2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate

[L-Jam3]

Consider the source:

In the wake of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, Kimberley Strassel suggested teachers could be equipped with stun grenades to protect their students.

[rass]

Borat 2 appears to have been released a day early.

[mister d]

Link: Hunter Biden once told a hostess at Mikimoto’s he was Joe Biden’s son to skip the 45 minute wait line

psunate: “Fuck holy fuck jesus christ fuck shit fuck it’s over it’s so over fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck paterno had no way of knowing ...”

[brian]

My stress is thru the roof and I have an escape plan. I’m not sure how some of you guys are doing it.

[govmentchedda]

Borat 2 appears to have been released a day early.

Niiiiccceee. I saw someone tweet about a 9 pm group watch.

[L-Jam3]

Borat 2 appears to have been released a day early.

Niiiiccceee. I saw someone tweet about a 9 pm group watch.

C’mon people! NFC East football is on!

[degenerasian]

Biden just smoked him on the corruption question.

[psunate77]

Turned it off, Trump continues to be allowed to tell lie after lie after lie and nobody calls him out..

[degenerasian]

You're going to have the best healthcare ever that you're going to forget you don't have healthcare.

[Steve of phpBB]

So the first thing Biden says when asked what he’d do if Obamacare is struck down is “I’m gonna pass a public option.”

(Which of course doesn’t actually answer the particular question, and maybe it’s more of his serial lying, but he certainly seems committed to it.)

[Steve of phpBB]

Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

[A_B]

Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

Steve it’s ok to be a republican just as long as you hate trump. Lean in.

[Johnnie]

This is my face like 65% of the day:

[DaveInSeattle]

Fuck

And...her opinion piece has been debunked by...wait for it...the news side of...wait for it...the Wall Street Journal.

[tennbengal]

Fuck

And...her opinion piece has been debunked by...wait for it...the news side of...wait for it...the Wall Street Journal.

Don't tell psunate.

[tennbengal]

Hello from PA this AM:

[EnochRoot]

soo-nah-tay

[L-Jam3]

Not empirical in any way, but I’m up here in NE PA, solidly in Pennsylvania’s Red T. I’ve seen Biden paraphernalia only slightly less than Trump, basically 55-45 Trump. If he’s only that level here, then he’s got no chance taking PA is if Philly and Pittsburgh city come out strong.

I’ll talk to you guys in a bit. I have to go get married.

[A_B]

Shit, talk about burying the lede! L-jam's pregnant, guys!

[tennbengal]

Not empirical in any way, but I’m up here in NE PA, solidly in Pennsylvania’s Red T. I’ve seen Biden paraphernalia only slightly less than Trump, basically 55-45 Trump. If he’s only that level here, then he’s got no chance taking PA is if Philly and Pittsburgh city come out strong.

I’ll talk to you guys in a bit. I have to go get married.

Congrats!

Also, more context for Muhlenberg - check out the undecideds available in 2016 compared to now - and where Biden's top number is now compared to Clinton:

[govmentchedda]

Borat 2 appears to have been released a day early.

Niiiiccceee. I saw someone tweet about a 9 pm group watch.

C’mon people! NFC East football is on!

My review of Borat 2's first hour or so (got tired and turned it off right as attention turned to Rudy), is that it must be really hard to build plot around the crazy shit that he gets people to do. Some of the overt stuff is laugh out loud funny, and he has a few quick responses in conversation that are subtly hilarious, but a lot of the plot development isn't that great.

[The Sybian]

Hello from PA this AM:

Sure, but PSUNate posted a poll from MAGA Pollski Institute with a website based in Novgorod Russia showed Trump even, so I am going to shit my pants.

[DSafetyGuy]

Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

I noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.

[psunate77]

Hello from PA this AM:

Sure, but PSUNate posted a poll from MAGA Pollski Institute with a website based in Novgorod Russia showed Trump even, so I am going to shit my pants.

And.... polls are bullshit. I don’t think it’s a 7 point edge especially with the way Trump got support in the Central and Western part of PA.

[psunate77]

Anyways if anyone cares about this.

[Pruitt]

Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...

How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time

But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.

And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.

I pray that this is right.

[The Sybian]

And.... polls are bullshit. I don’t think it’s a 7 point edge especially with the way Trump got support in the Central and Western part of PA.

So then why did you keep posting polls from organizations nobody has ever heard of showing Trump doing better than every known reputable poll?

[Steve of phpBB]

Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

I noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.

Didn’t realize I needed to. The Nation and a red-rose tweeter are complaining about Dems. Dog bites man.

Specifically, Biden doesn’t favor a fracking ban. But he apparently promotes transitioning off fossil fuels. I’m ok with that. (Ecstatic that he said the second part out loud; I hope his taking such a clearly progressive stance doesn’t cost him.)

