The Swamp

No it's the ball

brian wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:48 am Isn't the obvious answer to all these home runs that almost no one seems to point out is that players these days, especially the younger ones, just benefit from modern nutrition and weight training more than players even 10 or 20 years ago?

It's a lot easier for players to be lean, but strong and generate the bat speed necessary regardless of their position. Hitting home runs is essentially just a physics problem and we've figured out the solution.

Yes, but aren't strikeouts way up, too? (I'm one of those cool guys who quote stats without having looked them up for verification.) This is the three true outcome era of baseball. Ball or not, there certainly is the fact that hitters nowadays swing from their heels for the fences.

ETA: OK, I looked it up and yes, not only is MLB on pace for a new all-time record of home runs, also on pace for a new all time record for strikeouts (previous all time records were set in... 2018).

What TurdRyan said. Players are focusing on launch angle and all that, but there’s pretty clear evidence this year’s ball is going further, esp when you factor in AAA.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:06 am What TurdRyan said. Players are focusing on launch angle and all that, but there’s pretty clear evidence this year’s ball is going further, esp when you factor in AAA.

Yeah, I guess I didn't mean to dismiss that entirely, but it's not ALL the ball.

Its a lot the ball. HR per 100 PAs ...

2010: 2.5
2011: 2.5
2012: 2.7
2013: 2.5
2014: 2.3
2015: 2.7
2016: 3.0
2017: 3.3
2018: 3.0
2019: 3.6

I think it's bullpens too. Starters are not going long and most bullpens suck. The average bullpen ERA is 4.5, in both leagues. That's also a record high, by almost 0.4.

using the numbers above,

2017 had a 3.3 HR/100 AB, bullpen ERA was 4.15,
2017 had a 3.3 HR/100 AB, bullpen ERA was 4.08
2019 has a 3.6 HR/100 AB bullpen ERA is 4.49

Once you accept the fact that launch angles and the shift have helped hitters to hit the ball into the air more often, you accept the HR rate increase.

Then you have this year. Listen to the pitchers.

It's the ball.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:57 am I think it's bullpens too. Starters are not going long and most bullpens suck. The average bullpen ERA is 4.5, in both leagues. That's also a record high, by almost 0.4.

using the numbers above,

2017 had a 3.3 HR/100 AB, bullpen ERA was 4.15,
2017 had a 3.3 HR/100 AB, bullpen ERA was 4.08
2019 has a 3.6 HR/100 AB bullpen ERA is 4.49

But the total average ERA is also 4.5. So the bullpens are no worse than the starters.

And HRs increase ERA. Its A causing B.

Wonder how the average velocity gap between SP and RPs has changed recently. Common sense says less home runs off relievers because they're fresh and the timing wouldn't be there, but if they're all throwing 97 and some can't locate...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... 2019-12-31

Average isn't as drastic as you'd think but thats probably not the best metric given openers and longer relievers skewing each sample a little.

This Reds team never got to good, but they were fun at times. And genuinely likeable. This is the team celebrating with Suarez last night when he hit his 48th HR and set a new record for HRs by a Venezuelan player:

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:41 am This Reds team never got to good, but they were fun at times. And genuinely likeable. This is the team celebrating with Suarez last night when he hit his 48th HR and set a new record for HRs by a Venezuelan player:

That's very cool. I hope he keeps it up and breaks George Foster's team record for home runs.

I'm curious how many of these guys that have exploded in the last couple years were ones who could recognize but not really hit good breaking stuff coming up.

Ahhh, that’s what happens when a Yankees team feels too likable.

Slapping his wife in front of an MLB official was probably not optimal, from an "avoid suspension" point of view, but, on a better note, perhaps this will ensure that he gets counseling (and her as needed) and stops this from becoming a worse problem.

Someone should make a mentor joke. On a lighter note ...

wouldn't a starting pitching ERA stat get skewed by more teams using openers in 2019 anyway?

