The Swamp

Season tips off on Tuesday, so why not get this started. My thoughts/predictions:

1. Warriors will be completely apathetic for most of the regular season and even postseason but will win the title again.

2. Lakers and Celtics are getting all the hype but the Rockets are the only team I can conceive of beating the Warriors in a playoff series. The Celtics don’t have a single player who would start for the Warriors. And there’s no way the Lakers are as good as the 2017 Cavs team that lost in 5.

3. Durant is gone after this season — probably to an Eastern Conference team. With both Chris Haynes and Marcus Johnson (two of the most plugged in reporters with KD and GSW) predicting that, there’s likely a lot of legs to it. David Fizdale should be doing everything possible to make the Knicks appear competitive. Gotta wonder about the Durant/Brooks relationship, too.

4. I really want to pick the Lakers to implode and miss the playoffs because their roster is a joke but it’s awfully hard to do that when LeBron teams almost always end up reaching their max potential. Other than the 2011 Heat and (arguably) the 2010 Cavs, I can’t think of any LeBron team that hasn’t maximized its end results based on talent and health.

5. Giannis wins MVP as voters will have Harden/James fatigue. Ayton will compile stats on an awful team and win RoY, but Doncic will be the best rookie. Budenholzer will win CoY as the Bucks will take off now that they have a competent coach.

After last night’s games, there are now 2 players in NBA history with 1100+ minutes played and a PER > 27.8. Michael Jordan ... and Boban.



Boban “hanging” from the rim with his feet touching the ground will never get old.

Holy fuckballs, make sure you catch a Grizzlies game, so you can appreciate the BIG IDEA of "what if we put out the most unathletic team possible in today's NBA" put into action. It's jaw-droppingly bad, this idea. And they are doing it.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:12 am Holy fuckballs, make sure you catch a Grizzlies game, so you can appreciate the BIG IDEA of "what if we put out the most unathletic team possible in today's NBA" put into action. It's jaw-droppingly bad, this idea. And they are doing it.

Amin Elhassan, who's usually one of the better NBA analysts, was talking them up as surprise playoff team this offseason. But yeah, that's a pretty gross roster. Conley and Gasol are likely both out of their primes and all their other vets are guys who should be an 8th or 9th man at best. I think Jaren Jackson has big potential, but he's very young and raw.

The smarts and the fans who want to have hope are trying to talk themselves into "they will defend when no one else is" as the talking point which misses that:

1. They can't actually defend; and

2. Even if they could defend, you still have to score; and

3. The maths of 3 is better than 2 haven't reached Memphis so even if they do score, it usually won't be enough, because, math and Memphis' big brain idea of loading up on non-three point threats (yet again).

Other than that, it's all good. Marc will check out mentally by mid-December if this doesn't get fixed soon. JJJ is worth checking in on, otherwise, it's just gonna be really ugly, I think.

ETA: Shelvin Mack got 30 minutes (one more than Conley) and Garrett Temple took the most shots on the team last night. It was gruesome and fascinating, all in one.

In other stuff, I know he's been around FORVER, but Aaron Gordon just turned 23, and, man, do I like him for a breakout. Like, superstar level breakout.

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:58 amThe Celtics don’t have a single player who would start for the Warriors.

Shit, this is amazingly true when Cousins is right. I still think their bench gives them a major potential edge that other teams can't replicate, but you need the Warriors to be hurt and/or gassed by June for it to matter. Somehow this never happens even though the West is such a gauntlet.

But, do the Warriors have a single guy who could come off the bench for the Celtics?!?!?!?!?!?


Anyway, I thought the season started tonight.

1. This could go in the "stuff that makes you feel old" thread, but I saw the name Jaren Jackson and had a mental whiplash from "That guy's still playing?" to realizing it's a Junior.

2. I like bengal's casual dropping of the British "maths."

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:52 am But, do the Warriors have a single guy who could come off the bench for the Celtics?

They should just keep Iguodala and Livingston in a cryogenic chamber until the second round of the playoffs.

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:51 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:58 amThe Celtics don’t have a single player who would start for the Warriors.

