The Swamp

Pretty crazy this is where we are but yep.

I think Fritz has the correct theory and also Trump did not write that reassuring tweet

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:41 pm Just in case you weren't freaked out enough...

Jared and Ivanka are on it!

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:59 pm Remember these?

Is that done by the Red meat guy or just the same style?

EdRomero wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:21 pm I think Fritz has the correct theory and also Trump did not write that reassuring tweet

Fritz’s other tweet was even less optimistic.

I can't decide if Trump is going to go with "de-escalate" and then claim tomorrow he deserves the Peace Prize or if he's going to push the red button.

Had this same debate last night. I'm self-evidently a fatalist, but if you believe the primary intent here is to serve as a distraction, you can't think this is over versus just starting.

It might depend on the investigation of the plane crash.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:25 am It might depend on the investigation of the plane crash.

Wait, is there suspicion that's something more than a unfortunate coincidence in proximity? I know there were a lot of Canadians on the flight, so you are probably getting a different coverage.

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:28 am

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:25 am It might depend on the investigation of the plane crash.

Wait, is there suspicion that's something more than a unfortunate coincidence in proximity? I know there were a lot of Canadians on the flight, so you are probably getting a different coverage.

Still sketchy right now but footage that the plane was on fire and broke apart in the air and the Iranians are holding the black boxes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5418755

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:28 am

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:25 am It might depend on the investigation of the plane crash.

Wait, is there suspicion that's something more than a unfortunate coincidence in proximity? I know there were a lot of Canadians on the flight, so you are probably getting a different coverage.

A Ukranian jet going down in Iran leaves a lot of groups that could have had something nefarious to do with it, including at least two state actors (Russian and Iran), so I wouldn't close the books that it was just an accident yet regardless of the initial reporting.

Trump making people wait makes me think he's going to go out there and go off script and admit he's Iron Man.*



* - I set the over/under on 4 swampers who get this.

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:11 am Trump making people wait makes me think he's going to go out there and go off script and admit he's Iron Man.*



* - I set the over/under on 4 swampers who get this.

Several photos in this article show 'punctures' on the horizontal stabilizer and fuselage. Look at the aerial photo of the debris field, I would say this aircraft did not fall out of the sky because of 'technical difficulties'.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html

This is very tepid praise, but I really don't think Trump has any kind of appetite for an actual war with Iran. Because he's stupid I don't think he realized that Iran would respond strongly after the assassination of their general. Even if he was briefed on it, I doubt he bothered to think through the repercussions, but Iran's response not causing any casualties gave him an out which he apparently has taken.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail now.

I'd say there's a 80-90 percent chance that Ukrainian flight was brought down with military grade weapons.

Much less sure who is behind it, but setting up shop near airports with anti-aircraft doesn't require top echelon military tactics of skills.

63 Canadians killed in that crash.

Do you think that it will be confirmed if it were shot out of the sky?

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:48 pm 63 Canadians killed in that crash.

Do you think that it will be confirmed if it were shot out of the sky?

If nothing else the fact that it was a Boeing jet means we should get the true story before too long. They're not going to allow a coverup to falsely blame the equipment.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:51 pm

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:48 pm 63 Canadians killed in that crash.

Do you think that it will be confirmed if it were shot out of the sky?

If nothing else the fact that it was a Boeing jet means we should get the true story before too long. They're not going to allow a coverup to blame the equipment.

Iran says it will not give black box from crashed airliner to Boeing

“We will not give the black boxes to the manufacturer (Boeing) and the Americans. It’s not yet clear which country the black box will go to for the investigation,” he added.

“This accident will be investigated by Iran’s aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident’s investigation,” he added.

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:08 pm I'd say there's a 80-90 percent chance that Ukrainian flight was brought down with military grade weapons.

Much less sure who is behind it, but setting up shop near airports with anti-aircraft doesn't require top echelon military tactics of skills.

Yeah, when we talk about how everything is framed as a conspiracy theory these days, this is the sort of thing where plenty of otherwise inquisitive people are going to run away from the most reasonable conclusion, given the timing.

Don't really want to change the subject, but has it been reported why there were so many Canadians on a flight from Tehran to Ukraine? I can't imagine Iran is a very popular destination for Canadians to visit.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 pm Don't really want to change the subject, but has it been reported why there were so many Canadians on a flight from Tehran to Ukraine? I can't imagine Iran is a very popular destination for Canadians to visit.

