2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:48 pm

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:46 pm No mid major ever wins if big programs keep kids in school. Ever.

Kind of hard to enforce that clause.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:49 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:34 pm No, we're talking about Saint Mary's. (There are a couple of others you could probably have made a tepid case for (like Middle Tennessee State) and a couple of others that would have been hosed unfairly had they lost their conference tournament like Buffalo or New Mexico State, but this wasn't a banner year for mid-major conferences.

The point remains though that Saint Mary's and other similar schools are held to a standard that no major conference school could ever hope to achieve. And worse, some years there's just as much chaff at the bottom of major conferences as there is in some mid-majors. Look at the Big Ten this year, for example. The Big Ten only got four bids and didn't really deserve more than that, but a couple of games break differently and maybe Nebraska or Penn State does get in and you have major conference apologists saying with a straight face that it's justified because they play in the Big Ten? Where 10 of the 14 schools had a 140 or worse non-conference SOS? It's maddening.

(pssst... if you really want to pick a conference that historically gets mediocre, below 500 teams in the the Dance, it rhymes with Bay-Key-Key. I looked it up and they have had about triple the amount of other major conferences with teams below 500 get in... That was up until 2015, so maybe there's been a few more here and there, but by that chart, since 1960, the ACC had 13 and the next down the line was the Big East with 5 and the B1G with 4.)

Post by **brian** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:00 pm

I'm not calling out the Big Ten specifically (beyond the fact that it pretty much sucked this year) just saying that the current system is configure to cater to the power conferences and that's understandable to some degree, but it's frustrating when you see really decent teams passed over for some 18-14 mediocrity and it happens year after year after year. If a team was missing a truly great player like Missouri and Notre Dame this year and gets him back, then I'll listen to an argument for including that team, but at some point we need better tools to identify which teams truly belong because it's obvious the selection committee doesn't actually watch college basketball games (nor can they be expected to watch every game to be fair) because if they did it's hard to argue for including some of these teams at the expense of a team that did just about all that can be asked of them in a conference dominated by a school like Gonzaga.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:07 pm

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:46 pm No mid major ever wins if big programs keep kids in school. Ever.

I’d argue the opposite; it’s the mid-major talent pool that’s being reduced. It’s not like Kentucky is signing 2 stars to replace their early entries.

Post by **Shirley** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:10 pm

The flip side of that is simply the math of being in a top conference. Take the Big 12 this year. Nine of the ten teams in that league were really good this year. But that means that some of those teams - no matter how good they are - are going to have middling or poor conference records. And therefore middling overall records. Take one of those teams - Oklahoma State for instance - and put them in the Missouri Valley conference and they're gonna have a much better record.

If we're just talking about St. Mary's, as Brian says, I don't think there's much to say. Every year some teams get in that shouldn't (yes, including a lot of power conference teams), and some don't get in that should. St. Mary's has a great case for that this year. Looking at the numbers, I would have included them.

But that's a different story than saying this is some huge, systemic problem with the NCAA tournament (a case that Mr. D seems to make every year) screwing the little guys.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:10 pm

Well, I guess not the opposite, but that there isn’t a gain in this scenario.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:11 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:00 pm I'm not calling out the Big Ten specifically (beyond the fact that it pretty much sucked this year) just saying that the current system is configure to cater to the power conferences and that's understandable to some degree, but it's frustrating when you see really decent teams passed over for some 18-14 mediocrity and it happens year after year after year. If a team was missing a truly great player like Missouri and Notre Dame this year and gets him back, then I'll listen to an argument for including that team, but at some point we need better tools to identify which teams truly belong because it's obvious the selection committee doesn't actually watch college basketball games (nor can they be expected to watch every game to be fair) because if they did it's hard to argue for including some of these teams at the expense of a team that did just about all that can be asked of them in a conference dominated by a school like Gonzaga.

Oh, I know I was just following a hunch and Google'd, I agree with the overall premise... To a point.

I know you guys aren't denying that the major conferences have a tougher overall schedule, but it's coming very close to that. Gonzaga and St. Mary's play a bunch of very shitty teams that comprise the lower middle table of that conference. Teams that would get run out of the gym by the Nebraskas and PSUs of the basketball world. Shit, I'd put a late season Iowa up against BYU on down the line. And that's stipulating that the B1G is in a down year.

I have no argument that St. Mary's got hosed and that there is an overall bias in the system towards the major conferences. But that doesn't all of a sudden mean that the universe has shifted and these non-majors are all of a sudden better conferences or something.

