The Swamp

I am here for the Pat Mahomes portion of the proceedings:

Yeah, that's 30 yards on a clothesline into a covered WR. Pretty amazing throw.

And with a whole offseason to prepare and a pretty grim cap situation, I absolutely could see the Chiefs trying to move Smith. They would get $17M in cap relief (if I have my numbers right) and Smith might be attractive to a team that needs a one-year bridge to a younger QB. Can think of a lot of places where he might get some attention. Don't think the Chiefs are going to get much in assets back, but even a third-rounder or something like that would be a pretty decent result for KC.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:58 pm Yeah, that's 30 yards on a clothesline into a covered WR. Pretty amazing throw.

And with a whole offseason to prepare and a pretty grim cap situation, I absolutely could see the Chiefs trying to move Smith. They would get $17M in cap relief (if I have my numbers right) and Smith might be attractive to a team that needs a one-year bridge to a younger QB. Can think of a lot of places where he might get some attention. Don't think the Chiefs are going to get much in assets back, but even a third-rounder or something like that would be a pretty decent result for KC.

there's been a lot of local talk of getting a second-rounder for Smith which seems like a pipe dream. but given the desperation at quarterback by some NFL teams, who the hell knows.

Mahomes made throws that I've never seen a Chiefs quarterback make. He wasn't perfect -- his interception was a sailed throw and looked like a rookie multiple times -- but his arm is insane.



the Chiefs aren't in the best cap shape, but they should be able to retain the core and if they draft well in the second and third rounds like they have recently they're fine. Especially in a division that's eminently winnable again in 2018.

Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Smith comes with a much bigger cap hit (and much higher age) though.

I would like to see what Alex Smith can do on a team with a good coach, a running game, solid defense, great homefield advantage, and a history of coming up short

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:25 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Smith comes with a much bigger cap hit (and much higher age) though.

And when the Bengals needed McCarron's help to win a playoff game, he actually did his part.

I hope Alex Smith goes to New England.

Alex Smith will always be defined for me by the 2012 NFC TItle Game against the Giants. Smith had decent stats by virtue of two long TDs by Vernon Davis, but when the game was there for the taking he could not make a play to save his life. 49ers fans who regret moving on from him are out of their minds, because there’s no way Smith wins 3 road playoff games (against Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Can Newton) in 2013-14 like Kaepernick was able to.

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:12 pm Alex Smith will always be defined for me by the 2012 NFC TItle Game against the Giants. Smith had decent stats by virtue of two long TDs by Vernon Davis, but when the game was there for the taking he could not make a play to save his life. 49ers fans who regret moving on from him are out of their minds, because there’s no way Smith wins 3 road playoff games (against Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Can Newton) in 2013-14 like Kaepernick was able to.

Absolutely agree. Living here in the Bay Area, Smith's local supporters started chirping in 2015 when Kaepernick was going downhill under Chip Kelly and Smith was having relative success in KC, and really didn't stop until Jimmy G arrived. But your last sentence hits it on the head.

I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:31 pm I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

Kaep was decent under Kelly but the defense was awful. Like historically bad. Dead last in rushing yards allowed by a wide margin (only the Browns were within 25 yards/game and even them just barely). And opposing QBs had a 30-10 TD/INT ratio and averaged a 97 QB rating.

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:35 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:31 pm I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

Kaep was decent under Kelly but the defense was awful. Like historically bad. Dead last in rushing yards allowed by a wide margin (only the Browns were within 25 yards/game and even them just barely). And opposing QBs had a 30-10 TD/INT ratio and averaged a 97 QB rating.

Yeah. That's why Kaep can't get a job, I think. No one wants him coming in and ruining their defense.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:31 pm I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

The team was going downhill. Kaepernick got benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert, came back, got injured, went on IR...
link
and
link

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Eagles got a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford

Avram wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:42 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Eagles got a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford

Well, the Vikings were in panic mode at that time, after Bridgewater went down.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:38 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:31 pm I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

The team was going downhill. Kaepernick got benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert, came back, got injured, went on IR...
link
and
link

That was all in the 2015 season under Jim Tomsula. The Kelly season was 2016. Gabbert started the first 6 games in 2016 I believe, as Kaepernick was coming off offseason shoulder surgery. But Kaepernick started every game once he returned to the lineup.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Avram wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:42 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Eagles got a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford

Well, the Vikings were in panic mode at that time, after Bridgewater went down.

and I think that McCarron was almost a second because the Browns thought they had to do something after not getting Jimmy Grapes.

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:51 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:38 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:31 pm I hadn't seen any 49er games in 2016. What exactly was Kelly trying to do with Kaep? Because his raw numbers didn't look terrible, especially given the dearth of talent around him.

The team was going downhill. Kaepernick got benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert, came back, got injured, went on IR...
link
and
link

That was all in the 2015 season under Jim Tomsula. The Kelly season was 2016. Gabbert started the first 6 games in 2016 I believe, as Kaepernick was coming off offseason shoulder surgery. But Kaepernick started every game once he returned to the lineup.

I referenced 2015 because that was the year I referenced in my original post about Kaep's fall from favor - which as you noted did start with Tomsula, before Kelly. And, certainly, injuries were a factor.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:25 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am Bronto, the bengals almost got a 2nd for McCarron. I would think Smith could pull at least that in this market.

Smith comes with a much bigger cap hit (and much higher age) though.

True - but much higher plug and play upside to the right team - Jacksonville, say. Or Denver maybe. Or even Buffalo.

this discussion is fun in the context that Alex Smith is/was the Chiefs' second-best quarterback since Joe Montana

I'm just saying, while Smith's downside is noted via Gunpowder and Ryan, I also think he has significant 2018 value to Jacksonville, for one. There should be a market for him if KC is ready to move on. Which they should be.

