The Swamp

It's that time of the year...not draft time, of course. That's not for a few weeks. It's GUNPOWDER MOCK DRAFT time.

As usual, this is not "based" on anything - it's a hybrid of how I feel the draft WILL unfold and how I think the draft SHOULD unfold. Sometimes I purposely keep players I really don't like (e.g. Jabrill Peppers) out of the first round, but usually not if they are extremely likely to be a high selection (Josh Allen, etc.). I will however often drop those guys way below where they are projected to and probably will land out of principle. This also, as previous iterations, carries the Gunpowder Guarantee that everything laid out in this exercise is a 100% leadpipe lock to happen exactly as predicted in the actual draft.
Let's get to it.


1. CLEVELAND BROWNS - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Let me get this out of the way first....interviews, white board stuff, etc. all matter greatly for the QBs and I'm not there. I have no idea how knowledgable they each are, how they are relating to teammates, exactly what they were supposed to be doing in their offense, etc. Anything we hear also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Some of it is exaggerated rumor or just plain misinformation put out to reporters by people who have a reason to do so. For example, do I think there may be something different about Josh Rosen? Yeah, I do. Do I think all of his teammates hate him? Come on, man. So I ignore most of it unless I have a feeling myself that something is an issue, in which case I'll weigh it accordingly and make it clear that it is an opinion.

So that out of the way, I'm going to guess that the Browns take Darnold first overall and do not trade the pick or take Saquon Barkley or wait until 4 overall to take whatever QB is left because...they aren't "all the same", like so many people are suggesting. On the flipside, there are so many good QB prospects in this draft that I think to some degree we are nitpicking the hell out of them to some degree (and ignoring nits with Rosen and Allen for some reason). Anyway, since the Browns have a football guy now, they take the QB. In reality, and you can look back and read this, the plan previously was believed to be acquiring draft capital and putting off the QB selection until this year, when all of the great prospects would be available. That's conveniently out the window now, though, as football guy Jack Dorsey rides in to the rescue to draft a QB, watch the tape, piss on all the stats people (IN THEIR MOM'S BASEMENT! Hahahahah because I guess their parents are always divorced) and resurrect the franchise before destroying the team's cap by overpaying marginal talents and older stars.

Darnold has some Andrew Luck in him. He also has some Jameis Winston:





He also has a tendency to immediately roll out to his right...not sure how many are by design or if he gets skittish easily due to whatever reason(s). But outside of the dumb throws, and many are also from the pocket, he seems to be the most well-rounded of the QB group. He looks like if Andrew Luck had a younger brother that liked to impersonate Russell Wilson. Not as big and strong as Luck, but bigger than the other QBs in this class except for maybe Allen (I don't mean just height). Good arm, not great. Mechanics not great, but largely good and consistent. Makes a lot of tough throws into coverage that could be dangerous, but so does Luck. If he can cut down on the dumb throws, he'll be fine. And I think he will...his WRs are USC were atrocious. So bad. Maybe not worse than Allen's, but when factoring in the competition, I think he had it worse than any of these guys in terms of supporting cast. So I still think that Darnold is the first pick, even if his star has faded since last season (2016).

I know the Browns have Tyrod Taylor, and I like Tyrod, but Tyrod Taylor on essentially a one-year deal with options doesn't keep you from drafting your perceived long-term guy at the top of the draft. Even if you were the biggest Tyrod Taylor fan in the world, dude is damn near 30. Browns go old school and draft a QB and not a calculator hahahahahahahahaahah ROFL


2. NY GIANTS - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

Alright. This is by all accounts not going to happen. However, I think Rudolph is the best QB in this draft, and I want to give the Giants a QB, and I also think he fits their system brilliantly, so I'm not going to dance around that just to match online draft projections. In truth, they mean jackshit, and hell, last year Pat Mahomes and DeShaun Watson showed just that. No one thought Kevin Byard was going 2nd round, or that LeVeon Bell was going ahead of Eddie Lacy, or so on and so on. Talent is talent.

Point two - these teams often telegraph who they are interested in. Pre-draft visits, pro days, dinner meetings, etc etc. I don't have time to track that and I'm not interested in doing so either, so I ignore them much of the time unless it's obvious. If I think a team should draft a guy, I'm going to make that their pick, even if in real life they have shown no interest in that player and thus probably aren't going in that direction. I'm just a guy doing mock drafts for fun in his spare time. You get what you pay for.

Anyway, there are two traditional drop back QBs in this draft, Rudolph and Rosen. And only one of those seems like he'll be really good. Rudolph is great at creating space in the pocket and if he isn't pressured, he'll sit in it as long as he needs to before finding a good throw (that, btw, is in my opinion one of the most significant reasons that Aaron Rodgers is so good). Yeah, he has decorated WRs, and this is a Big XII spread offense so there a few occasions each game where guys are running open downfield, but mostly these guys aren't getting much separation. Rudolph is throwing into tight windows and throwing them open. They are particularly adept at the catch point, and that helps, but without a top QB, I don't think this offense is very good. Oddly enough, if Rudolph were worse and struggled, I think people would actually think he was better and would blame his supporting cast (the Allen Effect). People forget that Peyton Manning also had a first round WR - turns out that it was Manning making that offense go, not Marcus Nash.

And the Giants? Well, they have great WRs and a statue of a QB. Rudolph isn't a statue (same 40 time as Kirk Cousins) but he will function best in that style of offense. Eli was not nearly as bad as people think last year, but he wasn't nearly as good as many of his defenders say. He was average-y, and he's just going to continue to decline. At MOST you have two more decent years. Take your last chance with Eli this upcoming year and draft a QB in an epic QB draft while you have a chance. If you don't, you may not again. Let's say you go 7-9 and it's clear Eli is done. And then next year is say the 2009 draft. Your replacement is Josh Freeman. Let's say it's 2010. Tebow? Clausen? If it's 2011...Jake Locker? Blaine Gabbert? CHRISTIAN PONDER???

Keep that in mind when you talk about getting a QB later when you "actually need" one. This draft is a 1983 type of draft for QB prospects. And back then, Marino was picked apart and fell. Probably because there were so many QBs available so they all blended together in people's eyes, each looking less impressive than they would if there were just one or two. Like, Matt Stafford. If Matt Stafford were in this draft, everybody would wonder why his completion percentage were under 60 and why he threw so many picks. And yeah, you may draft Todd Blackledge. You may also draft Vernon Gholson. What's the difference? If your QB is pushing 40, and a top QB prospect is available (that you like, obviously)....take him. Most teams don't go Manning to Luck...they go Manning to Siemian.


3. NY JETS - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Do I think this will happen? No. But, I think the Giants should take a QB, and I don't like Rosen or Allen. The Jets are pretty much a lock to go QB, so that leaves Mayfield or Jackson. Which one do I think is more likely to go here? I like Jackson more, but I think it would be Mayfield. Draw your own conclusions.

Mayfield gets compared to Russell Wilson a lot, and I see it. I see a lot of Russell Wilson in many QBs, because they are all running around. Do you know why? Because a lot of pro teams don't run "pro style" offenses anymore. That's arguably one reason why there are so many decent-to-good young QBs these days. These offenses are easier to run and lead to efficient passing numbers and it's all Andy Reid's fault. Alex Smith can't function in a "pro style" offense. Put him in Reid's, and it covers up many of his flaws while making him look elite statistically. Is he elite? No. Could he be? Yes. Alex Smith is one of the biggest what-ifs of this era. DId Urban Meyer ruin him? Did he never have it in him to play actual QB? Whatever it was, Alex Smith is a good athlete and great downfield passer who refuses to throw downfield. He can't sit in a pocket for more than 3 seconds and senses pressure coming from 20 yards away, and thus misses a TON of open throws downfield to run into 2 yard gains or hit his back for 6 yards. Makes the stats look good, but in the end it hurts your team and you end up losing playoff games you should win and skating off to Washington as an underrated star while Andy Reid is again saddled with a can't win the big one! stigma. They should have beat Pittsburgh by 10 points last year and should have beaten Tennessee by just as much. He is what everyone thinks Tyrod Taylor is. Anyway, that's today's NFL for many teams.

