind of interesting that, without Seager, we'd be having the same half season debate in the NL with Trea Turner.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:26 am

I like the top half of your post a lot.

But Hendricks not even in the top 5 for Cy Young? I can see giving Cueto some kind of edge for throwing an extra 30 innings. But Syndergaard? The only edge I see for him over Hendricks is in strikeouts. Is that the basis, or is there something I'm missing?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:40 am

Its the old "if Hendricks pitched for the Mets and Syndergaard pitched for the Cubs" logic. Syndergaard was defense-independent outstanding.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:45 am

This right here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=20,a

Hendricks was great, but how do you explain similar hard hit ball data and an 84 point difference in BABIP in any way that's not a factor outside of the pitcher's control, especially when Syndergaard was forcing more GBs.

Post by **brian** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:57 am

Agree with all of Mr. D's picks. (I might have flipped a couple of guys between second and third in various categories, but a lot of the races are so close, it's hardly worth debating extensively. I don't think you're "wrong" for example if you had Scherzer above Syndegaard but I wouldn't want to argue the opposite either.

Doubt he can keep it up, but a couple more years like 2016 for Verlander should ice his place in the Hall of Fame. He's borderline right now, but I'm presuming future Hall candidates aren't going to be dismissed because they don't have 300 wins or 4,000 Ks or whatever ridiculous counting stats guys put up in generations past before innings and pitches were much more closely monitored. 250 career wins is going be the new 300 for pitchers of Verlander's generation.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:12 pm

AL Cy - Zach Britton.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:49 pm

brian wrote:Doubt he can keep it up, but a couple more years like 2016 for Verlander should ice his place in the Hall of Fame. He's borderline right now, but I'm presuming future Hall candidates aren't going to be dismissed because they don't have 300 wins or 4,000 Ks or whatever ridiculous counting stats guys put up in generations past before innings and pitches were much more closely monitored. 250 career wins is going be the new 300 for pitchers of Verlander's generation.

On that path ... I don't think there's a single active pitcher who would make the HoF if their careers all ended today. That's pretty crazy.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:51 pm

I need to ask Jay Jaffe about this one on twitter. Its now bothering me.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:30 pm

brian wrote:Cardinals win the World Series after appealing that they didn't make the postseason because their "mic was broken" or a "liberal conspiracy".

The funny thing is that people here are actually saying that the Dodgers tanked the last 3 games because they were scared of the Cardinals. It's ridiculous to think that a team would change its strategy to avoid a potential wild card team it couldn't even fave until the LCS. And it's even more laughable in this case when the team that got in instead has the best recent postseason track record of anyone.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:35 pm

AND ALSO THEIR BIGGEST RIVAL! Like can you imagine an Orioles or Jays fan claiming the Yankees intentionally tanked a final series in Boston to give the Red Sox the final wild card?

The Deadspin baiting of StL fans couldn't have worked out any better than it did.

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:21 pm

That's hilarious, any talk the the Dodgers tanked. Of course I watched all 27 innings, and clearly their regular lineup was playing to win. Oh, and the Blue are 3-16 at AT&T over the last two seasons, so sure they would prefer to see the Giants in the NLCS.

The thought of Dodgers/Giants playing best of seven to get to the world series makes me wet. But not gonna happen this year.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:54 pm

howard wrote:The thought of Dodgers/Giants playing best of seven to get to the world series makes me wet. But not gonna happen this year.

Yeah? You're that confident in the Nationals?

howard · Post by **howard** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:06 pm

No idea, I have not seen the Natinals much. All I know is Murphy can hit, and Harper can't (but he can walk).

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:32 pm

mister d wrote:AND ALSO THEIR BIGGEST RIVAL! Like can you imagine an Orioles or Jays fan claiming the Yankees intentionally tanked a final series in Boston to give the Red Sox the final wild card?

The Deadspin baiting of StL fans couldn't have worked out any better than it did.

The letters from Cardinals fans that Deadspin posted today were pretty great. I like this one:

From: Andrew L.

To: Samer Kalaf

Samer,

The St. Louis Cardinals won their 8th Game today. Carlos Martinez pitched 7 strong innings. He was backed by a two-run homer by Matt Holliday and a late RBI single by Yadier Molina (future hall of fame/better than any catcher that has played for you bad baseball team of butt/poop men who haven’t won things/have been eliminated by the Cardinals). Closer Trevor Rosenthal struck out the side to earn the save. The Cardinals have 11 World Series Championships, as well as 19 National League Pennants.

Molina is a good player who may end up being a fringe Hall of Fame candidate, but many Cardinals fans truly believe he's one of the all-time greats. It'll be pretty funny when he's HOF eligible, because all the Cards fans that assume he's a first-ballot lock will be in for a nice awakening.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:22 pm

mister d wrote:This right here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=20,a

Hendricks was great, but how do you explain similar hard hit ball data and an 84 point difference in BABIP in any way that's not a factor outside of the pitcher's control, especially when Syndergaard was forcing more GBs.

