The Swamp

20 percent false results???

That's insane.

Feel better man.

Thoughts, Sabo. Viruses are indeed, bastards.

Thanks, everyone. All I can do is take things one day at a time.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:18 am One other thing considering you said you had just gone on a hike would be Lyme disease?

From what I understand about Lyme disease, it takes a while from initial infection to developing symptoms. But it's possible I have that instead. I go hiking a lot, and I check myself for ticks after every hike. But I might've missed one or the tick fell off before I found it. I hope it isn't Lyme. My friend's wife has it and it's affected her greatly.

Yeah, I really hope it isn't that man. Feel better soon.

Growth rate is up, so we've slid from green to orange.

And DE is now on the quarantine list, so though it was unlikely my parents definitely can't even come up for a day trip for my youngest's birthday next week.

That third checkmark is a blank slate for people to say they have issues if they don't want to wear it. Do you have to have a doctor's note?

I don't think quarantine applies to less than 24 hour visits.

rass wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:00 pm

And DE is now on the quarantine list, so though it was unlikely my parents definitely can't even come up for a day trip for my youngest's birthday next week.

Still debating having my parents visit for my son's birthday in two weeks. Their area is pretty virus free, my town hasn't had a community case in several weeks, and we are all very limited in outside exposure. They would stay at our house. Probably fine, but I don't want to take a chance with their health. They are both healthy, but in their mid 70s. We are all leaning towards having them visit. We would probably just hang around the house, bring in dinner, and not much else. We've seen my inlaws twice, just sitting distanced in their front yard. No contact, we don't go inside.

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:37 pm Getting tested tomorrow. Guy at work tested positive this morning. Once I found out, I cleaned up my desk and told my boss I was working remote. I didn't have any contact with the infected for at least a month, but I was in contact with people that sat in his cubicle area.

Any chance your results have come back?

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:04 pm

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:37 pm Getting tested tomorrow. Guy at work tested positive this morning. Once I found out, I cleaned up my desk and told my boss I was working remote. I didn't have any contact with the infected for at least a month, but I was in contact with people that sat in his cubicle area.

Any chance your results have come back?

Got the negative result back yesterday. But after Sabo's uplifting post about 20% failure rate, doesn't make me feel comfortable. The good news I have no symptoms. Bad news, another two from work have it. Not going back for some time.

A friend's mom is the Director of Nursing at a local elder care facility. They have been hit as expected with patients and staff testing positive. However, her boss got skeptical about some of their testing after they had 15 staff test positive one Monday after being fine on Friday. So they re-checked them immediately, and 13 of the 15 came back negative. So testing is far from perfect in both directions, which is quite terrifying.

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:09 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:04 pm

duff wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:37 pm Getting tested tomorrow. Guy at work tested positive this morning. Once I found out, I cleaned up my desk and told my boss I was working remote. I didn't have any contact with the infected for at least a month, but I was in contact with people that sat in his cubicle area.

Any chance your results have come back?

Got the negative result back yesterday. But after Sabo's uplifting post about 20% failure rate, doesn't make me feel comfortable. The good news I have no symptoms. Bad news, another two from work have it. Not going back for some time.

Sabo's test was the drizzling shits.

Spanish study shows that antibodies might only last weeks in some people.

This is very not good. If even close to accurate, it shows that herd immunity will be impossible without an effective vaccine.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:56 pm Spanish study shows that antibodies might only last weeks in some people.

This is very not good. If even close to accurate, it shows that herd immunity will be impossible without an effective vaccine.

I'll defer to anyone with medical/scientific expertise, but from what I've read, antibodies indicate a recent infection and it's normal for them to go away a while after an active infection. Antibodies are just one part of the immunity equation, in addition to Memory B/Memory T cells which recognize the virus upon a subsequent infection and re-produce the antibodies, resulting in less-severe effects.

There was a Twitter thread from a respected expert a few days ago, I'll see if I can track it down.

Johnny Carwash wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:34 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:56 pm Spanish study shows that antibodies might only last weeks in some people.

This is very not good. If even close to accurate, it shows that herd immunity will be impossible without an effective vaccine.

I'll defer to anyone with medical/scientific expertise, but from what I've read, antibodies indicate a recent infection and it's normal for them to go away a while after an active infection. Antibodies are just one part of the immunity equation, in addition to Memory B/Memory T cells which recognize the virus upon a subsequent infection and re-produce the antibodies, resulting in less-severe effects.

There was a Twitter thread from a respected expert a few days ago, I'll see if I can track it down.

Yeah, I've seen similar studies/reports as well, so if you find it great, but if not I get it, but think it just goes to show that the crowd of people that seem to be leaning towards "let's just get to herd immunity no matter what" are not only foolhardy in that we don't know the full potential long-term effects of COVID, there's no guarantee of any meaningful herd immunity even if we could get there.