And that's what Baker Mayfield does. He has some Russ Wilson in him but nobody seems to compare him to Mariota and that's the offense I think he's running at Oklahoma. People rave about his completion percentage and thus his accuracy, but....he's throwing to wide open receivers. Wiiiiide the f open. If he didn't have the highest completion percentage of this group, something is wrong. Is he all a creation of scheme? No. He does throw accurately, particularly shorter deep routes. He'll throw great passes on the run right over a tight end's shoulder with three defenders around him. He throws darts, just like Wilson. It's almost like Mariota impersonating Wilson. He seems to struggle, however, on go routes/fades down the sideline and short throws into tight windows. The latter could be a huge concern, if he gets thrown into the wrong offense and forced to be Tom Brady or Phil Rivers. Just keep him away from Mike Mularkey and he'll be fine. He would wreck shop in Kansas City. He'll have to settle for the Jets.

Oh, and stop comparing him to Manziel. He doesn't move around for the same reasons Manziel did. Both are shorter. Both have, I guess, SWAG. But one was definitely a drug addict and an alcoholic. Maybe Mayfield is too, but until he starts blowing lines after the draft, I'm going to assume he's not in Vegas under an assumed identity when he should be studying his playbook.


4. (TRADE) BUFFALO BILLS trade with CLEVELAND BROWNS (give up both first rounders and change) - JOSH ALLEN, QB (I think), Wyoming

I hate Josh Allen as a prospect (I'm sure he's a fine young man). All of the bad that comes with Alex Smith? That's Josh Allen. He's like Josh McCown on meth. Josh McCown is a 40 year old rookie who stumbles out of clean pockets to throw into triple coverage that he should have seen coming from a mile away, and yet he still is thought of as an underrated QB and great mentor type for some reason because he throws a pretty deep ball every couple drives. Josh Allen is that in a younger, more athletic body. He's got the big arm. He can run. He throws effortlessly. He makes amazing highlight throws regularly:





BUT....he more regularly does idiotic things. He runs out of clean pockets into sacks. He gets off balance and misses his WR by 5 yards. He blindly throws into double coverage. He floats backside sideline passes that are pick-sixed by a DB that actually has to time his break lest he get there too early. He throws checkdowns 10 feet over the WR's head. He does so much awful shit that the good doesn't do nearly enough to compensate.

But he gets the defense of, how can anyone win with this shitty supporting cast? That definitely matters, but he's also playing shitty teams. He has many instances of his shitty WRs being open, and he's missing them by a mile. He has plenty of plays where the shitty OL gives him a good pocket, and he runs out of it early into a sack. He has multiple plays with a wide open checkdown, yet he's oblivious to the pressure and takes a bad sack or decides he's throwing deep into triple coverage. He gets all the excuses that Christian Hackenberg got. I read that comparison a lot now, but I've been using it for months. Here's what I said in March of 2016 about Hackenberg when he was getting defended by a ton of people for having to suffer through a spread-type scheme as his draft stock plummeted:

"I watched so many plays where there was a normal dropback pass called, the shitty line did protect, a shitty WR did get open, and Hackenberg stepped up in a clean pocket and either bounced the ball to him or threw it 5 yards over his head.

Franklin may have hindered him but he also did more than his fair share of sucking."

This isn't Sam Darnold having everything go right and his shitty WR, who is barely open, lets the ball hit off his face and bounce to a safety. This is a more functional version of Hackenberg with more consistency and better peak plays. Funnily enough, his boring pro style offense gets blamed while for Hackenberg, he also got the excuse that he needed a boring pro style offense. The reason is that he sucked as a prospect and was always going to look bad. I feel the same way about Allen, but the ties to Buffalo are out there so I can't ignore that Buffalo needs a QB and likes Mayfield and Allen. The Bills mafia will love Allen - he'll make some huge plays up there in the snow and might will them to a couple wins and he'll get excuses for every bad thing he does for a year or two. But...here's the thing about Buffalo. Buffalo DOES have shitty personnel that actively hampers the QB's performance. They ran Tyrod Taylor out of town but came up with excuses for Nate Peterman. And you know what? You CAN excuse some of Peterman's atrocious play. But that's the point. Nate Peterman exposed just how truly awful that team was. It had NO business in the playoffs. None. The WRs are plodders who are never open and struggled to catch when they were. The scheme was boring as hell just like Allen's at Wyoming. Mayfield would be a disaster in that scheme. Taylor was at times (particularly in the playoff loss when Jacksonville just erased every predictable route by each unathletic WR and ran right through their OL). Allen will be right at home. And he will probably struggle, and they will probably win 6 games.

Could Josh Allen excel? Yes. If he learns to keep himself under control, and throws WRs open before their breaks, and makes anticipatory throws into tight windows, yes. He could. He's got the talent and the ability when he actually puts it all together. But will he? I'd bet heavily against it. Carson Wentz is like Allen in a lot of ways, he misses a lot of WRs, makes great plays with his athleticism, etc. But Carson Wentz doesn't make the bad plays like Allen. He makes enough throws in the pocket to keep his offense moving until the big plays present themselves. But let's not forget that Carson Wentz plays in an offense where his backup just won a Super Bowl and many of his flaws are covered up. To me, Allen is Alex Smith without the good parts. Josh McCown with pedigree. He's gonna struggle mightily if he has a bad fit on a bad team IMO - moreso than most QBs. But he's not hopeless, like Hackenberg was.


5. DENVER BRONCOS - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Whoa! Five QBs! Yes. Five QBs. Kirk Cousins just got $90 mil guaranteed. KIRK COUSINS. He's the definition of mediocrity, Andy Dalton without the opportunity to even have playoff meltdowns. The man that you can beat with the prevent defense - he'll throw for 340 yards and score 20 points. Case Keenum got $18 mil a year. Jameis Winston has actively regressed each year, gotten Lovie Smith fired and he's gonna get a massive contract soon. QBs are gold. If you have one, you pay him whatever it takes. If you don't, you do whatever it takes to find one. Last year, Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson were considered highly flawed 2nd round prospects. (Sidenote: why Pat Mahomes, who is a significantly better version of Josh Allen as a college QB, was ranked so low, I don't understand). Teams gave up boatloads of picks to move up and take them in the top half of the first. So in an era where this is the case, and a bunch of elite QB prospects available, hell yeah I'm mocking all of these QBs at the top. Any year where there are two guys like this, they go one-two. This year there's 6 of them.

So that gets us to Lamar Jackson. King of the hot takes. Running QB! Nevermind that half of these guys need to run in order to set up their passing and can barely function without it. Ignore that Ben Roethlisberger needs to run around more and get out of the pocket because that's where he's at his best. Because when it comes to Lamar Jackson, we need a pocket QB. A QB that can make multiple reads! A QB that doesn't depend on his feet! So....Mason Rudolph? Nope, he's gonna go 2nd round according to most. Baker Mayfield! It's ridiculous to me.

Here's the thing with Lamar Jackson - the whiteboard stuff if true, does matter. The mom as agent stuff - might matter, but might not and will absolutely not matter for the reasons most people say it will. He struggles to communicate with the media, has a bit of a speech impediment, and it makes him look dumb sometimes. QBs don't sound like that, typically. Supposedly got a 13 on the Wonderlic. Could it matter? It might. But he seemed to be able to run a "pro style" (hate that term) offense at Louisville, and presumably will be able to call a play at the NFL level. He does get lazy with his mechanics sometimes and sails passes. This is all true.

But with Lamar Jackson, it is blown to nuclear proportions and he is hammered into a role to fit his narrative. Dumb, running QB. I'll listen to you if you don't think Lamar Jackson will be a great NFL QB. Absolutely. His arm isn't elite. He does have accuracy issues at times. He is slight of frame. But if you think he's Kordell Stewart? I don't know what to tell you. If you think he should switch to WR? I don't know what to tell you. Josh Allen is a great athlete, should we put him at tight end? Even Tebow was a QB until he proved he wasn't. And Lamar Jackson is light years ahead of Tebow. He's better than Kordell Stewart was in college. He's better than RGIII. I think he's better than Josh Allen as a college prospect. Better than Rosen. Better than Mayfield too, but that one's close for me. If you tell me that Lamar Jackson cannot stay in the pocket and make a throw? I don't think you've watched him play all that much. If you say he can't make more than one read? I don't think you've watched him all that much.

Baken Mayfield would probably not make this play:



Josh Allen will NEVER make this play:



He's got the 2nd best pocket presence in this draft behind Rudolph. But nobody cares, because he's a runner. He's RGIII!

