The Swamp

I know Biden leads, but has there been a poll yet that consolidates the rest into "Biden versus Other"? Or does Sanders (and maybe Warren) make that question too muddy?

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:22 pm I know Biden leads, but has there been a poll yet that consolidates the rest into "Biden versus Other"? Or does Sanders (and maybe Warren) make that question too muddy?

There was a poll that came out a few days ago that appeared to have various combinations and ranked choices and whatever. It was a poll in Iowa. You might be able to get that information, at least for Iowa, from there.

This is some Trump-level nonsense from Biden, for the reason Law notes:

CANCER FORCE

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:44 pmCANCER FORCE

Is this their logo?

Joe K wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:21 pm This is some Trump-level nonsense from Biden, for the reason Law notes:

Pretty much guarantee that if candidate Trump had said something like this and then people responded as seen above, Hannity would accuse that person of being pro-cancer.

If we assume the samples are legit, how does one reconcile this with only like 25% actively advocating impeachment?



(That's rhetorical.)

I get that reference!

"The bones are their money, Republicans aren't so bad, they used to be my friends, but the skeletons have come to life..."

Anyone ask him why he's starting to bleed supporters to Elizabeth Warren?

He's still leading her in the polls, which really don't mean shit at this point.

But I know any mention of Bernie gets your LVK underroos all in a bunch.

I've got a long post in my head about Bernie, but kind of done stirring up shit on the site for the day. :-)

Put in a positive and concise way: Bernie won the battle for the heart of the party, just look at what is mainstream among a majority of the candidates now versus in 2016. The issue for him is that he's not out there on a progressive island alone anymore.

On the negative side, there are perception issues for him that go beyond his policies (old, Democratic Socialist - not a real Democrat). And unlike everyone other than Biden, his reputation/brand can't really be rebuilt. He's a known commodity, for better or worse.

(I'm going to let the debates play out, but I'm starting line up behind Warren.)

I like Warren and Bernie. But I just don’t agree with the notion that their positions are indistinguishable. Bernie is more solid than Warren on M4A, where she’s been a bit squishy, and is far better on foreign policy.* There are other issues where I think she’s better.


* Foreign policy is one area in particular where Bernie “not being a real Democrat” is a big point in his favor. For as long as I can remember, the Democratic Party has largely accepted the GOP’s belligerence, out of a cowardly fear of being labeled “soft.” That’s why most establishment Dems were on board with the Pence/Rubio coup attempt in Venezuela and why just this week so-called “Resistance” leaders like Pelosi and Adam Schiff are echoing Mike Pompeo’s highly dubious assertions about Iran and the “tanker attack.”

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:53 pm I've got a long post in my head about Bernie, but kind of done stirring up shit on the site for the day. :-)

Stir it up, brother! It is good for all of us to have hard discussions at times. We need everyone to voice their opinion on all the candidates. I know I have been swayed to Warren by discussion here. I was never on board with Bernie in 2016 and I am not on board for 2020, but he has pushed the Democrat agenda to being more progressive which is a good thing. Who cares if you ruffle some feathers. We won't take it out on you until you start dancing a fucking jig when your top candidate wipes everyone off the map.

duff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:33 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:53 pm I've got a long post in my head about Bernie, but kind of done stirring up shit on the site for the day. :-)

Stir it up, brother! It is good for all of us to have hard discussions at times. We need everyone to voice their opinion on all the candidates. I know I have been swayed to Warren by discussion here. I was never on board with Bernie in 2016 and I am not on board for 2020, but he has pushed the Democrat agenda to being more progressive which is a good thing. Who cares if you ruffle some feathers. We won't take it out on you until you start dancing a fucking jig when your top candidate wipes everyone off the map.

I need to buy you a beer, duff. Twice you've made me laugh at myself the last couple of days.

Then I'll punch you in the spleen.

Here's my thing about the double baker's dozen of candidates: Bernie, Elizabeth and Joe have a story that adds up in terms of a career that culminates in "I'm ready to be Prez." I don't buy it with these other guys. I said it many months ago: I'm cool putting Mayor Pete up against vp Homophobe. Or Kamala. Or Beto. Even Cory.

But at the top of the ticket, I think EW is starting to pull away with a message that resonates in the tough states (PA, MI, WI, FL, etc) and tugs at the white suburban "equality as long as it doesn't fuck with my shit" voters. I think Bernie has proven that a populist message works there, I think EW picks up on that and brings it home.

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:42 pm Here's my thing about the double baker's dozen of candidates: Bernie, Elizabeth and Joe have a story that adds up in terms of a career that culminates in "I'm ready to be Prez." I don't buy it with these other guys. I said it many months ago: I'm cool putting Mayor Pete up against vp Homophobe. Or Kamala. Or Beto. Even Cory.

