NFL 2016 - Week 10

rass · Post by **rass** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:11 am

NFL-N showed a stat last night (that I'm sure will the rounds this morning, like here!) that the Browns franchise has never had an all-time W/L % below .500 (NFL games only). After last night's loss they are 461-461-10.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:26 am

rass wrote:NFL-N showed a stat last night (that I'm sure will the rounds this morning, like here!) that the Browns franchise has never had an all-time W/L % below .500 (NFL games only). After last night's loss they are 461-461-10.

I'll say this about the Ravens, they are a pretty poor team. Yet they easily covered a 10 point spread.

Happily, I took the Ravens near the top in my confidence pool.

Unhappily, I still - for some moronic reason - still care about the Browns. When I saw that stat last night - during a game where the team got 140 yards in offence and the coach benched a rookie QB for a 37 year old hack after bristling during the week that he wasn't going to play "musical chairs" with his QBs - it depressed the hell out of me.

The new Browns are 87-195. The current team is on a 3-28 run which means that they have the same record as the Bucs did during their legendarily inept introduction to the NFL. Tampa won to go 4-28. The Browns pay Pittsburgh next week...

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:22 am

The Browns will beat Pittsburgh twice and go 2-14.

I also think the Steelers will shred the Cowboys up this week.

rass · Post by **rass** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:39 am

I've been assuming one loss to the Browns all season.

Now that we're almost here, I can't decide if beating Dallas and then losing to the Browns is the way to go, or if it would be more appropriate if they go on a run and then blow the division by losing to Baltimore and the Browns the last two weeks of the season.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:02 pm

I don't know where you get the idea that this Cleveland team can beat anyone.

I hate the idea of betting against them beating Pittsburgh, so I won't. But I would be shocked to see them within 10 points in either game.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:10 pm

I called it weeks ago somewhere on here, and stand by the call - Cleveland gets one win - Hue over Marvin in Cleveland in December.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:40 pm

I just drove past RFK - which looks dilapidated as hell and M&T Bank stadium, which can suck a bunch of dick.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:10 pm

Crazy finish in the Denver/New Orleans game!

ETA: KC/Carolina, too!

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:28 pm

the AFC West have pretty much clinched the 2 wildcard spots. If the Chargers win this afternoon the division would have 26 wins after Week 10. (and the Chargers blew a few games earlier)

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:06 pm

This was hilarious to me:

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:33 pm

Finally someone does a fake spike! That was an awesome touchdown by Pittsburgh.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:36 pm

Fake spiked too soon

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:46 pm

Rex wrote:Fake spiked too soon

Just wait until later.

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:10 pm

6 missed 2 point conversions in a game!

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:13 am

Johnnie wrote:This was hilarious to me:

That is hilarious to me as well!

And watching the Steelers-Cowboys game, we were yelling at the screen when the Steelers lined up for 2 points in the first quarter. I think that was a case of a coach getting too cute and it almost came back to cost Pittsburgh the game.

But man, I wish I was a Cowboys fan right about now.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:08 am

Pruitt wrote:
Johnnie wrote:This was hilarious to me:

That is hilarious to me as well!

And watching the Steelers-Cowboys game, we were yelling at the screen when the Steelers lined up for 2 points in the first quarter. I think that was a case of a coach getting too cute and it almost came back to cost Pittsburgh the game.

But man, I wish I was a Cowboys fan right about now.

The Steelers have always been more aggressive about going for 2, since they've typically had a good success rate on those plays and also had shaky kickers. (Heinz Field is also historically one of the toughest stadiums for kickers, but it hasn't been as bad this year.) The fact that they went 0-4 yesterday was probably more fluky than anything.

Also, I watched the 4th quarter of that game and the Cowboys' offensive line is ridiculous. Good luck beating them in a close game if they're going to destroy the defensive line late and open up holes like that for Elliott.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:10 am

Which 2 pt conversion? The first one, they do that all the time. The second one was just chasing points.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:42 am

Gunpowder wrote:Which 2 pt conversion? The first one, they do that all the time. The second one was just chasing points.

The first and second one.

I know they do it all the time, but missing it the first time means you have to chase it the second time. I am clearly an old timer when it comes to these things, but the Steelers almost faced the nightmare scenario of losing because of missed extra points.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:05 am

What did yall think of Carroll going for 2 to lead by 9 late? I dont hate that move.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:13 am

degenerasian wrote:What did yall think of Carroll going for 2 to lead by 9 late? I dont hate that move.

That decision makes perfect sense if you think your odds of scoring a 2-point conversion are greater than your odds of stopping one. Given how well Wilson had played and how good the Patriots receivers are on short routes, I agree with Carroll's decision.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:46 pm

degenerasian wrote:What did yall think of Carroll going for 2 to lead by 9 late? I dont hate that move.

I didn't understand it at all. Why wouldn't you take the XP, and lead by 8, rather then take a chance and lead by just 7.

I'm sure some sabermetrics-nerd will do the math for me...but I didn't like it.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:14 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote:
degenerasian wrote:What did yall think of Carroll going for 2 to lead by 9 late? I dont hate that move.
I didn't understand it at all. Why wouldn't you take the XP, and lead by 8, rather then take a chance and lead by just 7.

