2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

[brian]

What are the odds they redraw AOC's district in New York so that she doesn't get elected next time?

She can run for Senate by then I think.

[Johnnie]

Everything in the menchies of that Lindy Li clip is something. She was fired a few weeks ago over anti semetic stuff said about Bernie and then complained on Ben Shapiro's show about it.

Hell, Don Cheadle asked Uhl if there's a clip that goes the other way, seemingly semi defending Li's bullshit.

Regardless, Medhi Hasan is pretty damn good at getting to the point.

[Johnnie]

What are the odds they redraw AOC's district in New York so that she doesn't get elected next time?

She can run for Senate by then I think.

That would be great.

[Joe K]

What are the odds they redraw AOC's district in New York so that she doesn't get elected next time?

She can run for Senate by then I think.

That would be great.

Can you run for President if you don't turn 35 until after the primaries but before the General Election? Asking because AOC has a legit shot at the nomination in 2024 if that's true and she wants it. (My scenario involves Biden getting the nomination this year and losing to Trump, both of which seem very likely to me.) Someone will inherit the Sanders political movement when he ages out of national politics, and AOC seems the most likely candidate now. Warren was the natural successor* but I think her use of the supposed meanness of Sanders supporters** as justification for a non-endorsement that helps Biden tremendously will cost her that shot. Particularly with Sanders' very high popularity with Latino voters, AOC seems like the next leader. Crazy to think that she could go from 28 year old bartender to legitimate presidential contender in 6 years, but I really think it's possible.


* A big "what if" moment in American politics is that Sanders never even wanted to run for President in 2016. He urged Warren to run and only ran himself because she was unwilling to face Hillary in a primary. Despite that back story, Warren not only never endorsed Sanders against Clinton, she's now doing the same with Biden even though the very reason she got involved in politics to begin with was to argue against the awfulness of Biden's bankruptcy bill. IMO she's tried way too hard to make nice with a party establishment that will never really back her (see, e.g., all the coveted endorsements going to a declining Biden when Warren was still in the race.)

** The supposed unique meanness of Sanders supporters online is one of the most irritating storylines in politics. It's taken as a given that Sanders has uniquely bad supporters when there's never been any empirical evidence of that. The only effort I've seen to measure looked at the 2016 campaign and found no evidence that Sanders supporters were meaner than backers of Clinton or the Republicans. Moreover, prominent Sanders surrogates and supporters also face all kinds of nastiness both on and offline. Someone should check out Nina Turner's and Briahna Joy Gray's mentions if they think supporters of other Democratic candidates are all angels. But you won't see Biden personally asked to apologize for, as just one example, Hillary Rosen saying racist shit to Turner on CNN earlier this week.

[tennbengal]

Here for this - click through to the embedded thread:

[degenerasian]

Joe K: AOC is too radical and disliked within the DNC for a 2024 run. Shes better off going for Schumers 2022 Senate seat and going from there.

[Joe K]

Joe K: AOC is too radical and disliked within the DNC for a 2024 run. Shes better off going for Schumers 2022 Senate seat and going from there.

Being disliked by the Party is also a huge obstacle to challenging the Senate seat of Schumer (or Gillibrand). There is tons of (legal and illegal) money in New York State politics and a lot of advantages that come with incumbency there. I’m just saying that Sanders has a huge group of passionate supporters that will be available after he’s done with national politics. Other politicians won’t just ignore that. And she’s been a very loyal and effective supporter and is far more known nationally than Khanna or Jayapal.

[degenerasian]

It will still be moderate in 2024.

Pete, Kamala, Amy, Booker, Beto get another kick at the can with more experience.

Schumer will be 71 in 2022 and 73 in 2024. Maybe he should run for president :)

[Joe K]

It will still be moderate in 2024.

Pete, Kamala, Amy, Booker, Beto get another kick at the can with more experience.

Schumer will be 71 in 2022 and 73 in 2024. Maybe he should run for president :)

I'm not saying AOC would necessarily win, but that she'd be a strong contender. Many Sanders voters who would be reluctant to back any of those people you listed. I also would like to see AOC run (either in 2024 or later on) because I think her candidacy would expose the disingenuousness of a lot of the people who have claimed they support progressive policies but don't like Sanders because his supporters are sexist or because HE'S NOT A DEMOCRAT.

[Johnnie]

I need a "Corn Pop was a Bernie Brother" T Shirt.

[Joe K]

He has it wrong. Everyone knows that “Bernie Bros” is short for Bernard Brethren.

ETA: there’s also no way in hell that Biden himself spends any time on Twitter, Facebook, JOE30330 or any other online platforms. So I bet his staff had fun explaining the whole “Bernie Brothers” talking point to him.

[mister d]

Lookin’ good:

[Joe K]

There’s this too:

[degenerasian]

Odds that Biden already knows the questions,

[Joe K]

By the way, this clip is from a different Biden speech in Missouri yesterday from the one Mr. D posted.