I know that's a bit of strawman for this current conversation, but I see it happen a lot as people over-compensate with their arguments in favor of the St. Mary's of the world. Mid Tenn St is a great example. They had an absolute shite out of conference and while I know all the possible reasons for that, it can't just be waved off this year.

Post by **Shirley** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:12 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:07 pm
HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:46 pm No mid major ever wins if big programs keep kids in school. Ever.
I’d argue the opposite; it’s the mid-major talent pool that’s being reduced. It’s not like Kentucky is signing 2 stars to replace their early entries.

Nah, honestly, it's the lower schools in the power conferences. Marvin Bagley wasn't going to go to Lehigh if Jayson Tatum had stayed at Duke. But, I guess the next level guys would slide down to the mid-major level.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:32 pm

What's really going to kill mid-majors, from a competitive standpoint, is if the free transfer rule does go into affect. It absolutely should, but it likely ends our days of getting legit fringe-NBA / high-abroad talent.

Post by **brian** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:37 pm

I can't figure out for the life of me why the NCAA doesn't just use college hockey's model for the draft and for eligibility. It's not perfect, but it works well enough and has protections for both the players and the school, but especially the players.

Post by **Shirley** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:49 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:32 pm What's really going to kill mid-majors, from a competitive standpoint, is if the free transfer rule does go into affect. It absolutely should, but it likely ends our days of getting legit fringe-NBA / high-abroad talent.

You'll see stars move up, but you'll also see a lot of guys move down. I think it will even out. I can think of just guys who transferred out of Virginia in recent years who starred at smaller schools where they got more run (Billy Baron, Darius Thompson). It'll be like one of those multi-tier sifters to separate different grains of sand. Guys will more easily find their proper level.

I hope. It could turn into a anarchistic mess too, but if that happens, they'll change the rule back in a hurry.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:03 pm

We see a lot of that now but aside from an exception or two of choosing to come home, its major conference kids who didn't get the playing time they expected and want to bail. La Salle is a safe option for them; if you're a 4 or 5 star who didn't get time at a major, you can know you'll get that and a guaranteed 15 shots with us. Now, Georgetown can fill their open SF spot or Maryland can fill their 3rd guard or whatever and both sides benefit. *And*, in the rare event we get a legit talent out of HS, we risk losing them at the end of their career for a better shot at seeing the tourney. It'll basically be like pro/rel but players choosing to do it themselves and its absolutely a good thing, just not for me.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:08 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:40 pm Also, you probably have to have a pretty major leaning definition of “realistically” when the #23/#25 team heading into conference tourneys got skipped over.

Their 19-game win streak that got them noticed enough to get into the polls included a win at Gonzaga, two wins over BYU (#70), and 9 teams #189 or worse (kenpom numbers). I wouldn't really give the people voting in the media poll credit for anything other than noticing a gaudy win-loss record.

Only three WCC conference teams ended in the top 100. That is not unusual. 2014 was the last time a fourth WCC team was in kenpom's top 100. 2013 did it, too. When your conference is traditionally that weak, you have to schedule some tough teams in non-conference if you want to get into the NCAAs. RPI rating sucks, but when you know the tournament committee will use it, you have to be proactive.

And, hey, it sucks that Cal and Dayton had off years. If they were at their usual level and the Gaels had still won those games, St Mary's would probably be in. Scheduling #204 (St Francis PA), #298 (San Jose St), #282 (Sacramento State), and #189 (Seattle), #192 (UNC-Asheville) when you're in a conference with a bottom as weak as the WCC (four teams #222 or worse) when you know the deck is stacked against you hurts. Just having Creighton (#28) and Rhode Island (#34) on their schedule would have lifted their RPI, not to mention their strength of schedule, regardless of whether or not they won. Even losing those two theoretical games would have made them 26-7 with better RPI and SOS.

I like St. Mary's and think Randy Bennett does a terrific job there, but when you know the circumstances are not fair, but there is a way to even the scales, you have to try.

(And, no I don't think Syracuse should be in the tournament, either. I don't think Alabama or Oklahoma should be, either. And Arizona State probably shouldn't be.)

Post by **Shirley** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:09 pm

Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck.

Fuck.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:20 pm

rass · Post by **rass** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:31 pm

Considerate to get injured before Thursday noon.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:53 pm

the mid-majors may not be able to attract the stars but they can be pretty competitive when given the chance, as UCLA is proving tonight.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:05 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:53 pm the mid-majors may not be able to attract the stars but they can be pretty competitive when given the chance, as UCLA is proving tonight.