Here's the thing - being able to run isn't bad. Being able to run opens you up to making plays that aren't available to lesser athletic QBs. Being a runner is why Aaron Rodgers is not just a great QB but is instead probably the greatest QB of all time. (Sidenote: being really good is why people thought Aaron Rodgers was washed up while he was playing out of his mind in 2015 and being dragged down by an interdimensionally shitty offense while Kirk Cousins is considered a top 10 QB playing well in spite of the receivers that he continually misses downfield). Being a runner gives you a margin for error. Where it becomes bad is when you look for it before it presents itself, like Mike Vick. Kind of like Alex Smith. Johnny Manziel is a unique case who would not be able to function as a QB but once you allow him to set up his throws with his legs, he can not only play QB but make it to the NFL. That's not Jackson. Carson Wentz is a running QB. It lifts him to MVP level play. Tyrod Taylor's running was the only way Buffalo's offense would function at times. Andrew Luck's running let's him extend plays and keeps defenses from selling out to get to him. Cam Newton's running (like Lucks in this regard) gives him an option when on short yardage plays. Lamar Jackson could play through a hypothetical injury that Manziel or Vick or Tebow could not, because there is an underlying QB there who can dropback and read progressions and throw downfield. This is NOT Robert Griffin.

I admit I liked RGIII at Baylor - he too could sit in the pocket and his downfield throws were a thing of beauty. But I went back and watched some college tape of Griffin. He's not Jackson. Griffin threw short, or he threw deep, and his intended WR was usually wiiiiiiiiiide open. If he couldn't do either of those, he ran. If he had to go through too many progressions, he ran. If he sensed any pressure, he ran. And he was often indecisive. He took big hits in the NFL. He hurt his knee the first time at Baylor on an option play where it looked like he wasn't sure whether to pitch or not and got himself all awkwardly contorted in the confusion. Colin Kaepernick never took big hits. But Colin Kaepernick also couldn't throw with touch and didn't develop even a little bit as a pocket passer until the 2016 season, and he's still an awkward thrower. Lamar Jackson is the good part of both of them. He throws with touch like RGIII. But he'll also throw 20 yards downfield on a line and runs with purpose like Kaepernick. On the whole, he's not really all that similar to either of them (particularly Kaepernick - he is certainly somewhat comparable to RGIII but far superior IMO).

And finally, when people talk about not being able to run in the NFL like you could in college - many of Lamar Jackson's runs in college were designed runs. He wasn't Mike Vick, bailing on passing plays to try and make Sportscenter. Those won't happen in the NFL like they do in college. Cam Newton runs a heck of a lot less in the NFL than he did at Auburn, but he still can when he needs to. Lamar Jackson does not depend on running to be able to throw. He just ran in college because his coach realized he was awesome at it.

So, will he fit in Denver? Yes. He'll fit anywhere. Stop that. He doesn't need a massively customized scheme around him. He just needs what Bill Belichick did for Jacoby Brissett - a downfield scheme with a few dedicated plays that take advantage of his athleticism. John Elway has shown an interest in QBs that can move - Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and now Case Keenum, a guy who needs to move around a bit to compensate for a lack of arm strength - and I don't see why he wouldn't be interested in Lamar Jackson if the draft board falls this way.

Unless there's fire to the off the field smoke. And with the view so many people reflexively have of Jackson, excuse me if I think that there may not be nearly as much there seems to be.


6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Now this starts to get interesting. Rosen is still on the board, but who wants him? Nobody in the next few picks, clearly. While I think there is certainly something wrong with Luck's shoulder and I would bet he'll never be the same guy that he used to be, I'll operate as if the Colts truly believe what they are saying.

So, the team that "swindled" the Browns and led to Mike Holmgren's last moment of relevance when they traded a first rounder for the frog-human hybrid Trent Richardson, the team who's Frank Gore-lead rushing offense could best be compared to the excitement of watching trees grow - why wouldn't they take an elite RB prospect like Barkley? I understand the thought that they would take Bradley Chubb, because you need pass rushers and they suck all over their defense. I get the thought of adding Denzel Ward or Quentin Nelson. But I think that if this team had the chance to draft a guy like Barkley they would do it. He's ridiculous. I think Fournette was better as a pure runner, but Barkley can do everything and being a pure runner isn't always your best bet in the NFL these days. Teams don't line up in the Power I formation. They need RBs to pass block and to catch short passes and run stretch plays out of shotgun and RPOs and all that jazz. Barkley is like a slightly better version of Zeke Elliott as a prospect, IMO. You can get a good RB late, but great RBs can still be game changers and as much as they depend on their surroundings, their mere presence can also lift said surroundings. The Cowboys with Zeke are a different animal than the Cowboys with Alfred Morris. I don't think Chubb is at a high enough level to go ahead of an RB like Barkley here.


7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Derwin James, S, Florida State

I like James and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But I like James more. He can do everything and he can do it at a higher level than Fitzpatrick, IMO. Fitzpatrick to me is a more elite version of Jamal Adams. James, however, I'm not even sure who to compare him to. He's like a bigger Bob Sanders. He's what Jalen Ramsey could have been if he stayed at safety. He can do absolutely everything important in the NFL. He can play centerfield. He jumps short routes. He can man up on RBs and inside WRs. He can house any ball he touches. He can come up and knock ballcarriers into 2007. He can obtain consent from women before he has sex with them. He can rush off the edge like a literal edge rusher....it's ridiculous.





What the fuck is that shit? Seriously, if someone doesn't tell me what the fuck that shit is, I have to quit writing this. I at least need to take a break.

*30 minutes pass*

This guy is absolutely ridiculous and I'm fighting an urge to move him up to the Colts pick. I also want to move a team up for Rosen but there aren't enough contenders to trade up and there are too many elite guys that have fallen as a result of mocking 5 QBs to the top 5 picks that I just can't do it. I can't see a team like Tampa Bay that starts CHRIS FUCKIN' CONTE at safety passing on Derwin James to pick up an extra 2nd rounder. The teams in the back half of the top 10 this year are in primo spots. There's always one sweet spot in each draft and to me, this year it's 6-10. Similar to 2014 but a little earlier.

If there's one flaw with James, it's his tackling ability. Not that he can't tackle, but that he misses a lot of tackles because he's moving too fast and not in good position. Sort of like Ryan Shazier but not quite as out of control. It would seem to be a big issue but it typically rears it's head when he's attacking a play near the line of scrimmage, so it's not like there's nobody behind him to clean up his mess. Maybe Conte can earn the nickname of "The Maid". Either way it's not something that I think teams will be all that concerned about, as Derwin James is an alien assuming the human form. Imagine if Jabrill Peppers were a lot bigger and also didn't suck. That's kind of what you're getting with James. To me, he's like a bigger and better and more all-around capable Eric Berry.


8. CHICAGO BEARS - Quentin Nelson, G, Notre Dame



I can't keep dropping Karate Bear. Every year I mention that I only have a few players in my top, top tier, which is determined not only by skill but just by a certain feel for each prospect. The list is going to be a bit biased toward recent players because I started paying a ton of attention only a few years ago, but it goes:

Reggie Bush

Calvin Johnson

Andrew Luck

Khalil Mack

Myles Garrett

Leonard Fournette

Quentin Nelson

Something is keeping Derwin James off of it - perhaps injury history, lack of huge production, I don't know. It kept Jalen Ramsey and Malik Hooker off even though I loved both of them as prospects. But Nelson is the best OL prospect that everyone has ever seen, and in a world where Brandon Scherff was a top 5 pick once, I can't keep dropping him just because people don't care about guards anymore.

But why not care about guards? The left tackle as most important component belief just won't die, and especially in a passing league, but I think ironically the thing that is making left tackles and (and similarly non-elite receivers and corners) IS that it's a passing league. You don't need an elite LT like you used to, because everything is tilted in the direction of the passing game and QBs are running all over the place and throwing quick slants to wide open WRs that you can't touch. Scheme seems most important these days. Two things though - 1. what do the best OLs in the league have? and 2. what wrecks modern schemes the most? 1. Great interior linemen and 2. interior pressure. Tom Brady can get the ball out when his left tackle gets beat. But Aaron Donald charging through the center of your line? That destroys most plays from the start. Now, I feel that with safeties and guards and ILBs you should sign them instead of drafting them, but that doesn't apply to elite talents and the only reason I say that is due to market values (draft expensive positions like WR and CB and Edge Rusher all things equal). Guards are valuable, even though teams don't draft them highly or pay them as much, though that may be changing a bit.