[Joe K]

Harris endorsing Biden, but only after the California primary, is pretty on-brand.



I wonder why Harris didn’t endorse Warren a couple weeks ago, given her impassioned views on the importance of female leadership and the fact that she literally sold merchandise based on her criticism of Biden in that one debate? Not sure the reason but it surely can’t have anything to do with the Democratic Establishment, which I’ve been reassured does not exist.

[Johnnie]

That endorsement. That endorsement was me.

ETA

This tweet aged so well:

[degenerasian]

Jesse Jackson endorses Bernie. Interesting.

[Joe K]

Jesse Jackson endorses Bernie. Interesting.

Bernie was one of the only white politicians who endorsed Jackson when he ran for President in the 80s. Bernie got slapped by an angry white lady in Vermont because she was so mad about that endorsement.

[HaulCitgo]

Jesse hasn't been relevant in 20 years. Would have been better off with Roddy Ricch.

[Joe K]

Jesse hasn't been relevant in 20 years. Would have been better off with Roddy Ricch.

He’s still in the race!

[brian]

Now that it’s pretty obviously Biden vs Trump this thread fell to the second page.

[Johnnie]

I'm bummed, but whatever.

But it is nice to know how many people across the country hated Hillary in 2016. Good thing Joe didn't run 4 years ago.

[Joe K]

I'm bummed, but whatever.

But it is nice to know how many people across the country hated Hillary in 2016. Good thing Joe didn't run 4 years ago.

Although Coronavirus virus and the governmental and economic response to it is a massive wild card, I still think Biden does worse than Hillary in the General Election. Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

And guess what age bracket campaigns rely on for volunteers and GOTV operation?

Also, Biden has a bizarre incident or verbal stumble at literally every event of his. Yesterday he told a union worker in Michigan, perhaps the single most important general election state, that he was full of shit and threatened to slap him.

The word “gaslighting” gets way overused in politics but if you look at what the term actually means, this is a perfect example of it. The guy looks terrible, even compared to how he was in 2016 or 2018, everyone with eyes and common sense can see it, and he probably can’t even finish one term. There’s a reason why every ambitious Dem is rushing to endorse him (or in Warren’s case, to do a very impactful non-endorsement) — it’s evident that his VP may need to step in, and soon.

But the entire Democratic Party and it’s media cheerleaders decided to close ranks, and are treating any commentary about it as a Trump/Russian plot. Good luck keeping that up through November.

[Pruitt]

Those shots can sometimes be taken out of context etc., etc., but other than his voice, Biden looks like - and we've all seen this - an old person who is keeping it together... for now.

ETA: referring to the second video

[HaulCitgo]

That clip was worth millions. Free ad that makes him look like a no nonsense straight shooter. Look at brothermans face when he said it. Guy got that vote immediately. I'm sure your girl would have had a civil discussion and gotten no value from that interaction and that's why she's at home.

He will not do worse than Hillary. Nobody would. If nothing else it proves he is fully prepared to get into it with Trump. And the other dude just had a heart attack but its Biden you need to worry about not finishing a term? The kids will come out to help defeat Trump anyway. And he doesn't even need them. The Democratic machine will give him the organization he hasn't built yet.

[Johnnie]

Pretty sure Biden said he's a one and done president. So whoever his VP is going to be is the one to groom for 2024 against DJT or DJTJ.

[Jerloma]

Remember, when the right decided to go full out fascist, the center got dragged that way. If you allow yourself to be dragged with it, you're not a centrist, you're just a sheep.

My left nut could beat DJT in a debate and we're going to elect the only person that absolutely might manage to embarrass himself even more. Sad.

[Joe K]

That clip was worth millions. Free ad that makes him look like a no nonsense straight shooter. Look at brothermans face when he said it. Guy got that vote immediately. I'm sure your girl would have had a civil discussion and gotten no value from that interaction and that's why she's at home.

He will not do worse than Hillary. Nobody would. If nothing else it proves he is fully prepared to get into it with Trump. And the other dude just had a heart attack but its Biden you need to worry about not finishing a term? The kids will come out to help defeat Trump anyway. And he doesn't even need them. The Democratic machine will give him the organization he hasn't built yet.

If everything is fine with Biden and he’s just a straight-shooter ready to go toe to toe with Trump, then surely there won’t be any efforts to cancel the remaining debates or otherwise limit his speaking events before the Convention. Let’s see what happens.

ETA: obviously it makes sense to limit crowded events due to Corona. But apart from that I’m curious how much we see and hear if him the next few months.

[HaulCitgo]

Never said everything was fine. I agree. He is losing his cognitive abilities. But that happens to most everyone as they age. That said, he is plenty competent to stand there in a suit while we debate the merits of a Trump second term. And certainly that clip is not a good example of his loss of cognition. If anything, its the opposite. That scene would play nicely on a debate stage.