Shit, this is amazingly true when Cousins is right. I still think their bench gives them a major potential edge that other teams can't replicate, but you need the Warriors to be hurt and/or gassed by June for it to matter. Somehow this never happens even though the West is such a gauntlet.

Trying to convince myself I'd start Tatum over Green, so trying to calm down my expectations for Tatum is not going well.

This could really change things. At first blush, I like it. Now need some of the better analysts to weigh in to break it down more completely.

G-league to offer $125k contracts to elite high school prospects as an alternative to the NCAA one and done.

I predict this will be a good idea implemented terribly.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:38 am I predict this will be a good idea implemented terribly.

That's probably right.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:32 am This could really change things. At first blush, I like it. Now need some of the better analysts to weigh in to break it down more completely.

G-league to offer $125k contracts to elite high school prospects as an alternative to the NCAA one and done.

Sounds like a pay decrease from the money colleges can funnel through sneaker companies

I think the intriguing thing that could put this over the top is the players' ability to profit off their name/brand, not only during their 18-year old year but from the moment they have any value to sponsors. It's currently hard to tell what that value is, except that Adidas is starting to give us a good idea. But if you know you're going the G-league route, you could start making $$$ at 8 or 12 or whatever.

Otherwise, I would agree that it's likely to be implemented badly. $125K sounds nice, but after taxes and living expenses, I'm not sure it is material to all but the most cash-strapped kids. Under the NCAA model, you get free housing and meals and gear and healthcare, not to mention whatever under the table goodies are out there. And what does "pro training" mean? Places like Duke and Kentucky now have very sophisticated strength and conditioning and nutrition programs, along with well-paid and highly sought after coaches and some of the best hospitals in the world right next door. It's a pretty big investment, and I have read that G-league teams are all over the map when it comes to the quality of training they offer. If I fuck up my knee at age 18, I'd rather do that at a major university than as an unattached G-league player. Some of these things would go away if teams could simply draft/hold rights to 18 year olds. Why not do that?

But lots would take the $125k. Not that it's a good deal just that enough if not most are prone to poor short term decision making.

And also $125k pre-taxes is still a lot of money to most people.

If I'm right, no 17 year old is going to have a decision to make, because the kids who can make money from AAU teams and sponsors from the time they are still in middle school will have to decide at that point whether to go the pro route.

My response to the NBA's age limit is why not 17, or 16, or 7? If there is value in youth basketball players, and obviously there is, then why don't NBA teams make the investment to acquire their rights and develop them right away?

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:14 pm And also $125k pre-taxes is still a lot of money to most people.

Plus it's only for one year and maybe most importantly for some of these kids -- no classes. I think there's very little discussion about how emasculating and condescending it is to pretend some of these elite athletes are actually cut out for college classes, especially at an elite university like Duke or Northwestern, etc.

That isn't to say that they can't handle the work or that some wouldn't even have been admitted without being a basketball player, but ultimately most don't want to. So to maintain the veneer of "amateurism" the schools, the coaches and the players are essentially engaging in a conspiracy to pretend these athletes are also college students. I can see a lot of kids that have no interest in college being excited by the prospect of not having to go through that bullshit.

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:21 pm If I'm right, no 17 year old is going to have a decision to make, because the kids who can make money from AAU teams and sponsors from the time they are still in middle school will have to decide at that point whether to go the pro route.

My response to the NBA's age limit is why not 17, or 16, or 7? If there is value in youth basketball players, and obviously there is, then why don't NBA teams make the investment to acquire their rights and develop them right away?

I'm guessing any of the guys who would even consider this route would be getting a contract from whatever company supports their AAU team to make even more money in that year on top of the 125k. So the real number for that first year would likely be enough to justify giving it a shot and, like brian said, not having to deal with any classes. There should be some healthcare guarantees and insurance included in any contract, too.

So many questions with this and so many kids unprepared to answer. Yeah no such thing as pretax money and that's nothing compared to dealing with being a professional athelete. The professionals to help you deal with this will find a way to the piece Uncle Sam couldn't get his hands on. Family. Baby mama. "Friends." Id be a wonder if most of those guys see a dime. Not to mention 95% of those considering this option wouldn't have the game to rely on a second nba contract.