There are jacks of all trades, and then there's Quentin Nelson. Power? Elite. Technique and footwork? Elite. Athleticism? Not quite elite but very good. Elite pass blocker. ELITE ELITE run blockers. There is nothing he can't do very well and that is particularly valuable for a team that wants to run like the Bears by mauling people and has recently highly valued its guards. Nelson should go higher and probably will but I don't really have anywhere to put him.


9. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Harold Landry, Edge, Boston College

I am not nearly as high on Bradley Chubb as most people seem to be. I think he's underwhelming as a top-pick Edge guy, which is where he's consistently slotted in mocks. But I do think he's a good player, good all-around (seems to be a lot of those types in this draft), and he fits a huge need in San Francisco. However, I like Harold Landry a bit more, and he's more explosive and seems to be a better fit for a 3-4 rush OLB, even though I'm sure Chubb would be fine there too and it's really just become a stand-up DE on most downs. I don't believe either of these guys are the best OLB/edge guy in this draft, but they seem like they are going to be the first ones of the board so I'll conform a little bit.

Landry can disappear but his top plays look more "NFL" to me than Chubb's, who I think will beat up on lesser OTs. Landry is explosive as hell and can dip and collapse the pocket like top NFL rushers. I think he'll be a better version of Vic Beasley. Edge rushers are so hard to mock because (IMO) none are really all that developed technically when they reach the NFL, they get so much production that does not translate against NFL blockers, they often have outside rush/option responsibilities that don't really apply similarly in the NFL and finally, even the best ones are kept in check on a majority of plays. So, with the exception of the Myles Garretts and Khalil Macks that just consistently jump off the screen, I never know with edge guys (and it seems NFL teams don't either). So who knows. Either way, Landry is the type of athlete that CAN become one of the good ones at the next level. I'm not as convinced about Chubb. And his name is Chubb. Who wants that jersey?


10. OAKLAND RAIDERS - Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Typically, I wouldn't put a player like Fitzpatrick in this spot, but the Raiders are not the same Raiders anymore and particularly with Gruden, since this seems like the type of player that he likes to jerk off on live TV when broadcasting games. To me, Fitzpatrick is a better version of Jamal Adams as a prospect. He does everything well (GUH). He's very smart and instinctive, a decent deep safety, a decent slot corner, etc etc. He is however a sure tackler who reads plays very quickly and attacks them before they can really develop. The Raiders could really use help anywhere on defense, and there's no fullback for Gruden to draft here on his charge to 7-9, and Fitzpatrick's versatility will allow him to potentially complete a talented on paper secondary group, so I'll slot Fitzpatrick to play a few years in the Sewage Bowl before bringing his wholesomeness to Vegas with the rest of the team.


11. MIAMI DOLPHINS - I don't know.

Do they want to go forward with Tannehill and the ACL that he treated before last year with ancient tribal remedies? This team remains criminally boring, even with Jay Cutler's mopeshow headlining last year's team. Can I put Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds here? Sure, but...they don't seem splashy. I'm going to do something stupid with the team that gave us top ten selection Teddy Ginn.

MIAMI DOLPHINS - Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

This is a hilarious overdraft. Gesicki is more like Jimmy Graham than a real tight end, but he's fast, did awesome at the Combine, the Dolphins need a tight end, have watched Gronkowski for the last 8 or however many years (and Gesicki is definitely not Gronk) - I'm gonna do it. Fuck it, WE'RE DOING IT LIVE! Gesicki! Dolphins! Tannehill!

The excitement is back at Turnpike Stadium. Man does this team suck, and they probably always will. They are perfect to overdraft Gesicki. He's gonna catch so many screen passes. He can take all of his explovesiveness and use it to replace Jarvis Landry's 4 yards per catch role.

I already think this was stupid and definitely isn't going to happen but I like it so I'm keeping it here.


12. CLEVELAND BROWNS - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

I can't see this happening but I still have Ward available (he'd probably go to the Dolphins if all of this happened in real life) and Cleveland has a need at general defense. The more I watch Denzel Ward, the more I'm convinced that he IS Darrelle Revis.

Denzel Ward's feet are ridiculous (settle down, Rex Ryan). He can get up in any WR's face and lock them down on most routes. He does seem to struggle just a bit on in-breaking routes, but those are hard as hell to defend. Corners with true man-to-man lockdown ability like Ward are few and far between.

Here’s what a typical top corner looks like (Isaiah Oliver, going to be a first rounder this year most likely):



Here’s what your Revises and Denzel Wards look like:



Most people on Earth just simply cannot do that. There are great corners like Richard Sherman and Josh Norman and even Marcus Peters who can't do what Denzel Ward can do. Marlon Humphrey cannot do this. Josh Jackson cannot do this. I have faith that Gregg Wi....oh shit. Nevermind. Gregg Williams would have him 70 yards off the ball on 2nd and 2. Gregg Williams will blitz him and have him playing personal protector on punt and anything but locking down WRs. Is Gregg Williams still in Cleveland?

I don't know what Cleveland likes to do with their corners other than fill them with syringes and prostitutes, but they can figure out a way to incorporate a guy who can go step for step with any WR off the line into their defense, I'd hope.


13. WASHINGTON REDSKINS - Vita Vea, NT, Washington

Washington runs a 3-4 and there are only so many nose tackles on the planet. Particularly ones like Vea, who move like people that are 50 pounds lighter. Washington doesn't really have a nose tackle. Also, their defense sucks, particularly their run defense. NFL teams love them some big Samoan dudes. All those signs point to Vea. I know nose tackles are "2-down players", but if Vea doesn't get tired quickly (not a small feat though for big NTs), I don't see why he couldn't play on passing downs. And anyway, if you aren't stopping other teams on 1st and 10 and 2nd and 5 and setting up 3rd and longs, you aren't even going to get a chance to use your shitty pass rush. Why do teams pass over guys who are great on 2 downs and set up good situations for their defense to draft guys who suck on 3 downs? Reminds me of Jacksonville drafting a punter in the 3rd round because he was going to be a starter. Like they are trying to get more letter-winners or something. (Hat tip serious professional JJ Watt!). Vea looks ridiculous when it all works out - he can push OL back into the QB, rush through the middle of the line, even chase QBs down if they go into Josh Allen mode - but he often has plays where he looks like a complete non-entity. This seems early for him in that light but when there are teams constantly searching for a certain position (like Pittsburgh with Edge guys or KC with 3-4 DEs or Cleveland with functional NFL talent), I usually mock that position to them when it lines up like this.

I’m tired of GOATS so maybe Vea can be the BIRD (Best Interior Run Defender)? Or the HAMSTER (Huge-Ass Man Stopping Teams Every Rush)? Nelly Furtado was like a bird once. She had a long career. Think about it.


14. BALTIMORE trades with GREEN BAY – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

This is so far off the rails that I may as well be hanging out with Strawberry and Gooden. But fuck it – weird things happen every year during the draft, so you better put some weird ass shit in your mock. And this is some weird ass shit right here.

Anyway, Baltimore has to realize that Flacco is about shot. He’s been awful for years now, there’s no rebound coming, A smart franchise would cut their losses and move on when given the chance. Baltimore is a smart franchise. You can’t really cut Flacco this year but you can next year at a tolerable dead money hit, especially since they’d be saving a lot of money by not paying his 2019 salary. Maybe they can trade Flacco for a 9th rounder, I don’t know. Flacco used to be Rex Grossman in a functional QB’s body. Now he’s Brock Osweiler in Steven Tyler’s body. He’s doesn’t even throw deep anymore and is wildly inaccurate on many of the short passes that he leans on these days. It’s not coming back. Flacco hasn’t been Joe Flacco since the ACL injury and probably before that.
So I’m going to get weird here and have them jump over Arizona for Josh Rosen. Josh Rosen seems to fit their scheme, at least stylistically. Do I think he’ll be good? No. I don’t. He seems to flinch at pressure more than the other QBs in this class, he makes too many horrible decisions when not pressured even a little bit, and he misses quite often on difficult throws into tight windows. I think he’s going to be a pick-6 machine in the NFL, like a version of bad Carson Palmer. Carson Palmer between 2008 or so and 2014-ish would just routinely make a boneheaded inexcusable throw into the middle of the field or the flat into the teeth of a cover 2 zone and you just had no idea what he was thinking. That’s what I see of college Rosen, and he just wasn’t punished for it all that often. Rosen is the guy that stares down a vertical route in the middle of the field and throws the ball right to the deep safety like he meant to do it. When not doing that, he’s throwing 50 times a game and lighting teams up – just like Carson Palmer. I think he’s like Mason Rudolph if Mason Rudolph were not actually good at QB. Plus, he’s frail and had a completion percentage barely over 60%, which means he’s too slender to play QB. I think. Heard that somewhere.