Don't tire yourself out. You have all week to keep making that joke!

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:22 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:05 pm
Rex wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:53 pm the mid-majors may not be able to attract the stars but they can be pretty competitive when given the chance, as UCLA is proving tonight.
Don't tire yourself out. You have all week to keep making that joke!

Not if UCLA gets beat.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:27 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:22 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:05 pm
Rex wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:53 pm the mid-majors may not be able to attract the stars but they can be pretty competitive when given the chance, as UCLA is proving tonight.
Don't tire yourself out. You have all week to keep making that joke!
Not if UCLA gets beat.

There are still more Big 10/Pac 12 teams!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:10 pm

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:46 am

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:41 am I think UMBC hangs tough.

Standing by this with one of Virginia's bigger guys being hurt. Just want to be on record when the hot takes are counted.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:53 am

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:46 am
A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:41 am I think UMBC hangs tough.
Standing by this with one of Virginia's bigger guys being hurt. Just want to be on record when the hot takes are counted.

How close is "tough?" I think UVA will probably win by 20+. They would have anyway, but they are going to be extra focused on this one now that they are missing a key piece. I suspect UVA will be paying closer attention to their first game than the vast majority of #1 seeds.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:56 am

Within 5 with 5 to play. If you're gonna go hot take, go spicy hot.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:01 am

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:56 am Within 5 with 5 to play. If you're gonna go hot take, go spicy hot.

No chance. I'm not sure there have been more than 8 games this year where the margin was under 5 with 5 left. UMBC isn't going to be one of those.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 am

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:46 amStanding by this with one of Virginia's bigger guys being hurt. Just want to be on record when the hot takes are counted.

Then I want mine in here too, just in case. I wouldn't bet the game, but I think Xavier is as at risk as any #1 you're likely going to see.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:04 am

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 am
A_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:46 amStanding by this with one of Virginia's bigger guys being hurt. Just want to be on record when the hot takes are counted.
Then I want mine in here too, just in case. I wouldn't bet the game, but I think Xavier is as at risk as any #1 you're likely going to see.

They're ranked #14 in Pomeroy. Gotta be the lowest ever for a 1 seed.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:08 am

Yup. And 60th in adjusted D, which is the real trigger for my comment. If they have one of those horror games shooting that any team can have, their (relative) issues on D could help them make history.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:09 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:01 am
A_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:56 am Within 5 with 5 to play. If you're gonna go hot take, go spicy hot.
No chance. I'm not sure there have been more than 8 games this year where the margin was under 5 with 5 left. UMBC isn't going to be one of those.

They got good senior guard play, won't get rattled. Can shoot the three. It's perfect if UVA misses a few shots.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:10 am

I have nothing against Xavier (or any other top team), but I think it would be really fun to see a #1 go down.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am

UMBC lost to Albany by 44 points. Albany

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am

Its been so long that now I want it to be a team that I have something against. Villanova losing would be Christmas.

Post by **brian** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:10 am I have nothing against Xavier (or any other top team), but I think it would be really fun to see a #1 go down.

It's about time. Statistically it should have happened at least once by now.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:13 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am UMBC lost to Albany by 44 points. Albany

In college, there was a running joke where a big Notre Dame fan defended a loss to (I think) Hawaii by saying "yeah but it was AT Hawaii" and your comment made me think of that. It was AT Albany.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:14 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:11 am UMBC lost to Albany by 44 points. Albany

Throw all that noise out.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:16 am

Yeah but they also:

Beat Shenandoah by 29
Split two games at The Bulldog Bash at The Citadel
Swept UNH
Held DeAndre Ayton to 1 assist

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:26 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:16 am Yeah but they also:

Beat Shenandoah by 29
Split two games at The Bulldog Bash at The Citadel
Swept UNH
Held DeAndre Ayton to 1 assist

Shenandoah is a DIII school that W&L beat by 5 and did not make it out of the first round of the ODAC.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:49 pm

wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:26 pm
Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:16 am Yeah but they also:

Beat Shenandoah by 29
Split two games at The Bulldog Bash at The Citadel
Swept UNH
Held DeAndre Ayton to 1 assist
Shenandoah is a DIII school that W&L beat by 5 and did not make it out of the first round of the ODAC.

So, the Shenandoah win isn't as impressive as we thought?

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:51 pm

Everyone knows the early rounds of the ODAC are a total crapshoot.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:52 pm

Go Hornets!