The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Okay . . . let's try this again.

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The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by A_B » Mon May 14, 2018 9:31 am

States can now allow sports betting if they want.
certainly expansive during tactical areas and specific zones

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by rass » Mon May 14, 2018 9:35 am

No reason for brian to stay in Vegas now.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Mon May 14, 2018 10:21 am

Seen a lot of people suggesting this somehow means doom for Las Vegas and not sure I agree. There are probably a very, very small subset of gamblers who visit Las Vegas only for sports betting and I suppose those folks might not visit any more if you can bet on games in New Jersey or New York or wherever, but at worst it's probably going to just make it more mainstream and increase the handle for casinos in Las Vegas.

Remember that everyone predicted Las Vegas was done in the 1970s when New Jersey legalized casino gambling. The population of Las Vegas then was 350,000 people. There's now enough hotel rooms in Las Vegas to hold 350,000 people.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by The Sybian » Mon May 14, 2018 11:36 am

brian wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 10:21 am
Seen a lot of people suggesting this somehow means doom for Las Vegas and not sure I agree. There are probably a very, very small subset of gamblers who visit Las Vegas only for sports betting and I suppose those folks might not visit any more if you can bet on games in New Jersey or New York or wherever, but at worst it's probably going to just make it more mainstream and increase the handle for casinos in Las Vegas.

Remember that everyone predicted Las Vegas was done in the 1970s when New Jersey legalized casino gambling. The population of Las Vegas then was 350,000 people. There's now enough hotel rooms in Las Vegas to hold 350,000 people.
But in fairness, nobody predicted Trump was dumb enough to go bankrupt running casinos.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by Nonlinear FC » Mon May 14, 2018 11:47 am

I don't see anything breaking Vegas as a destination. There's so much to do there now and like you said, online gambling and sports betting isn't what drives people that go to Vegas for the experience.

What I thought might break the town is when they tried that bullshit of making it a family destination. :D
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Mon May 14, 2018 11:52 am

The other thing everyone is forgetting is that the NCAA had been fucking Nevada over for the last 20 years by not allowing any postseason games or tournaments (other than conference tournaments) and presumably that prohibition will soon be over since the NCAA will be forced to play the Final Four in Wyoming or Utah every year if they're going to prevent states with legal sports betting from hosting.

So that means in the next 10 years, you'll almost definitely see a Final Four in Las Vegas at the new Raiders Stadium. I'd bet you'll probably see a college football title game at Raiders Stadium before 2030 as well. T-Mobile Arena will be a popular site for regional finals at some point possibly. There's been rumors that the women's basketball tournament will play its entire Sweet 16 in Las Vegas since there are several 13,000+ arenas on the Strip (with one more to come from MSG in 2021).

The net effect of those on the Las Vegas economy far outweights even a slight dip in sports betting revenue and I'm not convinced sports betting revenue in Las Vegas will dip at all. If anything I expect it to increase.

ETA: All those things I've mentioned have already been bid on by the LVCVA in the last few years despite the prohibition. They've been laying groundwork with the NCAA and once the dam bursts you're going to see Las Vegas win a lot of these events going forward. Ironically, the first NCAA events to be hosted will probably end up being things that won't even be bet on like NCAA national finals for things like golf, etc. I'd also bet my mortgage that Las Vegas gets a Frozen Four before it gets the basketball tournament.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by Nonlinear FC » Mon May 14, 2018 12:58 pm

Hmm... Is ASU close enough to the "local" host of a Frozen Four?

Trying to remember who got that nod when Tampa had it. Come to think of it, not sure who got it when it was in DC.

Huh. Says Navy.. So I guess you can just have a club team?

Oh, shit... Tampa's was co-hosted by Wisconsin??

Frozen Four in Vegas in 6 years.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Mon May 14, 2018 1:00 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 12:58 pm
Hmm... Is ASU close enough to the "local" host of a Frozen Four?

Trying to remember who got that nod when Tampa had it. Come to think of it, not sure who got it when it was in DC.

Huh. Says Navy.. So I guess you can just have a club team?

Oh, shit... Tampa's was co-hosted by Wisconsin??