But he’s a top prospect this year and there’s gotta be a reason for that so I’ll figure that my analysis is incomplete or wrong and some team that needs a QB takes him early. The Ravens need a QB. (In real life they’ll probably take a WR, and I’d bet Courtland Sutton, but that’s no fun so I’m not doing it).


15. ARIZONA CARDINALS – Connor Williams, OT, Texas

I have no idea why Mike McGlinchey is considered the consensus top tackle in this class. He anchors well enough in pass protection but he just looks sluggish, gets beat around the edges and doesn’t really seem to explode off the ball. It worked for Ronnie Stanley, but Ronnie Stanley is a hell of a lot stronger than Mike McGlinchey.

But Connor Willams? He looks a complete douche, like Taylor Lewan. And that’s what you want in your offensive linemen, isn’t it? He’s relentless and just drives defenders downfield like they offended him personally. He’s also the athletic type tackle that teams are looking for these days, like your Lewans, or your Lane Johnsons, or your Al Villanuevas. Bradley Chubb just ran by McGlinchey. The NFL is full of pass rushers that will probably run around McGlinchey. At least Connor Williams has a chance to move with them.

Arizona could go in a number of directions but the QBs are gone and they are tasked with the monumental task of protecting Sam Bradford from defenders and particularly strong winds, so they better build that wall. At least in this case we know what the wall is going to cost.

16. GREEN BAY PACKERS – Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

I want to give the Packers a WR but with all the talk about their shitty secondary last year, I think they will go there high in the draft yet again. With so many applicable prospects available in my mock, they can afford to trade down a bit and still get one of these guys. And if I had to guess which one they would take, I’d go with Oliver.

While Oliver isn’t Denzel Ward, he is capable of playing press man pretty well, and he comes in a bigger body that NFL teams are always looking for out of their corners these days. He isn’t a tremendously explosive athlete but he runs well and has good makeup speed. He jumps routes very well and has a nose for the ball. He could be a damn good corner in a lot of schemes, be it a more aggressive man scheme like Kansas City’s or a cover 3 man/zone scheme like Seattle’s and I believe like Green Bay runs. (Scheme isn’t hugely important for good corners if you also have a good coach who puts these guys in positions where they excel within his overall scheme). I think Oliver could be your Marcus Peters type of corner if he hits. If he sucks, well, in that case he’ll still fit in nicely in Green Bay’s secondary.

One thing though that would scare me is that he has a habit of recovering and breaking up deep passes late, which is something that both Justin Gilbert and William Jackson III did commonly. One of those two couldn’t work an alarm clock and the other is already an absolute animal. I think Oliver is closer to Jackson in that regard but who knows.



17. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Assuming Hurst’s heart checks out (I have a minor heart issue myself that probably would have been flagged during a medical exam as comprehensive as I image the NFL’s are), interior pass rushers are the new hotness in the NFL and Hurst is the best one in this class. He’s compared to Aaron Donald a lot but, come on, nobody is Aaron Donald. But Hurst does look explosive and he is a good interior rusher and if surrounded by the talent that San Diego has up front, he’s going to get an easier road to the backfield than he would with most other teams. If I’m San Diego, I’m adding to my strength here and drafting OL later on. The Chargers with another dominating pass rusher up front, this one coming up the middle, could be the most dominant cosmically cursed 8-8 team we’ve ever seen.


18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – Bradley Chubb, NC State

If the hype is to be believed, this is wayyyyy too late for Chubb. Like, 10+ spots too late. But every year top guys (according to the media at least) fall, and this year I think Chubb may be one of them. But if he does fall, Seattle would be a great place for him to land. They need help on both lines (I’m also tempted to give them Josh Jackson to rebuild the secondary), but if there’s a guy like Chubb available I think they take the pass rusher over an offensive lineman. Plus they probably want to continue using converted CFL nose tackles as guards and who am I to tell them not to do that.
Chubb seems to me like the kind of guy who’s going to feast against lesser tackles, but he’s definitely got ability and he’s not just a one-trick pony, and Seattle’s defense is built around guys like this coming after the QB in waves. Seattle collects pass rushing defensive linemen like Aldon Smith collects subpoenas and just like Smith, it’s time to start restocking.


19. DALLAS COWBOYS – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

It’s time to let go of Dez Bryant. I have no idea why the Dezbian is still on their roster – they are strapped for cap space and can afford to cut him. The receiving corps in Dallas is in shambles and is in desperate need of an upgrade. Now, they could also use a Roquan Smith type, and arguably Smith is elite enough to overcome the fact that non-edge LBs are much less expensive than WRs, but Sutton may be tempting enough to be the pick here over a defensive player. The Cowboys have a sneaky top-heavy roster that is showing cracks, and one of the things that held it together in previous years was a top-flite WR. They don’t have that anymore and Sutton could be that guy. Sutton seems a bit slow out of his breaks, but he is a tremendous deep threat and can make tough catches downfield. He’s a deceptively fast strider who doesn’t look like he’s moving all that fast until he’s 2 steps ahead of the DB chasing him (kind of like Josh Gordon in that regard). Can you throw him out there like OBJ or Antonio Brown or Keenan Allen, have him running the full route tree and revolve your passing game around him? I don’t think so but there’s really not any of those guys in this draft. But can he be Dez Bryant? Fuck yeah he can be Dez Bryant. Especially the washed up current version of Dez Bryant, who couldn’t get separation if he hired a divorce attorney.


20. LA RAMS trade with DETROIT – Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Va. Tech

Every mock I see seems to put Edmunds above Roquan Smith, and I can buy that. They also have him in the top 10, which I do not buy as readily. Edmunds shows flashes of spectacular ILB play but there’s just too much inconsistency for me to slot him that high. Alec Ogletree has apparently been playing ILB like a drunk moose and was just the latest in a string of inexplicable contracts given out by the Rams to bad players that made people think that they might actually be good players (I was fooled on Ogletree – he was godawful last year), and while Roquan Smith appears to understand the rules of football, he’s too similar to Ogletree in (theoretical) style to go to LA. Smith is a sideline to sideline missile, similar to Ray Lewis but in a smaller body. But the Rams have penetrating DTs – they don’t have the kind of defensive line that occupies blockers for LBs to make tackles. (Can you imagine Ndamukang fuckin’ Suh just holding up blockers? Ha! He’d rather hit QBs on running plays in the CFL). Edmunds is much more along the lines of a stack and shed LB. When he’s on, he reads plays, throws blockers out of the way, and is always a sure tackler. He’s a great athlete. He has a chance to be really, really good. But too often he’s just way out of position or makes the wrong read. He also has pass coverage ability. With teams just running straight at the Rams last year and bowling Ogletree and Mark Barron 10 yards backwards, they need an LB in this mold. Edmunds is a great tackler even when he’s playing poorly, and if he hits he’s going to be a more athletic, non-crazy version of Vontaze Burfict that actually has marginal respect for human life. That’s why he’s mocked top 10. I just don’t see enough of it to do that myself.

EDIT: Well, the Rams traded their pick to Brandin Cooks while I was working on this. So inconsiderate! (Maybe they think a QB will fall to 23?). Back to the drawing board. I want to move the Lions out of this pick. I’m going to say that the Browns trade with them. This probably isn’t likely because who are they really jumping to get Davenport but I’ve already written most of this and I don’t want to do the last third all over again.

20. CLEVELAND BROWNS trade with DETROIT – Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA

Marcus Davenport is an interesting prospect. He’s like 7 feet tall, very good athlete, plays at random state, has only been an edge rusher for like 30 minutes…you don’t see these too often. He’s like Tanoh Kpassagnoh in a lot of ways. Like an even rawer Anthony Barr.