Barrett? The Rs have a majority. She’s getting confirmed.

You know how you prevent that? You make sure Dems beat Rs. You don’t vote for the Green Party and you shame the fuck out of people who do.

[Nonlinear FC]

Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...

How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time

But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.

And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.

I pray that this is right.

Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)

[EnochRoot]

Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

I noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.

Didn’t realize I needed to. The Nation and a red-rose tweeter are complaining about Dems. Dog bites man.

Specifically, Biden doesn’t favor a fracking ban. But he apparently promotes transitioning off fossil fuels. I’m ok with that. (Ecstatic that he said the second part out loud; I hope his taking such a clearly progressive stance doesn’t cost him.)

Barrett? The Rs have a majority. She’s getting confirmed.

You know how you prevent that? You make sure Dems beat Rs. You don’t vote for the Green Party and you shame the fuck out of people who do.

The Oil & Gas industry are part of the larger energy sector. They’re all heavily invested in wind turbines, solar panels, and other alternative energy sources.

Biden could’ve worded it better by talking about net job growth in the energy sector, etc. But I agree that quiet part needs to be said out loud. The debate stage may not have been the best place to espouse it.

[mister d]

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

So I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?

[A_B]

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

So I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?

There's definitely a part of the populace that will do what your last sentence states. I am hopeful, however, that a bunch of the people who held their nose and voted for him in 2016 will not do so this time with a less-polarizing candidate and at least even that out.

But increased turnout (538 is predicting over 20 million plus extra votes) is typically a good thing for the Blue side.

[Steve of phpBB]

Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...

How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time

But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.

And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.

I pray that this is right.

Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)

Plus the polls had been up and down and we had that major shift with the Comey letter. The Biden-Trump polling and Trump’s net approval have been pretty steady for a long time.

[tennbengal]

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

So I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?

The notion of the "shy trump voter" as being the reason for polls to have been off at state level has been debunked. The bigger issue is the weighting of the polls over-stated percentage of voters with college degrees versus those without. Was particularly a problem in the WI/MI/PA polling. It was like 10% off on that score. The polling now is in line with 2016 - so unless even less college degree voters turn out (unlikely given the motivation now) - the polling doesn't have that same error baked in. In fact, it may be under-stating the % of college degree votes this time around. All of which is to say, of course you shouldn't take polling to the bank, but there is good reason to have some hope that Biden is in relatively good shape in some important states (WI, MI, PA, maybe even NC and AZ).

[tennbengal]

Mr. D- here's what I was trying to get at - see this from Cohn this AM as to Muhlenberg:



Basically - their weighting was too heavy on college degrees in their final poll (and even that final post-debate PA poll only had HRC up by 5 with FIFTEEN PERCENT undecided - yikes).

This final post-debate PA poll has weightings that match what 2016 was and Biden still shows up 7 (and crucially over 50%) and with only five percent undecided.

It's as good a spot as Dems could hope to be in, in that crucial state , with regard to that particular pollster, as one might reasonably hope for...

[Steve of phpBB]

Mr. D- here's what I was trying to get at - see this from Cohn this AM as to Muhlenberg:



Basically - their weighting was too heavy on college degrees in their final poll (and even that final post-debate PA poll only had HRC up by 5 with FIFTEEN PERCENT undecided - yikes).

This final post-debate PA poll has weightings that match what 2016 was and Biden still shows up 7 (and crucially over 50%) and with only five percent undecided.

It's as good a spot as Dems could hope to be in, in that crucial state , with regard to that particular pollster, as one might reasonably hope for...

That 2016 poll had Hillary at 46%, and she ended up getting 47.6%.

[tennbengal]

Yup - the 15% undecided was a huge red flag. 5% undecided this year in that poll is a much better place for the Dems to be, given the top line.

There's also this from PA:

[A_B]

Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...

How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time

But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.

And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.

I pray that this is right.

Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.

What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.

(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)

Plus the polls had been up and down and we had that major shift with the Comey letter. The Biden-Trump polling and Trump’s net approval have been pretty steady for a long time.

And Trump is running with his time as President on the record instead of just theoreticals. That matters.

[Steve of phpBB]

Yup - the 15% undecided was a huge red flag. 5% undecided this year in that poll is a much better place for the Dems to be, given the top line.

There's also this from PA:

We need massive storms to hit Central PA on November 3.

[Johnnie]

My wife voted early today. She waited in line for an hour. The person she made small talk with in front of her was completely scared by the post office being fucked with and wanted to vote in person.

She also told me that people were recording the polling station. Outside of that no one messed with her. But I'm also sure she wasn't voting in a majority Latino section of the city either.

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-m ... the-polls/