GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT 2018

[Nonlinear FC]

People are quite often in charge of things because they are in charge of things. Come tell me about the brilliance of the Washington Redskins front office.

The reason message board folks routinely put well thought out posts up is because the people in charge of things so often get things so incredibly wrong.

[mister d]

That he is. But he's got something that I haven't seen from a Bills QB since Flutie - toughness that the team seems to rally around.

Yeah he seems to be easy to root for and the players love him.

To me, Josh Allen is like you were transforming Blake Bortles into an elite QB but your machine broke down 70% of the way through.

Dude! He's a rookie! Don;t be throwing "Losman" and "Bortles" at me yet!

And that "separation stat?" Sounds like some Aaron Schatz wank-fest. In what world are Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Deonte Thompson, Kelvin benjamin and Robert Foster the 6th best unit at anything?

I saw all or the majority of 14 Bills games this year. Those receivers were putrid. Not saying Allen is accurate, but they were certainly not the 6th best at anything other than taking shits in Western New York. (For which they easily led the league)

this is why message board posters are message board posters and not people who run universally-respected football websites and publications

But, is it necessary for you to take a condescending attitude?

But isn't he likely right? Separation can mean receivers are great at getting open but can't it also mean DBs know they don't have to be in their pocket? I'm obviously baseball-centric here, but lots of stats are cool at first and completely fall apart the second you check the output or consider how the inputs could lack continuity across all teams/players.

[Gunpowder]

Interesting. I'm guessing a redraft goes exactly the same 1-2, but what about after that? Darnold doesn't feel like a classic lol Jets pick, but he doesn't feel like a HOFer either.

Jets probably stick with Darnold,

I'm very confident the Jets would stick with Darnold. Despite the high interception rate early in the year, Darnold played really well and showed some flashes of brilliance. Then again, we are used to veritable interception machines McCown and Fitzpatrick, so we are accustomed to frequent rookie mistakes from 40 year olds, so we easily accept them from a 21 year old. Darnold's character and poise are off the charts. The kid doesn't get nervous, and is unbelievable in handling himself making rounds at the children's hospital. (That is now how I judge players). I'm just impressed that a then 20 year asked to spend the morning after the draft visiting the children's hospital. If that was me at 20, getting drafted to a NY team, I'm going out on the town and probably getting a nasty headline in the Post. "Sybian Rides into Town, a Whampin' and Whompin'."

You'd end up like Mark Sanchez, who was probably dating one of the children at the hospital.

[Gunpowder]

So are you saying that the Bills receiving unit was actually good?

Because I am here to tell you that it wasn't.

Some statistics are valid - some are not. Check out "QBR" some time, and then tell me how Jameis Winston is better than Russel Wilson. And yes, ESPN is also a universally-respected sports website while I am but a message board poster, yet they posted that stat, so by your way of thinking, I am wrong for thinking Winston is not anywhere near as good as Wilson.

No. I'm saying that their guys got open a lot and I'm attributing that to scheme. Do you think the Rams WRs just immediately got awesome when Fisher left and McVay came in? Do you think that the 2015 Packers were one of the worst collections of WR talent in NFL history OR do you think the offensive scheme was stagnant?

The Bills WRs struggled to create catches and they also dropped a ton of balls. Because they are bad. But they were schemed open and also helped by Allen's mobility to find space.

There are a lot of throws to open WRs in this game (his best throw isn't shown and was dropped by Benjamin):




Plenty of space to throw into:




It's not like that makes them unique - WRs across the NFL are being schemed open by modern OCs. The claims that the WRs were impossible to work with is just not founded. They hurt Allen a lot, but he also hurt them on many occasions when they were open and he threw it 5 yards behind them.

He's just not going to have WRs doing things like this:

[Gunpowder]

The Bills WRs had some separation in 2015 and 2016. Last year they were dead last because your OC was a fuckin' moron.

You can call it a wank-fest, but I like the idea of defenders not being around my receivers. It's a metric of both scheme and ability in one particular aspect of WR play, that's all. DeAndre Hopkins doesn't get a ton of separation, but he's really awesome because the goal of a WR is to run down the field and catch the ball and do something with it, not just to run a 100m dash and get away from a corner.

Robert Foster can only do one thing but that one thing is getting open deep. That's what he did in high school that made him a top recruit. If your offense depends on Robert Foster running curls (and it would have in 2017), it's not going to work.


EDIT: It also measures total effectiveness. JuJu Smith-Schuster does not get a ton of separation without Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant on the field. It's all tied together.

[Gunpowder]

viewtopic.php?p=181123#p181123

He's got a running back that is made better in large part due to his running abilities and a group of middling WRs.

McCoy's a superstar, the line is average and the receivers are far from middling. Kelvin benjamin aside, those Bills receivers are as bad a unit as you have ever seen.