But at the top of the ticket, I think EW is starting to pull away with a message that resonates in the tough states (PA, MI, WI, FL, etc) and tugs at the white suburban "equality as long as it doesn't fuck with my shit" voters. I think Bernie has proven that a populist message works there, I think EW picks up on that and brings it home.

I like EW, I just have a longer track record with supporting Bernie. I interned for him back when he was mayor of Burlington in the late 80s. I'd happily vote for either of them. Really like Pete as well, but he's way to wet behind the ears. He'll have some good support early on, but maybe, maybe make it to one the big blocks of primaries.

While Grandpa Joe will make things better than Trump, I'd really like to have someone more progressive in the oval office. While it might not bring quick change it'll hopefully help ignite the younger generation to get involved, get some more progressive candidates in local and state offices, etc. I'm hoping that the splitting of the progressive vote between Bernie and EW don't push GJ up on a pedestal.

I'm still VERY dubious about Pete's actual policy ideas. This is going to sound weird, but I don't like that so many of my former DLC/New Democrat colleagues seem to like him so much. I think he's extremely likable and I've said this before: Having him as the VEEP candidate would be delicious for the optics of him squaring off with Pence in a debate (and he's incredible as a campaigner... and having a gay VEEP would be amazing.)

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:42 pm Here's my thing about the double baker's dozen of candidates: Bernie, Elizabeth and Joe have a story that adds up in terms of a career that culminates in "I'm ready to be Prez." I don't buy it with these other guys. I said it many months ago: I'm cool putting Mayor Pete up against vp Homophobe. Or Kamala. Or Beto. Even Cory.

But at the top of the ticket, I think EW is starting to pull away with a message that resonates in the tough states (PA, MI, WI, FL, etc) and tugs at the white suburban "equality as long as it doesn't fuck with my shit" voters. I think Bernie has proven that a populist message works there, I think EW picks up on that and brings it home.

I agree with the bolded part and the funny thing about what you’re saying is that Warren only got involved in politics about 10 years ago, when she was already well into her 50s. Many of the candidates that you and I agree are on the lower tier have had national political ambitions for much longer. But what sets Warren apart from them is her willingness to actually lead on important economic issues, rather than poll-testing everything in an attempt to assuage donors and a largely mythical bloc of centrist voters.

Pete just seems like Dem GW without the dad. Aww shucks blank slate.

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:34 am I'm still VERY dubious about Pete's actual policy ideas. This is going to sound weird, but I don't like that so many of my former DLC/New Democrat colleagues seem to like him so much. I think he's extremely likable and I've said this before: Having him as the VEEP candidate would be delicious for the optics of him squaring off with Pence in a debate (and he's incredible as a campaigner... and having a gay VEEP would be amazing.)

Not sure Pete is a good choice for VEEP. I would rather see him in a cabinet position. Not sure which one, but I think it would suit him better. I think there would be a lot of Pete/Quayle bad comparisons no matter how incorrect those would be.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:43 am Pete just seems like Dem GW without the dad. Aww shucks blank slate.

Pete seems like he's only a Dem due to his sexual orientation. Like if you just made a generic version of him without that one part (male of his age, mayor of a city of 100,000, then generically listed his education, jobs, and policy positions), you'd expect him to be a Republican.

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:37 am

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:42 pm Here's my thing about the double baker's dozen of candidates: Bernie, Elizabeth and Joe have a story that adds up in terms of a career that culminates in "I'm ready to be Prez." I don't buy it with these other guys. I said it many months ago: I'm cool putting Mayor Pete up against vp Homophobe. Or Kamala. Or Beto. Even Cory.

But at the top of the ticket, I think EW is starting to pull away with a message that resonates in the tough states (PA, MI, WI, FL, etc) and tugs at the white suburban "equality as long as it doesn't fuck with my shit" voters. I think Bernie has proven that a populist message works there, I think EW picks up on that and brings it home.

I agree with the bolded part and the funny thing about what you’re saying is that Warren only got involved in politics about 10 years ago, when she was already well into her 50s. Many of the candidates that you and I agree are on the lower tier have had national political ambitions for much longer. But what sets Warren apart from them is her willingness to actually lead on important economic issues, rather than poll-testing everything in an attempt to assuage donors and a largely mythical bloc of centrist voters.

Right. My point about EW is that she's got a great career/lifelong story to tell. If you watch her stump speech, it's VERY compelling. And the fact that she started off as a NE Republican and landed where she is now is pretty interesting/telling. Bernie has a great story and is awesome on the trail. Uncle Joe, whatever you think of his politics, has been serving for his perception of the greater good for around 50 years.

I find the main difference is that Warren has some room for the private sector in her ideology, for example Accountable Capitalism or a two tiered health system. Bernie is 100% socialist with no room for the private sector. That doesn't play well and in the coming months, Warren will surpass him.

