The Swamp

Powerball is up to $475M now. That's a lotta dough.

We won $7 on the drawing last night.

The Ohio Lottery has a game show called Cash Explosion, and to get into the drawing to appear on the show, you have to win the "Entry" prize on a scratch-off ticket. Well, this guy won that entry prize. I'll find out on June 8 if I'm going to be a contestant. Fingers crossed!

Im feeling the need to join a large pool but im too lazy to organize.

HaulCitgo wrote:Im feeling the need to join a large pool but im too lazy to organize.

I was thinking the same thing, but I can't purchase tickets as the lottery is illegal in Nevada (irony?)

I found that out the last time I was in Vegas, when the jackpot was the largest ever. I LOLed at the irony.

Was with a group of co-workers, and figured we could just drive over the border to buy tickets. Dude at the hotel told me that it wasn't an original thought, and the lines would be hours long.

Also was up in Tahoe in early February, the gent behind the desk advised me to "leave my weed in California, and leave my hookers in Nevada." And not to mix the two.

Nevada is funny.

Yeah, 3 to 4 hour waits to buy lottery tickets at the CA border when the jackpot is this high are not uncommon. When I lived in MI I'd buy $5 worth of tickets for a mega-jackpot, but I'm not waiting in line for 3 hours in 100-degree heat to piss my money away.

It's up to 550 mil now. Well be buying our office tix tomorrow, and I'm probably grabbing a few solo as well.

Swamp lawyers...in the highly unlikely event I win on either ticket, what are my chances of keeping it from the shedevil?

ZMan wrote:It's up to 550 mil now. Well be buying our office tix tomorrow, and I'm probably grabbing a few solo as well.

Swamp lawyers...in the highly unlikely event I win on either ticket, what are my chances of keeping it from the shedevil?

I'm not a lawyer, but I would presume they would be slim. A better question would be if you would be off the hook if you held on to the ticket and redeemed it AFTER the divorce was final if she could come back after you for any of the money.

I was sorta thinking the same, but that will only work on my solo tix. Doubt I could get the rest of the office to wait along with me. Doubtful I'd ever even see any of them again.

When is the drawing? Saturday?

ZMan wrote:It's up to 550 mil now. Well be buying our office tix tomorrow, and I'm probably grabbing a few solo as well.

Swamp lawyers...in the highly unlikely event I win on either ticket, what are my chances of keeping it from the shedevil?

Under Florida law, if you've filed for divorce, it's yours. Not sure about NY.

Yeah, next drawing is Saturday. I'll actually be in Reno this weekend so if the lines aren't ridiculous (I assume they will be though) I might head over to Truckee to pick some up.

I'll pay the stupid tax when it gets this high...

devilfluff wrote:I'll pay the stupid tax when it gets this high...

If you consider game theory, it's only stupid to play PowerBall when the pot is less than $176 million. The odds of winning the PowerBall jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. It's the same thing as considering pot odds when playing poker.

It would probably have to be about double that due to taxes, but I get your point.

I'll pay the stupid tax even if it's $150 mil. Whatever. I can handle decreasing my net worth by a few bucks.

Sabo wrote:

devilfluff wrote:I'll pay the stupid tax when it gets this high...

If you consider game theory, it's only stupid to play PowerBall when the pot is less than $176 million. The odds of winning the PowerBall jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. It's the same thing as considering pot odds when playing poker.

Except that in poker, it's very unlikely that you're going to split the pot.

Unless I don't understand the mechanics of how they determine the jackpot, your odds probably don't ever change at all. It's just that people forget to consider that there are likely to be multiple winners.

Shirley wrote:

Sabo wrote:

devilfluff wrote:I'll pay the stupid tax when it gets this high...

If you consider game theory, it's only stupid to play PowerBall when the pot is less than $176 million. The odds of winning the PowerBall jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. It's the same thing as considering pot odds when playing poker.

Except that in poker, it's very unlikely that you're going to split the pot.

Unless I don't understand the mechanics of how they determine the jackpot, your odds probably don't ever change at all. It's just that people forget to consider that there are likely to be multiple winners.

It's only likely there's going to be multiple winners when it gets to more than $350-400M or higher and even then the odds of multiple winners aren't as high as you'd probably think (I had seen this last time, I'm going to try to look it up).

But your overall point is valid -- it's a consideration you have to make if you're going to apply a pot odds calculation on a lottery drawing.

To put this chart into context, I think I saw that there will be roughly 200M tickets in play for Saturday's drawing.

I think the big ones are the worst to win, because everyone knows you won. I want to win when it is the maximum amount just under the threshold where they announce winners. Keep your life the same for a couple weeks until you can slowly stop coming to work and quit. Slowly change shit at home so as not to tip off the neighbors. I don't think I'd change my lifestyle all that much. Pay off the house, quit my job and find a job I love but can't afford to take. Maybe open up a nice animal shelter or work for some political cause I believe in or something like that.

The Sybian wrote:I think the big ones are the worst to win, because everyone knows you won. I want to win when it is the maximum amount just under the threshold where they announce winners. Keep your life the same for a couple weeks until you can slowly stop coming to work and quit. Slowly change shit at home so as not to tip off the neighbors. I don't think I'd change my lifestyle all that much. Pay off the house, quit my job and find a job I love but can't afford to take. Maybe open up a nice animal shelter or work for some political cause I believe in or something like that.

Depending on the state you live in, it may be a matter of public record no matter how much money you won. I don't think there's a threshold to meet in other words. That said, there's very little media interest if you win say....$40M or so, so it's a lot easier to fly under the radar.

Sabo wrote:

devilfluff wrote:I'll pay the stupid tax when it gets this high...