Even Kelvin Benjamin ain't that good. Everybody wants a big tall WR to throw jump balls to, like Megatron. But Megatron was good because he could jump and catch and run a 4.35 40 and run through a guy and get open. Depending on throwing jump balls to a guy who is never open like Benjamin is dangerous - a lot of those get knocked down or picked and don't make the highlight reels.

That wonky separation stat could have suggested before throwing away a 2nd round pick that Kelvin Benjamin sucks ass.

The 2017 Bills offensive strategy was monumentally dumb. At least Rex Ryan realized what kind of offense they needed to run while he sabotaged their defense. The WRs still suck but they are just used better now. Where they suck is not only dropping passes but - I don't think I've seen one Bills WR this year go up and make a play for Allen.

[Pruitt]

viewtopic.php?p=181123#p181123

He's got a running back that is made better in large part due to his running abilities and a group of middling WRs.

McCoy's a superstar, the line is average and the receivers are far from middling. Kelvin benjamin aside, those Bills receivers are as bad a unit as you have ever seen.

Even Kelvin Benjamin ain't that good. Everybody wants a big tall WR to throw jump balls to, like Megatron. But Megatron was good because he could jump and catch and run a 4.35 40 and run through a guy and get open. Depending on throwing jump balls to a guy who is never open like Benjamin is dangerous - a lot of those get knocked down or picked and don't make the highlight reels.

That wonky separation stat could have suggested before throwing away a 2nd round pick that Kelvin Benjamin sucks ass.

The 2017 Bills offensive strategy was monumentally dumb. At least Rex Ryan realized what kind of offense they needed to run while he sabotaged their defense. The WRs still suck but they are just used better now. Where they suck is not only dropping passes but - I don't think I've seen one Bills WR this year go up and make a play for Allen.

I get what you're saying, but you don't need a new stat to tell you that kelvin Benjamin sucks. Let's agree to disagree - even though I think that ultimately we agree on the quality level of the bills WRs.

[Gunpowder]

viewtopic.php?p=181123#p181123

He's got a running back that is made better in large part due to his running abilities and a group of middling WRs.

McCoy's a superstar, the line is average and the receivers are far from middling. Kelvin benjamin aside, those Bills receivers are as bad a unit as you have ever seen.

Even Kelvin Benjamin ain't that good. Everybody wants a big tall WR to throw jump balls to, like Megatron. But Megatron was good because he could jump and catch and run a 4.35 40 and run through a guy and get open. Depending on throwing jump balls to a guy who is never open like Benjamin is dangerous - a lot of those get knocked down or picked and don't make the highlight reels.

That wonky separation stat could have suggested before throwing away a 2nd round pick that Kelvin Benjamin sucks ass.

The 2017 Bills offensive strategy was monumentally dumb. At least Rex Ryan realized what kind of offense they needed to run while he sabotaged their defense. The WRs still suck but they are just used better now. Where they suck is not only dropping passes but - I don't think I've seen one Bills WR this year go up and make a play for Allen.

I get what you're saying, but you don't need a new stat to tell you that kelvin Benjamin sucks. Let's agree to disagree - even though I think that ultimately we agree on the quality level of the bills WRs.

Fair enough. Yeah, they are one of the worst groups in the NFL.

My point was not that you need a stat to tell you now, but instead that this could have suggested that he sucked before it was obvious. I hated that trade from the start, while much of Bills Twitter thought it was a steal last year.

[Brontoburglar]

So are you saying that the Bills receiving unit was actually good?

Because I am here to tell you that it wasn't.

Some statistics are valid - some are not. Check out "QBR" some time, and then tell me how Jameis Winston is better than Russel Wilson. And yes, ESPN is also a universally-respected sports website while I am but a message board poster, yet they posted that stat, so by your way of thinking, I am wrong for thinking Winston is not anywhere near as good as Wilson.

simple and serious questions:

Can you explain QBR -- and why QBR is bad for showing Jameis Winston ahead of Russell Wilson? And the same for the separation stat and why it not fitting your confirmation bias is bad?

or did you just call it a wank-fest because it didn't fit your confirmation bias?

ETA: I didn't scroll to the next page

and ETA2: I loled at the condescending thing

[Pruitt]

So are you saying that the Bills receiving unit was actually good?

Because I am here to tell you that it wasn't.

Some statistics are valid - some are not. Check out "QBR" some time, and then tell me how Jameis Winston is better than Russel Wilson. And yes, ESPN is also a universally-respected sports website while I am but a message board poster, yet they posted that stat, so by your way of thinking, I am wrong for thinking Winston is not anywhere near as good as Wilson.

simple and serious questions:

Can you explain QBR -- and why QBR is bad for showing Jameis Winston ahead of Russell Wilson? And the same for the separation stat and why it not fitting your confirmation bias is bad?

or did you just call it a wank-fest because it didn't fit your confirmation bias?

