The Swamp

I was looking at the track for this earlier and it's not really a track that actually happens very often. Hurricanes rarely hit the middle of Florida - they generally either turn north or make a hard turn west. The ocean is really warm south, less so north (obviously but I mean right now it's a clear difference) and so I figured this thing is probably going to be a bigger deal than anticipated, because it has a very similar track to Hurricane Andrew. Now, today the strength just keeps getting bumped higher.



I hope this thing turns back out into the ocean but I have a pretty bad feeling about it. I'll be in Jamaica so not worried about myself but if it does turn west, we gon' have some problems.

Andrew was a bit further out east so that probably works in our favor but it too was predicted to hit the middle of Florida but since that almost never happens, instead it went into that Bahamian bathwater and eventually 15 years later caused a shit ton of traffic on 595.

@crankywxguy seems to think that we won't have much real guidance until about 24 hours from now, when it crosses through Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. No matter what, it's putting the damper on my plans to head to Jupiter for the long weekend.

Just no impact on the gulf coast if we can help it for my biznisss

The gulf coast shouldn't be an issue unless things change a ton next week. The other track this reminds me of is Hurricane Floyd, which looked like it was going to end Florida forever and then at the last minute turned north and killed more northerly people.

Maximum winds 69!!!!!! Also, good luck down there.

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:31 am @crankywxguy seems to think that we won't have much real guidance until about 24 hours from now, when it crosses through Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. No matter what, it's putting the damper on my plans to head to Jupiter for the long weekend.

Obviously he's right, I'm just guessing. I typically compare them to historical tracks more than I put stock in the early models.

It's ok. Trump has a plan for this. His finger is on the button.

It has already undergone some significant forecast (cone) shifts north and will likely now miss Hispaniola - which means it won't get chewed up by the terrain there. It was also dealing with a lot of dry air for awhile, but that will soon no longer be the case. Frankly, it has a chance to be a real problem now. Steering will push it due west at some point, as it will be blocked early next week from coming too far north along the coast.

@crankywxguy seems to be basing a lot of the direction of this storm on a Yukon/BC high, and the timing of it's arrival as a steering mechanism.

Anyone want to help me put up storm shutters? It's absolutely zero fun to do.

Going to be lots of pulled plugs on plans. Cash out the door on Charleston. It not sure if it's worth it if folks will be preparing

Could be a cross over like Jeanne was Labor day 15 years age

I think it's all gonna blow over and just be some rain. #contrarian

she's gonna slice through Florida Bobbit-style

Cranky weather guy now predicting a doozy.

Rex wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:42 pm she's gonna slice through Florida Bobbit-style

That would be about 6 large-ish cities in the path.

I assume that sharp turn to the northeast is what will happen when Trump nukes it?

I think I can see my beach condo in the eye at the very end of that loop.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:57 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:42 pm she's gonna slice through Florida Bobbit-style

That would be about 6 large-ish cities in the path.

And only 1.5 we'll miss

I need New Orleans to make it though this hurricane season intact since I’m going there in November.

Forecast just upped to a Cat 4 at landfall

I think a weird Trump thing that almost no one talks about is how he uses exclamation points when tweeting about these storms, almost like he's excited. He just tweeted "maybe one of the biggest!" in relation to Dorian. I hope it misses the US but if it does hit I hope fucking Mar-A-Lago takes the worst of it.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:27 am I think a weird Trump thing that almost no one talks about is how he uses exclamation points when tweeting about these storms, almost like he's excited. He just tweeted "maybe one of the biggest!" in relation to Dorian. I hope it misses the US but if it does hit I hope fucking Mar-A-Lago takes the worst of it.

And Doral gets obliterated.

Although, there would then probably be hundreds of millions siphoned to his company to repair the places.

Yes. Please, please wipe out Mar-a-lago and Doral.

Those fugging evangelicals who said that California earthquakes are a sign of judgement from God - what will they say?

Facebook friend (who I've never met - friend of a friend) who lives outside Miami posted this...

185 MPH sustained winds with 220 MPH gusts.

It’s supposed to pivot north at some point tomorrow afternoon, and all the spaghetti models are saying pretty much the same thing. Of course, until they don’t. My dad says he’s going to wait to decide to leave (Palm Beach Gardens), which I think is stupid. He should be driving across the state to spend a few days at a hotel in Tampa.

:angry duck face:

At least he is not in Alabama, going to be hit hard

The Hurricane Hunters are fucking bad ass.

Jesus!

Those guys have balls of steel.

Very little sign of preparations in Charleston. Gov evacuated the town but I was surprised at the lack of concern generally. The highway did flip so that was a sight. Evacuation routes really do take you where you need to go.

I'm not one to root for natural disasters, but I kinda want Hurricane Karen to happen for the meme potential. The haircut photoshops. The demand to speak with Florida's manager. All of it.

(And next year for Kyle and the drywall jokes.)

https://geology.com/hurricanes/hurricane-names.shtml

Tropical Storm Karen forms east of the Windward Islands

What am I missing ?

"Karen" as nickname for someone who always wants to talk to the manager, and is a general pain in the ass.

ETA - also the name of my HS girlfriend. Fittingly.

A Ron Swanson gif should only be associated with Tammy.