The Swamp

I am so woefully unprepared this year...

Need to declare keepers tomorrow, and realized I royally fucked up in selecting my draft spot. We do a reverse selection based on the prior year's standings. Last place chooses which draft spot they want, on down. I was planning on keeping a player costing a first round pick, so I went in thinking I'd take the highest pick available, which ended up being 4th. If I took #2, I would have been guaranteed to get my first round keeper and reset his 3 year keeper maximum clock.

PPR league, we start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, 1 TE no flex

I am definitely keeping Mike Evans with a 3rd round pick, Devante Adams with a 7th Round pick, and Tevin Coleman with an 11th Round pick.
I'm stuck between Antonio Brown and LeSean McCoy with a first round pick. LeVeon Bell is the only top 10 RB who won't be kept (i kept him 3 years, so he gets thrown back in the pool). This would be my third and final year keeping Brown, McCoy was drafted last year. I was planning on keeping Brown, but that gives me 3 WRs, and no starting RBs. I'll probably be left with Coleman (hoping Freeman gets hurt), and 2 RBs ranking in the 20-30 range, at best. I feel like it's much easier to find a decent playable WR option than a RB, so I'm starting think McCoy. I'm a bit worried about McCoy being 29, and the Bills shipping off all of their WRs. Brown is a guaranteed beast.

If only I took the #2 pick, I could have kept neither, and seen who others kept, then chose to draft Brown or McCoy, unless Bell was passed. Frustrating that in that scenario, the top 3 picks would have been guys from my roster last year.


ETA: So, McCoy or Brown?

I'd keep Brown.

Brown

Brown, all the way. With Brown, you got one of the three Tier 1 WR (Julio and ODB) and one of the Tier 2 in Evans. Especially in PPR.

A little last minute intrigue. Looking to trade Brown for a 7th round keep of Michael Crabtree. This way I get to keep McCoy, and get a low end WR2 at a bargain draft pick.

It's hard for me to say because I've probably made like 3 trades in my fantasy football playing days (my league just refuses to trade for some reason). I'd rather be the one getting the one superstar and the extra roster spot, but when you consider the round pick you have to give up, it's hard to say no.

You can trade keeper slots?

mister d wrote:You can trade keeper slots?

Keepers are drafted based on where you drafted them the prior year. You can elect to keep up to 4 players, but can keep none. Max of 3 years keeping a player. When you trade a player, keeper eligibility stays with the player.

As an example, if I draft someone in the 6th this year, and keep him:

First year kept: Prior draft round, -1 (2018 draft, I'd keep him for a 5th round pick)
2nd year kept: -2 off of prior year (2019 draft, I'd keep him in the 3rd round)
3rd year kept: -2 off prior year (2020 draft, keep him with 1st round pick)

Both McCoy and Brown would cost me 1st round picks, so I can only keep one. If I trade Brown, the other guy can keep Brown with his 1st round pick. If you keep two players with the same round eligibility, you draft one a round earlier. So if I had 2 4th round keepers, I could keep one in the 3rd round, one in the 4th.

Right now you're at Brown, Evans, Adams and Coleman. If you make the trade, do you get five or do you have to knock another guy (besides Brown) off the original list to keep McCoy and Crabtree?

mister d wrote:Right now you're at Brown, Evans, Adams and Coleman. If you make the trade, do you get five or do you have to knock another guy (besides Brown) off the original list to keep McCoy and Crabtree?

Gotcha, I drop Adams. I don't trust him, and I'm stuck keeping him in DSafe's league, so I keep Crabtree instead of Adams in the same 7th round spot.

Although...., keeping another teams handcuff instead of a solid WR is a tough call...

I would play it safe/smart and keep Brown.

I would stay away from any Buffalo players, especially at Round 1.

This ESPN mock, which is the extent of my research, said you'd be double-downgrading with that trade.

Keg wrote:I would stay away from any Buffalo players, especially at Round 1.

That was my concern, but the only RBs available are the rookies, and I don't like any of them this year. Put in to trade Tevin Coleman and Crabtree to Freeman's owner for DeMarco Murray. In a normal draft, I'd choose Brown over McCoy every day, but there is a lot more depth to find a startable WR than a RB. If I kept Brown, my draft would be chasing longshot RB options, hoping to find 2 guys worth starting.

