The Swamp

Lamar Jackson is basically throwing into periscopes when he doesn't create space for WRs with his legs. So anytime he's a little off, he's going to look very inaccurate. Josh Rosen also throws into small windows but he often seems to not realize how small the window is, which I think will be his undoing in the NFL. Allen is similar and just makes baffling decisions.

I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:08 am I think the huge takeaway from this graphic is how many of these picks SUCKED. The only pick you could give an A to would be Marshall Faulk probably.

Chris Samuels was pretty damn good for a decade.

Yeah, that's why I said arguably. He would be the only other one I would rate as a possible A though. I wouldn't argue Samuels though.

Here's an interesting article that relates to that...even with the first overall pick, you would expect to average Corey Dillon. There are so few stars in any particular draft yet people have high expectations for all of these top 5 and even top 10 selections.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... aft-picks/

I mean ... that's horrible analysis in that article. You don't look at the median or mean because if you extend that logic, no player better than Corey Dillon can exist.

I would think a bigger issue would be looking at career over first few years/prime but I don't really know what you are getting at. My point is that the players the majority of the time aren't nearly as good as people think.

But that's because they're either way better or complete busts. Corey Dillon at 1-1 is a bad result, not "what should be expected" in a single year.

I think that a lot of people know that they're probably getting Corey Dillon, but they still get excited because they know that a top tier pick is their best shot at getting a future hall-of-famer.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:13 pm But that's because they're either way better or complete busts. Corey Dillon at 1-1 is a bad result, not "what should be expected" in a single year.

That's how every single average in the history of anything works. My point is that the actual players taken have not been as good as people think that they have been historically, which is what the tweet Brian posted showed. The average number one pick has Corey Dillon's career.

Awesome Players since 1980 (10):

1. Clowney
2. Luck
3. Newton
4. Eli Manning (giving him ring credit)
5. Peyton Manning
6. Orlando Pace
7. Aikman
8. Bo Jackson (I'm going to count his career for the sake of the drill and you can argue he's more Dillon than star)
9. Bruce Smith
10. Elway


Full-fledged Busts (9):

11. Russell
12. Carr
13. Courtney Brown
14. Couch (probably)
15. Ki-Jana Carter
16. Emtman
17. Jeff George (you could argue he's a Dillon)
18. Aundray Bruce
19. Kenneth Sims


Corey Dillons (16):

20. Winston (so far)
21. Fisher
22. Bradford
23. Jake Long
24. Mario Williams
25. Alex Smith
26. Carson Palmer
27. Vick
28. Keyshawn Johnson
29. Dan Wilkinson
30. Bledsoe
31. Russell Maryland
32. Testaverde
33. Fryar
34. George Rogers
35. Billy Sims


The most likely result is a good but not all-time great player.

You wound me.

I looked at draft classes a few years ago and found that the average draft class produces either 1 or 2 players that even get a 2nd contract from the team that drafted them. Drafted players are massively overvalued in April.

It wasn't his math, that's fine, it was his analysis and the conclusion "that is the kind caliber player one should expect to draft". Even acknowledging the average production, the expectation should be a superstar unless you're in one of those superstar-less drafts because not getting a superstar is almost always a failure, either of drafting or coaching or the player himself. Maybe I'm not phrasing it right, but even knowing how sports franchises tend to be conservative, do you think any GM at 1-1 would or should take guaranteed Corey Dillon production over even a known 70% chance of a bust?

(Also ... Vick and Bo in different categories?)

Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.

Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:24 pm Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.

So, you're saying that Corey Dillon was better than just a Corey Dillon.

Hope you guys are right.

I want on record New England trades up for the “too smart” kid and extends their dynasty another decade and a half.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:47 am I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.

Very relieved/pleased with the Chubb selection.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:35 pm I want on record New England trades up for the “too smart” kid and extends their dynasty another decade and a half.

Rosen will be the best QB taken in the first round of this draft. I feel pretty confident in that statement. Though I think Lamar Jackson may ultimately be the best.

Elway’s political leanings prevented them from taking Rosen.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:47 pm Elway’s political leanings prevented them from taking Rosen.

That's one reason I was afraid they'd pick Josh Allen. (That, and the fact that Allen is semi-local.)

I’m glad morts there but he’s really struggling.

Kiper is washed. Just compared josh Allen to one of the five best left handed pitchers of all time(he big unit)

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:46 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:47 am I hope I'm wrong, but I have an ominous feeling that the Broncos are going to end up with Josh Allen.

Very relieved/pleased with the Chubb selection.

Glad you are because local sports radio is not. I've never heard so much complaining on radio.

That dudes gonna be good.

wow, Steelers getting Lamar

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar

I think pats take him.

What happens if the Patriots hand up a card that just says "all of the rest of the players"?

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:27 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar

I think pats take him.

Wrong, AB!

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:27 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:23 pm wow, Steelers getting Lamar

I think pats take him.

Browns could still get him.
\
I had a sneaking suspicion that the bills would go for the QB out of the "Class of 2018" that the most people had soured on.

I don’t care about the NFL, but I care the Patriots didn’t do a real good thing.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:49 pm (Also ... Vick and Bo in different categories?)

Vick was mostly decent, not great.

Bo had a meh career but I'm counting him in the top list because he was so unbelievably good when he was actually on the field. He played like the expectation of a number 1 pick.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.

Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:24 pm Just to say Corey Dillon was really really good. Held the single game rushing record and played at a high level through the pats years. The draft points still stand but Dillon was way better than he gets credit for.

He certainly was. I used to love Corey Dillon as a player. I'm putting down good players as Dillons.

I am also not fuckin happy that Lamar Jackson is a Raven.

But I do really like Terrell Edmunds.

I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:34 pm I'm also putting on record that I think trading martavis Bryant is insanely stupid. He's the difference between good offense and great offense and was going to be the reason they beat NE until AB got hurt. Brown killed the Ravens in November because they were doubling Bryant.

They'll draft some WR in the 4th round that's insanely good like they always do.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:32 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.

Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.

No argument however I’d say he’s probably better than Cam right now with a caveat that Cam still has a better upside and that Stafford can still end up in the great status.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:25 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:32 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:56 pm Pretty Staffordesque that he made none of those lists.

Whoops. Right now I'd call him a Dillon.

No argument however I’d say he’s probably better than Cam right now with a caveat that Cam still has a better upside and that Stafford can still end up in the great status.

I'd argue vehemently against it but it's not indefensible.

I just think Cam is in an offense that has no business functioning at the NFL level and he's the only reason that it does.