The Swamp

That’s unreal. On both levels. That’s just one beach. That’s an amazing lack of privacy that we all just live with.

Boris Johnson

Although this guy is such a lying, conniving P.O.S., I wouldn't be surprised if he was making this up for political gain. Or (less cynically) to lead by example.

Hopkins soccer alumni email chain, many of them doctors up in NY... Scary shit. Nothing you haven't read on here, but hearing those guys talk about ventilators and stuff. Somehow makes it hit home a little more.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:58 am That’s unreal. On both levels. That’s just one beach. That’s an amazing lack of privacy that we all just live with.

A significant part of China's containment efforts were based on the ridiculous extent to which they were able to track their population through popular smartphone apps. Essentially the Chinese government assigned massive numbers of people in Hubei Province a risk level based on their known contacts and movements and then refined their quarantine strategy by following the movements of those people. In this case that technology was used for a good purpose, but it's pretty dystopian how little privacy people have from their governments.

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:45 am Hopkins soccer alumni email chain, many of them doctors up in NY... Scary shit. Nothing you haven't read on here, but hearing those guys talk about ventilators and stuff. Somehow makes it hit home a little more.

OTOH, Trump said NYC doesn't need more ventilators, so [insert meme cartoon of dog in house on fire] everything is fine!

Morris County NJ expected to have need for ICU beds exceed capacity starting today. Other NJ counties expected to exceed capacity within days... The Governor issued strict requirements to hospitals on deciding who lives and dies. That's not going to be fun in practice. "Sorry, I know you are already hooked up to this machine and we can save you, but the Governor said we need to take you off to save that guy instead. We are just going to wheel you out into that crowded hallway with the rest of the people slowly suffocated to death." At least they have the refrigerated trucks ready to go.

"Aspirational projection" is just another way of saying "lie," right?

Millburn (NJ) TJ's is closed for cleaning. Almost certainly means someone there had/has it.

Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:27 am Boris Johnson

Although this guy is such a lying, conniving P.O.S., I wouldn't be surprised if he was making this up for political gain. Or (less cynically) to lead by example.

Baloney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:57 am

Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:27 am Boris Johnson

Although this guy is such a lying, conniving P.O.S., I wouldn't be surprised if he was making this up for political gain. Or (less cynically) to lead by example.

Now that’s funny. (I followed the last UK election just enough to get the Johnson-fridge reference.)

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:34 am Toronto is closed.

Libraries, day cares, schools, universities, city offices. Mayor is in self-isolation.

My big fear is that the municipal courses won;t open if the city workers are still off next month.

On a happier note, gas is now 83 cents a litre. Which is the equivalent of $3.15 Canadian per one of your gallons. (or about $2.40 US)

Last week gas was $1.19 per litre.

I filled up this morning. 61.9!!!

Worthwhile read by an epidemiologist (and Grant Wahl's wife):

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:13 pm Has anyone read a good explanation for why the reported death rate varies so much by country? I'm looking at the Johns Hopkins dataset, and among the five countries with the most cases, the current death rate (deaths/confirmed cases) is as follows:

USA - 1.5%
China - 4.0%
Italy - 10.2%
Spain - 7.5%
Germany - 0.6%

I know there's probably a lot of variance among countries with respect to accuracy of reporting, testing rates and demographics. But if the US is significantly under-testing, which we all think is true, than our actual death rate would me a lot lower than 1.5% and perhaps closer to Germany's. So what explains the huge disparity between USA/Germany and Italy/Spain?

I think it has a lot to do with where and when the outbreaks happened. The US is big, so mostly spread our cases over a lot of hospitals with a lot of capacity. Italy was hit hard in a relatively small region and the system got overwhelmed. They couldn't treat people, so their death rate is much higher. This is probably true in Spain as well. I also suspect their healthcare system probably isn't as good as ours or Germany's.

I don't think a genetic marker for Italians makes any sense. Populations aren't nearly that isolated or genetically different.

