The Swamp

Since I mentioned it in the Trump thread, I am curious as to what everyone thinks about the effect of the Roy Moore issues. Personally, I think he still not only stays in but wins. Maybe not by as much of a margin as he was going to; but still wins (and it won't be close). If he does win, despite current posturing, I believe he will be seated in the Senate.

Yeah, he's winning. It's Alabama.

First off, of course he's staying in. He would've bounced already and he's done nothing but dig in and cry Fake News and trot his wife and lawyers out with nonsense. That's a 100 percent lock.

Jones is up 8 in poll today. I voted here that he wins, but it will be extremely close (nowhere near an 8 point spread.)

Am I confident? Hell no. Alabama is fucking nuts.

L-Jam3 wrote:Yeah, he's winning. It's Alabama.

Yeah, it's hard to get past this.

I'm saying no, but if he wins, McConnell seats someone else. I can see Alabama voting for him, but I can't see the Republicans seating him. I mean, Hannity stopped backing him FFS.

Anyone see his wife's speech at the rally today? I could have sworn she said something about not be able to get to the mall.

L-Jam3 wrote:Yeah, he's winning. It's Alabama.

This. Pedos over Libtards.

He'll win and he'll sit.

He will stay in. This asshole defied the Feds more than once before. He might as well be a divine right monarch with his outlook on life. If McConnell won't seat him, he will sue, claiming a violation of the 17th Amendment. This guy is on a mission from god in his eyes. Anyway it comes out, the R's look bad, which is good. The best outcome is that he loses the election to Doug Jones.

Really need to start a pedo elephant meme.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/0 ... enate.html

He signs bibles?



Wow.

Avram wrote:He will stay in. This asshole defied the Feds more than once before. He might as well be a divine right monarch with his outlook on life. If McConnell won't seat him, he will sue, claiming a violation of the 17th Amendment. This guy is on a mission from god in his eyes. Anyway it comes out, the R's look bad, which is good. The best outcome is that he loses the election to Doug Jones.

This is correct. The election is in Alabama but it's not happening in a vacuum. If he's seated it'll just turn more centrists away from the Republicans.

He loses.

Nonlinear FC wrote:http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/06/roy_moore_campaigns_for_senate.html

He signs bibles?



Wow.

There's child fucking in the Bible, so...

His wife spoke of how her husband was fighting for the unborn.

He wins.

"I personally think he [Trump] owes us a thank you. Have you noticed you're not hearing too much about Russia?" Kayla Moore told a crowd of Moore-supporting women and TV cameras in Montgomery.

Sigh.

She's not wrong. Whenever news coverage shifts from him to something breaking it coincides with an awful revelation.

I'd feel a lot more confident of a Jones victory if this had all broken just a little closer to the election. Alabamians have plenty of time to be reminded (by their Republican governor if by no one else) that they need to seat a Republican to vote for Supreme Court appointments. I'd say Jones has a 35% shot at a win, which is a fair bit better than the 10% I'd have given him before this.

Not sure how things got moved out of this thread, but the fact some on Twitter are saying surprisingly high number of black voters is giving me hope I probably shouldn't have. I'm sure the GOP manages to steal this one one way or another.

Just more voters they have to turn away or votes they have to disallow or lose. It'll work out.

https://youtu.be/WFYRkzznsc0

Edit:

This is in the other thread, but whatever.

The Failing NYTimes meter has been swinging further Left. Just moved from 74% chance of Jones winning to 80% Jones. I feel utter dread and terror in my flashbacks of watching that meter last year. Fuck what our politics have become.

The Birmingham paper has it Moore +8% with 2/3rds of the vote in.

Alabama is the laughing stock of the rest of the world.

Ok, fuck this NYTimes meter. It went up to 90% Jones, down to 62%, now at 70%. Nate Silver explained how he admired the attempt, but Alabama is impossible to predict in real time. Not to mention, this is such a highly unusual election for so many reasons. The positive side, the black vote turned out in higher than expected numbers, and the rural white vote is lower than projected. Last I saw, black women were exit polling at 97% Jones, black men at 93% Jones. But I have to wonder, if you are a black woman and voter for Moore, and a polster stops you and asks how you voted, are you too embarrassed to admit you voted Moore? I can also see a rural white Evangelical being embarrassed to admit he voted Jones, and lie and say he voted Moore.

