2018 Midterm Elections

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:46 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:43 pm (And I'm with Pentz where either the stock market or housing market or something inevitably crashes 12-18 months from now and the Dems have no idea how to not absorb ownership of it.)

I'm pretty cynical and pessimistic but some of y'all put even me to shame. If the stock market crashes and the Dems can't figure out how to pin it on a guy who has claimed credit for every time it has gone up 100 points on Twitter, then they are beyond redeemable.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 pm My boss is a pretty decent friend of Claire McCaskill (he's a mover and shaker in MO Dem politics) and I know he's probably pretty inconsolable right now. They were holding out a lot of hope she had a good chance. He genuinely likes her as a person and a politician so that makes it harder.

By all accounts she ran the better campaign. But Missouri was Trump +19 in 2016 and the days of Democrats winning any statewide races appear to be over for the foreseeable future.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:48 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:46 pmI'm pretty cynical and pessimistic but some of y'all put even me to shame. If the stock market crashes and the Dems can't figure out how to pin it on a guy who has claimed credit for every time it has gone up 100 points on Twitter, then they are beyond redeemable.

They're on the right side of almost all messaging and still get washed nearly every time.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:48 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:43 pm (And I'm with Pentz where either the stock market or housing market or something inevitably crashes 12-18 months from now and the Dems have no idea how to not absorb ownership of it.)

The general public won’t know that the Dems control the House. If the market crashes they’ll blame Trump.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:50 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 pm My boss is a pretty decent friend of Claire McCaskill (he's a mover and shaker in MO Dem politics) and I know he's probably pretty inconsolable right now. They were holding out a lot of hope she had a good chance. He genuinely likes her as a person and a politician so that makes it harder.
By all accounts she ran the better campaign. But Missouri was Trump +19 in 2016 and the days of Democrats winning any statewide races appear to be over for the foreseeable future.

Did any red state Dems who voted against Kavanaugh hood their seats? I guess If you consider Ohio or Penn red states?

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:56 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:50 pm
Joe K wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 pm My boss is a pretty decent friend of Claire McCaskill (he's a mover and shaker in MO Dem politics) and I know he's probably pretty inconsolable right now. They were holding out a lot of hope she had a good chance. He genuinely likes her as a person and a politician so that makes it harder.
By all accounts she ran the better campaign. But Missouri was Trump +19 in 2016 and the days of Democrats winning any statewide races appear to be over for the foreseeable future.
Did any red state Dems who voted against Kavanaugh hood their seats? I guess If you consider Ohio or Penn red states?

It’s hard to attribute causality to that. McCaskill was headed for defeat in 2012 before Todd Akin’s absurdly offensive “legitimate rape” comments. And Ohio is an important caveat because Sherrod Brown is very progressive for a swing state Senator and he won easily while Donnelly (who bragged about voting with Trump and bashed the Left in his ads) got soundly beaten just one state over.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:56 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:50 pm
Joe K wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 pm My boss is a pretty decent friend of Claire McCaskill (he's a mover and shaker in MO Dem politics) and I know he's probably pretty inconsolable right now. They were holding out a lot of hope she had a good chance. He genuinely likes her as a person and a politician so that makes it harder.
By all accounts she ran the better campaign. But Missouri was Trump +19 in 2016 and the days of Democrats winning any statewide races appear to be over for the foreseeable future.
Did any red state Dems who voted against Kavanaugh hood their seats? I guess If you consider Ohio or Penn red states?

At the end of the day I don't think that moved the needle enough in ND, MO and IN. Those were all probably gonna go the way they did no matter once. To a certain extent none of them were states the Dems should have held in the first place if not for the extent of Obama's coattails in 2012.

Here's a HUGE reason to be happy. And if you think this shit doesn't matter it absolutely does.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm

Not sure, but I also don't buy that cost McCaskill almost 1/4 of a million votes. I think a lot of the red state Dems were dead regardless.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm

The fact that Clark County was such a shitshow tonight has to be nothing but good news for Jacky Rosen and Steve Sisolak. If Sisolak wins the governorship. Nevada MIGHT have a Dem supermajority in the legislature which means it would basically be a dictatorship, which is a little weird because I really do appreciate some checks on power. But Nevada could theoretically do just about anything (Constitutionally legal) it wants in January.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm

But, David Frum, what if they could trade that right to demand the tax returns in exchange for a rematch debate against Steve Bannon?