The new "Argo" ride at Disney Tehran is super popular.

By what right would the US get the black box? Also, I have zero faith that us getting it would lead to the truth.

(eta: I guess Boeing would have the argument of needing it)

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:16 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 pm Don't really want to change the subject, but has it been reported why there were so many Canadians on a flight from Tehran to Ukraine? I can't imagine Iran is a very popular destination for Canadians to visit.

The new "Argo" ride at Disney Tehran is super popular.

P.D.X. wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:18 pm By what right would the US get the black box? Also, I have zero faith that us getting it would lead to the truth.

(eta: I guess Boeing would have the argument of needing it)

Yeah, international laws dictate the country where the accident occurred is responsible for the investigation but Boeing would have an argument the data recorder should be conveyed to them at some point even if it is not immediately.

I think one argument against assuming this was somehow the "fault" of the Iranians would be the number of Iranians that were killed. Also, no terrorist orgs have claimed responsibility which is unusual since that's usually the point of doing these things -- you want people to know about it (i.e. to be terrorized).

Well shit. Now I'm gonna play conspiracy and wonder if WE shot the thing down thinking it was another attack. I'm jumping to that conclusion based on how Trump acted.

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:43 pm Well shit. Now I'm gonna play conspiracy and wonder if WE shot the thing down thinking it was another attack. I'm jumping to that conclusion based on how Trump acted.

Wouldn’t be the first time. We shot down an Iran Air commercial flight over Iranian airspace in 1988.

Wouldn't be the first time we "mistakenly" shot down an Iranian jetliner.

The flight was delayed so not on the schedule of flights to look for, everyone on high alert with Trump scrambling the f35s, someone flipping a switch or two on anti-aircraft battery, the plane shot down accidentally.

Even that scenario fails to account for why the Iranians aren't pushing that narrative then. It makes America looks stupid, weak and incompetent which plays into Iran's hands.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 pm Don't really want to change the subject, but has it been reported why there were so many Canadians on a flight from Tehran to Ukraine? I can't imagine Iran is a very popular destination for Canadians to visit.

The cheapest way for Iranian-Canadians to travel to Tehran is through Kiev.

Toronto-Kiev-Tehran

There were 20 from Edmonton including 2 UofA profs. Others included exchange students coming back to Canada for the Winter Semester on Monday.

Flight list.
https://www.flyuia.com/uk/en/news/2020/ ... enger-list

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 pm Don't really want to change the subject, but has it been reported why there were so many Canadians on a flight from Tehran to Ukraine? I can't imagine Iran is a very popular destination for Canadians to visit.

From the BBC:

It was unclear why such a large number of Canadians were on board, however the airline provides relatively inexpensive flights via Kyiv to Toronto. Some of the Canadians were thought to be students returning at the end of the school holidays.

And from what I've read, it seems like pretty much all of the Canadians were of Iranian background. A lot of them were pretty young. Some heartbreaking stories...

If it's true that the Iranians shot down a plane full overseas Iranians, that's going to be really bad PR for the regime overseas.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 pm If it's true that the Iranians shot down a plane full overseas Iranians, that's going to be really bad PR for the regime overseas.

Another reason to assume it wasn't the Iranians. Or at least not state-sponsored actors.

Sen. Mike Lee is not happy with the briefing he got...

138 of the passengers were going to continue on to Canada from Kiev. CBC interviewed a guy at Pearson from that flight, who said the seat next to him was empty and he knew it was because the person who was supposed to sit there was gone.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:10 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 pm If it's true that the Iranians shot down a plane full overseas Iranians, that's going to be really bad PR for the regime overseas.

Another reason to assume it wasn't the Iranians. Or at least not state-sponsored actors.

Or Iranians on purpose. Not everyone reacts well in pressure situations.

Just watched an American Experience episode on McCarthy: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperi ... /mccarthy/

Should be subtitled, History Does Repeat. From a review of the documentary:

It is about politics in a climate of fear substantially created by politics. It takes up issues too of the confusion of a press faced with a powerful figure who, as one commentator describes him, “was willing to assert things that he knew weren’t true and … did it with aplomb.”...

...For a time, McCarthy was the tail that swung the cat. Fellow Republicans were afraid to cross him, lest his displeasure interfere with their reelection. Newspapers liked him because he sold papers

It takes up issues too... ?

Sorry, first thing I've read this morning, so it caught my eye. That's pretty bad.