If you consider game theory, it's only stupid to play PowerBall when the pot is less than $176 million. The odds of winning the PowerBall jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. It's the same thing as considering pot odds when playing poker.

I don't buy that. That reasoning only works if you assume a dollar has the same marginal value no matter your wealth.

Losing a dollar, or five, in a lottery has no real cost, because it wouldn't affect my life at all.

But winning a lottery would affect my life. A lot.

So it'd be worth the money. If I lived in a state where it's an option.

The "solution" we came up with at work, is that I didn't go in on the tickets. Moms went in for 2 shares.

Ovi 8 hoping to win.
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I'm in a pool at work because I believe it is foolish to say no to breath mints and lottery pools.

I work for a medium sized suburban police department. The pool includes about 3/4 of the staff. This city is so screwed if we win...

brian wrote:

To put this chart into context, I think I saw that there will be roughly 200M tickets in play for Saturday's drawing.

Pretty sure this chart changed on the fly between this morning and right now.

OK bitches...annuity or cash option?

I see the advantage for both. The tax savings alone in the annuity on that large of a payout might be worth it (immediate plus capital gains). Yes, it is giving the state interest free loans.

But I also may think I could invest it better to make it grow more than than the tax savings would help. Yes, you insure yourself against the state somehow being unable to make that payment for whatever reason in the future.

I think in the end I might take the annuity. 34 million a year for 30 years isn't a bad way to go and I think would help insulate against market conditions. Maybe I'm just too risk averse.

Is there anyway the states / org that runs powerball can go bankrupt and you'd lose any unpaid winnings? Either way, I'd take it all upfront.

mister d wrote:Is there anyway the states / org that runs powerball can go bankrupt and you'd lose any unpaid winnings? Either way, I'd take it all upfront.

I've always wondered this myself. Even a state declaring bankruptcy wouldn't affect the annuity payments but I've always wondered what could (in theory, nothing since the money is supposed to be invested in some kind of conservative investment portfolio which is why you only get an extra 40 percent more than the lump sum even after 26 years.

A_B wrote:OK bitches...annuity or cash option?

I see the advantage for both. The tax savings alone in the annuity on that large of a payout might be worth it (immediate plus capital gains). Yes, it is giving the state interest free loans.

But I also may think I could invest it better to make it grow more than than the tax savings would help. Yes, you insure yourself against the state somehow being unable to make that payment for whatever reason in the future.

I think in the end I might take the annuity. 34 million a year for 30 years isn't a bad way to go and I think would help insulate against market conditions. Maybe I'm just too risk averse.

The biggest argument for the lump sum would be future tax obligations. I think regardless of which party wins the presidency you can expect taxes on someone who has half a billion to go up in the future. If not in the next couple of years, almost certainly in 5-10 years and beyond. There's not really a way (regardless of what Trump, Cruz, Rubio et al seem to think) to balance the federal budget AND lower taxes on the super rich.

Lump sum doesn't even put you in the top 400 wealthiest americans! Who knew!

Cash.

Counterparty risk. No guarantee these tinhorn governments (or the financial institution they pay for the annuity) will be around in the future.

A_B wrote:Lump sum doesn't even put you in the top 400 wealthiest americans! Who knew!

Well then screw it.

howard wrote:Cash.

Counterparty risk. No guarantee these tinhorn governments (or the financial institution they pay for the annuity) will be around in the future.

Annuity, because even with 34 million per year if everything folds in 5 years you're still going to have generational money.

Not against your thought, my main argument here is what is the everyday person going to do with 1200MM that they can't accomplish with 100MM, other than sit on it for distribution to estate?

I'm really not sure the common person can fathom this amount of money. I'd almost rather win the lottery at a 90MM jackpot than this. I feel like this kind of win is certain to ruin your life.

I dunno. I think people aren't gonna be allowed on my private island, bitches!

(But we will all go to Vietnam..think how awesome to have a bunch of white dudes on Degen's side!)

Take the cash. I am with those that would rather invest the cash themselves.

When I win the Powerball, we are paying off the house and car. Keep working for the next year or two. Invest the majority of the money. Pay off our siblings houses. Then after two or three years, quit working and start becoming more involved in causes truer to our hearts. Probably would involve education, assisting the elderly, and improving impoverished areas in the community.

Or we just blow it all on hookers and cocaine!

If I won something like $3-5M I'd keep working for about three or four years, not touch the principal at all for about 7 or 8 years, but if I win anywhere near a billion I'm tell work to fuck off and never seeing any of those people again. I'd be in the wind.

There used to be a show about people who ruined their lives after winning the lottery. We loved that show, especially seeing what Southern fried hicks blew $100 million dollars on, then somehow losing it all. I agree with preferring to win a smaller drawing. When you win a monster drawing, your name is plastered in the news and the world beats down your door. Win $20 million, no press, no hassles. I'd be happy with just enough to pay off the mortgage, let the wife wife risk the investment and ramp up time to start a business or two. Take a sweet vacation for a month, and stock a sick bar. Other than that, I'm good. I don't even feel the need to quit my job. If I won $100 million, I'd devote my work to some cause or another. And buy a Tesla Model S.

duff wrote:
Or we just blow it all on hookers and cocaine!

I thought you said "blow it all"....

I think it's likely most of us here would do fine with either option. But yeah, those people who buy $20 million homes free and clear but then end up unable to pay the utilities and taxes never cease to amaze me.

My plan would be to pay off pretty much everything of my close family, find some good causes to donate to and buy a reasonable vacation home (reasonable still being very fucking well appointed, mind you) where we could have several people visit at a time.

And I'll have a Hellcat Challenger, thanks.

Mark Cuban says take the annuity.