“Wiki, directing to the article where she gives this dipshit idea” wrote:In the wake of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, Kimberley Strassel suggested teachers could be equipped with stun grenades to protect their students.
2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Moderators: Shirley, Sabo, brian, rass, DaveInSeattle
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Consider the source:
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Number 45 is Paul Konerko with 439.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Borat 2 appears to have been released a day early.
I felt aswirl with warm secretions.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Link: Hunter Biden once told a hostess at Mikimoto’s he was Joe Biden’s son to skip the 45 minute wait line
psunate: “Fuck holy fuck jesus christ fuck shit fuck it’s over it’s so over fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck paterno had no way of knowing ...”
psunate: “Fuck holy fuck jesus christ fuck shit fuck it’s over it’s so over fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck paterno had no way of knowing ...”
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
My stress is thru the roof and I have an escape plan. I’m not sure how some of you guys are doing it.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Niiiiccceee. I saw someone tweet about a 9 pm group watch.
Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
C’mon people! NFC East football is on!govmentchedda wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:14 pmNiiiiccceee. I saw someone tweet about a 9 pm group watch.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Biden just smoked him on the corruption question.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Turned it off, Trump continues to be allowed to tell lie after lie after lie and nobody calls him out..
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
You're going to have the best healthcare ever that you're going to forget you don't have healthcare.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
So the first thing Biden says when asked what he’d do if Obamacare is struck down is “I’m gonna pass a public option.”
(Which of course doesn’t actually answer the particular question, and maybe it’s more of his serial lying, but he certainly seems committed to it.)
(Which of course doesn’t actually answer the particular question, and maybe it’s more of his serial lying, but he certainly seems committed to it.)
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”
These corporate centrists are terrible.
These corporate centrists are terrible.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Steve it’s ok to be a republican just as long as you hate trump. Lean in.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:13 pm Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”
These corporate centrists are terrible.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
This is my face like 65% of the day:
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Don't tell psunate.DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:17 pmAnd...her opinion piece has been debunked by...wait for it...the news side of...wait for it...the Wall Street Journal.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Hello from PA this AM:
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
soo-nah-tay
Noli Timere Messorem
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Not empirical in any way, but I’m up here in NE PA, solidly in Pennsylvania’s Red T. I’ve seen Biden paraphernalia only slightly less than Trump, basically 55-45 Trump. If he’s only that level here, then he’s got no chance taking PA is if Philly and Pittsburgh city come out strong.
I’ll talk to you guys in a bit. I have to go get married.
I’ll talk to you guys in a bit. I have to go get married.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Number 45 is Paul Konerko with 439.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Shit, talk about burying the lede! L-jam's pregnant, guys!
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Congrats!L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:23 am Not empirical in any way, but I’m up here in NE PA, solidly in Pennsylvania’s Red T. I’ve seen Biden paraphernalia only slightly less than Trump, basically 55-45 Trump. If he’s only that level here, then he’s got no chance taking PA is if Philly and Pittsburgh city come out strong.
I’ll talk to you guys in a bit. I have to go get married.
Also, more context for Muhlenberg - check out the undecideds available in 2016 compared to now - and where Biden's top number is now compared to Clinton:
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
My review of Borat 2's first hour or so (got tired and turned it off right as attention turned to Rudy), is that it must be really hard to build plot around the crazy shit that he gets people to do. Some of the overt stuff is laugh out loud funny, and he has a few quick responses in conversation that are subtly hilarious, but a lot of the plot development isn't that great.
Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Sure, but PSUNate posted a poll from MAGA Pollski Institute with a website based in Novgorod Russia showed Trump even, so I am going to shit my pants.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
I noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:13 pm Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”
These corporate centrists are terrible.
“All I'm sayin' is, he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.”
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
And.... polls are bullshit. I don’t think it’s a 7 point edge especially with the way Trump got support in the Central and Western part of PA.The Sybian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:25 amSure, but PSUNate posted a poll from MAGA Pollski Institute with a website based in Novgorod Russia showed Trump even, so I am going to shit my pants.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Anyways if anyone cares about this.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...
How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time
How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time
I pray that this is right.But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.
And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.
"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
So then why did you keep posting polls from organizations nobody has ever heard of showing Trump doing better than every known reputable poll?
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Didn’t realize I needed to. The Nation and a red-rose tweeter are complaining about Dems. Dog bites man.DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:09 amI noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:13 pm Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”
These corporate centrists are terrible.
Specifically, Biden doesn’t favor a fracking ban. But he apparently promotes transitioning off fossil fuels. I’m ok with that. (Ecstatic that he said the second part out loud; I hope his taking such a clearly progressive stance doesn’t cost him.)
Barrett? The Rs have a majority. She’s getting confirmed.
You know how you prevent that? You make sure Dems beat Rs. You don’t vote for the Green Party and you shame the fuck out of people who do.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Pruitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:16 pm Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...
How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time
I pray that this is right.But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.
And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.
What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.
(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
The Oil & Gas industry are part of the larger energy sector. They’re all heavily invested in wind turbines, solar panels, and other alternative energy sources.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmDidn’t realize I needed to. The Nation and a red-rose tweeter are complaining about Dems. Dog bites man.DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:09 amI noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:13 pm Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”
These corporate centrists are terrible.
Specifically, Biden doesn’t favor a fracking ban. But he apparently promotes transitioning off fossil fuels. I’m ok with that. (Ecstatic that he said the second part out loud; I hope his taking such a clearly progressive stance doesn’t cost him.)