But when you watch him, you expect to hate him as a prospect. But if you’re like me, you can’t. His development was incredible. He definitely struggled early on but as time went on, you can see why people talk about this guy as a potential top 15 pick. I know he’s playing against future Winn-Dixie store managers but he’s a monster.

The Browns probably want to add some pass rushers to help Myles Garrett, who got like 6 sacks as a rookie in 10 games for a team that was never ever winning even for like a few minutes and so Browns fans inexplicably think he’s a bust. And they don’t need a plug-and-play finished product here. This team is going to win a fuckin’ game this year baby yeah!



21. CINCINNATI BENGALS – Isaiah Wynn, OG/OT, Georgia

Wynn is a unique tackle, standing “only” 6’2” and weighing 310 lbs. He’s a fireplug of a lineman that looks like a guard and I think that’s what he’ll end up being in the NFL, at least at first. But Cincinnati doesn’t care – there are bad O-lines in the NFL, but the Bengals line actively sabotaged them for much of the 2017 season. They can put Wynn wherever he fits best. Wynn is very stout (and he should be at that height) and stonewalls defenders who try to bull rush him. He’ll stop guys in their tracks. He’s aggressive. He’s got good feet. He might be fine at tackle. Either way, he’s a really good lineman and the Bengals need a shit-ton of players at the “good lineman” position.

I want to mock a corner here because it’s the Bengals and all they do is draft first round corners and it’s hilarious, but I can’t have them passing up on Wynn. Plus, if he’s a guard, he’ll be cheaper on that 2nd contract! You think that doesn’t matter to Mike Brown? Mike Brown is the kind of guy who takes a 5:35 am flight with a stop in Atlanta just to save $34. Mike Brown 100% flies to the owner’s meetings on Spirit and you know he’s in the $9 fare club.



22. DETROIT LIONS – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

I’m tired of Detroit not having a running back. It’s never a huge need for them, but I think that’s because they’ve just convinced themselves that good running backs don’t exist because in actuality, it’s consistently a huge need for this team. Wtf? Any time they draft a halfway decent RB he’s always like 180 lbs, immediately suffers every injury and he’s done in a few seasons.

So fuck it, and fuck their other “more pressing” needs. The Lions need a damn top running back. Derrius Guice is a top running back. Everyone is comparing him to Adrian Peterson. Previously the only time the Lions have been compared to Adrian Peterson is when other teams savagely beat them as if they were a small child. I’m not giving them a 25 year old tight end (Hayden Hurst), and they should have learned their lesson last them they drafted a TE in the first round. I’m not giving them a guard or a defensive lineman. Let’s get Detriot running again! Is there some Ford slogan similar to that? I think there was something like that.


23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (trade with LA Rams) – Roquan Smith, ILB, Alabama

Well….the Patriots also need an ILB, and an edge guy, and some OL…this is also a spot where they like to add OL…I’m actually going to slot Roquan Smith to them here. They certainly don’t have any issues drafting an Alabama inside linebacker, and the seek-and-destroy type of ILB fits their system much better than a team like the Rams. They traded for Danny Shelton to eat up blockers, not to get sacks. I want to mock Edmunds here to wrap this all neatly in a bow but I just can’t help but think that Smith would be a great fit here.


24. CAROLINA PANTHERS – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

The Panthers absolutely refuse to add WR talent, so why would I start now? This team is driven by defense and by Cam Newton doing absolutely everything offensively and still getting ripped for it in the media. Ever since Josh Norman left, they’ve been struggling to patch up their secondary, and Josh Jackson is a very similar corner to Norman stylistically. He’s not going to get up and press people like Denzel Ward or even like Isaiah Oliver. He is going to be at home in a heavy zone scheme reading QBs and jumping routes. This is the guy who if he hits becomes Richard Sherman.
I saw him getting mocked lower and lower and didn’t see it at first but after having done this exercise, I get it. He’s not as versatile as the other top corners – he has to be played a certain way to really succeed. But he’s not a bad athlete by any stretch. People downplayed Desmond King last year and Josh Jackson is a more athletic version of King in a better body. King did very well as a rookie and I think Jackson will as well. He finds the ball very well. And in a league where even Case Keenum is throwing for like 400 yards a game, it may be a better plan to go after picks to offset the completions rather than try to shut down receivers that you aren’t allowed to breathe on or stare at directly without being flagged.


25. TENNESSEE TITANS – Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Va. Tech

See above. The Titans may not have the biggest need at ILB but it definitely is A need for them and they just lost Avery Williamson. I think they would take Taven Bryan here in real life but I don’t have time for this shit. Fuckin’ New England. Damn it.



26. ATLANTA FALCONS – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

Atlanta can go in a bunch of directions with this pick. They could use one more weapon on offense to really lift their passing offense. They could use a rush DE. They also paid Dontari Poe after whiffing on some interior DL picks in years prior and still haven’t really solidified it. Looking at the available prospects, I think they would take the DL here and worry about the other spots later.
I’ve never really liked big, sluggish Alabama monster defensive tackles, and that will continue here. I don’t know what it is, but while I see Da’Ron Payne in a higher light than I do A’Shawn Robinson, I’m just not a huge fan and I like Bryan a lot more. He’s like a bigger Joey Bosa, just powers his way into the backfield at will. He’ll take one arm, bend an OL back and just push him into the QB’s lap. He can also go around the edge a bit, kind of like Stephon Tuitt. He’s probably going to go higher than this in the actual draft, because teams always need more 3-4 DE than are available, and Bryan looks like he could be a monster 3-4 DE. I won’t say he’s a JJ Watt type because nobody is a JJ Watt type but impact at that position really sets your defense up to wreck shop. For Atlanta, they would probably want more of a Maurice Hurst type but talent is talent and Bryan has a lot of it.



27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State

STOP COMPARING THIS GUY TO LUKE KUECHLY, MEDIA.

For one, Luke Keuchy is the absolute gold standard of college ILB tape. Vander Esch is a phenomenal athlete, more like Roquan Smith but with a better ability to sort through trash and get by blockers. But, he seems to get fooled a lot. He is raw and only started for a year at Boise State, but here is how he will often play a misdirection play:



Here’s Luke Kuechly in a similar situation, immediately diagnosing the end-around like he was the one who called it:



Kuechly’s college tape is full of that. He was absolutely ridiculous. Great athlete, just like LVE, but different players. Both had questions about athleticism until they blew up their respective Combines, because we live in a world of narratives where the majority of people don’t even bother to learn about the shit they’re talking about, but that’s about where the similarities stop. Nobody is really all that similar to Kuechly, because nobody I’ve seen in college recently has combined that understanding of the position and ability to immediately recognize the playcall with his level of athleticism. Yet I read “oh, scouts tell me he’s like Kuechly” and it makes me think – maybe so many teams blow draft picks because there are a lot of scouts who are just plain morons? I don’t know.

Anyway, Vander Esch may end up being the best ILB in this class if he develops a little further and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he’s the first ILB taken. He’s just as good an athlete as the others and seems to be better at slipping through trash and finding the ball.


28. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – Ognonnia Okoronkwo, OLB/EDGE, Oklahoma

Ok. This guy is projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick or something. I don’t get it. Every year there are guys like this that are projected so low and go early because teams aren’t using CBS Sportsline or WalterFootball or whatever to rank players, and I often make the mistake of trusting those rankings too much. Kevin Byard is an example that jumps out every time I think about later prospects who I don’t think should be late round prospects. I thought he looked like a hell of a player. So did the Titans, and they didn’t care if Todd’s Draft Bonanza dotcom ranked him as a 6th rounder.
This year that guy for me is Okoronkwo. He’s an explosive athlete. He’s strong as hell. He consistently gets pressure when he rushes. He can play more of a traditional linebacker role. I’d bet he can excel inside as well. He comes up and destroys RBs in the backfield. He’s shorter in the James Harrison mold. He just seems like a Steeler.