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:12 pm Alex Smith will always be defined for me by the 2012 NFC TItle Game against the Giants. Smith had decent stats by virtue of two long TDs by Vernon Davis, but when the game was there for the taking he could not make a play to save his life. 49ers fans who regret moving on from him are out of their minds, because there’s no way Smith wins 3 road playoff games (against Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Can Newton) in 2013-14 like Kaepernick was able to.

The 49ers destroyed NYG in that game. Three DBs collided on one play trying to pick off an Eli Manning pass. But there was Smith, completely unable to hit a WR to save his life. That was the best 49er team of the recent era, for sure. They absolutely annihilated the Giants offense.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:08 pm I'm just saying, while Smith's downside is noted via Gunpowder and Ryan, I also think he has significant 2018 value to Jacksonville, for one. There should be a market for him if KC is ready to move on. Which they should be.

That's his only shot. If one of Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor isn't in Jacksonville next year, either Bortles somehow took the Jags to the Super Bowl this year or someone is just determined to minimize that defense.

What truly has most of the value in this scenario is "not Blake Bortles".

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:56 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:08 pm I'm just saying, while Smith's downside is noted via Gunpowder and Ryan, I also think he has significant 2018 value to Jacksonville, for one. There should be a market for him if KC is ready to move on. Which they should be.

That's his only shot. If one of Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor isn't in Jacksonville next year, either Bortles somehow took the Jags to the Super Bowl this year or someone is just determined to minimize that defense.

What truly has most of the value in this scenario is "not Blake Bortles".

Agreed.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:56 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:08 pm I'm just saying, while Smith's downside is noted via Gunpowder and Ryan, I also think he has significant 2018 value to Jacksonville, for one. There should be a market for him if KC is ready to move on. Which they should be.

That's his only shot. If one of Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor isn't in Jacksonville next year, either Bortles somehow took the Jags to the Super Bowl this year or someone is just determined to minimize that defense.

What truly has most of the value in this scenario is "not Blake Bortles".

"The Good Place" is a really good show.

One of the characters - Jason - is the dumbest guy in the world. One way he continually shows his stupidity is by talking about how great Blake Bortles is!

Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:18 pm
"The Good Place" is a really good show.

One of the characters - Jason - is the dumbest guy in the world. One way he continually shows his stupidity is by talking about how great Blake Bortles is!

and mentions they need a defense!

(I just looked it up and the show got renewed for a 3rd season, based on the current tract, just wondering what the twist is to milk another season out of it.)

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:11 pm

Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:18 pm
"The Good Place" is a really good show.

One of the characters - Jason - is the dumbest guy in the world. One way he continually shows his stupidity is by talking about how great Blake Bortles is!

and mentions they need a defense!

(I just looked it up and the show got renewed for a 3rd season, based on the current tract, just wondering what the twist is to milk another season out of it.)

Did you see the most recent episode?

[+] spoiler

The four of them along with Michael are going to the REALLY bad place. If they can make it through there unscathed, they may find a portal that will take them to a judge who will rule on their cases (as to whether they can go to the good place.) Michael calls it a long shot.

Yes, that's why I'm wondering about season 3.

Either on Drugs or in Love

Or merely an example of someone taking stats and bending them to fit their narrative.

As you watch the NFL playoffs this weekend, feel free to scream as you realize again what you already feared last weekend: Except for Tom Brady, there isn’t a quarterback in the postseason who is significantly better than Kirk Cousins.

As I will show statistically later in this column, in the whole NFL only Aaron Rodgers joins Brady as entirely out of Cousins’s class.

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:11 am Either on Drugs or in Love

Or merely an example of someone taking stats and bending them to fit their narrative.

As you watch the NFL playoffs this weekend, feel free to scream as you realize again what you already feared last weekend: Except for Tom Brady, there isn’t a quarterback in the postseason who is significantly better than Kirk Cousins.

As I will show statistically later in this column, in the whole NFL only Aaron Rodgers joins Brady as entirely out of Cousins’s class.

Imagine thinking that Kirk Cousins is in the same class as Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. I like how he uses the Saints' running game to dismiss Brees, as if Brees hasn't spent the vast majority of his sure-fire, first ballot HOF career absolutely carrying the Saints offense.

The thing about Cousins, (at least in my limited viewing experience) is that his performance seems to be erratic from week to week. He’s looked super at times, but we’ve also seen games where he he made bad decisions and was inaccurate and without poise.

I'm checking out anytime someone writes "As I will show statistically later in this column"

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:20 pm I'm checking out anytime someone writes "As I will show statistically later in this column"

(Begins scouring Bronto's columns looking for something like this)

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:20 pm I'm checking out anytime someone writes "As I will show statistically later in this column"

Amen!

Not happy about it but lines are too long so I was going to bet Eagles +2.5. We’ll see if I was right.

brian wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:10 pm Not happy about it but lines are too long so I was going to bet Eagles +2.5. We’ll see if I was right.

so to clarify you didn't bet at all?

---

last Saturday feels like so long ago. and then I realize the Chiefs would have lost tonight anyway, so it really didn't matter what happened last week.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:28 pm

brian wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:10 pm Not happy about it but lines are too long so I was going to bet Eagles +2.5. We’ll see if I was right.

so to clarify you didn't bet at all?

---

last Saturday feels like so long ago. and then I realize the Chiefs would have lost tonight anyway, so it really didn't matter what happened last week.

That took a lot of the sting out of the Bills loss for me - the realization that they'd lose by 30 points tonight.

Feels like this is the 20th consecutive NFL game I turned on to see 6-3 late in the 2nd quarter.

Remind me which one of these guys is the reigning NFL MVP and which one is the backup.