Has anyone ever gone back and checked how draft position correlates to actual points by position, especially by position? Seems like RBs can flop for so many reasons, be it health or team or job share that its not worth taking one over a similar (or better) WR.

Related, I pick 2nd in my PPR league.

I'd much rather roll the dice on a mid-round rookie RB than spend a 1st round pick on McCoy.

There are a ton of teams with unsettled backfields (DEN, DAL (Weeks 1-7), NE, MIN, PHI, DET, NO, KC, BAL, TB, IND, CIN, etc). You should be able to find some decent options, especially in a PPR league.

I'd love to have a Brown-Evans one-two punch in my lineup.

2 RB: LeVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Kenyon Drake, Jamaal Williams, Mike Davis
3 WR: Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, Chris Hogan, Marquise Goodwin (Robert Woods)
1 TE: Cameron Brate, Jared Cook
1 FLEX

I legitimately have no clue beyond "definitely Bell and Jeffery". Pick my fuckin' playoff squad, y'all.

mister d wrote:2 RB: LeVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Kenyon Drake, Jamaal Williams, Mike Davis
3 WR: Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, Chris Hogan, Marquise Goodwin (Robert Woods)
1 TE: Cameron Brate, Jared Cook
1 FLEX

I legitimately have no clue beyond "definitely Bell and Jeffery". Pick my fuckin' playoff squad, y'all.

Lewis
Baldwin, Goodwin
Brate
Williams

I'm in playoffs of both my pay leagues. One team I'm all in on the Saints this week (fuck you DSafe!) and the other I'm all, gulp, Bengals. Rolling with Dalton to Green, plus Bernard as my RB2 my RB2 has been garbage all year. RB1 too since Cook went down. But somehow 9-4 in a 14-team league with a 3rd seed.

Giff wrote:

mister d wrote:2 RB: LeVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Kenyon Drake, Jamaal Williams, Mike Davis
3 WR: Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, Chris Hogan, Marquise Goodwin (Robert Woods)
1 TE: Cameron Brate, Jared Cook
1 FLEX

I legitimately have no clue beyond "definitely Bell and Jeffery". Pick my fuckin' playoff squad, y'all.

Lewis
Baldwin, Goodwin
Brate
Williams

I'm in playoffs of both my pay leagues. One team I'm all in on the Saints this week (fuck you DSafe!) and the other I'm all, gulp, Bengals. Rolling with Dalton to Green, plus Bernard as my RB2 my RB2 has been garbage all year. RB1 too since Cook went down. But somehow 9-4 in a 14-team league with a 3rd seed.

RB - Bell, Drake (will get touches in pass game, as well)
WR - Jeffery, Baldwin, Goodwin (looked good with Garropolo last week and Texans have a bad pass D)
TE - Brate (much better with Winston at QB)
FLEX - Lewis

Giff, I am really looking forward to coming home from my pick-up game tonight and knowing if I'm going to feel like throwing up for the next almost 72 hours (may Mark Ingram not just play, but vulture all the scores from Brees, Kamara, Michael Thomas). Hopefully, Garropolo helping me win will be a little salt in the wound.

Just realized I only start 2 WR, not 3. Does that make Goodwin my lock Flex?

Williams led me into the playoffs in one of my pools. A must start for sure.

I will be starting Garapolo in one of my two playoff games this week. I have made 29 roster moves in that league and other than QB, I feel pretty good about things.

In my other pool, my team was 10th (out of 14) in points, yet somehow I went 8-5.

mister d wrote:Just realized I only start 2 WR, not 3. Does that make Goodwin my lock Flex?

Then how's you even make the playoffs?

But, seriously, yes, Goodwin at FLEX.

On Williams/Drake...

One site lists CLE is 23rd in points allowed to RBs, NE is 13th. That comparison seems to be non-PPR, but NE has given up seven more receptions to RBs over the course of the season, which doesn't change things much.

DSafetyGuy wrote:On Williams/Drake...

One site lists CLE is 23rd in points allowed to RBs, NE is 13th. That comparison seems to be non-PPR, but NE has given up seven more receptions to RBs over the course of the season, which doesn't change things much.

Thing with the Pats defensive stats (and it really is remarkable) - they gave up 131 points in the first 4 weeks, and 95 in the next 8. Talk about a well-coached team.

My recommendation is try to avoid the Pats D at all costs.

Pruitt wrote:

DSafetyGuy wrote:On Williams/Drake...