And yes, I know he isn’t an ILB or a safety. But ILB and safety can be replaced in the FA market, at least temporarily. 3-4 OLB? You can’t go out and get a Morgan Burnett or a Tre Boston type at that position for a few million bucks. And don’t look now but Edge rusher is about to become a huge need for the Steelers. I treat them like borderline QBs – unless you are absolutely rock solid set at that position, it’s always at least a bit of a need. LBs drive this system. I don’t care how many picks you blew on LBs prior – just like Detroit didn’t care about how many picks they blew on WRs when Calvin Johnson was there or Carolina didn’t care about blowing a pick on a QB when Cam Newton was there. Calvin Johnson is not Mike Williams, so how is that relevant? Same here. Even if Bud Dupree breaks out in year 4, he’s probably gone next year. And that’s a best case – this could be a huge pressing need right now.

Okoronkwo is one of my favorite prospects in this draft and this is more wishful thinking than anything but if I think a top edge guy is there at 28, I take him and buy my time with Jon Bostic and Burnett. Hell, there will be more rounds in the draft. Draft some slapdick ILB in the 2nd. Get the guy who’s going to beat the shit out of QBs in the first.


29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Jaguars offense is still as boring as ever, and they’ve shown that they like boring WRs who put up 100 catch seasons at football factories. Calvin Ridley is like a version of Amari Cooper with a nagging hamstring injury.

I would give them a lineman if I there were a mauler type available or a QB if the same opportunity presented itself, but the way I have things going, I think they take Calvin Ridley and immediately crown him king of the midgets. I’d probably prefer to put a DJ Chark or DJ Moore here, but for some reason I feel that the Jags would go with Ridley in this case. Their defense is kick-ass as fuck but if one of the ILBs drop or if a beast DT (maybe Da’Ron Payne) is there, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went in that direction. Hell, they could even add to the secondary. Nothing wrong with stacking strength on strength and in a year or two they are going to start losing guys for cap reasons and it’s probably smart to keep restocking the engine that drives your team.
Either way, they are going to rush for like 3,000 yards next season and Blake Bortles is going to get a sixth developmental season.


30. MINNESOTA VIKINGS – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

Another freakshow athletic tackle (he’s also like 8 feet tall) that I can’t see being taken behind McGlinchey. The Vikings have either the best or 2nd best roster in the NFL but the one place they could really use some fresh talent is on the OL. They patched it up last year but the year before it sank their entire season, so I doubt they rest on their laurels if a top OL prospect is sitting there at 30.
Kirk Cousins is going need some time to throw 4 yard slants on 2nd and 15 or loft one too far inside for Adam Theilen to catch over two guys’ heads. He’s going to take a 13-3 roster to 10-6 and somehow yet again avoid all blame and scrutiny.



31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – Sam Hubbard, OLB, Ohio State

This is a big assumption that they keep this pick, but I don’t really have an opportunity for them to move up and get a QB in my draft. I want to put a WR here but I think edge rusher is a bigger need. It’s all we heard about last year, after Belichick geniusly traded Chandler Jones to Arizona where he probably struggled mightily in between all of his league-leading sacks. I also really want to put Arden Key here, but I just don’t think they’ll go after a weed guy. Or whatever issues he has.

So I’ll give them Hubbard, another guy who lit up agility drills at the Combine and probably IMO the best combination of edge-setting run defender and pass rusher in this class. Apparently he struggled a bit last year but in his 2016 tape he jumps off the screen at times defending stretch/outside runs. He doesn’t always show much in the way of outside rushing ability but he’s got great hands that allow him to have success on inside rush moves and he’s quick enough to threaten around the edge after setting the tackle up. He’s also good on stunts and other designed inside rushes. I think he would fit very well into NE’s defense.

He’ll then get traded to Chicago for a 3rd round pick in 2020.


32. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – DJ Chark, WR, LSU

In real life, one of the off-ball linebackers is probably available here and Philly takes him. Malik Jefferson doesn’t count because he’s not very good. I could also see them going corner.
But with this being a bad WR draft relative to recent years, I think there will be a bunch of the higher end guys available at 32 and Philly has shown a proclivity towards big-play WRs in free agency. I think they’ll take another shot at one in the draft if the opportunity presents itself. Chark is tall and fast and should be able to run downfield while Carson Wentz runs around and throws 60 yard darts downfield across his body while falling sideways. Kind of like Josh Allen, if he understood how offenses work.

Usually there are trades back into the first, but I don’t have any this year because I don’t see anybody available that jumps out to trade for. I’d bet that if NE doesn’t move up, they move back out of 31, but I don’t have all day to write these, man.

Some popular names that I left out of the first round:

Malik Jefferson (Texas ILB): As mentioned above, I just don’t think he’s very good. Great timed athlete but doesn’t show it on the field. Looks sluggish and does not work through blockers well. I think he’ll be mediocre at best.

Donte Jackson (LSU CB): I do not get it with this guy. Always see him mocked into the first but he just doesn’t cover well. He’s like 170 lbs as well. That would be fine if he could do anything more than run fast in a line, but I don’t think he can.

Christian Kirk (TAMU WR): Gimmick piece WR that makes Percy Harvin looked refined. He might be successful in the NFL but I don’t see a team spending a first rounder on a guy who has to move around pre-snap and run fake screens every other play to get him open. He rarely just lines up and runs an actual route.

Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame OT): Covered him a few times but I have no idea how he’s the general consensus top OT. Seems like a Riley Reiff situation where he’s going to “fall”.

Jaire Alexander (Louisville CB): No reason I dropped him, just haven’t watched all that much and didn’t have a spot where he jumped out as the probably pick. He’ll probably go in the first in reality.

Da’Ron Payne (Alabama DT): I just don’t like Alabama DL, I guess. Monster DL but they all look great at Alabama. Hell, even Jonathan Allen fell to 18 last draft. Payne though with his Combine performance is almost certain to go in the first round, and the more I think about it I doubt he’d get past Jacksonville if he fell that far.

Billy Price (OSU Guard): I don’t have time to watch all these guards and centers and stuff, man. Come on now.

Hayden Hurst (SCAR TE): It was funnier to mock Gesicki to the Dolphins even though Hurst is the consensus top TE. But he’s also going to be a 25 year old rookie. Who drafts a 25 year old tight end in the first round?

Rashaan Evans (Alabama ILB): Actually he would probably be in the mix for Philadelphia or Pittsburgh if it fell this way but I don’t love him and can see him falling into the 2nd round. This is already a lot of ILBs to be drafted this high and Evans has medical concerns and also performance concerns.

Carlton Davis (Auburn CB): I literally have no idea who this guy is and don’t feel like finding out right now.

Great stuff, as always, GPJ.

I might just be projecting here, but I think this is John Elway's worst nightmare - having to choose between a mouthy liberal QB (Rosen) and a black QB (Jackson). (And mind you, I'm the guy who has defended Elway more than any Swamper ever.)

Pretty comprehensive. I don't think it's unlikely Detroit drafts a RB in the first round. I wouldn't bet on it either, but it's certainly possible. If nothing else, they'll take one in the early rounds probably since they don't have anyone under contract beyond 2018 at this point.

If Mo Hurst is there, I hope the Lions draft him just because I saw so much of him playing for Michigan and I think he has Aaron Donald-type potential. I watch a lot of college football and I didn't see anyone wreck shit from the DT position as much as Hurst this year.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:34 am Great stuff, as always, GPJ.

I might just be projecting here, but I think this is John Elway's worst nightmare - having to choose between a mouthy liberal QB (Rosen) and a black QB (Jackson). (And mind you, I'm the guy who has defended Elway more than any Swamper ever.)

You'd think that but Elway has shown a ton of interest before in scrambly black QBs. It's like he wanted to be Randall Cunningham or something in the 80s.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:36 am Pretty comprehensive. I don't think it's unlikely Detroit drafts a RB in the first round. I wouldn't bet on it either, but it's certainly possible. If nothing else, they'll take one in the early rounds probably since they don't have anyone under contract beyond 2018 at this point.

If Mo Hurst is there, I hope the Lions draft him just because I saw so much of him playing for Michigan and I think he has Aaron Donald-type potential. I watch a lot of college football and I didn't see anyone wreck shit from the DT position as much as Hurst this year.

Yeah, he's probably going to go higher than I have him. I don't think he's really all thaaaat close to Donald's level but who is? He's definitely the closest to it in this draft.

If he's not there, I really have no idea who to slot to them other than the RB that I did for fun. Maybe they trade back for some team looking to get a QB.

Wow!

