Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:59 pmI think Sanders is a stronger general election candidate than Biden for three main reasons:
1. He has a much more robust ground game and far larger base of volunteers.
2. To the extent Trump’s appeal to independents is issue-based, as opposed to based on cultural resentments, it comes from his skepticism about free trade, criticism of indefinite wars, and willingness to consider sentencing reform. Biden has significant vulnerabilities on those issues that Sanders doesn’t have.
3. Even people who disagree with his policies tend to view Sanders as a principled man of honesty and integrity. Biden is a serial liar and exaggerator, with very real nepotism issues. That makes it harder to hit Trump for having those same flaws.
I don't know if Point 1 will be relevant in November. I think the Dems will have plenty of ground game in November no matter who the candidate is.
I'd like to see your evidence about the second.
Regarding the third, you may be right, though I think people generally like Biden, and that will go a long way.
But at any rate, can you at least admit you are totally guessing about all of this? Even if points 2 and 3 are both correct, is there any evidence they are going to be more important than the fact that Sanders is out of step ideologically with the vast majority of Americans?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:57 pm
Wasn't 2018 when a bunch of progressives picked up shocking victories, both inside the Dem party and then in November?
It’s also a bad comparison to compare midterms to general election years because the party out of power almost always gains seats in midterms. The Dems got cleaned out in 2010 and then Obama got re-elected pretty comfortably.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:59 pmI think Sanders is a stronger general election candidate than Biden for three main reasons:
1. He has a much more robust ground game and far larger base of volunteers.
2. To the extent Trump’s appeal to independents is issue-based, as opposed to based on cultural resentments, it comes from his skepticism about free trade, criticism of indefinite wars, and willingness to consider sentencing reform. Biden has significant vulnerabilities on those issues that Sanders doesn’t have.
3. Even people who disagree with his policies tend to view Sanders as a principled man of honesty and integrity. Biden is a serial liar and exaggerator, with very real nepotism issues. That makes it harder to hit Trump for having those same flaws.
I don't know if Point 1 will be relevant in November. I think the Dems will have plenty of ground game in November no matter who the candidate is.
I'd like to see your evidence about the second.
Regarding the third, you may be right, though I think people generally like Biden, and that will go a long way.
But at any rate, can you at least admit you are totally guessing about all of this? Even if points 2 and 3 are both correct, is there any evidence they are going to be more important than the fact that Sanders is out of step ideologically with the vast majority of Americans?
Trump outperformed other recent GOP candidates in the upper Midwest (NAFTA) and in areas with particularly high
numbers of Iraq/Afghanistan vets.
But yeah, it’s obviously all a guess. I just think people are focusing a lot on Sanders’ potential flaws while ignoring glaring issues with Biden.
mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:57 pm
Wasn't 2018 when a bunch of progressives picked up shocking victories, both inside the Dem party and then in November?
It’s also a bad comparison to compare midterms to general election years because the party out of power almost always gains seats in midterms. The Dems got cleaned out in 2010 and then Obama got re-elected pretty comfortably.
The Dems got one of the biggest margins for the House in the past few decades. Bigger than what the Republicans got in 2010. They picked up 41 seats. Out-parties usually don't do that.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
I've seen polls indicate that Sanders has as much African-American support as Biden. But, Biden proved that support in South Carolina more than Sanders did. I think his tie to Obama goes a long way with many Blacks. I think getting the African-American voter to care enough to vote will be key in the presidential election.
I agree with Steve on the points discussed above.
The republicans are going to shout, "Socialist, Socialist, Socialist!" if Bernie gets the nod. I agree that a a reasoned argument can easily refute that, but that isn't the point. The point is - If you don't think that will be an effective argument on undecided voters in swing states, I think you are deluding yourself.
I don't like uncle Joe any better than uncle Bernie, but I think he is more electable.
sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:19 pm
The republicans are going to shout, "Socialist, Socialist, Socialist!" if Bernie gets the nod. I agree that a a reasoned argument can easily refute that, but that isn't the point. The point is - If you don't think that will be an effective argument on undecided voters in swing states, I think you are deluding yourself.
Remember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
P.D.X. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:55 pm
What's the calculus here? That creepy Biden vids are going to sway voters more than creepy Trump vids?
The point is that it’s harder to capitalize on the fact that Trump is a creep if your own candidate is also one. Just like it’s harder to criticize Trump for putting Ivanka and Jared in important roles when Hunter Biden repeatedly got well-paying board positions despite being a total screw-up.
