The Swamp

In fact, I'll save you some trouble on election day. In Michigan, follow the returns in Macomb County (northern suburban Detroit) and Kent County (Grand Rapids). If Biden is leading or even tied in either/both, then Trump has 0 percent chance of winning MI.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:29 pm Polls are small sample size, I think Trump will win Pa and Michigan.. Michigan seems like people there are tired of the Dem Governor, and I live in Pa and the Western and Central part of the state are pretty much all Trump. He won huge in 2016. I do believe Allegheny County where Pittsburgh is was for Clinton, but it was pretty close. Philly area maybe where Biden gets his votes as I don't go out there much.

I am worried about Florida. They have Repubs in line to cheat just like 2000. Ohio also will probably go to Trump.

Biden may get Texas, Beto O' Rourke has been doing work for Joe in Texas. I still don't see it going blue until it gets a Dem Governor.

Wisky, Minny will be Biden's.. Iowa may also be Biden's, especially with the way Greenfield is polling against Ernst.

JFC. Yes, of course polls are a small sample size. You don’t think pollsters know that? That’s why they go to such great lengths to make their samples representative - and why you should rely on polling averages over any one poll.

I’m amazed - but also curious as hell - that you think Trump is likely to win states where he’s eight points behind in the polls, but could possibly lose TX and IA, where he’s either tied or slightly ahead.

"Polls are small sample sizes, so I'd like to insert my personal (sample size: 1) beliefs instead."

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:54 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:29 pm Polls are small sample size, I think Trump will win Pa and Michigan.. Michigan seems like people there are tired of the Dem Governor, and I live in Pa and the Western and Central part of the state are pretty much all Trump. He won huge in 2016. I do believe Allegheny County where Pittsburgh is was for Clinton, but it was pretty close. Philly area maybe where Biden gets his votes as I don't go out there much.

I am worried about Florida. They have Repubs in line to cheat just like 2000. Ohio also will probably go to Trump.

Biden may get Texas, Beto O' Rourke has been doing work for Joe in Texas. I still don't see it going blue until it gets a Dem Governor.

Wisky, Minny will be Biden's.. Iowa may also be Biden's, especially with the way Greenfield is polling against Ernst.

JFC. Yes, of course polls are a small sample size. You don’t think pollsters know that? That’s why they go to such great lengths to make their samples representative - and why you should rely on polling averages over any one poll.

I’m amazed - but also curious as hell - that you think Trump is likely to win states where he’s eight points behind in the polls, but could possibly lose TX and IA, where he’s either tied or slightly ahead.

I gave you reasons and it's my opinion.. In Michigan, it's obvious people there are not in favor of the democratic governor. I think that will hurt Biden.

Texas had had a influx of California people moving there over the past 4-6 years, also Beto is doing some heavy campaigning for Biden in Western part of the state and Harris County is pretty much a Biden win, no matter how much they try to eliminate votes with one drop box.

Find the last polling on Whitmer's favorable/unfavorable ratings.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:12 pm In Michigan, it's obvious people there are not in favor of the democratic governor.

'People' who live in vacuum store basements

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:17 pm Find the last polling on Whitmer's favorable/unfavorable ratings.

This. And explain why voters being annoyed with Whitmer will cause them to vote for Trump ... and also why those people are still telling pollsters they’ll vote for Biden.

Polls in Texas have shown that those who are moving towards Democrats are majority native Texan.

I'd like to think that a governor who was the target of a kidnapping plot by terrorists would be seen in a more sympathetic light at the moment. I don't have the numbers to back it up, however.

Her last rating was 49% and that was down from 51%

But again, small sample size. Ton of people posting this stuff to her FB and Twitter.

Well, it's hard to argue with that logic? She has Trumpers commenting on her social media posts? That obviously spells doom for Biden.

A couple quotes from an article on Oct 10:

Some Republicans on Friday worried Trump’s reaction would hurt him in a state he’s trying desperately to win on Nov. 3. And Michigan Republicans critical of Trump expressed disbelief at state GOP leaders’ failure to call out, or even mildly chide, Trump.

“I’m astounded in the last 24 hours no new Republican has come out and renounced Trump’s rhetoric,” said Jeff Timmer, a onetime Republican strategist who has distanced himself from the party since Trump’s election. “Nobody has dared stick their head out.”

----

Whitmer’s approval rating has been running well ahead of Trump’s in the state. A majority in Michigan approve of her performance, a measure that has increased steadily with her handling of the pandemic. Meanwhile, Trump’s has been stuck well under 50%, while his campaign has signaled worry about carrying the state a second time, campaign aides have said privately.