I wasn't really going to get into this too much, but I did run across an article on a Cubs site today pointing out that Hendricks led the NL in soft hit rate, and is third in the NL in hard hit rate.

Plus, maybe this is irrational, but I think results have to come into play somewhere when talking about an award. Obviously wins aren't the be all and end all, but a pitcher's job is to get batters out and/or prevent run scoring. And Hendricks was one of the top in the league in both of those. I can see focusing more on peripherals when it comes to projecting future performance, but when talking about awards, I think peripherals should be peripheral.

When we talk about offensive performance, we look at results. Singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, etc. wOBA and RC+ and OPS+ and all those take into account what actually happens when the ball is hit. I guess I see some logical difference, because Hendricks largely pitches with the same defense behind him all the time, while batters don't bat against the same pitching/defenses all the time. But I don't know if that difference is enough to justify complete focus on results for batters and not for pitchers.

I'm curious - does FanGraphs or anyone have a FIH stat - fielding independent hitting? (Or FIP against?)

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:14 pm

I do not miss having a rooting interest in the wild card game.

bfj · Post by **bfj** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:45 pm

I hate it. Stressful.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:58 pm

bfj wrote:I hate it. Stressful.

Well the O's bullpen doesnt give up runs so the Jays need to grind until the 11th

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:23 pm

What a waste of $12

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:27 pm

degenerasian wrote:What a waste of $12

I've been surprised by just how outrageous Blue Jays fans have been during the last 2 postseasons. I guess there was lots of pent up energy from the 22 year gap between playoff runs.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:29 pm

https://vine.co/v/562xnpAMbAe

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:31 pm

Joe K wrote:
degenerasian wrote:What a waste of $12
I've been surprised by just how outrageous Blue Jays fans have been during the last 2 postseasons. I guess there was lots of pent up energy from the 22 year gap between playoff runs.

Last years 7th inning was insane. Fans felt like they were getting cheated. Not justified but understandable.

Tonight was just 1 idiot.

Post by **brian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:39 pm

Canadians are doing their international reputation as uber-polite and passive-aggressive no favors.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:42 pm

If youre the O's when do you bring in Britton?

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:47 pm

when you get a lead

eta: i guess when they get a runner in scoring position.

etaa: i know nothing

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:55 pm

Not Cy Britton with the season standing at second base.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:10 pm

Maybe they want Britton to be well rested for spring training.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:12 pm

Is Ernie Johnson not gonna mention this the whole game? (Leather jacket)

duff · Post by **duff** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:34 pm

Nice walk off. Britton pitched well.

Post by **brian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:40 pm

Whatever complaints I have about Brad Ausmus at least Buck Showalter doesn't coach my team. Using seven pitchers none of which were arguably the best pitcher in baseball in a winner take all game.

Fucking genius.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:47 pm

brian wrote:Whatever complaints I have about Brad Ausmus at least Buck Showalter doesn't coach my team. Using seven pitchers none of which were arguably the best pitcher in baseball in a winner take all game.

Fucking genius.

Showalter is awful. He fucked up the 9th too and got lucky. When Donaldson led off the inning with a double he intentionally walked the next guy. Nobody does that. You get the next guy out and then walk the guy after that to get the inning ending double play.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:48 pm

brian wrote:Whatever complaints I have about Brad Ausmus at least Buck Showalter doesn't coach my team. Using seven pitchers none of which were arguably the best pitcher in baseball in a winner take all game.

Fucking genius.

That made less than no sense. What on earth was he saving him for?

And Geddy Lee has been a season ticket holder since day one of the Jays. His seats used to be five rows in front of my father's seats.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:49 pm

brian wrote:Canadians are doing their international reputation as uber-polite and passive-aggressive no favors.

It was a Dutchman who threw it.

bfj · Post by **bfj** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:02 pm

brian wrote:Whatever complaints I have about Brad Ausmus at least Buck Showalter doesn't coach my team. Using seven pitchers none of which were arguably the best pitcher in baseball in a winner take all game.

Fucking genius.

As much as I'd love to disagree with you, I can't. Listening to him try and reason away why he didn't bring in Britton in favor of Ubaldo makes me nauseous. Yes, Ubaldo has pitched well in September, as a starter. But Britton is the guy to slam the door. Even if you don't go Britton (but why wouldn't you go Britton), go Bundy. At least he's pitched out of the pen this year, and throws in the mid-high 90's.

Just so fucking stupid.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:11 pm

I got nothing. Showalter confirmed Britton wasn't hurt.