The Swamp

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:28 am 6 points is one of the worst leads to have late in a game. You for real have a better chance statistically at winning if you are up 3.

Really? I trust you but that seems bizarre. I thought with both both offenses struggling, it would be more likely there would be field goals late in the game. Of course a lot of bizarre things happened, but Carolina had a chance to tie with just a field goal at the end.

Either a statistical outlier or a serious indictment of NFL coaches.

(Although maybe I’m not accounting for the fact that you lose if you’re up 6 and most likely get tied up 3. Never mind.)

It's basically because overtime is a coin flip.

So up 3 you can stop them from hitting a field goal and win, give up a TD and lose, or go to overtime and it's 50/50.

But when you are up 6, the other team will go for it on 4th downs in your territory and that usually swings the percentages. I mean it's game specific so you may be right in this case but I hate when teams put themselves up 6. The Giants doing that in week 1 a few years back in Coughlin's last year (I think) is a prime example.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:42 am (Although maybe I’m not accounting for the fact that you lose if you’re up 6 and most likely get tied up 3. Never mind.)

Yep. OT being a coinflip has a lot of impact on end-game percentages. Same with the "going for 2 down 8" thing from a month ago.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:05 pm

rass wrote: ↑Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:27 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:26 pm As a Pats fan I expect no sympathy and literally any criticism I have for things that go against my team is whining, but maaaannnnn the majority of those penalties were absolute horseshit.

Like 1/3 of them were false starts?

Yeah like half of them weren't subjective.

The defensive holding call was total BS (though it also stopped the clock), the hold at the goal line was weak, and so was the PI against Eli Rogers.

But they also got away with a ton of DB holds outside of those plays. Gilmore basically horsecollared AB down the sideline.

If they were allowing Gilmore to hold, that could better explain the no call for Gronk. Brady also said a ref told him that they were instructed to call holding tighter. Officiating simply sucks with no consistency. Matt Chatham is a good Patriots follow (yes, a strong Patriots bias, but also a strong the league is stupid bias which is entertaining).

Yeah, that DB shouldn't have pushed the giant TE that was trying to box him out. You can't just run into DBs and wall them off and expect to get calls.

Why would a player's size have anything to do with illegal contact? We can argue who initiates the contact, but are you saying it's okay to do that to Gronk, but not Edelman?

Agree. DB is entitled to its space I think. Pass catcher needs to go around or fight through but can't look for a flag when they initiate contact. Not sure it's good technique to put two hands on the receiver cause you might get a flag but right no call.

Gronk slowed down when nearing the goal line looking to initiate contact. To my untrained eye, it looks as if they both contact each other at the same time. Sure, two hands to the chest isn't great defense, but forearm to the neck is not a great way to attempt to make a catch.

And from the angle of that video, the catch was never going to be made.

EdRomero wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am Why would a player's size have anything to do with illegal contact? We can argue who initiates the contact, but are you saying it's okay to do that to Gronk, but not Edelman?

I think if Edelman ran into a DB there would be a different result. A player's size shouldn't have anything to do with it theoretically but 1. Edelman isn't going to do that because 2. it won't work and he'll probably fall down.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:37 am Agree. DB is entitled to its space I think. Pass catcher needs to go around or fight through but can't look for a flag when they initiate contact. Not sure it's good technique to put two hands on the receiver cause you might get a flag but right no call.

It's definitely not and it opens you up to getting flagged but I think they throw wayyyyyy too many flags on DBs these days.

duff wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:45 am Gronk slowed down when nearing the goal line looking to initiate contact. To my untrained eye, it looks as if they both contact each other at the same time. Sure, two hands to the chest isn't great defense, but forearm to the neck is not a great way to attempt to make a catch.

And from the angle of that video, the catch was never going to be made.

100%!

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:59 am

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:37 am Agree. DB is entitled to its space I think. Pass catcher needs to go around or fight through but can't look for a flag when they initiate contact. Not sure it's good technique to put two hands on the receiver cause you might get a flag but right no call.

It's definitely not and it opens you up to getting flagged but I think they throw wayyyyyy too many flags on DBs these days.

Fair enough and I definitely agree with that. I could argue that the throw was headed to where Gronk should have been if he kept moving at the same speed and not slowed down by the contact, but him looking back and starting to position himself hurt the cause.