P.D.X. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:55 pm
What's the calculus here? That creepy Biden vids are going to sway voters more than creepy Trump vids?
The point is that it’s harder to capitalize on the fact that Trump is a creep if your own candidate is also one. Just like it’s harder to criticize Trump for putting Ivanka and Jared in important roles when Hunter Biden repeatedly got well-paying board positions despite being a total screw-up.
Also the Democrats run righteously while the GOP run as assholes.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:36 pm
I'm telling you, undecided voters are going to care a hell a lot more about the Socialist tag on Bernie than they care about the warts on Biden.
This is where I'm at. My wife is very progressive and really likes Warren. Bernie scares the Hell out of her.
(My wife is firmly in the educated suburban female voter that is vital if the Dems are gonna win in November. I know Bernie has positives in other demographics, too... I'm just reporting on what I know from a Happy Hour I just attended that these are not Bernie people. Moderate, fairly affluent, suburban voters are very frightened not just that Bernie will lose, but that he will severely fuck with their pocketbook.)
It's obviously all anecdotal, but it's definitely something to chew on.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:36 pm
I'm telling you, undecided voters are going to care a hell a lot more about the Socialist tag on Bernie than they care about the warts on Biden.
This is where I'm at. My wife is very progressive and really likes Warren. Bernie scares the Hell out of her.
(My wife is firmly in the educated suburban female voter that is vital if the Dems are gonna win in November. I know Bernie has positives in other demographics, too... I'm just reporting on what I know from a Happy Hour I just attended that these are not Bernie people. Moderate, fairly affluent, suburban voters are very frightened not just that Bernie will lose, but that he will severely fuck with their pocketbook.)
It's obviously all anecdotal, but it's definitely something to chew on.
Why is the educated suburban female voter demographic more vital than the youth vote or the Latino vote or the votes of low-income people? I think there’s a risk to making anecdotal assumptions based on one’s own social circle. The (mostly affluent) Dems in my social circles have been far more likely to support Warren or Pete than Biden or Sanders — but clearly that’s not remotely reflective of the country as a whole. For two different election cycles now, Sanders has beat Trump in over 90% of national head-to-head polls. And it’s not like the socialist label has been a secret that whole time.
Steve, you don't see where attempting to replace the pro-corporate, bad-with-women liar and his grifter children with a pro-corporate, bad-with-women liar and his grifter child might be an issue, even if we can agree its to lesser degrees?
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
Hunter traded off his name to get a job he had no business getting for a major Ukrainian company during a time his father was actively involved in US policy towards Ukraine. Even if not illegal, that’s certainly corrupt.
sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:36 pm
I'm telling you, undecided voters are going to care a hell a lot more about the Socialist tag on Bernie than they care about the warts on Biden.
This is where I'm at. My wife is very progressive and really likes Warren. Bernie scares the Hell out of her.
(My wife is firmly in the educated suburban female voter that is vital if the Dems are gonna win in November. I know Bernie has positives in other demographics, too... I'm just reporting on what I know from a Happy Hour I just attended that these are not Bernie people. Moderate, fairly affluent, suburban voters are very frightened not just that Bernie will lose, but that he will severely fuck with their pocketbook.)
It's obviously all anecdotal, but it's definitely something to chew on.
Why is the educated suburban female voter demographic more vital than the youth vote or the Latino vote or the votes of low-income people? I think there’s a risk to making anecdotal assumptions based on one’s own social circle. The (mostly affluent) Dems in my social circles have been far more likely to support Warren or Pete than Biden or Sanders — but clearly that’s not remotely reflective of the country as a whole. For two different election cycles now, Sanders has beat Trump in over 90% of national head-to-head polls. And it’s not like the socialist label has been a secret that whole time.
The poll doesn't count until you're really head-to-head. Sanders is just now finding out what it's like in the trenches. First from Democrats and then if he survives, from Republicans. I don't believe it until I see an after Milwaukee poll.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
Did you see the impeachment trial?
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:50 pm
Steve, you don't see where attempting to replace the pro-corporate, bad-with-women liar and his grifter children with a pro-corporate, bad-with-women liar and his grifter child might be an issue, even if we can agree its to lesser degrees?
That would be a problem.
