The Swamp

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:21 pm**

So, what do you basketball experts think about the bracket?

I don't know much, but I know that Arizona State finished below .500 in Pac-12 league play and lost in the first round of the conference tournament. And, was one of the three conference teams to make the field? I know that they beat some strong teams early in the season, but USC should have been in over them.

I also wish St. Mary's had been selected.

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:26 pm**

If it were 1950 and football and a bunch of sweaty dudes just voted on the champion Virginia would be an unanimous choice as champion.

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:38 pm**

I need a pool!

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:41 pm**

In keeping with tradition, Bonaventure gets fucked into the play-in game.

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:10 pm**

if missouri wasn't going to missouri and lose in the first round, their bracket is really, really, really set up for a run to the sweet 16 or elite eight

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:20 pm**

sancarlos wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:21 pm So, what do you basketball experts think about the bracket?

I don't know much, but I know that Arizona State finished below .500 in Pac-12 league play and lost in the first round of the conference tournament. And, was one of the three conference teams to make the field? I know that they beat some strong teams early in the season, but USC should have been in over them.

I also wish St. Mary's had been selected.

I agree with you on ASU. ASU and Oklahoma both had strong starts to the season but their terrible recent play should’ve been given more weight. I think the Committee dissed USC and, to a lesser extent Louisville because of their recent scandals.

My other reactions:

1. I think Duke and Michigan State are 2 of the 4 best teams in the country. That’s the strongest Sweet 16 matchup.

2. Arizona and Kentucky are much more dangerous than the 2 and 3 seeds in their region. And there are going to be so many tears about the “demise of college basketball” if one of them beats UVA.

3. Xavier won’t make it past the Sweet Sixteen, at best. Whoever wins the 4/5 matchup in that region will beat them.

4. Villanova has a pretty favorable region but WVU can be annoying to play against if the refs let them get away with all the fouls they commit when they press and trap.

Posted: **Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:23 pm**

Well, Villanova still has to get past lakers.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:38 am**

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:38 pmI need a pool!

meee too

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 am**

Oklahoma State getting passed over really makes no sense, other than the committee punishing teams associated with the fbi thing.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:26 am**

brian wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:26 pm If it were 1950 and football and a bunch of sweaty dudes just voted on the champion Virginia would be an unanimous choice as champion.

Those sweaty dudes knew what was up!

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:29 am**

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 am Oklahoma State getting passed over really makes no sense, other than the committee punishing teams associated with the fbi thing.

14-loss Oklahoma State? I think that's the explanation right there.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:31 am**

BTW, to echo Joe's point above, Arizona and Kentucky scare the hell out of me in Virginia's bracket. When you have talent like that, you can beat anyone on a good day. Virginia's defense is great, but sometimes dudes are just too good to be stopped. That said, I'm not not taking any games for granted (well, after UMBC), so I'm not too worried about those teams yet.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:41 am**

I think UMBC hangs tough.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:48 am**

Shirley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:29 am
tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 am Oklahoma State getting passed over really makes no sense, other than the committee punishing teams associated with the fbi thing.
14-loss Oklahoma State? I think that's the explanation right there.

14-loss Alabama got in

13-loss Oklahoma got in ... who 14-loss Oklahoma State beat twice

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 am**

You can transitive property yourself into La Salle being within like 20 spots of making the tourney. Thats rarely a great argument.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:06 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 am You can transitive property yourself into La Salle being within like 20 spots of making the tourney. Thats rarely a great argument.

the OSU over OU argument is less transitive property and more "look at how terrible OU was in conference play after teams figured out how to guard Trae Young."

I understand wanting to eliminate recency bias as much as possible from the discussion, but I do think conference play is more important than the beginning of the season. And, again, OSU beat OU twice and was a spot ahead in the standings.

But Baylor got left out too, so honestly, I think Baylor is probably the team that should have gotten in at OU's expense. And then OSU.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:40 am**

STRONGLY agree that they've devalued conference play while boosting early season results.

=-=-=-=-=

There's a bit of bitching about MSU getting the "home court" in Detroit over UM (both 3 seeds), but as was kind of alluded to upthread... They can have it as far as I'm concerned. That's a brutal pod. I'd MUCH rather have to face UNC and Xavier to punch a Final Four ticket than Duke and Kansas. Oof.

Not saying I'm counting on anything, because UM can go cold behind the arc. But what's different (and a little scary) about this UM team is that even when they're not shooting well, they have a team D this year that has kept them in/won them games down the stretch. Beilein admitted that the change in the charging rules stymied him, so he's now brought in two defensive specialists coaches and, wow, does it make a difference.

MI got run off the court at the Dean Dome 3 months ago. I think they'd relish a shot at redemption, though with Beilein, that's not the type of thing he typically makes a big deal out of.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:43 am**

If this conversation gets anywhere close to major conference fans bitching about unfairness, I might break something. Just a little FYI.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:45 am**

Shirley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:29 am
tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 am Oklahoma State getting passed over really makes no sense, other than the committee punishing teams associated with the fbi thing.
14-loss Oklahoma State? I think that's the explanation right there.

