The Swamp

Posted: **Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:56 pm**

I think 2020 is a toss-up. I expect the Democratic Party and it’s base to be highly motivated and unified. (Frankly, the claims of internal divisions in 2016 are vastly overblown.) But so many of the potential nominees would be weak candidates. Many of them share Obama’s weaknesses (overly cautious and technocratic policy proposals) without any of his strengths (he was very charismatic and an outstanding campaigner).

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:39 am**

One thing about Trunp has really crystallized for me this week. Abstinence from booze is way overrated. If that jello mold of a brain is what 70+ years of not drinking brings you, fuck it, pour me another.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:37 am**

Hopefully by now Mueller has the goods on the answer to this question.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:47 am**

Joe K wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:56 pm I think 2020 is a toss-up. I expect the Democratic Party and it’s base to be highly motivated and unified. (Frankly, the claims of internal divisions in 2016 are vastly overblown.) But so many of the potential nominees would be weak candidates. Many of them share Obama’s weaknesses (overly cautious and technocratic policy proposals) without any of his strengths (he was very charismatic and an outstanding campaigner).

Agree except there is only one Democratic candidate that I think would be viable...Joe Biden...although I have doubts about reports that say he is running. Which annoys me because if he had run in 2016 we wouldn't be in this mess.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:52 am**

I think Biden runs and I think it’ll be a wide Dem field but they’ll eventually make way for him to try and get a spot as his VP since it’s possible if he wins he doesn’t finish his term or only serves one term.

I think even someone as ambitious and capable as Warren will realize that a white man who (hopefully) embraces some of the best parts of the Democratic Socialist platform is the best way to beat Trump. I think a Biden/Harris ticket that embraces a $15 minimum wage and abolishing ICE would probably cruise to victory.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:55 am**

I'm going to strongly disagree with the strategy but agree this sounds like exactly what the Dems will do.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:00 am**

I hate to say it but the best strategy is to try and neuter the racist middle America base Trump has. I’ve seen this in Michigan the last week. These people don’t especially love Trump but they didn’t feel they had an alternative in 2016. Biden is a good bridge until those people start dying in greater numbers. Beating them over the head with a black woman or another older white woman in 2020 is just going to validate their vote in 2016. People pretend that turnout was the big issue for Clinton but it really wasn’t. It was sexism. Give those people one more old white man to either switch to or give them cover to stay home.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:01 am**

Plus despite his flaws Biden is a fighter. That will also appeal to a lot of those people.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:05 am**

If Biden runs, what is Bernie's role?

Is Biden left enough? Would Biden even accept Warren and her $15 minimum wage/single payer healthcare as his running mate.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:14 am**

Biden is attack-able from both sides and he's not going to do anything to inspire the masses who didn't vote, which is where you need the gains. I'm not saying O'Rourke, because I know very little about O'Rourke, but he's completely in the Obama mold that gained 10MM votes over the prior Dem candidate. He has experience, but not so much that he's married to the party establishment or responsible for their repeated failures.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am**

(If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:19 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am (If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)

Say it's Chelsea Clinton for argument's sake. Who would be the 3rd party candidate?

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:23 am**

No, no 3rd party in 2020. My long-ish term prediction is that a two party system filled with predominantly upper-middle to upper-class white people isn't sustainable with the shifting demographics of the country (even with one party doing everything they can to reverse that shift). Either the Dems will adapt to look like who they purport to represent or another party will do it for them.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:26 am**

If Beto wins it’ll be a hard sell on him turning right around to run in 2020 but I agree with the theory a candidate like that would be compelling. I think the current situation negates most flaws from a candidate like Biden. Don’t sleep on a guy like Julian Castro if Beto wins and throws his support behind Castro though. His national profile isn’t huge now but he’s a heavy player and could really get a lot of support quickly and could help carry Texas which Trump can’t win without.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:34 am**

I'm calling Amy Klobuchar.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:35 am**

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:37 am Hopefully by now Mueller has the goods on the answer to this question.

Didn't the taxpayers of New Jersey at least partially fill this role?

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:41 am**

Giff wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:34 am I'm calling Amy Klobuchar.

I’m of two minds about nominating a woman HOWEVA if the Dems do I’d like someone like her or Gillibrand who doesn’t have an extensive public profile.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:46 am**

Giff wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:34 am I'm calling Amy Klobuchar.

Not saying she wouldn't be qualified (she wouldn't be my choice), but she'd still be more of the same. Would be a 14 year senator in 2020. Same with Booker, with Gillibrand, with everyone else the current leadership might find palatable. Fair or not at a personal level, they all served under Obama and lost to Trump.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:50 am**

I'm sorry but I've said it before and will say it again: going further left is not the solution. In order to win you still need at least some of the middle. If both sides go extreme to please what they perceive as their base then the middle will vote with their pocketbook...which means taxes...which, right or wrong, the Right currently has the lockdown on the perception that taxes will be lower. My entire family and most of my social circle think Trump is a complete buffoon and shouldn't be president, but a large number voted for him (or didn't vote for Hillary) because taxes and Hillary's flaws (real or perceived) as a candidate.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:11 am**

Liz MF Warren

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:11 am**

I'd pick whatever Democrat the Russians like

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:12 am**

Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:11 am I'd pick whatever Democrat the Russians like

You mean the Chinese, don't you?