----

Trump is facing strong headwinds in Oakland County, once the GOP stronghold and childhood home of mainstream Republicans such as Mitt Romney. But the flow of younger, more racially diverse families into the county has changed its political complexion. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the county, an upscale suburb neighboring Detroit to the northwest.

I mean, I'd probably look at some facts as opposed to what some guy who won't be legally voting in Michigan tweets about it.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:10 pm A couple quotes from an article on Oct 10:

Some Republicans on Friday worried Trump’s reaction would hurt him in a state he’s trying desperately to win on Nov. 3. And Michigan Republicans critical of Trump expressed disbelief at state GOP leaders’ failure to call out, or even mildly chide, Trump.

“I’m astounded in the last 24 hours no new Republican has come out and renounced Trump’s rhetoric,” said Jeff Timmer, a onetime Republican strategist who has distanced himself from the party since Trump’s election. “Nobody has dared stick their head out.”

----

Whitmer’s approval rating has been running well ahead of Trump’s in the state. A majority in Michigan approve of her performance, a measure that has increased steadily with her handling of the pandemic. Meanwhile, Trump’s has been stuck well under 50%, while his campaign has signaled worry about carrying the state a second time, campaign aides have said privately.

----

Trump is facing strong headwinds in Oakland County, once the GOP stronghold and childhood home of mainstream Republicans such as Mitt Romney. But the flow of younger, more racially diverse families into the county has changed its political complexion. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the county, an upscale suburb neighboring Detroit to the northwest.

I mean, I'd probably look at some facts as opposed to what some guy who won't be legally voting in Michigan tweets about it.

That guy is a Bears fan too, so obviously an idiot.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:08 pm Well, it's hard to argue with that logic? She has Trumpers commenting on her social media posts? That obviously spells doom for Biden.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:08 pm Well, it's hard to argue with that logic? She has Trumpers commenting on her social media posts? That obviously spells doom for Biden.

"spells" being the ironic word there.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:10 pm
I mean, I'd probably look at some facts as opposed to what some guy who won't be legally voting in Michigan tweets about it.

this made me remember that I'm blocked on the tweeter by Schilling

What, do you expect them to just blindly comply in the name of law and order?

All you victim libz make me sick. President Trump btw is treated worse than any other President in US history and is opposed at every turn, how can you expect him to get anything done?

All rights were taken away, btw? Seems like they were clearly allowed to accumulate guns. Were they forced to quarter British soldiers?

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:27 pmthis made me remember that I'm blocked on the tweeter by Schilling

Same.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:27 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:10 pm
I mean, I'd probably look at some facts as opposed to what some guy who won't be legally voting in Michigan tweets about it.

this made me remember that I'm blocked on the tweeter by Schilling

Fucking liberal elite media. Bragger.

elite like flacco

So what do you guys think fo this? Is this an endorsement by Aikman for Biden or a Dig... Aikman has been a huge Republican in the past.

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:08 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:27 pmthis made me remember that I'm blocked on the tweeter by Schilling

Same.

Schilling hates auto racing?

Guys, Biden doesn't appear to be as progressive as others in his party.

This is from that article, which raises questions for me why they would think it's as close as they claim:

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger
Urban voters prefer Biden by nearly a 28-point margin, the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds. Rural voters back Trump by almost a 30-point margin. That's similar to 2016's divide.

Yet the suburbs may be the big difference this year. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 50.5% to 42%. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.

That explains why Trump made a blunt appeal to suburban voters — particularly suburban women — while campaigning in Pennsylvania last week. "Suburban women, will you please like me? Please. Please. I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?"

Trump was referring to a fair-housing regulation adopted by President Obama's administration and later rolled back by Trump. The rule altered criteria for awarding federal funds to overcome historic patterns of segregation.

Which doesn't seem to jive. If we're going by the data HUD and Census collected in the 2017 American Housing Survey, 52 percent of U.S. households describe their neighborhood as suburban, 27 percent describe their neighborhood as urban, and 21 percent describe their neighborhood as rural.

If Urban voters (27% of households) back Biden by 28 points, and Suburban voters (52% of households) back Biden by 8.5 points, even a 30% bump in rural (21% of households) wouldn't close the gap by 2 points overall.

P.D.X. wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:55 am Guys, Biden doesn't appear to be as progressive as others in his party.

And it's not really a fair comparison.

Two weeks before an election, you're always going to get at least 40 percent supporting one candidate. Biden consistently being up by 9 or 10 fucking points over a period of weeks, with the other candidate being down at that 40-percent number, means that Biden is crazy popular. Probably more popular than any presidential candidate since Reagan? (I can't remember if Obama was polling over 50 percent this late in the game. He won by "only" seven though.)