Found it:


Not an endorsement of a "herd immunity right now" mentality, but that previous article was kind of misleading in suggesting getting infected doesn't matter at all for future resistance to infection.

e: Business Insider is kind of a trash site anyway. Here are the other top articles after that one:

That was pretty good, but still fairly speculative and light on "hard" science (which considering the virus has been extant in humans for all of about 185 days give or take, not terribly surprising. I do hope he's right.

Damn, Sabo. That sounds awful. And pretty crazy if it's NOT COVID-19. I hope you're feeling at least a bit better by now.

Shirley wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:22 pm Damn, Sabo. That sounds awful. And pretty crazy if it's NOT COVID-19. I hope you're feeling at least a bit better by now.

Right now, I feel like utter crap. But that's probably because I worked all day and was digging out from being out for a week and a half. I also had a conference call with my new boss*, and that call was stressful at times and didn't go very well. And before dinner tonight, the stress of everything finally got to Mrs. Sabo and she let it all out.

I could use a stiff drink right now, but I don't think that would be wise.

* Last Tuesday, during our departmental conference call, he told our team to keep me in their thoughts as I was very ill, which was nice. But what was not so nice is he also told everyone I had a Covid-19 test. Gonna guess he hadn't reviewed the HIPAA documentation yet. To his credit, I only learned about this when he emailed me later that day to apologize for letting everyone know. Had I learned that from someone else I would've been livid.

Who could have guessed?

I dunno. The press has an agenda, and we all do too. We need a lot more than a big increase to establish a causal connection.

How does Tulsa’s increase compare with other similarly situated cities in Oklahoma and in the South? How many of the new cases are from people who attended the rally? How many of the 6300 rally attendees were actually from Tulsa?

(Even if every attendee was from Tulsa County, that’s still less than one percent of the county population.)

Three weeks later seems statistically irrelevant.

Note: I am not an epidemiologist

rass wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:55 pmThe nursing home my wife has been tracking/tracing since early April just reported 9 positives today. Definitely their highest single-day total, and just a couple of days shy of two incubation periods without a new case, which would have allowed them to declare the outbreak over. They're hoping the lab fucked up.

AB’s story reminded me to follow up on this (what was the acronym TB (sorry, MB) used to use on the front? NTAC?).

They retested all 9 positives the next day, and all were negative. The lab refused to admit any fault in the first set of tests, so the state insisted they retest the original samples. All 9 came back positive again, so all 9 patients had to be treated as positive by the facility.

Today the facility had a 24 year old test positive and then end up the hospital after a possible stroke. She wasn’t feeling well yesterday, but went to work anyway, fed a bunch of patients, left to get tested because she still didn’t feel well, and then went back to work. She admitted she had partied a little hard over the weekend, indulged in some edibles and thought she was just a little rundown from that. My wife is due to turn responsibility for tracking this facility over to someone else very soon...

All the best, Sabo!

Pregnant? Feel Better Sabo...

My brother's Sprint store has been closed for two weeks due to one of his assistant managers testing positive. So I guess I get to find out today if I get to take a test depending on my brother's result.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:55 pm

Yeah, but when you correct for population size, we have only, um, 32 times as many cases as Germany.

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:14 am

A true patriot. Leaving his Earthly body on Merry Fucking Fireworks Day!

OK, that should go in the "Really fucking funny Capt Trips thread".

I honestly have no sympathy for his family or friends. I feel bad knowing that, but the more people like him that die, the better off we'll be.

He also didn't look like a particularly healthy individual, despite protestations of his friends. I wonder if being in better shape could've helped him.

You can't feel bad for someone who ignores all evidence, calls logical scientific proof "hype" and then has something terrible happen.

Like the guy who built a home made rocket to prove the the earth was flat and then died after takeoff. Sorry, but not sorry for laughing.

DSafe can probably tell you guys more than you want to know about the area of Ohio where that guy is from.

brian wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:11 pm DSafe can probably tell you guys more than you want to know about the area of Ohio where that guy is from.

Beach town a little ways east of Toledo on Lake Erie. The island where he took that pool picture is nothing but a summer party place that is functional about 30 days of the year (weekends between Memorial Day and Labor Day, plus July 4).

That general area is full of braindead fucks.

I am (not really) missing my family reunion today.

Governor here mandated masks yesterday. Went to grocery store and saw 100 percent people with masks. Was impressed.


Didn’t stop McConnells hand picked attorney general from filing a suit against it. Even though McConnell himself has said wear a mask. Just overtly political and petty that people like the governor.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:04 pm

He needed to step down a long time ago. Media will give him just as large a platform and he could use it for good.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:04 pm

Isn't it terrible when your most negative, most cynical thoughts are proven to be right?

Jesus that's sickening.