ETA: I didn't scroll to the next page

and ETA2: I loled at the condescending thing

Point is just that any NFL fan who isn't a 12 year old in Tampa will know that Wilson is far, far better than Winston and had a much better season.

So any stat that shows Winston ahead of Wilson - and remember, this is a stat designed to show overall quality - is of no use whatsoever.

[Brontoburglar]

so it's a no on the first two and a yes on the third

[Pruitt]

so it's a no on the first two and a yes on the third

1) I explained why I didn't think the QBR is a valid way to measure QBs.

2) The Separation stat is unnecessary when there are other stats that measure WRs talent levels. You like this one, than fine, use it.

3) And if it fits your confirmation bias, than yes - I am a fucking idiot.

And the fact that I am getting worked up over this idiotic trolling is really bugging me. have a good year buddy.

[mister d]

I absolutely think you can invalidate a stat (or what the stat purports to measure) based on its outputs. I don’t think any early defensive stat makes it out the door showing Jeter is elite and Ozzie sucked regardless of how solid the methodology looked.

[Brontoburglar]

I absolutely think you can invalidate a stat (or what the stat purports to measure) based on its outputs. I don’t think any early defensive stat makes it out the door showing Jeter is elite and Ozzie sucked regardless of how solid the methodology looked.

Without a doubt. I'm not defending QBR here in the slightest. Nor am I making an all stats are good and should not be criticized argument. But there's a line between criticizing a stat and calling it a "wank-fest" when you don't know what it means and think you disagree with it.

I'll fully admit I could have been nicer. But an actual reasoned argument could have also been made in the first place. It wasn't.

[govmentchedda]

So are you saying that the Bills receiving unit was actually good?

Because I am here to tell you that it wasn't.

Some statistics are valid - some are not. Check out "QBR" some time, and then tell me how Jameis Winston is better than Russel Wilson. And yes, ESPN is also a universally-respected sports website while I am but a message board poster, yet they posted that stat, so by your way of thinking, I am wrong for thinking Winston is not anywhere near as good as Wilson.

simple and serious questions:

Can you explain QBR -- and why QBR is bad for showing Jameis Winston ahead of Russell Wilson? And the same for the separation stat and why it not fitting your confirmation bias is bad?

or did you just call it a wank-fest because it didn't fit your confirmation bias?

ETA: I didn't scroll to the next page

and ETA2: I loled at the condescending thing

Point is just that any NFL fan who isn't a 12 year old in Tampa will know that Wilson is far, far better than Winston and had a much better season.

So any stat that shows Winston ahead of Wilson - and remember, this is a stat designed to show overall quality - is of no use whatsoever.

What beef do you have with my son?


ETA - nevermind, he's not a sports fan

[duff]

I absolutely think you can invalidate a stat (or what the stat purports to measure) based on its outputs. I don’t think any early defensive stat makes it out the door showing Jeter is elite and Ozzie sucked regardless of how solid the methodology looked.

Without a doubt. I'm not defending QBR here in the slightest. Nor am I making an all stats are good and should not be criticized argument. But there's a line between criticizing a stat and calling it a "wank-fest" when you don't know what it means and think you disagree with it.

I'll fully admit I could have been nicer. But an actual reasoned argument could have also been made in the first place. It wasn't.

Sports fans don't make reasoned arguments when it comes to their favorite teams. You of all people should know this. And you did come off as a complete asshole, but that has been more of a norm for you when you decide to grace us with your presence. Maybe you should go back to your basement and your seven television.

[A_B]

I didn’t think it was over the top dickish. That’s one of the most respected outlets there is and this site has generally been pretty open to analytics and critical of joe Morgan “I know good when I see it” type responses.

[Gunpowder]

Is anything really more condescending than "Well I watched the Bills receivers this year, and that is enough to firmly determine that you are wrong and your points are fabricated"?

[Pruitt]

Is anything really more condescending than "Well I watched the Bills receivers this year, and that is enough to firmly determine that you are wrong and your points are fabricated"?

I don't know why I feel a need to explain myself here further - but what I intended to say was that I don't agree with that particular statistic. I also think that the best way to judge performance in sports is by watching, not by analyzing. And that is not to say that statistical analysis isn't helpful - because clearly it is. I just don't believe that all statistics are useful.

But I am still unsure as to why the term "wank fest" seems to have hit a nerve.

[Brontoburglar]

At the risk of further "trolling" I do not understand

I also think that the best way to judge performance in sports is by watching, not by analyzing

because to analyze a sport -- something done in this thread -- you have to watch it! I don't think the FO guys (and other people) are making up statistics without watching the games.

ETA: If I'm the condescending one here after reacting to condescension, so be it.