More importantly - aren't those tweets evidence that Biden's platform is progressive? At least in part?

Hell, that tweet pointed out that the Covid relief and public option are merely the "most" progressive parts of Biden's platform. So clearly there are other progressive parts as well.

Who knew?

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:53 am

Meg Whitman sucks so, so much (ran Hewlett Packard into the ground while flailing around California's political circles). John Kasich defunded Planned Parenthood.

Shit like this is why Biden gets so much grief.

Weird stance taken by the most progressive presidential candidate in the history of the world.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Cool, cool, cool.

That story is like three weeks old and he said in during the debate and the comment was more or less taken out of context, but other than that...

brian wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:13 am

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Cool, cool, cool.

That story is like three weeks old and he said in during the debate and the comment was more or less taken out of context, but other than that...

I don't think trying to fall back on "shouldn't appoint a justice during an election year" is an effective strategy against the Republican party. But, I suppose if you're so progressive, you're pretty close to them...

There's literally nothing Biden can say or do to stop the Republicans from ramming through Barrett, so there's no edge in potentially pissing off women by going for her throat. Biden's already said he's open to the idea of packing the court, so I'm not going to sweat him going to the middle on Barrett specifically.

brian wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:13 am

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am Cool, cool, cool.

That story is like three weeks old and he said in during the debate and the comment was more or less taken out of context, but other than that...

And also he's saying over and over that she shouldn't be confirmed, but yeah, otherwise that citation to a Newsweek blurb is right on.

The story about possible Republican nominations is (i) thin, (ii) a very shrewd leak, and (iii) if true, and if it happens, consistent with American tradition.

The story appears to be basically this:

Nevertheless, one person close to the Biden transition said it remains “a priority to have options” from different parts of the ideological spectrum for the former vice president to consider.

That person and another official familiar with the transition deliberations confirmed to POLITICO that Biden staffers are analyzing some Republicans’ backgrounds and resumes as they compile shortlists of candidates for high-profile Cabinet positions. The goal is to have some GOP options among the finalists that Biden would choose from after the election.

Two unnamed people "close to" and "familiar with" the transition. Not Joe Biden. Talking about what "staffers" are doing. Saying that they are "analyzing some Republicans' backgrounds and resumes."

So this is not exactly Biden saying he's going to cut the minimum wage.

But there's a long tradition of having one or two cabinet secretaries who are from the opposing party. Even George W Fucking Bush did it. And we are in at least two national emergencies, where in a lot of countries, they would set up a unity government. So if naming John Kasich as Secretary of Transportation to help unify the country, where doing so would not compromise progressive goals at all (which how could it, if Biden isn't even progressive and has no progressive agenda?), where's the harm?

Yes, Kasich is a horrible insane nutjob on abortion. Is there any indication that Biden is going to appoint him to a position where that issue is relevant?

I just got an e-mail with this headline from the RNC:


"The Real Joe: A Business Built On The Family Name

Despite Branding Himself As “Middle-Class Joe,” Biden’s Family Has Spent Decades Profiting Off Of The Family Name And Proximity To Power"

Taking out the "middle-class" branding, wtf?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:01 pmYes, Kasich is a horrible insane nutjob on abortion. Is there any indication that Biden is going to appoint him to a position where that issue is relevant?

Do you not question why that ideology isn't disqualifying?

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:13 am Weird stance taken by the most progressive presidential candidate in the history of the world.

Just in this country.

Seriously, dude, wasn't it like two hours ago you posted a tweet talking about Biden's progressive positions - and how popular they were?

Anyway, if you think Biden is not running on the most progressive platform for a major party presidential candidate in US history, who has? Is he in the top three? Five? Ten?

Plus, I'm curious where you get your information about how progressive or non-progressive Biden or his platform are. The reason I ask is that y'all spent months telling us that Biden had suffered this massive cognitive decline, to the point where he couldn't put a coherent sentence together. And fuck me, I believed you. I spent months, literally months, fearing what I'd see if I actually watched Biden speak.

That turned out to be wrong. I don't think you folks were lying. So I wonder what sources you were relying on back then, and if you are relying on the same ones to inform your opinions as to Biden's progressiveness or lack thereof.

Also, for what it's worth, I listened to a podcast last week that addressed Biden's platform. Thirty hours on the road, why the hell not. His platform appears to be progressive as hell - this is clearly not just a matter of bunting 3% fewer times.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t ... 0494967718