Didn't OK State beat Kansas - twice? And how are their losses more disqualifying than the 14 loss and 13 loss teams that got in?

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:48 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:43 am If this conversation gets anywhere close to major conference fans bitching about unfairness, I might break something. Just a little FYI.

That's not my point. I just find it weird that Oklahoma is in, for instance, from their own conference where two of their conference-mates were more deserving selections.

The committee always does fucked up stuff. This year the fucked up stuff seemed to involve punishing teams with the FBI thing hanging over their heads, in some part. Which they of course have denied. But, whatevs.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:50 am**

I was just projecting the next step in this. This time every year I get infuriated by the circular "where are your good OoC wins???" bullshit.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:53 am**

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:45 am
Shirley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:29 am
tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 am Oklahoma State getting passed over really makes no sense, other than the committee punishing teams associated with the fbi thing.
14-loss Oklahoma State? I think that's the explanation right there.
Didn't OK State beat Kansas - twice? And how are their losses more disqualifying than the 14 loss and 13 loss teams that got in?

Oklahoma State had a non-conference SOS of 295 (from CBS). Unless I missed anyone, Virginia Tech was the only at-large team in the pool with a worse one.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:11 am**

Buffalo got absolutely fucking hosed with its seeding. Not sure how a team with an RPI of 25 (as imperfect as RPI is) gets a 13 seed. Don't be surprised if they beat Arizona.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:18 am**

The committee has never factored in conference records or standing. Every year I'm surprised by folks who are surprised by this. This exact conversation happens each year. They've always looked at overall record, not just conference.

I have no opinion on whether 14 losses is better or worse than another team's 14 losses, but I do know that if you lost 14 times, you have no legitimate complaint about not getting in. 14 losses!

FWIW, Oklahoma State's Pomeroy ranking is 56. Eight teams with better rankings were also left out.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 am**

USC might be the team that got fucked hardest.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:36 am**

I found it a little surprising and weird that Oklahoma State was the team that the media guys all latched on to, they were barely on the radar. I thought there were 5-6 teams left out that were closer to being in than them. For them, it was a simple case of having a terrible out of conference schedule, as already mentioned.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:37 am**

Pretty clear that you have to have a strong out-of-conference schedule. Otherwise, 28-5 St. Mary's would be in.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:41 am**

If you need a pool, my buddy runs a fun one:

Hi all! This is your final email for this year for Hoopla signup! If you didn't get the first email and want more details, check the website below or email me. Long story short, I run a March Madness pool and hope you will join.

All the seeds are all in the system and you can now fill out your bracket. Thanks to everyone who already got signed up and paid. Deadline to participate is Thursday at 11am!

Signing up

1. Go here: http://www.pickhoops.com/Hoopla
2. Join using the Join Password "austin".
3. Fill out Info
4. Follow the instructions on the Dashboard to make payment - please do this ASAP.

Within your account, you can create up to 2 entries if you'd like (each is $8) - you don't need to create two actual accounts. You can find the scoring & prize details on the website homepage. Note that we have lots of payment options this year: Square Cash, Venmo, Paypal and more.

Deadlines

Deadline is Thursday, 11am Central Time. I likely won't be on email on Thursday morning, so if there are technical issues, I can't help you then. So sign up earlier if possible.

If you have questions, please ask! We have new participants every year, so if you haven't played before, don't be scared! It's great fun, and we pretty much can guarantee you'll be hooked after one year.

Optional Sweet 16 Pool

We will have an optional Sweet 16 pool to be filled out after the first weekend's games. It would be a separate entry, $5 fee and prize. It's kind of like a 2nd chance pool if your main bracket is blown up during the first weekend. That will be set up after the first weekend, and all participants will get a separate email about that.

Tips & Tricks

Here are some random stats from past years - note that the future is not the past!

* Picking first round upsets are always tricky; From 2007-2017, there were 4, 8, 9, 10, 6, 10, 10, 8, 5, 13, and 6 upsets in the first round, respectively, out of 32 games.

* 16 seeds have NEVER won a game. 15 seeds have only won a handful of times in history, but 15 seeds have at least a little bit of success recently. It's dangerous to take out a 2 seed early though - if they go far, most of your competition will be gaining points while you get 0!

* The Final Four mostly consists of top-4 seeds, and all four #1's have only made it once. In recent history, an 8 and 11 both made it (Butler and VCU) one year, #9 Wichita State made it, and then we had a run of top-tier low seed schools make it - #7 UConn and #8 Kentucky in 2014, #7 Michigan State in 2015, #10 Syracuse in 2016, and #7 South Carolina in 2017. It used to be rare, but who knows now? Pick that crazy team right, though, and you're almost guaranteed to win some money.

* Upset picks get you double points, which can be especially valuable in later rounds, but picking them wrong can be really costly early if the favored team goes on to win several games.

Good luck to those who join! And feel free to invite others - we like people.

Hook'em!

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:46 am**

Shirley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:18 am The committee has never factored in conference records or standing. Every year I'm surprised by folks who are surprised by this. This exact conversation happens each year. They've always looked at overall record, not just conference.