I

LeBron can’t say he wasn’t warned about the dynamic talent he’d face on a nightly basis out West:

Joe K wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:35 am LeBron can’t say he wasn’t warned about the dynamic talent he’d face on a nightly basis out West:

I bet the kind of losing he is going to endure this year is really going to wear on him.

It’s funny to me to read the mythologies that have been crafted about Jeannie Buss and Magic Johnson “recruiting” LeBron, and the lure of the Lakers’ “impressive” young talent, when it’s painfully obvious that LeBron made his decision a long time ago that he would go LA for off-court reasons. It’s no surprise that he announced a whole bunch of new projects in the entertainment industry this offseason. I doubt anything the Lakers, players or management said or did had anything to do with his decision one way or another, he just doesn’t want to admit that he had his mind made up well before he actually left Cleveland.

LeBron's "brand" (and I fucking hate to use that word, but it mostly applies here) is unimpeachable even if the Lakers lose 60 games for the next couple of years, which they probably won't but even if they did not like he's not going to get his movie roles and TV shows and all of the other stuff he wants to do.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:13 am ETA: Shelvin Mack got 30 minutes (one more than Conley) and Garrett Temple took the most shots on the team last night. It was gruesome and fascinating, all in one.

How you like Garrett Temple now? 30 points on a True Shooting Percentage >100%.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:45 pm LeBron's "brand" (and I fucking hate to use that word, but it mostly applies here) is unimpeachable even if the Lakers lose 60 games for the next couple of years, which they probably won't but even if they did not like he's not going to get his movie roles and TV shows and all of the other stuff he wants to do.

Lakers in three.

Joe K wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:50 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:13 am ETA: Shelvin Mack got 30 minutes (one more than Conley) and Garrett Temple took the most shots on the team last night. It was gruesome and fascinating, all in one.

How you like Garrett Temple now? 30 points on a True Shooting Percentage >100%.

Clearly I underestimated the 2018/19 league MVP.

I watched the second half of the Raptors-Celtics game, and the Raptors are going to be really tough in the East this year. Kawhi at his best is a force. DeRozan is a good player who will do well in San Antonio, but there's just no comparison between those guys. Danny Green played really well for them last night, too.

I wonder how LeBron feels about the Lakers' offseason strategy of signing "tough" players now that one of those guys got in a fistfight with his best friend. I know it's just two games in, but watching the Raptors play on Friday night and the Lakers play last night further convinces me that the Lakers should have done whatever was necessary to make a Kawhi trade happen. I don't think any of their young guys are can't miss prospects, such that you'd pass on acquiring someone as good as Kawhi. The Lakers should know better than any team that you win titles with high-end talent, not with depth pieces, as some of their Phil Jackson title teams were very top-heavy. Kawhi is so much better than any of their young guys, and would allow the team to be competitive even if LeBron coasts through the regular season, as he has in most recent years. The West is so tough that if LeBron gives the same regular season effort level he's given over the last five years in Miami and Cleveland, the Lakers will struggle to make the playoffs.

Richard Hamilton Chauncey billups and the Pistons say you can win with depth over top talent.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:12 am Richard Hamilton Chauncey billups and the Pistons say you can win with depth over top talent.

Come on, those Pistons guys were a hell of a lot better than Lonzo, Ingram and Kuzma. Both guards were All-Star caliber, Rasheed was a very talented player, and Ben Wallace is one of the best defenders of all-time. One thing that’s lost in the way that series is remembered is that beyond Kobe and Shaq, Detroit was far more talented. At that stage of their respective careers, Billups and the Wallaces were much better than washed up Gary Payton and Karl Malone. Prince was better than Devean George, too. So the Pistons has the better PG, SF and PF, with a damn good SG and exceptional defensive C to boot.

Yeah no comparison. Just that more really good players can beat less great ones.

The NBA needs more fights.

“Ehhh ...” - a white rockets forward.

Touche.

I'll keep saying that Pistons team was a total fluke joke in the middle of a garbage league as they unplug my respirator. The Wallaces fucking blew.

Ryan wrote: ↑Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:41 am I'll keep saying that Pistons team was a total fluke joke in the middle of a garbage league as they unplug my respirator. The Wallaces fucking blew.

Ball don't lie