2018 NBA Offseason Thread

[Joe K]

It was probably fair to say that ~5 teams per year had a shot before Durant signed with the Warriors but it’s even worse now. Last year only the Warriors and Rockets had any championship equity, and it’ll be 3 teams max this year, depending on if LeBron can assemble a super team. So yeah, there’s a big incentive for everyone else to bottom out. Problem is that for every successful rebuild like the Celtics and Sixers, there are multiple teams like the Suns, Magic, Kings, etc. that just get stuck in the mud.

[RSmith]

Also, for the current generation of basketball players, I doubt the Celtics have any real mystique. I’m a few months older than LeBron and the Celtics were pretty much a non-entity when I grew up watching the sport. The run they had from 2008-2012 was solid, but only resulted in the one title. Compare that to 5 titles each for the Lakers and Spurs and 3 each for the Heat and Warriors since 1999.

I am absolutely loathe to paraphrase Curt Schilling, but "Mystique" and "Aura" are dancers in a nightclub. I doubt many players are silly enough to care about that; I think that for most, the considerations are money, and a chance to win titles in the near future. I'd suggest that Boston is MUCH better poised for the latter than the Lakers...

[RSmith]

Day after Celtics trade Leonard, sometime in 2021: “The day after the Celtics were eliminated I ran into Kawhi in a bathroom at Logan after he’d taken a huge shit and he was smiling a lot and he walked out without washing his hands and my 5 year old grandson softly asked ‘why didn’t my hero wash his hands’ and Kawhi heard him and came back in and said ‘fuck you, little man, Kawhi only washes his hands when Kawhi wants to and also Larry Bird was gay’ and then he put his headphones on (rap) and left” by Bob Ryan.

Entirely plausible. :)

I'd be worry about acquiring him on some level, honestly, after what he's apparently pulled in SA. But he's a Hell of a player.

[RSmith]

No way Lebron goes to Boston. They have an established coach and an established GM and it's difficult to see them letting Lebron bully them into either a style of play or contracts for people he wants to play with.

While I agree he’s not going there (the opt-out means it’s Cavs, Lakers or Sixers), LeBron can bully whoever he wants. The guy’s been to 8 straight Finals! He’s beaten the Celtics in the playoffs five times since 2011! If he actually wanted to go there, Ainge and Stevens would jump at the chance.

Agreed. No competent front office is turning down LeBron if he's there for the taking for them.

[Joe K]

Durant officially staying with the Warriors. No surprise at all there, despite Stephen A’s ridiculous made up story about LeBron texting him.

And all signs are pointing to LeBron to the Lakers but Paul George staying in OKC. Unless the Lakers are able to get Kawhi, their current title odds (+350) are stupidly optimistic. Does anyone really think LeBron playing with a bunch of young guys there is anywhere close to as good as the 2017 Cavs team that got soundly beat by the Warriors in 5 games? As great as LeBron is, if the Lakers don’t swing at least one other big move, they’re not getting out of the second round next year.

[A_B]

Lebron stays in Cleveland. Book it.

[Joe K]

Lebron stays in Cleveland. Book it.

I still think it’s a little crazy to go to the Lakers for someone as concerned about his legacy as LeBron. Being in the same division as the Warriors it’s very conceivable that he ends up going something like 3-15 against them over the next two seasons (counting playoffs). Hell, if they don’t get PG or Kawhi, I’m not sure they’re even a top-4 team in the West next year. But soooo many people are now expressing a high degree of confidence that not only is he going there but that the decision was made a long time ago.

[Johnnie]

[RSmith]

Durant officially staying with the Warriors. No surprise at all there, despite Stephen A’s ridiculous made up story about LeBron texting him.

And all signs are pointing to LeBron to the Lakers but Paul George staying in OKC. Unless the Lakers are able to get Kawhi, their current title odds (+350) are stupidly optimistic. Does anyone really think LeBron playing with a bunch of young guys there is anywhere close to as good as the 2017 Cavs team that got soundly beat by the Warriors in 5 games? As great as LeBron is, if the Lakers don’t swing at least one other big move, they’re not getting out of the second round next year.

Honestly, is the supporting cast he'd have with the Lakers better than (or even as good as) what he had in Cleveland this year? I seriously doubt he wants another year of that dreck.