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:18 am**

Whoever's rigging elections at that time, sure

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:25 am**

GoodKarma wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:50 am I'm sorry but I've said it before and will say it again: going further left is not the solution. In order to win you still need at least some of the middle. If both sides go extreme to please what they perceive as their base then the middle will vote with their pocketbook...which means taxes...which, right or wrong, the Right currently has the lockdown on the perception that taxes will be lower. My entire family and most of my social circle think Trump is a complete buffoon and shouldn't be president, but a large number voted for him (or didn't vote for Hillary) because taxes and Hillary's flaws (real or perceived) as a candidate.

Enjoy doing your taxes this year.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:28 pm**

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:19 am
mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am (If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)
Say it's Chelsea Clinton for argument's sake. Who would be the 3rd party candidate?

I just dry heaved.

BTW, doesn't Biden have like a 70% chance of being MeTooed at some point in the next few years, particularly if he doesn't quietly go away? He's always been a bid handsy with the ladies.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:31 pm**

Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:28 pm
degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:19 am
mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am (If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)
Say it's Chelsea Clinton for argument's sake. Who would be the 3rd party candidate?
I just dry heaved.

BTW, doesn't Biden have like a 70% chance of being MeTooed at some point in the next few years, particularly if he doesn't quietly go away? He's always been a bid handsy with the ladies.

And for God's sake, he's one of the faces of the Democratic party establishment. How will a 77 year old energize anyone?

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:35 pm**

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:31 pm
Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:28 pm
degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:19 am
mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am (If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)
Say it's Chelsea Clinton for argument's sake. Who would be the 3rd party candidate?
I just dry heaved.

BTW, doesn't Biden have like a 70% chance of being MeTooed at some point in the next few years, particularly if he doesn't quietly go away? He's always been a bid handsy with the ladies.
And for God's sake, he's one of the faces of the Democratic party establishment. How will a 77 year old energize anyone?

I don't think "old establishment white guy" is what the Democrats are looking for. And I can think of at least five people I'd rather see instead of Biden. (Warren, Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Gillibrand)

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:36 pm**

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:31 pm
Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:28 pm
degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:19 am
mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:16 am (If they go the legacy act or the celebrity route, my prediction for a legit 3rd party moves up a decade.)
Say it's Chelsea Clinton for argument's sake. Who would be the 3rd party candidate?
I just dry heaved.

BTW, doesn't Biden have like a 70% chance of being MeTooed at some point in the next few years, particularly if he doesn't quietly go away? He's always been a bid handsy with the ladies.
And for God's sake, he's one of the faces of the Democratic party establishment. How will a 77 year old energize anyone?

Because he is Uncle Joe. Everyone knows him. Not my first option though.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm**

JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:24 pm**

I'm on Airplane Mode, because fuck this shit.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:30 pm**

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:51 pm**

rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?

It went off in my office...always funny to me when you hear everyone's cell phones at once.

For some reason, though, I didn't get it. I must no longer be considered a U.S. citizen.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:56 pm**

[all cell phones go off for Amber Alert]

GoodKarma: "LOL."

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:13 pm**

rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?

It went off while our unit chaplain was doing a prayer at our bbq. My phone didn't make noise though because my settings allow a simple notification.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:37 am Hopefully by now Mueller has the goods on the answer to this question.

Trump switched daddies. My immediate takeaway from the article after I got through it.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:51 pm**

I didn't get the alert either but I was flying home.

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:09 pm**

Gritty

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:20 pm**

GoodKarma wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:51 pm
rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?
It went off in my office...always funny to me when you hear everyone's cell phones at once.

For some reason, though, I didn't get it. I must no longer be considered a U.S. citizen.

It's possible to turn those off, might want to check your settings.

Particularly for things like "HIDE, TORNADO's A-COMIN!"

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:31 pm**

Super excited for the incoming nuke warning --> 12 minutes of panic --> "... is the message you'll be receiving if my opponent Creampuff Cory wins this November's election" --> hastily called SMS presser where she says everyone knew the president was joking and "actually he has the best sense of humor of anyone I've ever met".

Posted: **Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:33 pm**

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:20 pm
GoodKarma wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:51 pm
rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?
It went off in my office...always funny to me when you hear everyone's cell phones at once.

For some reason, though, I didn't get it. I must no longer be considered a U.S. citizen.
It's possible to turn those off, might want to check your settings.

Particularly for things like "HIDE, TORNADO's A-COMIN!"

From what I heard, this kind is not turnoffable

Posted: **Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:19 am**

Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:33 pm
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:20 pm
GoodKarma wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:51 pm
rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:19 pm JFC

They really did that National Alert thing?
It went off in my office...always funny to me when you hear everyone's cell phones at once.

For some reason, though, I didn't get it. I must no longer be considered a U.S. citizen.
It's possible to turn those off, might want to check your settings.

Particularly for things like "HIDE, TORNADO's A-COMIN!"
From what I heard, this kind is not turnoffable

Accurate. You can't turn off the Presidential Alert.

The Swamp

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