NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:48 pm

EnochRoot wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:43 pm
That chorus of clicks you may have just heard was the sound of America changing the channel.
Yep. Was just about to say that I have to find something to do now for the next few hours.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:49 pm

L-Jam3 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:38 pm
Gunpowder wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:36 am
degenerasian wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:25 pm
L-Jam3 wrote:
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Goddammitt, take the time out BEFORE the two-minute warning, Jason. It saves you at least 5 seconds.
But then that opens the door for a 3rd down pass against the 2 minute warning.
Right - you should never call a timeout right before the 2 minute warning.
You do if you’re losing and on defense, trying to conserve clock.

No, you do not. The number one goal here before conserving clock is "stopping the other team", and you've just made that significantly harder now in order to save 5 seconds.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by A_B » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:59 pm

EdRomero wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:36 pm
A_B wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:35 pm
This is a joyless game.
I'm enjoying it
Oh I’m sure!
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by EdRomero » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:24 pm

I don't know where to the last hour went. 2 hours

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:32 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:49 pm
L-Jam3 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:38 pm
Gunpowder wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:36 am
degenerasian wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:25 pm
L-Jam3 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:11 pm
Goddammitt, take the time out BEFORE the two-minute warning, Jason. It saves you at least 5 seconds.
But then that opens the door for a 3rd down pass against the 2 minute warning.
Right - you should never call a timeout right before the 2 minute warning.
You do if you’re losing and on defense, trying to conserve clock.

No, you do not. The number one goal here before conserving clock is "stopping the other team", and you've just made that significantly harder now in order to save 5 seconds.
I have no idea how a significant tactical advantage because of the scenario is < 10 seconds when you consider time saved both before and after the 2-minute warning.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by HaulCitgo » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:14 pm

Anybody know why game clock continued after the develin penalty on punt at around 6:00 fourth quarter. If that works you could continue with false start penalities indefinitely to end the game.

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by A_B » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:15 pm

Under five minutes a lot of the clock rules change.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by EdRomero » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:35 pm

I just vomitted. A lot

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:43 pm

That underthrow by Brees was awful (or very good if we're complimenting the underthrow)
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by sancarlos » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:48 pm

Well, this game has been surprising so far.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by L-Jam3 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:04 pm

He doesn’t think it’s a damn show! He thinks it’s a damn fight!
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Johnnie » Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:40 pm

I had to go do something and just turned the game on. Like, wtf? I thought the Saints were the favorites.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by mister d » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:17 pm

EdRomero wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:35 pm
I just vomitted. A lot
Mister D likes this.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Johnnie » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:19 pm

mister d wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:17 pm
EdRomero wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:35 pm
I just vomitted. A lot
Mister D likes this.
The RimWorld thread is that way. ---->
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by L-Jam3 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:41 pm

Gotta fucking catch that, Alshon.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by sancarlos » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:45 pm

Pruitt wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:45 am
Joe K wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:34 am
Pruitt wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:10 pm
Betting wise, I took the Saints and the underdogs in the other 3 games.
Assuming these are ATS picks, that sounds like a good bet to me. The Saints are the only favorite that I expect to win comfortably. I really think the Cowboys will upset
the Rams and that the two AFC favorites could have tough games.
Yeah, ATS.

But I've got to say, no result would surprise me this weekend.
Oferfour? Ouch.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Pruitt » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:28 pm

Will Lutz owes me money.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:41 pm

The Eagles should really get some shit for declining the holding call with 12 minutes to go in the second* that led to the Saints fake punt. Backing up the Saints to 3rd and 10+ at the NO 20 is far more desirable than 4th and a foot given the situation.

In a tie game, maybe the Saints punt. But the odds of a conversion of that length are extremely high. Add in the fact the game was 14-0 at that point and you have a coach who is aggressive (for NFL standards) across the field and you have to accept that penalty every single time.

ETA: I have a tweet along these lines in real time so I'm not being reactionary because the Eagles lost. It was a bad decision if they won. And it's a bad decision because they lost.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by sancarlos » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:54 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:41 pm
The Eagles should really get some shit for declining the holding call with 12 minutes to go in the second* that led to the Saints fake punt. Backing up the Saints to 3rd and 10+ at the NO 20 is far more desirable than 4th and a foot given the situation.

In a tie game, maybe the Saints punt. But the odds of a conversion of that length are extremely high. Add in the fact the game was 14-0 at that point and you have a coach who is aggressive (for NFL standards) across the field and you have to accept that penalty every single time.