Mel Kiper is a slacker by comparison.

The "stopping the interior rush" is the most salient reason I've seen anyone use to support the Bears drafting Quentin Nelson (and also would be a good reason for not moving Kyle Long to left tackle, although I think they were just too dumb to follow through with that). I'm in.

My only nitpick with the Bears analysis is I don't think they will want to run the ball as much with Matt Nagy as their coach (certainly less than under John Fox). Of course, that is pretty close to the only thing Jordan Howard can do, so, they'll still run a good amount.

Possibly true and Nelson may not be a perfect fit for that scheme but he's so good that I don't think it really matters. And a good OC will adjust to his personnel.

Who do you see them taking if not Nelson? Edge rusher? Corner? WR? I guess they could go in a lot of ways. No huge holes but no huge strengths, really.

12,178 words.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:36 am Pretty comprehensive. I don't think it's unlikely Detroit drafts a RB in the first round. I wouldn't bet on it either, but it's certainly possible. If nothing else, they'll take one in the early rounds probably since they don't have anyone under contract beyond 2018 at this point.

If Mo Hurst is there, I hope the Lions draft him just because I saw so much of him playing for Michigan and I think he has Aaron Donald-type potential. I watch a lot of college football and I didn't see anyone wreck shit from the DT position as much as Hurst this year.

The guys at Pro Football say pretty much the same thing. They also mentioned that he came in to the combine listed above expectations weight-wise, and that he's now right in line with all the guys that are slightly under-sized (from a traditional standpoint) but are transforming the concept of the ideal interior lineman.

I would love Wynn to Cincinnati. Your mock rules. As opposed to those from Kiper and McShay which are pretty much apparently designed to troll the few remaining Bengals fans...

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:19 pm 12,178 words.

And each one of them great!

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:44 pm I would love Wynn to Cincinnati. Your mock rules. As opposed to those from Kiper and McShay which are pretty much apparently designed to troll the few remaining Bengals fans...

Though I did love John Ross last year....


Still have hope for him if they decide to actually, like, use him.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:05 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:44 pm I would love Wynn to Cincinnati. Your mock rules. As opposed to those from Kiper and McShay which are pretty much apparently designed to troll the few remaining Bengals fans...

Though I did love John Ross last year....


Still have hope for him if they decide to actually, like, use him.

Aren't they making him a cornerback?

Since we don't have a "like" button where I can voice my approval with relative passivity I'll use this post to say that was a fun read. Thanks.

Another fucking mock with a Nelly Furtado reference. Yawn.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:09 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:05 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:44 pm I would love Wynn to Cincinnati. Your mock rules. As opposed to those from Kiper and McShay which are pretty much apparently designed to troll the few remaining Bengals fans...

Though I did love John Ross last year....


Still have hope for him if they decide to actually, like, use him.

Aren't they making him a cornerback?

AB - Um, no.

SL - your mouth to god's ears. Marvin is incompetent.

I guess I misread this as them thinking about a permanent position change.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/12/11/ ... -news-2017

Same as last year, I don't care about the NFL but read every word of this. A tradition unlike any other except the Masters.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:40 am I guess I misread this as them thinking about a permanent position change.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/12/11/ ... -news-2017

Holy shizzzzzzzz....you're gonna take your slight of frame rookie WR with shoulder injury concerns and put him at corner????!??!?! That's insane that they even considered it.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:10 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:40 am I guess I misread this as them thinking about a permanent position change.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/12/11/ ... -news-2017

Holy shizzzzzzzz....you're gonna take your slight of frame rookie WR with shoulder injury concerns and put him at corner????!??!?! That's insane that they even considered it.

Welcome to my hell.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:00 pm Possibly true and Nelson may not be a perfect fit for that scheme but he's so good that I don't think it really matters. And a good OC will adjust to his personnel.

Who do you see them taking if not Nelson? Edge rusher? Corner? WR? I guess they could go in a lot of ways. No huge holes but no huge strengths, really.

I would be fine with Nelson there, too. It would give them a really strong interior three (Nelson-Whitehair-Long) bookended by truly mediocre tackles (Charles Leno, Bobbie Massie).

The Bears' weaknesses line up well with their draft spot in the first round. Edge rusher/OLB, maybe a CB (Fitzpatrick's versatility would be a key, allowing him to work as a slot nickel and maybe some safety), but they extended Fuller (will be rostered for at least two, if not three, of his four year deal) and Amukamara (will be rostered for two of his three years). Maybe Vita Vea to work as a nose tackle, especially if they feel they can trade down a few spots and take him (maybe one of the QBs slides a little and someone wants to jump up), but that seems like a long shot because Nelson and the other defensive positions seem like much more of a pressing need.

I don't see them going for a WR after signing Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, as well as Trey Burton as their move TE.

Forgot all about Allen Robinson.

I've never seen him play, but I now hate Josh Allen.

Whoa, Dez Bryant "unexpectedly" released!

You'd have to be blind to have not seen that coming but do your thing football media.

Draft thread? Draft thread.

The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

He should go first overall and the rest of the night should be people telling how great that pic is. Start at pick 1-2 on Friday.

So he went to the trouble of getting the Zach Morris phone but he skimped on the red Solo cups?

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

I can't tell...are you serious?

I don't want this fucknugget.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:09 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

I can't tell...are you serious?

I don't want this fucknugget.

Dead serious. Most accurate passer of the ones being considered, and one of the most accurate in the last half dozen or so years. Or more. I would be delighted not to have him in Cleveland throwing passes to receivers' hands instead of at their feet.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:35 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:09 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

I can't tell...are you serious?

I don't want this fucknugget.

Dead serious. Most accurate passer of the ones being considered, and one of the most accurate in the last half dozen or so years. Or more. I would be delighted not to have him in Cleveland throwing passes to receivers' hands instead of at their feet.

Well I hope you are right. I am, after all, a person who thought Manziel would be fine.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:38 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:35 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:09 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

I can't tell...are you serious?

I don't want this fucknugget.

Dead serious. Most accurate passer of the ones being considered, and one of the most accurate in the last half dozen or so years. Or more. I would be delighted not to have him in Cleveland throwing passes to receivers' hands instead of at their feet.

Well I hope you are right. I am, after all, a person who thought Manziel would be fine.

From SL's preview in this here thread:

Oh, and stop comparing him to Manziel. He doesn't move around for the same reasons Manziel did. Both are shorter. Both have, I guess, SWAG. But one was definitely a drug addict and an alcoholic. Maybe Mayfield is too, but until he starts blowing lines after the draft, I'm going to assume he's not in Vegas under an assumed identity when he should be studying his playbook.

Oh yeah, I wasn't meaning to compare him. Just saying that my ability to predict a QB's effectiveness is not pristine.

My guess is the Browns take Darnold. I wouldn't take Josh Allen in the first round if you paid me. I'm sure he's a nice guy but he hasn't shown squat in actual game action.

Bill Connelly of SB Nation had a small scale statistical projection of the QBs in the draft and listed their closest comparisons. Mayfield was Russell Wilson, Mason Rudolph was Jared Goff, Logan Woodside (of Toledo) was Foles, and it got pretty ugly quick. Darnold got Colt McCoy, Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen both got Brandon Weeden, and Josh Allen got DeShone Kizer.

He then ran Allen's 2016 season (the "good" year) and the closest comp was Tebow.

I think the huge takeaway from this graphic is how many of these picks SUCKED. The only pick you could give an A to would be Marshall Faulk probably.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

So do I!

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:35 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:09 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am The Browns are crazy if they don't draft him. I hope they go with Allen.

I can't tell...are you serious?

I don't want this fucknugget.

Dead serious. Most accurate passer of the ones being considered, and one of the most accurate in the last half dozen or so years. Or more. I would be delighted not to have him in Cleveland throwing passes to receivers' hands instead of at their feet.

He's definitely accurate but completion percentage doesn't necessarily equal accuracy.

Compare the windows Baker Mayfield is often throwing into:



with those of Mason Rudolph:



It's much easier to be accurate throwing into a bigger window. Though I will say, this was the rationale behind my favoring Jameis Winston over Mariota and Mariota has been very accurate in the NFL in Mularkey's insane offense. OU's receivers were wide da fuq open on the reg. Oklahoma State's are all highly regarded prospects yet failed to separate like typical top Big XII WRs usually do.