The Swamp

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:29 am**

It would seem that speculation about potential 2020 Republican presidential candidates who are currently undeclared would be a good way to assess how things are unfolding.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:47 am**

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:46 amI’m guessing the GOP line on the transcript will be that everything is fine because Trump did not explicitly condition future aid on an investigation of the Bidens.

No, he explicitly conditioned future aid on an investigation of Crowdstrike. ("I would like you to do us a favor though" immediately after Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready to buy more Javelins.)

*Then* Trump asked that Ukraine "look into" Biden and his son.

This will definitely be the thing that does him in.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:51 am**

Wager that, at a minimum, he finishes out his term?

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:55 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:51 am Wager that, at a minimum, he finishes out his term?

Oh hell yeah he'll finish his term. I was totally being facetious (and stealing your line).

It's still quite possible that an impeachment process helps him by making the Dems look equally extreme to the morons in the middle. But this is a lot stronger case than what we had before, so I hope not.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:02 am**

Ukraine should be 1a, and the fact that he's had dozens (if not more) of non-presidential trips funneled to Trump properties should be 1b*. Maaaaybe throw in the Cohen specific hush money as 2.

My point is the American public is overwhelmed and skeptical. This is a clear smoking gun. Most Americans don't know the scope of his funneling money to his properties around the globe - clear emoluments clause violation.

And everyone understands hush money.

Keep it simple, keep it contained. Nail his ass.

I've said a million times he's going to see out his term, so I don't need to burn words other these on that topic. That's not the point of the exercise, as I said yesterday.

* - It is absolutely borderline if not straight up emoluments violation to have spent such an inordinate amount of time at his properties, and the insane amount of money spent doing so. We were talking about Obama and golfing, that's a fucking scandal, right? This fucking piece of shit...

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:10 am**

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:47 am
Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:46 amI’m guessing the GOP line on the transcript will be that everything is fine because Trump did not explicitly condition future aid on an investigation of the Bidens.
No, he explicitly conditioned future aid on an investigation of Crowdstrike. ("I would like you to do us a favor though" immediately after Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready to buy more Javelins.)

*Then* Trump asked that Ukraine "look into" Biden and his son.

This will definitely be the thing that does him in.

See the Tweet below. The White House is making the “no quid pro quo” argument that I predicted they would.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:15 am**

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:10 amSee the Tweet below. The White House is making the “no quid pro quo” argument that I predicted they would.

Oh, of course they are. But the funny thing is, I expected that the call summary would at least support the argument, i.e., everything was really implicit. But when Trump specifically asks for a favor right after Zelenskyy mentions missiles? That's awesome.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:18 am**

So they sent that to Democrats, then asked to recall it??

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:23 am**

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:30 am**

Giff wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:18 am So they sent that to Democrats, then asked to recall it??

This is one of the funniest moments of the admin's tenure.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:34 am**

The governmental equivalent of reply all?

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:40 am**

So, Lindsey Graham is basically saying that when they voted on impeaching Clinton, 30 Dems voted with them. Put this to a vote and see what happens, so how partisan this is. They've wanted to impeach Trump since day one, they had the bogus collusion inquiry, now this...

That's enough for the durr hurr crowd. We'll see if the Dems can just hammer the simplicity of the Ukrainian president asking for weapons and Trump immediately asking for a favor to investigate Biden.

He opened talking about all the shady stuff around Biden and Ukraine... Which, if true... So the fuck what? How is that something the President (and his personal lawyer) should be getting involved with at this level. The only explanation is for campaign reasons.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:41 am**

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:34 am The governmental equivalent of reply all?

the.democrats@ushouse.gov

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:55 pm**

Email 3 - Attached is our formal recall request in PDF format. Thank you

Email 4 - Oops, forgot the attachment. Here it is.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:21 pm**

This is an exceptionally cogent point I think. This whole weeklong+ newscycle about this has me really confused because I feel like I'm missing something where the GOP is usually on top of their game with deflecting anything and it just seems like they keep stepping on rakes and it almost has me thinking I'm not really understanding what the hell is going on but when I go to the news or Twitter or whatever everybody seems to agree with me still that this shit is really, really bad for Trump.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:57 pm**

Trump's press conference/"statement" is a fucking train wreck (well, more so than usual even). He is very much not well. I think when you factor in everything, there's probably only about a 75 percent chance he finishes out his term. Maybe even a little lower.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:02 pm**

brian wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:21 pm This is an exceptionally cogent point I think. This whole weeklong+ newscycle about this has me really confused because I feel like I'm missing something where the GOP is usually on top of their game with deflecting anything and it just seems like they keep stepping on rakes and it almost has me thinking I'm not really understanding what the hell is going on but when I go to the news or Twitter or whatever everybody seems to agree with me still that this shit is really, really bad for Trump.