Unless there's a solid guarantee of someone else joining him, I just don't see how it makes any sense, unless LeBron just decides he wants to live in LA, and doesn't give a flying f*** about winning. To put it mildly, he does not strike me as that sort of competitor...

[RSmith]

Lebron stays in Cleveland. Book it.

That really seems most likely to me.

[Joe K]

Lebron stays in Cleveland. Book it.

That really seems most likely to me.

Nah, he’s going to the Lakers. It sounds like Boogie Cousins is their backup plan when Paul George re-ups with OKC, which could be announced within the next hour. I like Cousins but I hate the idea of paying him big money if you’re chasing the Warriors. A burly, turnover-prone Center is a terrible fit for what you need against them. It’s all about perimeter defense and players who can create their own shot without turning it over. That’s why the LBJ/PG13/Kawhi trio was always their best option.

[Johnnie]

[Joe K]

Since the Lakers’ gamble of just waiting for George’s free agency just backfired, if I’m the Spurs, I wouldn’t give them Kawhi this offseason without an absolute haul. I’d definitely demand all three of Kuzma, Hart and Ingram — maybe Lonzo too, just for the hell of it. We’ve seen before, with the Wiggins-Love trade, that LeBron prefers established players to even highly touted prospects, so I’m sure his camp is pushing them to do whatever is needed to make the Kawhi trade happen.

[DSafetyGuy]

Since the Lakers’ gamble of just waiting for George’s free agency just backfired, if I’m the Spurs, I wouldn’t give them Kawhi this offseason without an absolute haul. I’d definitely demand all three of Kuzma, Hart and Ingram — maybe Lonzo too, just for the hell of it. We’ve seen before, with the Wiggins-Love trade, that LeBron prefers established players to even highly touted prospects, so I’m sure his camp is pushing them to do whatever is needed to make the Kawhi trade happen.

I could see the Spurs push for multiple first-round picks over Ball starting in 2020 (Lakers have no future firsts currently scheduled to go out, but traded away their first this year, so they can't trade their 2019, unless pick protection affects the inability to trade away first-rounders in consecutive years). Even with the expectation of the picks coming later in the first round (with a Western Conference schedule and the plan on playing well enough to just make the playoffs, I figure they would fall closer to 20th-22nd than 28th-30th), I think the Spurs are very confident in both their scouting and player development.

Plus, avoiding the associated headache with Ball seems like a very Spurs decision.

[Joe K]

Yeah, I doubt they want Lonzo. But it would be funny if they end up with the Lakers’ entire set of young guys. While I’m a big Lonzo skeptic (can’t get past the poor shooting in this era), if there were ever a team that could get the most of him it’s the Spurs, with their track record of player development. They’re famous for significantly improving players’ shooting ability — Kawhi being one of the best examples of that. And Lonzo strikes me as someone who would be better off being far away from LA and all his hometown nonsense.

[RSmith]

I’d definitely demand all three of Kuzma, Hart and Ingram — maybe Lonzo too, just for the hell of it.

Would giving away Lonzo for a bag of balls not be a net positive for the Lakers, though? Honestly.

[Joe K]

I’d definitely demand all three of Kuzma, Hart and Ingram — maybe Lonzo too, just for the hell of it.

Would giving away Lonzo for a bag of balls not be a net positive for the Lakers, though? Honestly.

Perhaps, although some advanced stats guys think Lonzo will be a plus player due to his passing and defense. (I think his shooting is too much of a liability, personally.) There’s also some embarrassment of admitting that you blew a #2 overall pick. Although they did that exact same thing when they gave D’Angelo Russell to the Nets for very little.

[Johnnie]

[Joe K]

That meeting is probably just a courtesy, as LeBron’s agent also reps Ben Simmons. Way too many people (including the Vegas oddsmakers) are saying LeBron to the Lakers is a done deal. Even Windhorst, who has covered LeBron since he was like 15 years old, says the Lakers would basically have to badly screw something ip to no not get him. But the Sixers could definitely trade for Kawhi and keep a hell of a lot more talent post-trade than the Lakers can. Whiffing on George was a really big hit to the Lakers’ chances of actually contending for a title next year and LeBron isn’t getting any younger.