Shirley wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:12 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:13 pm Has anyone read a good explanation for why the reported death rate varies so much by country? I'm looking at the Johns Hopkins dataset, and among the five countries with the most cases, the current death rate (deaths/confirmed cases) is as follows:

USA - 1.5%
China - 4.0%
Italy - 10.2%
Spain - 7.5%
Germany - 0.6%

I know there's probably a lot of variance among countries with respect to accuracy of reporting, testing rates and demographics. But if the US is significantly under-testing, which we all think is true, than our actual death rate would me a lot lower than 1.5% and perhaps closer to Germany's. So what explains the huge disparity between USA/Germany and Italy/Spain?

I think it has a lot to do with where and when the outbreaks happened. The US is big, so mostly spread our cases over a lot of hospitals with a lot of capacity. Italy was hit hard in a relatively small region and the system got overwhelmed. They couldn't treat people, so their death rate is much higher. This is probably true in Spain as well. I also suspect their healthcare system probably isn't as good as ours or Germany's.

I don't think a genetic marker for Italians makes any sense. Populations aren't nearly that isolated or genetically different.

Yes and the US, for all it's shortages, still has enough tools to control the outbreak, at this point. But it seems now is the breaking point. As cases grow, I could see that number growing as resources run out and choices have to be made. Expect the US to finish around 5% once it's over.

Heard dependent upon the pool tested. If you test a larger pool then you pull in more asymptomatic cases. A smaller pool has more severe cases. Who knows.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:36 am Heard dependent upon the pool tested. If you test a larger pool then you pull in more asymptomatic cases. A smaller pool has more severe cases. Who knows.

This is a big factor. South Korea was testing damned near everybody, so lots of asymptomatic or mild symptoms people are getting tested, where in they aren't getting tested.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:52 am

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:36 am Heard dependent upon the pool tested. If you test a larger pool then you pull in more asymptomatic cases. A smaller pool has more severe cases. Who knows.

This is a big factor. South Korea was testing damned near everybody, so lots of asymptomatic or mild symptoms people are getting tested, where in they aren't getting tested.

Right, but by all accounts there aren't many asymptomatic or mild-symptom cases being tested in the U.S. If there were, the death rate gap between us and Italy/Spain would be even larger. Italy has a relatively old and relatively dense population, but it's also known to have high quality healthcare. Which makes the massive gap in death rate between Italy and Germany/US puzzling to me.

I believe one large contributing factor to Italy's high death rate is they have a high (highest in EU? Most recent article I found on a quick search was 2016) percentage of multi-generation homes.

This is interesting, but not surprising. Germans are famous for following instructions and doing as they're told.

The mystery of Germany’s low coronavirus death rate

They also have a culture, like South Korea, where there's a general "give a shit about your neighbor" air that America refuses to adopt.

Joe K wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:57 am

The Sybian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:52 am

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:36 am Heard dependent upon the pool tested. If you test a larger pool then you pull in more asymptomatic cases. A smaller pool has more severe cases. Who knows.

This is a big factor. South Korea was testing damned near everybody, so lots of asymptomatic or mild symptoms people are getting tested, where in they aren't getting tested.

Right, but by all accounts there aren't many asymptomatic or mild-symptom cases being tested in the U.S. If there were, the death rate gap between us and Italy/Spain would be even larger. Italy has a relatively old and relatively dense population, but it's also known to have high quality healthcare. Which makes the massive gap in death rate between Italy and Germany/US puzzling to me.

I don't know the testing rates in Italy and Spain, I was just making a point as to why the US will have a much higher fatality rate than South Korea. I think high numbers of smokers in Italy doesn't help when the virus gets into peoples lungs. I also think they live in more densely populated areas and tend to shop at large central markets. They hug and kiss to greet people... I thought the US being more spread out and less touchy-feely would have helped. Then again, if you take out NYC and NJ, the virus hasn't spread as badly as I expected. I assume proximity to NYC and number of commuters in NYC is the reason NJ is so badly hit. Some of the more rural counties aren't see much spread.