This is an astute point:

I’ll be thrilled if the Democratic establishment casts its lot with Warren instead of Biden or Harris. But I fear that Biden’s support will prove to be persistent. With the notable exception of 2008, Democratic primary voters have largely tended to “play it safe” with an old hand. And Biden will fall back on his association with Obama, who is by far the most popular figure with the primary electorate. Short of a total Biden meltdown, or Obama endorsing someone else, he’ll be hard to beat.

I love Warren's ideas, but whenever I hear her talk, I am completely uninterested in anything she has to say. I just don't see her getting enough voters motivated enough to support her - outside of strong liberals who were already going to vote Democratic.

Plus, most of Warren's ideas are legislative. I think she'd make a great Senator.

I mean, I would take Warren over either of the old white guys, but I would much rather see Kamala Harris get the nomination.

Hoping the nickname "Status Quo Joe" sticks. He's fucking useless as anything other than "palatable Trump."

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:12 am Hoping the nickname "Status Quo Joe" sticks. He's fucking useless as anything other than "palatable Trump."

C'mon, now. I'm not a Biden guy, but it's really unfair to say he's Trump-light or something. For all his faults, he'd be one hell of an improvement on Trump. There are over twenty declared candidates that are one hell of an improvement over Trump. Let's not eat our young if the Dems don't pick our exact favorite from among them. I'd vote for my dog over Trump.

I think Biden is as close to being Republican while still getting called a Democrat as one can be.

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:18 am I think Biden is as close to being Republican while still getting called a Democrat as one can be.

I know he isn't running for the nomination, but you have heard of Joe Manchin, right?

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:20 am

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:18 am I think Biden is as close to being Republican while still getting called a Democrat as one can be.

I know he isn't running for the nomination, but you have heard of Joe Manchin, right?

That's a good solid point, but sure I was talking about the people running. And I think Manchin is going the other way simply for his seat. Biden has been this way forever.

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:20 am

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:18 am I think Biden is as close to being Republican while still getting called a Democrat as one can be.

I know he isn't running for the nomination, but you have heard of Joe Manchin, right?

Yes. If everything goes *great* in the 2020 elections, he will be the deciding vote in the Senate from 2021-23.

I'd vote for living dog shit over Donald Trump.

I'll be voting my heart in the primary and brain in the general. If that's Joe, so be it.

But as the above tweet shows, he's the living dog shit I'd have to vote for.

Some of you guys are left wing wackjobs. There's nothing wrong with being rich. The (theoretical) chance to get rich is what the country is premised upon. He acknowledges that wealth disparity is too large but the concept that hard work and good decision making leads to greater wealth is something everyone should be able to get behind. In the absence of that opportunity I sit on a porch getting hammered off my government wage. Don't be an addict, don't have kids without a husband and then stay married, finish school, go to work everyday and get there on time goes a very long way towards wealth. Not a partisan opinion, as data will back this I'm quite sure. But that's a republican view so it must be wrong.

You don't need to attack Biden on his defense of the rich when, on the day before Juneteenth and while people going into Trump's rally flashing white power signs, he felt the need to defend segrationist Senators.

Bernie is back on his shit. Fuck this guy. He's worse than Trump with all his bellyaching about "collusion".

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:19 pm Some of you guys are left wing wackjobs. There's nothing wrong with being rich. The (theoretical) chance to get rich is what the country is premised upon. He acknowledges that wealth disparity is too large but the concept that hard work and good decision making leads to greater wealth is something everyone should be able to get behind. In the absence of that opportunity I sit on a porch getting hammered off my government wage. Don't be an addict, don't have kids without a husband and then stay married, finish school, go to work everyday and get there on time goes a very long way towards wealth. Not a partisan opinion, as data will back this I'm quite sure. But that's a republican view so it must be wrong.

Get the fuck out of here.

I'm nothing more than a replaceable nobody in a machine of imperialism that props up the Military Industrial Complex. Sure, in concept it seems like "work harder = love better," but in actual practice it's a flaming pile of monkey shit. Explain Trump prior to being president. His family plotted, schemed, and cheated their way to the top.

Guess I made bad decisions during the course of my life to get here, huh? I get adequate health care, some perks from the VA, and my life leveraged as political capital (along with tens of thousands of others) when it's politically convenient for paid-for politicians to give a shit about me.

In a nation of 320 million with a 20 Trillion dollar GDP there is exactly zero reason for children to be hungry, people needing Go Fund Me for their Health Care, workers being labeled "independent contractors" so that billion dollar valuation companies don't have to pay them well, free education, and a plethora of other things that we "just don't have the money for" happening. All the meanwhile were still in Afghanistan and Iraq (amongst several other countries) and seem to having money for that shit.

Remember when the list of billionaires was like the Walton Family, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and that one dude from Mexico who controlled all the cable companies? Now it's a ton of fucking people. And collectively they control more wealth than nations and I'm supposed to believe had I made better decisions I could have been one of them too.

Get the fuck out of here.