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm Not sure, but I also don't buy that cost McCaskill almost 1/4 of a million votes. I think a lot of the red state Dems were dead regardless.

Yeah, we agree. IN, ND and MO were basically all lost causes from the jump. That's why I never bought that the Dems winning the Senate was ever a thing.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:00 am

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm But, David Frum, what if they could trade that right to demand the tax returns in exchange for a rematch debate against Steve Bannon?

He's a fucking moron, but even stopped clocks are right twice a day.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:07 am

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm Not sure, but I also don't buy that cost McCaskill almost 1/4 of a million votes. I think a lot of the red state Dems were dead regardless.

I don’t either. I think the Dems just had too many seats at risk in hard places. 2020 and 2022 will be more favorable for the Dems in the Senate.

It just sucks that Trump gets to pack the courts for two more years.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:12 am

Nevada Democrats fucking BROUGHT IT today and in the last two weeks. Given that Cortez-Masto won in a tough environment in 2016 and it was the first time Nevada voted for a losing Democratic candidate for president in 2016 if Jacky Rosen wins and Steve Sisolak wins the governorship (which hasn't been a Democrat in 20 years) then might be time to just start considering Nevada a blue state. I don't say that lightly. This kind of mid-term destruction (if in fact it happens) doesn't bode well for Nevada ever going for a Republican candidate for President ever again. The demographics here (between the shift of population to Clark County and the growth of the Latino population) just don't support it.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:14 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:07 am
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm Not sure, but I also don't buy that cost McCaskill almost 1/4 of a million votes. I think a lot of the red state Dems were dead regardless.
I don’t either. I think the Dems just had too many seats at risk in hard places. 2020 and 2022 will be more favorable for the Dems in the Senate.

It just sucks that Trump gets to pack the courts for two more years.

Chuck Schumer needs to be replaced as Senate minority leader. There’s only so much you can do as a minority party but he’s put up no resistance whatsoever to judicial appointments. I’ve lived most of my life in New York State and I’m fairly convinced Schumer would be a Republican if he were from Long Island or somewhere upstate where that’s the path to power, instead of from Brooklyn.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:23 am

This is a pretty good take really. Trump has not been completely repudiated but that was never really gonna happen. Again, the Dems weren't taking the Senate back tonight. And controlling the House is not a fucking consolation prize. There's real teeth to House investigations that are going to fucking haunt Trump's nightmares for the next two years. There is going to be a constant litany of headlines from the 82 fucking billion things that the House Dems can investigate. In fact, if you want to know the real bad news the House is going to have to be very disciplined in what it goes after and doesn't just start throwing darts.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:27 am

I know it's annoying people here, but the fact that Nevada doesn't release a single number until every voter has voted is kinda cool in my opinion.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:38 am

Harley Rouda has a very, very slight lead over Russian operative Dana Rohrabacher right now with about 28% reporting.

Edit:

Big win for Lujan Grisham in the the New Mexico governor race tonight.

Evers appears to have a lead over Walker in Wisconsin.

Sinema is running slightly behind McSally in Arizona but there are lots of ballots to still count.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:44 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:38 am Harley Rouda has a very, very slight lead over Russian operative Dana Rohrabacher right now with about 28% reporting.

That would be something. Since Nunes and Hunter appear to be holding their seats.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:49 am

I really don't think this shit is that hard for the House Democrats. You say you're willing to work with Trump and the Republicans on an infrastructure deal and comprehensive, fair immigration reform while putting forth extremely popular (both with progressive AND moderates) things like a much higher minimum wage and Medicare For All and if the Republicans don't bite on any of it you beat them the fuck up with it for two years straight.