Frozen Four in Vegas in 6 years.
Arizona State would likely be the host. They already play what is intended to be an annual tournament at T-Mobile every year.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by Nonlinear FC » Mon May 14, 2018 1:11 pm

Yeah, makes perfect sense, but if Tampa can get by with Wisconsin... I was going to say all bets are off, but stopped myself because that's cheesy.

Shit...
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Thu May 31, 2018 2:27 pm

The First State is the second to have full sports betting.

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by rass » Thu May 31, 2018 2:34 pm

Yeah, they've had parlay cards for years, under some grandfathered exception or another, so casinos already have sports books built in.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by rass » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:54 am

NJ goes live today.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by mister d » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am

If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am

mister d wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am
If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by tennbengal » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:52 am

Gonna make it up to Delaware Park next week for a poker tourney and will get my first bets down there. Looking forward to it.

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by P.D.X. » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 am

I've followed MLS lines casually and gotta say there's some $ to be made there before the handicappers get it dialed in.

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:05 am

P.D.X. wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 am
I've followed MLS lines casually and gotta say there's some $ to be made there before the handicappers get it dialed in.
Most professional sports bettors are guys who hyper-focus on one particular sport or even subgroups of one particular sport. Unless big money starts coming in on MLS games (unlikely) that edge will always be there because they don't have the manpower to devote to it beyond using the computers to set lines. They'll adjust a little based on injuries, etc, but lines on stuff like MLS, NHL, etc. can be beaten. Pro football and major college football, not so much.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by L-Jam3 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:06 am

brian wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am
mister d wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am
If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.
I'm guessing sooner in NJ. There are apps where you can play slots/table games at AC establishments so long as you are physically in Jersey.

ETA. I'm certainly looking forward to teaching my kids about wagering, although it'll be later than my dad taught me. He showed me how baccarat (chemin de fer style) works when I was in first grade or so.
Last edited by L-Jam3 on Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by brian » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:07 am

L-Jam3 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:06 am
brian wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:31 am
mister d wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:24 am
If there was one walking distance from me, I'd definitely consider going for a world cup bet or two.
By the end of the year (if not sooner) they'll have betting apps available for your smartphone/tablet, etc.
I'm guessing sooner in NJ. There are apps where you can play slots/table games at AC establishments so long as you are physically in Jersey.
Yeah, it's the same technology and the same operators in NJ (William Hill, etc.) as Nevada and we've had that technology for years. So it's just a question of licensing and ramping up. You're right though. They're probably shooting for the start of football season.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by A_B » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:44 am

From ESPN:

"The point spread was invented in the early 1940s by math teacher-turned-bookmaker Charles McNeil. It is the great equalizer of the NFL.

In fact, over the last 15 regular seasons, NFL favorites have gone 1,859-1,860 against the spread, with 111 pushes, according to odds database BetLabsSports.com.

Also during that time frame, 1,890 games have gone over the total and 1,886 have stayed under the total, with 64 games landing squarely on the over/under."

Um. That's amazing.
certainly expansive during tactical areas and specific zones

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by Pruitt » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:55 am

Not to make a bad joke - but what are the odds against the people making these spreads being so damned good at it?

That is incredible.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by Ryan » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:59 am

That explains the old saying about how casinos and houses in Arkansas are roughly the same size

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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by GoodKarma » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:06 am

For our professional gambling Swampers...do you use any sort of newsletter/website/tout service, etc. to make picks? If so, do you have any recommendations?

Before the most recent banking ban I bet football on occasion and always just made my own picks. I stopped for while but am thinking about getting back in game.
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Re: The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

Post by degenerasian » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:31 am

A_B wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:44 am
From ESPN:

"The point spread was invented in the early 1940s by math teacher-turned-bookmaker Charles McNeil. It is the great equalizer of the NFL.

In fact, over the last 15 regular seasons, NFL favorites have gone 1,859-1,860 against the spread, with 111 pushes, according to odds database BetLabsSports.com.

Also during that time frame, 1,890 games have gone over the total and 1,886 have stayed under the total, with 64 games landing squarely on the over/under."

Um. That's amazing.
I wonder what the breakdown on the history of home dogs is. I know guys who swear on picking only home dogs will be a guaranteed profit.
And break that down further with the post-99 Browns being home dogs.
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