Barrett? The Rs have a majority. She’s getting confirmed.
You know how you prevent that? You make sure Dems beat Rs. You don’t vote for the Green Party and you shame the fuck out of people who do.
Biden could’ve worded it better by talking about net job growth in the energy sector, etc. But I agree that quiet part needs to be said out loud. The debate stage may not have been the best place to espouse it.
Noli Timere Messorem
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
So I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmWhat happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
There's definitely a part of the populace that will do what your last sentence states. I am hopeful, however, that a bunch of the people who held their nose and voted for him in 2016 will not do so this time with a less-polarizing candidate and at least even that out.mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:17 pmSo I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmWhat happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.
But increased turnout (538 is predicting over 20 million plus extra votes) is typically a good thing for the Blue side.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Plus the polls had been up and down and we had that major shift with the Comey letter. The Biden-Trump polling and Trump’s net approval have been pretty steady for a long time.Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmPruitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:16 pm Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...
How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time
I pray that this is right.But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.
And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.
(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
The notion of the "shy trump voter" as being the reason for polls to have been off at state level has been debunked. The bigger issue is the weighting of the polls over-stated percentage of voters with college degrees versus those without. Was particularly a problem in the WI/MI/PA polling. It was like 10% off on that score. The polling now is in line with 2016 - so unless even less college degree voters turn out (unlikely given the motivation now) - the polling doesn't have that same error baked in. In fact, it may be under-stating the % of college degree votes this time around. All of which is to say, of course you shouldn't take polling to the bank, but there is good reason to have some hope that Biden is in relatively good shape in some important states (WI, MI, PA, maybe even NC and AZ).mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:17 pmSo I think this is right, but I'm wondering how accurate 2020 polling actually is. Not all of Trump's votes are loud and proud like the MAGA dipshits; I would assume that's probably the minority, especially true in swing states? What percentage would be embarrassed to have everyone they be aware they're voted for him but are planning to do so anyway?Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmWhat happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Mr. D- here's what I was trying to get at - see this from Cohn this AM as to Muhlenberg:
Basically - their weighting was too heavy on college degrees in their final poll (and even that final post-debate PA poll only had HRC up by 5 with FIFTEEN PERCENT undecided - yikes).
This final post-debate PA poll has weightings that match what 2016 was and Biden still shows up 7 (and crucially over 50%) and with only five percent undecided.
It's as good a spot as Dems could hope to be in, in that crucial state , with regard to that particular pollster, as one might reasonably hope for...
Basically - their weighting was too heavy on college degrees in their final poll (and even that final post-debate PA poll only had HRC up by 5 with FIFTEEN PERCENT undecided - yikes).
This final post-debate PA poll has weightings that match what 2016 was and Biden still shows up 7 (and crucially over 50%) and with only five percent undecided.
It's as good a spot as Dems could hope to be in, in that crucial state , with regard to that particular pollster, as one might reasonably hope for...
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
That 2016 poll had Hillary at 46%, and she ended up getting 47.6%.tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:50 pm Mr. D- here's what I was trying to get at - see this from Cohn this AM as to Muhlenberg:
Basically - their weighting was too heavy on college degrees in their final poll (and even that final post-debate PA poll only had HRC up by 5 with FIFTEEN PERCENT undecided - yikes).
This final post-debate PA poll has weightings that match what 2016 was and Biden still shows up 7 (and crucially over 50%) and with only five percent undecided.
It's as good a spot as Dems could hope to be in, in that crucial state , with regard to that particular pollster, as one might reasonably hope for...
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
Yup - the 15% undecided was a huge red flag. 5% undecided this year in that poll is a much better place for the Dems to be, given the top line.
There's also this from PA:
There's also this from PA:
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
And Trump is running with his time as President on the record instead of just theoreticals. That matters.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:44 pmPlus the polls had been up and down and we had that major shift with the Comey letter. The Biden-Trump polling and Trump’s net approval have been pretty steady for a long time.Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pmPruitt wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:16 pm Poll watching had been making me antsy - until my wife sent me this...
How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time
I pray that this is right.But 2016's error wouldn't be enough to overcome Biden's lead in Arizona, Florida or Georgia. Without those states, Trump can't win the White House.
And the changes pollsters have made since 2016 make it difficult to compare polls in this campaign to polls in the previous campaign. If pollsters were still failing to include enough non-college graduates in their samples today, Biden's apparent polling lead in the Midwest might be even greater.What happened in 2016 wasn't REALLY an issue with the polling, it was with the punditry and the populace. Just about everyone ignored how close things actually were, walked around in disbelief that this clown had a shot, so a bunch of people stayed home or voted protest/3rd party.Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.
(Which is why nate's sky is falling bullshit is just that.)
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
We need massive storms to hit Central PA on November 3.tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:00 pm Yup - the 15% undecided was a huge red flag. 5% undecided this year in that poll is a much better place for the Dems to be, given the top line.
There's also this from PA:
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Re: 2020 Presidential Election: Joe Biden vs Whoever the Republicans Nominate
My wife voted early today. She waited in line for an hour. The person she made small talk with in front of her was completely scared by the post office being fucked with and wanted to vote in person.
She also told me that people were recording the polling station. Outside of that no one messed with her. But I'm also sure she wasn't voting in a majority Latino section of the city either.
https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-m ... the-polls/
She also told me that people were recording the polling station. Outside of that no one messed with her. But I'm also sure she wasn't voting in a majority Latino section of the city either.
https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-m ... the-polls/
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.