Is it possible that we are seeing the full incompetence of the White House as opposed to the craven slickness of the G.O.P.?

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:13 pm**

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:23 pm**

I still bet on craven slickness.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:27 pm**

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:23 pm I still bet on craven slickness.

From the GOP, yes. From Trump, no.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:56 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:13 pm

He'd throw Pence under the bus in a heartbeat if he thought it might save his own skin.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:24 pm**

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:56 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:13 pm
He'd throw Pence under the bus in a heartbeat if he thought it might save his own skin.

Hell, he'd shiv Melania if it made him $10.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:34 pm**

The, no matter how remote, possibility of this ending with President Nancy Pelosi makes me giggle. Don't even care for her that much, but the rage from the right would be delicious.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:38 pm**

Sasse is so weak and self-serving you have to take everything he says with a grain of salt. That said...

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:42 pm**

Real 80s-90s kids see his name and think Self-Addressed Stamps Envelope.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:42 pm**

Trump said the Mueller Report already exonerated him from collusion and obstruction. The BBC's focus last night was on what Biden did and how Americans can't don't want another impeachment because of the Clinton one. It's so frustrating. There have been blatant impeachable offenses from day one and the Dems sat on them; it's stupid and it's neglectful of your elected duty. And now a Republican talking point is the Dems have been talking about impeachment from day one so they're crying wolf again -- that's why you don't talk about it and just do it --impeachment should have happened the day the Dems took over the House. Instead the wait for a mythical smoking gun as Trump fucks the country even more. Even if this was a brilliant political long play by the Dems, the damage to the country and world is already done, and Pelosi let it happen.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:42 pm**

There's never a right answer with this shit. Everything can be spun no matter what. There will always always always be spin.

Hell, they impeachment immediately and there'd be talk about coups or something.

Anyhoo, this timeline I saw in Reddit comments is staggering:

- July 25 - Ukraine phonecall
- July 28 - Dan Coats resigns because he feels his duties are at odds with Trump.
- July 28 - Trump announces Ratcliffe as his pick.
- Aug. 2 - Ratcliffe denounces his pick less than *a week later* amidst criticisms of partisan loyalty and resume padding.
- Aug. 8 - Trump picks Maguire.
- Aug. 8 - Dan Coats [interrupts a meeting to urge his deputy, Sue Gordon to resign](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/09/politics ... index.html). She announces her resignation.
- Aug. 12 - Whistleblower complaint is filed.
- Aug. 15 - Coats and Gordon depart (both are Trump admin nominees).
- Aug. 26 - Intelligence IG forwards complaint to the acting DNI.
- Aug. 28 - First [reporting](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/ ... ia-1689531) that Ukraine military aid is being withheld.
- Sep. 2 - Deadline passes for complaint submission.
- Sep. 9 - Intel IG notifies House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff of an "urgent concern" that DNI has overruled.
- Sep. 10 - Schiff demands DNI submit complaint.
- Sep. 12 - Trump finally releases Ukraine military aid.
- Sep. 13 - Schiff subpoenas Maguire.
- Sep. 17 - Maguire refuses to testify - suspicions of WH/DOJ stonewalling.
- Sep. 18 - Media revelations of the "promise" made to foreign nation.
- Sep. 19 - Media revelations that Ukraine is involved.
- Sep. 19 - The Intelligence inspector general gives a classified briefing to the House Intelligence Committee.
- Sep. 20 - It's reported that Trump pressed Zelensky to investigate Biden's son during a call on July 25.
- Sep. 22 - Trump acknowledges that he discussed Joe Biden in a July call with Zelensky.
- Sep. 24 - Pelosi announces impeachment inquiry.
- Maguire had sent a letter to the whistleblower's legal team noting that the executive is preventing his submission of the complaint, but reassures the whistleblower that they have followed procedure and they will be protected.
- Sep. 25 - Officials report that Maguire threatened to resign if pressured to stonewall Congress by the WH.
- Sep. 25 - Whistleblower complaint to be sent to Congress at 4 PM E.T.
- Sep. 26 (tomorrow) - Maguire scheduled to testify.