But Jesus Fucking Christ. How anyone can see what's been happening the past three years and somehow use the same "pro-corporate" phrase to describe Biden and Trump. Seriously. Get out of your bubble. Look at what's actually been happening in the fields of pollution controls, food safety, worker safety, equal pay, labor rights, consumer protection, wage and hour enforcement, income tax rates, corporate political spending, antitrust enforcement, tax auditing, equal employment opportunity, fuel efficiency requirements, drilling and mining on public lands, drilling and mining on private lands, regulation of investment advisors, regulation of banks, or really, anything having to do with corporations.
It's not "to a lesser degree." It is a completely different world.
Jesus Fucking Christ.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
Did you see the impeachment trial?
Thank you. And you can bank on the Senate Republicans opening a formal Senate investigation into Hunter, Joe and Ukraine if Joe becomes the presumptive nominee. Lindsey Graham has probably already prepared the subpoenas.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
Did you see the impeachment trial?
Thank you. And you can bank on the Senate Republicans opening a formal Senate investigation into Hunter, Joe and Ukraine if Joe becomes the presumptive nominee. Lindsey Graham has probably already prepared the subpoenas.
Maybe I missed it. How many voters voted for Trump during the impeachment trial?
Yes, the Republicans will make noise about it. But it will be stupid.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:01 pmLook at what's actually been happening in the fields of pollution controls, food safety, worker safety, equal pay, labor rights, consumer protection, wage and hour enforcement, income tax rates, corporate political spending, antitrust enforcement, tax auditing, equal employment opportunity, fuel efficiency requirements, drilling and mining on public lands, drilling and mining on private lands, regulation of investment advisors, regulation of banks, or really, anything having to do with corporations.
It's not "to a lesser degree." It is a completely different world.
Jesus Fucking Christ.
That’s not pro-Biden, it’s pick anyone else besides Trump, which includes a world of people who aren’t Biden and don’t have Biden’s baggage. And Christ alfuckingmighty google “Biden DuPont” before leading with pollution controls.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:24 pm
It is stupid that a reality TV con man who's been in the American zeitgeist for decades is president, but here we fucking are.
Pounding Biden and his cokehead son who was discharged from the military (and is currently being accused by the stripper he impregnated of hiding income to avoid paying child support) on everything Ukraine is going to sink his presidential campaign. Book it.
mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:34 pmThat’s not pro-Biden, it’s pick anyone else besides Trump, which includes a world of people who aren’t Biden and don’t have Biden’s baggage. And Christ alfuckingmighty google “Biden DuPont” before leading with pollution controls.
Believe me, if I could, I would. We are left with who we are left with. I'd rather see either of the two candidates who just dropped out than Biden.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:27 pmRemember “but her emails!!”? Multiply that by 10 with all the Hunter Biden scandals if Joe is the nominee.
How is having a son who traded on his name anything close to the email scandal? Hillary kept government emails on a server within her own private control, and she was already seen as dirty because of stuff like the foundation and Whitewater and paid speeches and rigging the primary.
To the extent any voters are going to cast their votes based on the appearance of impropriety, or children trading on their father's name, I don't think those folks are going to vote for Trump.
Did you see the impeachment trial?
Thank you. And you can bank on the Senate Republicans opening a formal Senate investigation into Hunter, Joe and Ukraine if Joe becomes the presumptive nominee. Lindsey Graham has probably already prepared the subpoenas.
Maybe I missed it. How many voters voted for Trump during the impeachment trial?
Yes, the Republicans will make noise about it. But it will be stupid.
While not the same as voting, Trump's poll numbers went up during the impeachment trial. I think a lot of people uninformed and swing voters believe the Dems had it in for Trump, and seeing the lack of witnesses or first hand evidence (blocked by GOP) as proof that the Dems impeached without sufficient evidence or a case. Trump and the GOP lie, and their lies stick while the facts against Trump never do. I do think Trump and the GOP can level attacks on Biden that are 100% true of Trump, and it will hurt Biden while having no effect on Trump. I think a lot of Republicans who don't like Trump will vote for Trump if they believe Biden is the same as Trump, because if they have to vote between two womanizing old men who allow their lowlife children to profit off their names, they will stick with the Republican, because it's really hard for them to vote against their Party. Is it stupid and a false comparison? Absolutely, but when has logic and sense factor into the average American voter's decisions?
Like George Carlin said, picture the average American and how fucking stupid he is, then realize 50% of Americans are even dumber.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
-Pruitt