You can be bi-partisan and hammer the other guy for not negotiating in good faith, but you can't abandon principles. I really don't see that happening and I think it's the Republicans that now have a much harder needle to thread in the next two years.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:55 am

BREAKING: If Kyrsten Sinema is elected, she will become the hottest Senator in American history.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:57 am

All voters in in Washoe County now, according to reports. Nevada results gonna come out here in a huge dump here shortly.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:04 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:55 am BREAKING: If Kyrsten Sinema is elected, she will become the hottest Senator in American history.

Right now it looks like she’ll lose. By less than the number of votes for the Green Party.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:04 am

If the media actually chooses this narrative (which they're not because they actually fucking secretly love Trump), then tonight seems a lot different to a lot of people.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:07 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:55 am BREAKING: If Kyrsten Sinema is elected, she will become the hottest Senator in American history.

And she's bisexual.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:13 am

Frankly, McSally is not bad at all either so I'm just gonna leave that out there.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:33 am

Looks like Dems gonna flip one seat today. Washoe is Reno and it’s rural environs and it’s usually 50/50 these days.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:39 am

Sisolak up 52-44 in Washoe. That’s even more shocking than the Heller numbers. (Sisolak is a Southern NV Dem.) Nevada might have its first Dem governor in 20 years.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:12 am

Jon Ralston is calling NV for Rosen already.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:21 am

Heller getting beat helps poke holes in argument that Trump helped where he campaigned also.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:04 am

My state assembly district (AD-4) is going to a recount with the Dem up by about 70 votes.

The main headline should be if she holds on Nevada is the first state in US history with a majority of women holding state house seats. Plus two women US Senators and two (out of four) US House seats held by women.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:32 am

Fuck right off to hell Scott walker.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:34 am

Evers beat Walker in Wisconsin! And because it was by more than 1% there is no recount!

Also, strong showing by Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico. She is in the NM 2nd which is a 10+ Republican district and came within 1% of beating Trumpkin Yvette Herrell.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:37 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:00 am
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm But, David Frum, what if they could trade that right to demand the tax returns in exchange for a rematch debate against Steve Bannon?
He's a fucking moron, but even stopped clocks are right twice a day.

Nailed it.

Frum is basically Toronto Jewish royalty - his mother was pretty much a secular saint up here. His toadying to W should never be forgotten.

But he's making a good living trying to be the 21st Century Buckley.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:34 am Evers beat Walker in Wisconsin! And because it was by more than 1% there is no recount!

This is a start in having my faith restored in human decency.

And this makes me very, very happy indeed.

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:56 pm
Here's a HUGE reason to be happy. And if you think this shit doesn't matter it absolutely does.

Square Rob · Post by **Square Rob** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:40 am

Ok, I feel better this morning. Disappointed with Florida, but not really surprised. Though I guess the sen race will be contested and a recount. Holding out hope that Abrams still has a shot for a runoff in GA. That would give a focused Dem effort on turnout and making sure people know their rights more support and might push her over the top. Kobach losing is fantastic. No surprises in MO or ND. Beto was CLOSE, and that’s encouraging as Texas is just getting bluer. Almost knocked off that nazi in Iowa, and it looks like the Russian spy in CA is out.

Looking back from 18 months ago, this is as good as anyone predicted. Knew the senate was nearly impossible given the map. To pick up the governorships that we did is fantastic (Scott Walker lol). Now it’s time to work.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:42 am

It would be nice for Tester to make the comeback.

Square Rob · Post by **Square Rob** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:43 am

Where did the National popular vote land? Last I saw was dem +9.2, which is amazing. The deck is stacked so far to the right at this moment. It’s why winning the governorships and state legislatures back is so critical.

My grand hope is that trump is an anchor on the gop down ticket for at least three cycles, which will do a lot to help fix that.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:49 am

Biden: And now for my next trick!

Polling person: Joe, that's just the voting booth.

Biden: I will pull a rabbit out of my hat!

Polling Person: You aren't wearing a hat.

Biden: Tah-Dah!

Polling Person: Sigh.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:14 am

It's gonna take a while to be optimistic for those of us living in Florida.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:20 am

House is rather massive for legislation moreso than investigations. Got to hold your side together but the Republicans has their shot at revamping the us code for two years and mostly failed. Pretty much impossible now. Can we find a decent nominee now and what will the fed do to inflation. Everything will turn to 2020 in about 6 months.