Downward? I would assume so.

yeah. SP ERA down and bullpen ERA up because the person viewed as the traditional "starter" is officially a reliever in those situations

I'm a Bochy fan, but this was funny.

Ray Ratto in Deadspin wrote:if Bochy wins 11 of his last 10 games, he’ll finish his career at .500, which is an even greater achievement than 2,000, or even 2,044.

The 2018-19 Mets are on the verge of having a starting pitcher win back-to-back Cy Young Awards while posting a combined 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 414 innings pitched. They have a 27-36 record in his 63 starts. That's an all-time mind-blowing statistical anomaly.

Joe K wrote: ↑Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:54 pm The 2018-19 Mets are on the verge of having a starting pitcher win back-to-back Cy Young Awards while posting a combined 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 414 innings pitched. They have a 27-36 record in his 63 starts. That's an all-time mind-blowing statistical anomaly.

How very Mets of them!


And, I've always had a soft spot for the Mets.

Joe West is the worst umpire in the world.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:47 pm Joe West is the worst umpire in the world.

At least he makes up for it with his winning personality.

Went to the Mets game tonight and sat behind Isan Diaz’s family and friends and it was a very fun time. Super proud and supportive but also not above “my son hasn’t struck out three times tonight” jokes.

King Felix's last start in Seattle last night...



Its a damn shame the Ownership was never able to get their shit together to put a good team around him. Its awesome that he stayed in Seattle (I'm sure the $200,000,000 that he's made helped), but its terrible that he never played in a playoff game.

Feels like its already forgotten just how great he was at his peak.

It's crazy to me that MLB set a record for total home runs but only one guy got over 50. A rookie! Alonso with 53.

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:15 pm Feels like its already forgotten just how great he was at his peak.

Yeah. Two guys who needed just a few more seasons of above to well-above average play to pretty much assure an eventual HOF bid:

Felix Hernandez and Dustin Pedroia.

Ehhhhhhh ... different levels. Pedroia would essentially need three more seasons as good as his 3rd/4th best seasons to get to Utley level (fWAR) and that might not be enough to get in on merit. Is Mauer in? If not, he's my easy comp. If he's in, maybe Wright? My beautiful boy Sizemore didn't stretch his peak or even functional years long enough, but he was on easy pace through age 26.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:31 pm Ehhhhhhh ... different levels. Pedroia would essentially need three more seasons as good as his 3rd/4th best seasons to get to Utley level (fWAR) and that might not be enough to get in on merit. Is Mauer in? If not, he's my easy comp. If he's in, maybe Wright? My beautiful boy Sizemore didn't stretch his peak or even functional years long enough, but he was on easy pace through age 26.

Mauer's going to get into the HOF.

Bench, Pudge, Pudge, Piazza, Yogi, Campanella, Carter, Dickey, Cochrane. I think Mauer is in that group pretty clearly.

Forgot Gabby Hartnett in that group.

I say Posey is there already too, and I can see the case with Yadi

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:50 pm Bench, Pudge, Pudge, Piazza, Yogi, Campanella, Carter, Dickey, Cochrane. I think Mauer is in that group pretty clearly.

This is the metric I'm looking at.

The issue with those rankings is they treat Mauer as a catcher and not as a guy who only had 50% of his PAs as a catcher and the mental math by some is going to take away too much.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:57 pm The issue with those rankings is they treat Mauer as a catcher and not as a guy who only had 50% of his PAs as a catcher and the mental math by some is going to take away too much.

JAWS is the 7 year peak, and his 7 year peak was behind the plate (btw, looks like he caught 60.3% of his games played)..

Mauer's going to pull some what-if votes because his concussion and related issues after taking a pitch off his mask/dome will resonate with voters, if not the vet committee. Oh and here's where I use a +5 Harold Baines to your mental math.

Without looking, I’m pro-Mauer. I don’t think he’s a guarantee.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:44 pm Without looking, I’m pro-Mauer. I don’t think he’s a guarantee.

He's actually 5th all time in Catcher WAR7.