Roger Goodell is a true asshole's asshole.

NFL draft to go on in April; Roger Goodell memo warns against public comment

You can just fine someone for saying words? Can't the NFLPA speak anonymously on their behalf? That seems really fucked.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm
You can just fine someone for saying words?

Sure, happens all the time. Leagues have been fining for years for saying words. Free agent "tampering", criticizing a league and/or refereeing, various slurs, etc. This is a stretch of the concept but hardly a new one.

Rams Fanny wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:41 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm
You can just fine someone for saying words?

Sure, happens all the time. Leagues have been fining for years for saying words. Free agent "tampering", criticizing a league and/or refereeing, various slurs, etc. This is a stretch of the concept but hardly a new one.

Wasn't there going to be some scale back of overbearing punishments when the new CBA was being negotiated according to people years ago because "protecting the shield" means you can take things too far? So did the NFLPA just not even try to argue that recently? I mean, in light of this damn virus saying something like "this sounds like a bad idea" being meet with a fine makes me scratch my head.

The Southern Nevada Health District said today they have only 119 tests left. For a county of 2.3 million people.

This response by the federal government and Trump is unforgivable. The number of people who die from this incompetence will be incalculable.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:03 am

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:34 am Toronto is closed.

Libraries, day cares, schools, universities, city offices. Mayor is in self-isolation.

My big fear is that the municipal courses won;t open if the city workers are still off next month.

On a happier note, gas is now 83 cents a litre. Which is the equivalent of $3.15 Canadian per one of your gallons. (or about $2.40 US)

Last week gas was $1.19 per litre.

I filled up this morning. 61.9!!!

67 cents now.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:55 pm The Southern Nevada Health District said today they have only 119 tests left. For a county of 2.3 million people.

This response by the federal government and Trump is unforgivable. The number of people who die from this incompetence will be incalculable.

Your Governor should have said nice things about Trump...

From off the top rope, John Kerry...

The Sybian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:26 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:55 pm The Southern Nevada Health District said today they have only 119 tests left. For a county of 2.3 million people.

This response by the federal government and Trump is unforgivable. The number of people who die from this incompetence will be incalculable.

Your Governor should have said nice things about Trump...

He’s a man so Trump probably not interested in taking him on on social media.

We have a third degree connection with Covid. Friend of nephews has a mom that is confirmed. We know her and have seen her at ballgames but don’t have normal contact.

Sucks. 13 year old and 9 month old. Dads aren’t in the picture.

A_B wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:51 pm We have a third degree connection with Covid. Friend of nephews has a mom that is confirmed. We know her and have seen her at ballgames but don’t have normal contact.

Sucks. 13 year old and 9 month old. Dads aren’t in the picture.

A couple days ago I saw a former coworker post a pic of a friend who just died from COVID. Guy in his mid 50s. Seen a bunch of others testing positive.

Anyone worried about Trump ultimately getting a bump from this really shouldn’t.

Then fuck 538 for showing a bump in his approval rating.

I'm just like...HOW SWAY? HOW?

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:09 pm Then fuck 538 for showing a bump in his approval rating.

I'm just like...HOW SWAY? HOW?

total approval and pandemic approval are two different things

Covid will very definitely still be impacting life in November, even if we learn to live with it. He will lie and try to rewrite history but when folks get ballots in the mail instead of voting booths or better, have to band together to safely get out to voting booths, a movement is all but set. The ads are already written in his own voice. "It's a hoax" will ring loudly.

If you thought grocery store lines were impressive, wait for the bank lines the week those stimulus checks hit.

The great John Prine, and his wife, both tested positive.

rass wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:09 pm The city where my wife works for the health department will go over 100 total cases this weekend, if not by tomorrow.

That was Thursday. They’re over 200 as of today.

Maryland mandatory stay home orders starting at 8 pm tonight. There’s been some bad clusters here now - including a nursing facility in Mt. Airy well west of baltimore.