[Steve of phpBB]

Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

Half the voters are over 50. Doing really well with them is not a bad thing.

And young voters hate Trump. They will vote for Biden.

[Johnnie]

I wonder if he wins, steps down, and then the Veep gets to takeover. And this was all a ruse to get someone else in power on Biden's name. Seems like a calculated way to regain power, but could ostracize a part of those that elected him.

[Ryan]

Yeah but then the "president" says that's not allowed and vacates the title and they have to hold a big tournament in...oh my god, Trump Plaza Atlantic City

[Giff]

Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

Half the voters are over 50. Doing really well with them is not a bad thing.

And young voters hate Trump. They will vote for Biden.

Yeah, pretty sure that combination won him the nomination. Young people just don't vote. They had their candidate in a prime position to win the nomination and didn't turn out. Are young people all of the sudden going to turn out in the general election to vote for Trump?

[Joe K]

Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

Half the voters are over 50. Doing really well with them is not a bad thing.

And young voters hate Trump. They will vote for Biden.

I agree that they’ll vote for Biden, although GOP governors in states like Florida and Ohio will probably ensure that college students have to wait in really long lines to do so. But the question is, will they drop everything in their lives for up to six months to volunteer for a Biden campaign to help him on the ground in the key swing states? Tons of young people were inspired to do so for Obama. And for all the people that dislike Hillary she also had plenty of passionate supporters. I don’t see that with Biden—at all.

[govmentchedda]

I wonder if he wins, steps down, and then the Veep gets to takeover. And this was all a ruse to get someone else in power on Biden's name. Seems like a calculated way to regain power, but could ostracize a part of those that elected him.

I'm coming around to the idea that this is the only way we get a woman president.

[tennbengal]

Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

Half the voters are over 50. Doing really well with them is not a bad thing.

And young voters hate Trump. They will vote for Biden.

I agree that they’ll vote for Biden, although GOP governors in states like Florida and Ohio will probably ensure that college students have to wait in really long lines to do so. But the question is, will they drop everything in their lives for up to six months to volunteer for a Biden campaign to help him on the ground in the key swing states? Tons of young people were inspired to do so for Obama. And for all the people that dislike Hillary she also had plenty of passionate supporters. I don’t see that with Biden—at all.

Maybe the anti-Trump vote is enough. That's one read of 2018. And also a plausible read of what's happening with Biden.

[mister d]

And certainly that clip is not a good example of his loss of cognition. If anything, its the opposite.

People in cognitive decline often react angrily in situations they wouldn't have a decade earlier. But I guess that's a feature, not a bug now?

[Joe K]

Even in states he’s winning there’s a massive generational split — he does terribly with voters under 30, not very well with voters 30-50, and really well with voters over 50.

Half the voters are over 50. Doing really well with them is not a bad thing.

And young voters hate Trump. They will vote for Biden.

I agree that they’ll vote for Biden, although GOP governors in states like Florida and Ohio will probably ensure that college students have to wait in really long lines to do so. But the question is, will they drop everything in their lives for up to six months to volunteer for a Biden campaign to help him on the ground in the key swing states? Tons of young people were inspired to do so for Obama. And for all the people that dislike Hillary she also had plenty of passionate supporters. I don’t see that with Biden—at all.

Maybe the anti-Trump vote is enough. That's one read of 2018. And also a plausible read of what's happening with Biden.

Here’s a report that address my point about young voters, taking a close look at the 2008 campaign.

https://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/ ... -election/

In addition to providing Barack Obama and other Democrats with strong support this year, young voters were unusually active in the campaign. According to Pew’s post-election survey of voters, fully 28% of young voters in battleground states said they had attended a campaign event, far more than among other age groups. They were less likely than older voters to contribute money to the campaign, but according to the survey nearly one-in-ten (9%) did so, compared with the overall average of 17%.

But the electoral influence of young voters also depends on efforts made to mobilize them. According to the exit polls, young voters in key battleground states this year were far more likely to have been contacted by the Obama campaign than by the McCain campaign – and in some states they were more likely than older voters to have been contacted, a significant reversal from past patterns.

I’ve seen elsewhere that Obama had as many as 2.2 million volunteers for the 2008 campaign, and I’d bet that demographic skewed very young.

[Nonlinear FC]

Not really sure what you guys are proposing here?

It is what it is, fellas. Nobody I've talked to is enthusiastic about Biden, but they also weren't confident in Bernie.

It's not ideal, but at this point I don't really see another path forward. If it was Warren, you'd have a LOT more juice around some kind of maneuvering, but way too many moderate voters are (and always have been) spooked by Bernie being labeled a commie the entire campaign.

Lesser of two evils. Is Trump being a historically horrible president enough? I've been saying yes for 3.5 years. We'll obviously see soon enough. (Though not soon enough for any of us, I'm sure.)