I'm sure some sabermetrics-nerd will do the math for me...but I didn't like it.

You're only factoring in what happens if Seattle fails and not the benefits if they succeed. Converting makes it a 2-possession game with 4 minutes left. Against Seattle's secondary, New England's chances of winning are slim to none if that is the case. Given that 2PC success rate is over 50% league wide, and both offenses were playing well that game, I think it was the right decision.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:24 pm

Worst case scenario is OT unless you think the Pats would go for 2 and the win in regulation. It was a free shot at winning.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:03 pm

It's the equivalent of the dagger in basketball, the three to take you from 4 to 7.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:38 pm

The Giants sure throw to Roger Lewis a lot for a team that has Odell Beckham.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:03 am

I would say you all will miss Marvin Lewis when he's gone, but he's never gonna be gone. Fuck everything.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:09 am

Pruitt wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:Which 2 pt conversion? The first one, they do that all the time. The second one was just chasing points.
The first and second one.

I know they do it all the time, but missing it the first time means you have to chase it the second time. I am clearly an old timer when it comes to these things, but the Steelers almost faced the nightmare scenario of losing because of missed extra points.

No you don't. If you miss the first one you can still just kick it the second time.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:15 am

DaveInSeattle wrote:
degenerasian wrote:What did yall think of Carroll going for 2 to lead by 9 late? I dont hate that move.
I didn't understand it at all. Why wouldn't you take the XP, and lead by 8, rather then take a chance and lead by just 7.

I'm sure some sabermetrics-nerd will do the math for me...but I didn't like it.

If you kick an XP, NE gets a chance to tie with a 2 point conversion. If the chances of either team converting are 50%+, it's mathematically the right move and you don't need to be a nerd to see it. And I would put NE's higher than that.

Your chance: 50%

49% of the time NE kicks an XP (let's say 98%) to tie, 50% + 1% (or whatever the missed XP chance is) to win

XP chance: 98%

99% (since if you miss the kick they kick and there's like a less than 1% chance both miss) -50% (NE 2 pt odds) to tie, 51% to win. So if you think the odds of the 2 pt are at say 60% for either team, you go for it. Against the Rams, you probably kick.

I really think more coaches should go for 2 to go up 9, though if you don't like it you don't like it, and that's fine. But there is definitely logic behind the move.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:41 pm

it would have to be late, inside 4 minutes.

My rules are, never go for 2 until the 4th quarter and then this new one, under 4 minutes.

and never go for it on 4th down in the 1st half.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:43 pm

Your rules sound like those of just about all NFL coaches.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:47 pm

DeGen, what do you do if it's the first half, and it's fourth and 1 from the opponent's 38? Go for a 55 yard FG?

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:47 pm

"Guys, don't score this touchdown to go up 5 yet. There's still :06 left in the 3rd quarter."

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:49 pm

In a related story, one of the weird sub-plots of this NFL season has been seeing Jim Caldwell somehow become aggressive in his decision-making on going on fourth down and the like. Almost like a switch clicked in his head and he decided "fuck it, if I'm gonna get fired anyways...."

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:56 pm

L-Jam3 wrote:DeGen, what do you do if it's the first half, and it's fourth and 1 from the opponent's 38? Go for a 55 yard FG?

punt

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:56 pm

Ryan wrote:"Guys, don't score this touchdown to go up 5 yet. There's still :06 left in the 3rd quarter."

i said dont go for 2

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:00 pm

degenerasian wrote:
L-Jam3 wrote:DeGen, what do you do if it's the first half, and it's fourth and 1 from the opponent's 38? Go for a 55 yard FG?
punt

OK. Assuming you're not coaching Minnesota, Philly, or Baltimore. Same decision?

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:03 pm

L-Jam3 wrote:
degenerasian wrote:
L-Jam3 wrote:DeGen, what do you do if it's the first half, and it's fourth and 1 from the opponent's 38? Go for a 55 yard FG?
punt
OK. Assuming you're not coaching Minnesota, Philly, or Baltimore. Same decision?

yeah, always. Pin them on their own 10.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:05 pm

I think Degen may be Romeo Crennel.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:10 pm

heh, i like gambling on 4th down going for two late when there are minimal possessions left. Risk/reward.

I don't see a reason to do it when there may be 10 possessions left. Like the Steelers on Sunday. Went for 2 on 1st touchdown. It's not my thing but sure. But then to try and chase points going from 13 to 14? why? just digging an unnecessary hole.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:38 pm

degenerasian wrote:heh, i like gambling on 4th down going for two late when there are minimal possessions left. Risk/reward.

I don't see a reason to do it when there may be 10 possessions left. Like the Steelers on Sunday. Went for 2 on 1st touchdown. It's not my thing but sure. But then to try and chase points going from 13 to 14? why? just digging an unnecessary hole.

Did you watch the Monday night game this week? Ben McAdoo's decision to be aggressive and go for it on 4th and goal basically won the Giants that game.