[DSafetyGuy]

You think LeBron is willing to play with a mediocre surrounding cast and miss the playoffs, even if it's just for one year? Playing in the East with the Cavs, he can have a mediocre group around him and at least get to the postseason where he can be a one-man wrecking crew for a couple rounds. He may not be able to advance to the conference finals next season past Boston or Philly, but I could see him dragging the Cavs to a six-seed, upsetting a three, and pushing the two-seed to six or seven games (and maybe do more).

I know there has been a lot of chatter about this free agency being about his family, but at some point, I think LeBron's sense of pride will keep him from going someplace without a chance to win something more than 40 regular season games. Maybe I am underestimating how ready to go some of the Lakers' young talent is, but I don't think there is a second star on that roster for next season in the way Kyrie helped propel the Cavs when LeBron returned.

With the larger amount of cap space being held up for next summer, LeBron could re-sign in Cleveland for one year and have a lot more options in building a coalition with player(s) next year and pick a common destination.

[Joe K]

I agree with all of that, and think the Lakers would be worse pick than the Sixers or a 1-year Cavs deal for all those reasons. But there are enough people now saying that he’s all but officially decided on the Lakers, that I can’t ignore it anymore. The Vegas odds have taken a huge shift in that direction, lots of semi-reputable sources are saying it’s a done deal, and even Windhorst (who’s more knowledgeable of LeBron than anyone) says everything is pointing towards the Lakers.

[brian]

What are the chances a deal with LA gets held up by the Lakers not wanting to give LeBron a short-term deal with player options? Because this is a big deal for them too. If they sign him for one year and he bolts for a new super team them they’re screwed until the mid 20s

[sancarlos]

Lonzo strikes me as someone who would be better off being far away from LA and all his hometown nonsense.

Speaking of Ball family nonsense, anyone else feel a sense of schadenfreude that LiAngelo Ball didn't get a sniff in the NBA draft and now didn't even get a courtesy, undrafted-free-agent, summer-league deal?

[brian]

Kinda feel sorry for the kid. Not his fault his dad is an asshole.

[sancarlos]

Kinda feel sorry for the kid. Not his fault his dad is an asshole.

I don’t know if the apple is that far from the tree. In stories I’ve read, he seems to hold his abilities in extremely high regard. Plus he was suspended by UCLA for shoplifting in China before he even played a college game.

[brian]

Lonzo has never seemed like anything than a decent kid. Guess I’m just giving the other two benefit of the doubt.

[Joe K]

LiAngelo was never going to be an NBA prospect, regardless of what his father did or whether he stayed at UCLA. At no point was he on NBA scouts’ radar and I’m sure the only reason UCLA even recruited him was to ensure they got Lonzo. If anything, the incessant promotion by LaVar got LiAngelo a pre-draft workout he never would’ve gotten otherwise.

[mister d]

I don’t know if the apple is that far from the tree. In stories I’ve read, he seems to hold his abilities in extremely high regard.

Like half of D1 basketball players think they're prospects if not for something out of their control.

[Joe K]

Told you guys:

[Johnnie]

Follow up tweet:

[Joe K]

So, 4 years with Miami, 4 with Cleveland and then 4 with the Lakers. I suspect the rumors that he had decided on this months ago are true. But I’m not sure they can even get out of the first round next year.

[sancarlos]

Told you guys:

Nice. So, if a guy working 40 hours a week made this amount, it would come out to $18,780.49 per hour

[brian]

Fuck Cleveland. Enjoy another 100 years of sucking on the tailpipe of failure.

[Johnnie]

[Rex]

Thank you Lebron for giving us a 1 through 16 playoff format!

[Johnny Carwash]

Fuck that guy. This is the real official Lakers Guy:

[Joe K]

The whole Kawhi-Spurs saga looks way shadier now. Why do I think they agreed to team up before last season even started. But on some level I don’t blame them. Once Durant joined the Warriors they probably both knew that teaming up was their most realistic chance to have a shot at a title.

[Johnnie]

I posted that gif in response to yours. Did you delete your post?

[Johnny Carwash]

I posted that gif in response to yours. Did you delete your post?

Yeah. I was momentarily gloating but had second thoughts, but you convinced me again.

[Joe K]

Guess we know who LeBron’s second superstar will be!