Have I mentioned how much I hate this race? The Alabama Senate race, not the White race. I have White friends, and some of them are good people.

Now at 50%-49% with 80% counted.

I mean ... I obviously want a certain outcome here, but the idea of the nation potentially applauding Alabama for defeating a pedophile bigot 49.21% to 49.20% doesn't exactly feel right.

NYT calls it for Jones.

Live look at Moore headquarters.

https://youtu.be/gcJGM7htXr0

mister d wrote:I mean ... I obviously want a certain outcome here, but the idea of the nation potentially applauding Alabama for defeating a pedophile bigot 49.21% to 49.20% doesn't exactly feel right.

I don't think anybody is applauding Alabama in Jones wins, I'll just be thrilled we don't have a completely insane nutjob in the Senate who thinks the country would be better off reversing all Amendments after the Tenth, bringing back the glory days of slavery. He said women shouldn't be allowed to vote, FFS. How does any woman vote for a guy who openly says that? Criminalizing homosexuality and banning Muslims from holding public office? How the fuck, in 2017, does a guy with those beliefs get this close to a seat in the Senate? And the only thing stopping him, if he does lose, is a string of credible accusation of molesting children and dating teenagers as a 32 year old DA? Think about it, if not for the whole fucking children thing, a guy with those insane beliefs, who wears a little cowboy outfit and pulls a tiny gun during a speech, who rides his fucking horse to cast his vote, who has only one Jew lawyer... A guy with all those beliefs would have won a Senate seat in a landslide. Not to mention, he was twice kicked off the bench for refusing to follow Supreme Court orders, and a second time for knowingly providing false information in court. FUCK!

AP too.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/940784509238333441?s=17

Well color me surprised.

Never been happier to be wrong.

Maybe there’s hope for America yet.

I hope if anything this is the end of Bannon.

degenerasian wrote:I hope if anything this is the end of Bannon.

You mean Steve "political Genius" Bannon?
I hope he continues to run Republican campaigns. He is so successful and so in touch with America

The Sybian wrote:

mister d wrote:I mean ... I obviously want a certain outcome here, but the idea of the nation potentially applauding Alabama for defeating a pedophile bigot 49.21% to 49.20% doesn't exactly feel right.

I don't think anybody is applauding Alabama in Jones wins, I'll just be thrilled we don't have a completely insane nutjob in the Senate who thinks the country would be better off reversing all Amendments after the Tenth, bringing back the glory days of slavery. He said women shouldn't be allowed to vote, FFS. How does any woman vote for a guy who openly says that? Criminalizing homosexuality and banning Muslims from holding public office? How the fuck, in 2017, does a guy with those beliefs get this close to a seat in the Senate? And the only thing stopping him, if he does lose, is a string of credible accusation of molesting children and dating teenagers as a 32 year old DA? Think about it, if not for the whole fucking children thing, a guy with those insane beliefs, who wears a little cowboy outfit and pulls a tiny gun during a speech, who rides his fucking horse to cast his vote, who has only one Jew lawyer... A guy with all those beliefs would have won a Senate seat in a landslide. Not to mention, he was twice kicked off the bench for refusing to follow Supreme Court orders, and a second time for knowingly providing false information in court. FUCK!

I’m happiest because it means they won’t do the whole “don’t seat Moore- give the seat to Sessions- new AG fires Mueller” thing.

The Sybian wrote:And the only thing stopping him, if he does lose, is a string of credible accusation of molesting children and dating teenagers as a 32 year old DA? Think about it, if not for the whole fucking children thing, a guy with those insane beliefs, who wears a little cowboy outfit and pulls a tiny gun during a speech, who rides his fucking horse to cast his vote, who has only one Jew lawyer... A guy with all those beliefs would have won a Senate seat in a landslide. Not to mention, he was twice kicked off the bench for refusing to follow Supreme Court orders, and a second time for knowingly providing false information in court. FUCK!

It is repulsive. Loyalty to party and to a regressive cause, and you can run someone who shits on the constitution and who was banned from a mall for harassing tweens.

Still, baby steps here. And just think, tomorrow morning, that sack of shit wakes up unemployed.

Well, I'll be damned. I'm very happy to be dead wrong about this one. Honestly, I never even considered the thought that Jones may win. Maybe we've already hit rock bottom?