ETA: I have a tweet along these lines in real time so I'm not being reactionary because the Eagles lost. It was a bad decision if they won. And it's a bad decision because they lost.
I agree with you. But, if they accepted the penalty, and Brees then completed a 20 yard pass on 3rd and 10+ to keep the drive going, Pederson would have been crucified.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by A_B » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:56 pm

If my aunt had balls...
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 pm

sancarlos wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:54 pm
Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:41 pm
The Eagles should really get some shit for declining the holding call with 12 minutes to go in the second* that led to the Saints fake punt. Backing up the Saints to 3rd and 10+ at the NO 20 is far more desirable than 4th and a foot given the situation.

In a tie game, maybe the Saints punt. But the odds of a conversion of that length are extremely high. Add in the fact the game was 14-0 at that point and you have a coach who is aggressive (for NFL standards) across the field and you have to accept that penalty every single time.

ETA: I have a tweet along these lines in real time so I'm not being reactionary because the Eagles lost. It was a bad decision if they won. And it's a bad decision because they lost.
I agree with you. But, if they accepted the penalty, and Brees then completed a 20 yard pass on 3rd and 10+ to keep the drive going, Pederson would have been crucified.
if Brees completed a 20-yard pass *and* they scored a TD on the drive

I realize the discussion is largely outcome based, but the odds of converting 4th and a foot >>>> Brees completing a 20-yard pass. It's one of the situations where conservative football coaches have warped our sense of logic and understanding. In any other context you offered someone one chance to get one unit or two chances to get 31 units they are choosing the one chance for one unit. But since this is the NFL people think it's a wild decision to go for it via fake punt or run when you just need a foot because you're at your own 30 and trailing 14-0.

This graphic is 4 years old, so I would like to see what it is updated given the offensive trends in football. But there's a 40% difference in general conversion rates on 4th and 1 (longer than what the Saints faced) and 3rd and 11.

Image
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by mister d » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:58 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 pm
It's one of the situations where conservative football coaches have warped our sense of logic and understanding.
Isn't the math here "how often would Brees convert 3rd and long" versus "how often would the Saints for it on 4th and short * expected conversion rate"? The decision isn't mathematically sound but probably strategically sound.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Ryan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:07 am

The only exciting thing that happened this weekend was the Rams-Cowboys uniform matchup under the lights. That's the best the NFL has looked since the Patriots and Titans went AFL throwbacks in the snow.

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by EdRomero » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:16 am

You weren't excited by the Patriots' running game with Gronk blocking all day?

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by A_B » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:19 am

A_B wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:35 pm
This is a joyless game.
To circle back to this, I kind of meant that the Patriots don't really seem to take joy in winning. It's just machine-like. Do the job. Move on.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:26 am

mister d wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:58 am
Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 pm
It's one of the situations where conservative football coaches have warped our sense of logic and understanding.
Isn't the math here "how often would Brees convert 3rd and long" versus "how often would the Saints for it on 4th and short * expected conversion rate"? The decision isn't mathematically sound but probably strategically sound.
yes, that plays a significant role and even strengthens my thinking that the Eagles should have accepted the penalty because I believe "how often would the Saints go for it on 4th and short" is at or near the top compared to the rest of the NFL.

You can easily argue "how often would Brees convert 3rd and long" is up there too. As it should be. But given that the Saints are getting desperate and your defense (at the time) is playing well, I think there's a very good case to be made for pushing them back.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by mister d » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:33 am

So this is just an NFL version of "intentionally walk the shittier hitter to set up the double play because that's easily to explain afterwards"?
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Ryan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:42 am

EdRomero wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:16 am
You weren't excited by the Patriots' running game with Gronk blocking all day?
Not as much as nice uniforms, no.

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:48 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:32 pm
Gunpowder wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:49 pm
L-Jam3 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:38 pm
Gunpowder wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:36 am
degenerasian wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:25 pm
L-Jam3 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:11 pm
Goddammitt, take the time out BEFORE the two-minute warning, Jason. It saves you at least 5 seconds.
But then that opens the door for a 3rd down pass against the 2 minute warning.
Right - you should never call a timeout right before the 2 minute warning.
You do if you’re losing and on defense, trying to conserve clock.