This is becoming an absolutely massive scandal.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:02 pm**

You could very easily convince me that Trump has invested so little effort into learning his role that he didn’t even understand the magnitude of what he did.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:08 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:02 pm You could very easily convince me that Trump has invested so little effort into learning his role that he didn’t even understand the magnitude of what he did.

That’s where I’ve landed. Also, that he got away with it already in his mind in 2016 so is surprised that this time it is a problem.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:33 pm**

EdRomero wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:42 pm Trump said the Mueller Report already exonerated him from collusion and obstruction. The BBC's focus last night was on what Biden did and how Americans can't don't want another impeachment because of the Clinton one. It's so frustrating. There have been blatant impeachable offenses from day one and the Dems sat on them; it's stupid and it's neglectful of your elected duty. And now a Republican talking point is the Dems have been talking about impeachment from day one so they're crying wolf again -- that's why you don't talk about it and just do it --impeachment should have happened the day the Dems took over the House. Instead the wait for a mythical smoking gun as Trump fucks the country even more. Even if this was a brilliant political long play by the Dems, the damage to the country and world is already done, and Pelosi let it happen.

Sit down, and shut.the.fuck.up.

Choke on Brady's earth-water-cock and swallow.

Release the throat muscle and them Gronkowski will line up.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:32 pm**

Weird.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:38 pm**

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:52 pm**

Romero:

Even with all this evidence and regardless of how many articles of impeachment the House comes up with on Day One or whenever perception matters. An impeachment proceeding on Jan 6 really would have been perceived as a witch hunt even though we all know/knew Trump was/is corrupt. In politics, perception is reality. You can bemoan that all you want but it’s true. That has nothing to do with “compromise” it has to do with common sense. You can be George McGovern and be the most pure, liberal, honest candidate and if you lose 46 states then you’re still just a fuckin’ loser. Let’s be righteous but let’s also fucking win.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:10 pm**

We could know by Thursday Night Football if Trump is going to finish out his term*

*-wannabe super clear I think conviction in Senate or resignation is unlikely....BUT if the whole whistleblower report is released mostly unredacted we’ll have an idea of the scope of this thing. It’s clearly impeachable already though.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:48 am**

Whistleblower Complaint has been released.

https://intelligence.house.gov/uploaded ... nclass.pdf

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:03 am**

The lesson, as ever -- the coverup is always worse than the crime. That's what's going to make the impeachment process a slam dunk but unless any other information comes forward or there are any other smoking guns the GOPers in the Senate will sweep this under the rug.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:08 am**

Oh, and I'm not a lawyer, but seems like Guiliani is pretty well fucked and by the time his case gets to trial Trump might not be around to pardon him. Barr would be toast in a normal administration as well.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:04 am**

But also, the crime here is bad.

And further also, they've improperly (so not surprised) hidden other shit that shouldn't have been hidden with regard to recordings etc that hopefully will now come to light.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:08 am**

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:04 am But also, the crime here is bad.

And further also, they've improperly (so not surprised) hidden other shit that shouldn't have been hidden with regard to recordings etc that hopefully will now come to light.

It'll be interesting to see where things go from here. It's entirely possible other whistleblowers will come forward and that really could spell the end of his presidency, but short of anything specific from sources familiar with anything on those records it's going to be hard to imagine how anything could be subpoenaed.

But when this stuff starts getting declassified -- whenever that is -- in some cases it'll probably be years or decades from now, the scale and scope of the criminality of this president will be flabbergasting. Just the stuff we know about is flabbergasting. Imagine what's being successfully covered up.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:21 am**

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:48 am Whistleblower Complaint has been released.

https://intelligence.house.gov/uploaded ... nclass.pdf

The knowledge that the Whistleblower has would surely make it easy for an insider to identify him or her... wouldn't it?

Seen too many espionage movies, maybe - but wouldn't this person be in some personal danger right about now?

The Swamp

Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

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Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House

Re: Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part III - A Democratic House