[Ryan]

At the risk of further "trolling" I do not understand

I also think that the best way to judge performance in sports is by watching, not by analyzing

because to analyze a sport -- something done in this thread -- you have to watch it! I don't think the FO guys (and other people) are making up statistics without watching the games.

I'm mostly with you in the big picture, but I bet there are thousands of people employed by pro sports teams that do exactly that

[Brontoburglar]

sadly, you are very likely not wrong

[mister d]

Throwing back to the old RiverAveBlues comments section from the 00s, I'm pretty sure its less dangerous to analyze watching zero games but understanding the sport than it is to analyze watching the games, but with 50%+ of that watching being one team.

[Gunpowder]

Watching over "analyzing" (ignoring that I watch a lot of games) is why Sabermetrics never took hold in baseball and everyone is still sticking to the gritty scouts with eyes method.

Anyway as another example of scheme, Carolina's WRs have long been hot trash but they finally got rid of their dumbass OC before this season and suddenly, the WRs are functional. Same in Indianapolis.

The highest percentage of balls thrown into open windows in 2017? None other than Carson Wentz, who definitely did not have anywhere near the best WRs and the best of his guys was a contested catch guy who doesn't get a ton of separation.

[BSF21]

The highest percentage of balls thrown into open windows in 2017? None other than Carson Wentz,

That's rude and could be very dangerous in the kitchen area. Play outside.

[mister d]

“Into” implies they’re already playing outside.

[A_B]

You bunch and the condescension! SIMMER DOWN, GUYS.

[Gunpowder]

Classy move by the Steelers.

Steelers convert most of Ryan Shazier's 2018 salary to a signing bonus.

They also don't have to pay him this year, and it's admirable to some degree that they are paying him $400K, but this move is why they can do that instead of keeping his contract this year at $9 mil.

[Gunpowder]

This is always my fear with a college QB throwing into huge windows moving to the NFL. Mariota couldn't do it. Mayfield is still early but he's showing bad signs. Kyler Murray looks like he'll be ok and so does Burrow.

[mister d]

And obviously Darnold is on the path to superstardom?

[The Sybian]

And obviously Darnold is on the path to superstardom?

I really don't think Darnold is the problem. The line has been terrible and they've had no run game. He doesn't have much of a receiving corp either. That said, he missed some throws last week I thought were pretty easy.

[Gunpowder]

And obviously Darnold is on the path to superstardom?

The Winstonian qualities reared their head from his very first NFL throw.

[Gunpowder]

And obviously Darnold is on the path to superstardom?

I really don't think Darnold is the problem. The line has been terrible and they've had no run game. He doesn't have much of a receiving corp either. That said, he missed some throws last week I thought were pretty easy.

His WRs aren't great but they are decent and not really an excuse right now. Gase is always an excuse but you can't live a long life as an NFL starting QB by Jameising. He's just throwing wildly when he doesn't need to and he's not Pat Mahomes so it doesn't work.

[Gunpowder]

Some top level prognostication on Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph.

I still think Allen is a huge outlier and teams are going to make huge mistakes drafting "the next Josh Allen" types like Desmond Ridder.

I watched some more of Rudolph and while his short-to-intermediate throws are actually not really all that good, he still looked like a completely different guy in college and he either just can't process fast enough for the NFL or there's just some other mental intangible that didn't translate to this level.

[mister d]

Too many black guys running at him.

[Gunpowder]

He was really, reallllly good at avoiding said black guys at Oklahoma State. Probably his best strength. In the NFL he's looked frenetic as hell from day 1.

[The Sybian]

Some top level prognostication on Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph.

I still think Allen is a huge outlier and teams are going to make huge mistakes drafting "the next Josh Allen" types like Desmond Ridder.

I watched some more of Rudolph and while his short-to-intermediate throws are actually not really all that good, he still looked like a completely different guy in college and he either just can't process fast enough for the NFL or there's just some other mental intangible that didn't translate to this level.

I can't help wondering what their careers would look like if the Jets drafted Allen and Darnold went to the Bills. After their rookie years, I thought Darnold looked more like to develop into a quality QB. Allen obviously was much more of a running threat, but I thought he relied on his legs too much and wasn't going to develop enough accuracy to be a pocket passer. If Allen was on the Jets with Gase, super-conservative play calling and a complete lack of weapons or offensive line, I don't think he would have developed into a quality starter. I don't think Darnold had the potential to be anywhere near as good as Allen turned out, but I think he had the tools to be a good QB. Gase and the horrendous players around him shattered his confidence (and his body). I was really hoping he could turn it around in Carolina, but that didn't go well for him. Losing McCaffrey didn't help, but he just didn't look that good after Week 4.

[rass]

I am also not fuckin happy that Lamar Jackson is a Raven.

But I do really like Terrell Edmunds.

I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.

Martavis is available!

[Gunpowder]

Haaa definitely a smart move to trade him and Terrell Edmunds was ok at best. TODD