No, you do not. The number one goal here before conserving clock is "stopping the other team", and you've just made that significantly harder now in order to save 5 seconds.
I have no idea how a significant tactical advantage because of the scenario is < 10 seconds when you consider time saved both before and after the 2-minute warning.
It's 5 seconds. If a play goes off at 2:05 and takes 7 seconds, the clock stops at 1:58, not at 2:00.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Joe K » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:51 am

mister d wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:33 am
So this is just an NFL version of "intentionally walk the shittier hitter to set up the double play because that's easily to explain afterwards"?
Perhaps. NFL conventional wisdom is so overwhelming skewed against going for it on 4th down that even one of the better coaches in Pederson got it wrong. Hell, the FOX announcers were saying the Saints should “take the points” on their 4th and goal play when down 14-0. They have one of the best QBs and best offenses ever — of course they should go for it there! Payton’s two decisions to go on 4th down were both clearly correct but NFL coaches are so risk averse that I’d bet hardly anyone else would’ve gotten both those decisions right.

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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:52 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:41 pm
The Eagles should really get some shit for declining the holding call with 12 minutes to go in the second* that led to the Saints fake punt. Backing up the Saints to 3rd and 10+ at the NO 20 is far more desirable than 4th and a foot given the situation.

In a tie game, maybe the Saints punt. But the odds of a conversion of that length are extremely high. Add in the fact the game was 14-0 at that point and you have a coach who is aggressive (for NFL standards) across the field and you have to accept that penalty every single time.

ETA: I have a tweet along these lines in real time so I'm not being reactionary because the Eagles lost. It was a bad decision if they won. And it's a bad decision because they lost.


Tomlin caught shit for taking the penalty this season, because fans will complain about anything. I agreed with taking the penalty in that case, though in this one I'm not sure in this case how apt I'd be to give Drew Brees a 3rd and 10 shot as compared to Blake Bortles.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:16 am

Gunpowder wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:48 am

It's 5 seconds. If a play goes off at 2:05 and takes 7 seconds, the clock stops at 1:58, not at 2:00.
Right. I'm talking about the time spent after the 2 min warning on the next play to call timeout in addition to the time you're letting tick off ahead of the 2 min warning to let it get to that point.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:38 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:16 am
Gunpowder wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:48 am

It's 5 seconds. If a play goes off at 2:05 and takes 7 seconds, the clock stops at 1:58, not at 2:00.
Right. I'm talking about the time spent after the 2 min warning on the next play to call timeout in addition to the time you're letting tick off ahead of the 2 min warning to let it get to that point.

Call a timeout at 2:05. Next play takes it to the 2 minute warning most likely - I guess you could get lucky and stop their play by 2:01 or something. Let's assume you don't and the play takes 10 seconds. Clock is at 1:55 if you stop them in a situation where they can now throw the ball with impunity.

Let the clock run to 2:00, then a 10 second play and I'll give you a second to make the time-consuming timeout signal. In reality I think you tell the ref before the play that you intend to call timeout after the tackle, which you probably make because the other team is strongly incentivized to run the ball. So there's 1:49 now.

I don't follow where the extra time is coming from.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by L-Jam3 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:40 am

After looking at the official log book, I realized I must've thought there was more time after the second down. 1st Down was a Todd Gurley run at 2:11, immediate Dallas Time Out. 2nd down was CJ Anderson run at 2:08. Say that takes three seconds, then yes, there's no sense taking the time out after 2D.

If 2nd down was at 2:11, then I will still say take the time out after the run. 2:08 is too long to take an 8-second pass play.

Of course, in that instance, they could play-action and surprise the fuck out of the defense....
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:43 am

I would certainly take the timeout at 2:11. Not sure where my line would be drawn...at 2:05 I'd let it run. At 2:08? I'd have numbers people that tell me the expected time that the other team uses per passing play.


https://thebiglead.com/2018/11/30/sean- ... e-warning/

2:03 is definitely too close. Payton called his first timeout at 2:08 though and had plenty of time to spare.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:09 pm

I'm agreeing with you GPJ

Was saying that letting the clock run from 2:07 to 2 and then calling timeout at 1:57 after third down is far preferable to calling timeout at 2:07 and potentially getting the ball back at 2 because of the tactical advantage
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Brontoburglar » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:12 pm

I just realized my < may be the issue here. I was using that as "greater than" in terms of more advantageous and not in terms of comparing two units of time
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Gunpowder » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:12 pm
I just realized my < may be the issue here. I was using that as "greater than" in terms of more advantageous and not in terms of comparing two units of time
Ahhh yeah I took it the opposite way.
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Re: NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Post by Johnnie » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:03 pm

This is awesome. This is the type of football strategy and breakdown I like to see.

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