One site lists CLE is 23rd in points allowed to RBs, NE is 13th. That comparison seems to be non-PPR, but NE has given up seven more receptions to RBs over the course of the season, which doesn't change things much.

Thing with the Pats defensive stats (and it really is remarkable) - they gave up 131 points in the first 4 weeks, and 95 in the next 8. Talk about a well-coached team.

My recommendation is try to avoid the Pats D at all costs.

This site has the Pats averaging allowing 18.9 fantasy points per game to RBs on the season, 11.6 in the last five weeks, and 14.9 in the last three vs OAK, MIA, BUF. (Drake had 10.7 points against them two weeks ago, non-PPR - MIA had 15.9.)

The site has the Browns averaging allowing 17.1 fantasy points per game to RBs on the season, 15.6 in the last five weeks, and 18.2 in the last three vs Fournette, Mixon, Gordon.

Now, at the same time while the Browns' defense appears to be wilting, I don't think they're gonna be worried about Brett Hundley throwing the ball and will load up against the run. After all, he did put up 84 yards against the team that is 31st against the pass last week.

DSafetyGuy wrote:

mister d wrote:Just realized I only start 2 WR, not 3. Does that make Goodwin my lock Flex?

Then how's you even make the playoffs?

By playing an extra WR each week.

DSafetyGuy wrote:

Pruitt wrote:

DSafetyGuy wrote:On Williams/Drake...

One site lists CLE is 23rd in points allowed to RBs, NE is 13th. That comparison seems to be non-PPR, but NE has given up seven more receptions to RBs over the course of the season, which doesn't change things much.

Thing with the Pats defensive stats (and it really is remarkable) - they gave up 131 points in the first 4 weeks, and 95 in the next 8. Talk about a well-coached team.

My recommendation is try to avoid the Pats D at all costs.

This site has the Pats averaging allowing 18.9 fantasy points per game to RBs on the season, 11.6 in the last five weeks, and 14.9 in the last three vs OAK, MIA, BUF. (Drake had 10.7 points against them two weeks ago, non-PPR - MIA had 15.9.)

The site has the Browns averaging allowing 17.1 fantasy points per game to RBs on the season, 15.6 in the last five weeks, and 18.2 in the last three vs Fournette, Mixon, Gordon.

Now, at the same time while the Browns' defense appears to be wilting, I don't think they're gonna be worried about Brett Hundley throwing the ball and will load up against the run. After all, he did put up 84 yards against the team that is 31st against the pass last week.

Good points.

I need Williams to have a good game, so maybe I'm adding "personal bias" to my analysis.

Stafford or Garopolo?

Pruitt wrote:Stafford or Garopolo?

Stafford.

DSafetyGuy wrote:

Pruitt wrote:Stafford or Garopolo?

Stafford.

Shouldn't even be a question imho. Jimmy is winning games so far, but not stats sheets.

Thanks!

Now Fournette is hurt - tempted to bench him and start Cohen.

Pruitt wrote:Thanks!

Now Fournette is hurt - tempted to bench him and start Cohen.

Which I did... instead of Juju.

Luckily the guy I'm playing had Wilson at QB.

I'm up 20 with the only player left being Alfred Morris for him.

Might just squeak into the finals.

Obliterated my way into the championship game of DSafe's league. Hunt's 36 points on Saturday night were a thing of beauty!

Made it into the finals 96-90, despite getting a total of12.5 points from two RBs, a WR, my TE and D/ST.

A big "thank you" to Melvin Gordon and the Rams D for destroying Russel Wilson.

In a 3-keeper league with a flex spot, I'd be stupid not to keep Hunt, Kamara and McCoy, right?

Giff wrote:In a 3-keeper league with a flex spot, I'd be stupid not to keep Hunt, Kamara and McCoy, right?

You should see if you can repeat with none of them on your roster next season.

Congrats.

My friend won his league (and over $1K) on the last play of the Eagles game.

DSafetyGuy wrote:

Giff wrote:In a 3-keeper league with a flex spot, I'd be stupid not to keep Hunt, Kamara and McCoy, right?

You should see if you can repeat with none of them on your roster next season.

Congrats.

Gracias!

The guy who won the 14-team league I commish also won another $150 buy-in 14-team league and lost his third league (16-team, $200 buy-in) on that JuJu play. He probably still made nearly $3k.