I have no opinion on whether 14 losses is better or worse than another team's 14 losses, but I do know that if you lost 14 times, you have no legitimate complaint about not getting in. 14 losses!

FWIW, Oklahoma State's Pomeroy ranking is 56. Eight teams with better rankings were also left out.

I can't speak for others, but I'm fully aware that they didn't technically look at conference record or standing. But almost without exception, looking at the last 10-12 games is looking at how a team is playing against its own conference, particularly as they are a) closing out the season typically gunning for a league title or a bye in the conf. tournament and/or b) playing in the conference tournament.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:50 am**

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:37 am Pretty clear that you have to have a strong out-of-conference schedule. Otherwise, 28-5 St. Mary's would be in.

Which is complete and total bullshit given that mid-majors hold no power in scheduling. I would love to see either mandated matchups or some means of submitting requests centrally where programs get credit for what they would do even if their offers are rejected.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:52 am**

I feel bad for St. Mary's, their season always comes down to how they did in whatever preseason tournament they can manage to get an invite to (the Wooden Legacy this year, they did badly in it), the two games against Gonzaga (they split) and the WCC semifinal against BYU (they lost). So I see how they got left out this year, but that's a very small margin for error.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:54 am**

Rex wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:52 am I feel bad for St. Mary's, their season always comes down to how they did in whatever preseason tournament they can manage to get an invite to (the Wooden Legacy this year, they did badly in it), the two games against Gonzaga (they split) and the WCC semifinal against BYU (they lost). So I see how they got left out this year, but that's a very small margin for error.

That's why BYU (basketball only) and Gonzaga are probably going to be joining the Mountain West and don't be surprised if Saint Mary's begs to come along with them. Could expand to as many as 16 teams for basketball I've read.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:56 am**

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:37 am Pretty clear that you have to have a strong out-of-conference schedule. Otherwise, 28-5 St. Mary's would be in.

Only win of note was against Gonzaga. I'm usually a St. Mary's/Gonzaga advocate, because I think the loser of the conf. tournament final tends to get screwed, but this year?

They need to beat Georgia and Wash. State, two very average large conference teams (neither of which made the tournament). And the loss to San Francisco was brutal for them.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:03 am**

I could take the CIT talk somewhere else, but if you're amped up and jones-ing for some kind of tournament game right this very second, there is a CIT game between Central Michigan and Fort Wayne tipping off at 11 a.m. Central time inexplicably on CBS Sports Network.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:24 am**

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:56 amOnly win of note was against Gonzaga. I'm usually a St. Mary's/Gonzaga advocate, because I think the loser of the conf. tournament final tends to get screwed, but this year?

St Mary's got two games against top 25 teams, both Gonzaga, and won one. Syracuse got eight games against the top 25 and also won one. Louisville was 0-8. Seton Hall 1-5. Creighton was 1-4. Miami 1-4. Texas 2-8. Kansas St. 2-6. Arkansas 2-5. Butler 2-5. USC 0-2.

Its fine to say St. Mary's didn't prove themselves against the top teams, but you have to acknowledge (1) that isn't their fault and (2) like a dozen teams who proved themselves as unable to win against the top 25 did get in. The committee either views wins as gross versus net or gets wowed by 20+ and SoS, which is driven simply by conference affiliation.

(Or, really, its all about money and there are $$$ incentives to bring Syracuse over St. Mary's. The NCAA sucks.)

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:26 am**

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:11 am Buffalo got absolutely fucking hosed with its seeding. Not sure how a team with an RPI of 25 (as imperfect as RPI is) gets a 13 seed. Don't be surprised if they beat Arizona.

Surprised you say this knowing you watched Ayton this weekend. I'll be surprised if Arizona loses to anyone, especially Buffalo. Ayton is worth whatever they paid for him.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:29 am**

Smaller potatoes but Texas Southern has to play in Dayton even though 13 of their 19 losses were to:

Gonzaga
Washington St (OT)
Ohio St
Syracuse
Kansas
Clemson
Oakland
Toledo
Oregon
Baylor
Wyoming
TCU
BYU

All on the road, all in a row to start the year. Their metrics sort of blow anyway and they play in a shit conference with a few losses to shit teams, but I'd give them a 15-seed on principle.

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:31 am**

Having conference winners in the play-in is bullshit (unless they win, then its actually really good because the money means a whole lot more to the smaller conferences).

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:35 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:31 am Having conference winners in the play-in is bullshit (unless they win, then its actually really good because the money means a whole lot more to the smaller conferences).

If it were me I'd make the last 8 at-large teams play all of the play-in games

Posted: **Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:35 am**

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:03 am I could take the CIT talk somewhere else, but if you're amped up and jones-ing for some kind of tournament game right this very second, there is a CIT game between Central Michigan and Fort Wayne tipping off at 11 a.m. Central time inexplicably on CBS Sports Network.

You mean the Hugh Durham Classic.....who is not excited for this game.

Amazed the Terps did not get a sniff at any post-season play. But kinda glad they were not running about in the CIT or CBI.

The Swamp

2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Re: 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament