The Swamp

Not the greatest week last week (7-9 against the spread if I were betting after going 14-2 in week 1), but I'mma keep posting anyway.

Week 3 guesses:
Survivor pick is tentatively LA Chargers, which I don't love and Justin Herbert was nowhere near as good as you'd think based on the reaction he got on the Twitters but it's still a good matchup and has an East Coast team going across the country. SF would be my second choice even with Mullens but that's still not ideal with a second straight east coast game (even if they stayed in NJ), and the Steelers would probably be third choice. Also like Buffalo.

Horse's Survivor Rules:

1. No consensus pick(s): Eliminates IND
2. NEVER CHOOSE LIONS GAMES: Eliminates DET always and AZ this week

So...I am in two different survivor leagues and my picks in those leagues are....Indy and Arizona.

Now strongly re-considering.

Never pick the Lions or against the Lions.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:55 pm Never pick the Lions or against the Lions.

They will find you and fuck you. Bet on them, bet against them, doesn't really matter.

Switched the Cardinals to the Steelers.

Left the Colts.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:00 pm So...I am in two different survivor leagues and my picks in those leagues are....Indy and Arizona.

Now strongly re-considering.

I don't want to be responsible when those teams win and mine lose - these are just my personal rules, which are designed not to do well with your picks, but instead to give you the best chance of winning. There are a lot of early exits.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:43 pm Switched the Cardinals to the Steelers.

Left the Colts.

You're putting the Horse on the spot, man!

The Colts get to be the survivor consensus pick twice in the first three weeks? Fucking Jets.

rass wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:54 pm The Colts get to be the survivor consensus pick twice in the first three weeks? Fucking Jets.

Forgot about that. That's one where the rule came through. Though I wouldn't have passed on a chance to bet against the Jets in week 1 anyway.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:44 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:43 pm Switched the Cardinals to the Steelers.

Left the Colts.

You're putting the Horse on the spot, man!

If JuJu is out I am switching back.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:42 pm

brian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:55 pm Never pick the Lions or against the Lions.

They will find you and fuck you. Bet on them, bet against them, doesn't really matter.

Looks like the over may not be a bad option where they're involved.

If you’re not taking the Colts now, the only other really good game is Week 6 against Cincinnati, and if Burrow is rounding into form by then that’s hardly a gimme. Especially since there is also Pitt hosting the Browns and the Chargers hosting the fucking Jets In Week 6 as well.

Who are these guys dressed as Dolphins?

The MIAMI tramp stamps on the Dolphins’ pants are something

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:39 pm If you’re not taking the Colts now, the only other really good game is Week 6 against Cincinnati, and if Burrow is rounding into form by then that’s hardly a gimme. Especially since there is also Pitt hosting the Browns and the Chargers hosting the fucking Jets In Week 6 as well.

Oh yeah - Horse rule #3: Don't save teams or worry about future schedules. Just survive this week.

If the Colts lose this week, half your league is gone. Just like week 1. Most leagues probably don't get anywhere near week 16 and even if they do, you don't have to take the Colts at any point.

Also the later in the season the clearer it is who is good and who is not good.

I guess it boils down to this as far as I'm concerned...how do you plan on winning if you take the same team as everyone else, and how do you win week 13 if you lose during week 5? And also how do you win if you pick a game with the Lions involved and you get penetrated in every orifice for 3 hours?

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:41 amOh yeah - Horse rule #3: Don't save teams or worry about future schedules. Just survive this week.

Doesn't this contradict not going with the consensus if the consensus pick is the one you love?

GP, I totally hear you and I only rarely take the consensus pick. For me to take the consensus there has to be a situation where I don't see an obvious pick.

Although I do admit you make some good points backing San Diego this week. As loath I am to take a guy making his second career start I have trouble seeing a reality where Teddy Bridgewater beats a competent offense without CMC.

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:49 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:41 amOh yeah - Horse rule #3: Don't save teams or worry about future schedules. Just survive this week.

Doesn't this contradict not going with the consensus if the consensus pick is the one you love?

In a vacuum, sure. But it's not a vacuum. You want to survive the week without taking the same picks everyone else is taking because you want to beat everyone else.

These are my rules, if your goal is to do well and finish 5th and win $0 then by all means take the consensus picks every week. Actually don't because you already lost week 1 if you did and you're eliminated.

Help me out. Who was the Week 1 consensus that KO'd everybody? I'm not asking to be a prick.

I do remember the first year I did Survivor Houston beat a good Miami team Week 1 and killed half the competition. Thankfully I wasn't one of them.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:54 am GP, I totally hear you and I only rarely take the consensus pick. For me to take the consensus there has to be a situation where I don't see an obvious pick.

Although I do admit you make some good points backing San Diego this week. As loath I am to take a guy making his second career start I have trouble seeing a reality where Teddy Bridgewater beats a competent offense without CMC.

Yeah these are just my personal rules. If you really really think IND is easily the best option then ride with them, you just shouldn't make a habit out of it.

Much of this is me not seeing Indianapolis as the only clear selection this week - I could absolutely see them winning.


I've won two 100+ person leagues with this strategy, avoiding picking against JAX in 2013 and avoiding the week 2 bloodbath in 2015. Many other years I'm out early. But I'm only concerned with winning, not just with doing well. I think that's the proper way to look at winner-take-all competitions like survivor pools.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:58 am Help me out. Who was the Week 1 consensus that KO'd everybody? I'm not asking to be a prick.

I do remember the first year I did Survivor Houston beat a good Miami team Week 1 and killed half the competition. Thankfully I wasn't one of them.

Colts over Jags was week 1 consensus as far as I remember.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:54 amIn a vacuum, sure. But it's not a vacuum. You want to survive the week without taking the same picks everyone else is taking because you want to beat everyone else.

These are my rules, if your goal is to do well and finish 5th and win $0 then by all means take the consensus picks every week. Actually don't because you already lost week 1 if you did and you're eliminated.

Actually Week 1 I took ... [goes to look at week 1 results] ... Washington.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:58 am

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:58 am Help me out. Who was the Week 1 consensus that KO'd everybody? I'm not asking to be a prick.

I do remember the first year I did Survivor Houston beat a good Miami team Week 1 and killed half the competition. Thankfully I wasn't one of them.

Colts over Jags was week 1 consensus as far as I remember.

See, I never take road teams. That's why I didn't even look at that game.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:01 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:58 am

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:58 am Help me out. Who was the Week 1 consensus that KO'd everybody? I'm not asking to be a prick.

I do remember the first year I did Survivor Houston beat a good Miami team Week 1 and killed half the competition. Thankfully I wasn't one of them.

Colts over Jags was week 1 consensus as far as I remember.

See, I never take road teams. That's why I didn't even look at that game.

I try to avoid them but later in the season it becomes more difficult.

Basically my 3rd rule is just don't save teams. Things change during the season, a team has to sign Blake Bortles mid-season because their starter got hurt or something, etc etc

I switched to the Colts at the last minute. The team I originally had hasn't even been mentioned yet so that's either great or terrible according to the Ten Survivor Pool Commandments.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:51 pm Who are these guys dressed as Dolphins?

That Jags defence is going to make a lot of QBs look like Mahomes.

Ryan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:53 am I switched to the Colts at the last minute. The team I originally had hasn't even been mentioned yet so that's either great or terrible according to the Ten Survivor Pool Commandments.

Who did you have?

Philly

I don't think it's a bad pick. They should win and nobody else is going to have them.

See, I gave Philly some thought, but then I started thinking the game theory involved in my larger pool (obviously Philly-based). I thought bigger fans of them would have jumped off the bandwagon and gave up on them, but then I thought a different larger group would just ride-or-die with them and said "either I take them now, or both my Survivor and my rooting interest goes down."

Those of you outside New England, do you guys have similar game theory thought experiments in when to take the local team?

I try to avoid taking the Steelers unless I'm really, really confident in them that particular week.

I'm the same way. The Eagles never knocked me out, so I only take an uber-obvious win with them. I don't need the extra agita.

I try to avoid the bengals because , oh, wait.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:26 pm I try to avoid the bengals because , oh, wait.

That's a good one though - you could theoretically pick against them 13 times. Do you try to avoid their games entirely?

I used subjective numbers to get this thing going, but today I'm going to start trying to move it to actual numbers. Or at least mostly actual numbers.

The Lions rule is there for a reason but I may have to ignore it this week (and it's basically just a fun anecdotal rule while the others are actually geared towards winning a league). Arizona should beat the absolute shit out of the Lions...they've faced two of the top 5 defenses so far this year. The Lions meanwhile are 29th and getting absolutely roasted. They somehow face the 2nd fewest plays per drive of any defense yet allow scores on 50% of them.

(I say somehow but the reason is "Mitch Trubisky").


It's a complete statistical mismatch - Cardinals have been better (statistically) than I think people realize and the Lions have somehow actually been worse. I don't think ATL over CHI is a bad pick either. Gotta think about this. Justin Herbert is a meltdown waiting to happen.

Lions have a lot of injuries too though if Golladay comes back Sunday (he's 50/50 I guess?) then that changes things some.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:10 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:26 pm I try to avoid the bengals because , oh, wait.

That's a good one though - you could theoretically pick against them 13 times. Do you try to avoid their games entirely?

I meant, avoid picking them to win.

And, with Burrow, they are an uncomfortable pick to lose in a lot of games. Ravens over Bengals should be easy. Steelers. Beyond that? Not so much.

brian wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:54 pm Lions have a lot of injuries too though if Golladay comes back Sunday (he's 50/50 I guess?) then that changes things some.

They may win and Golladay may go off but Kenny Golladay is not the difference between a huge statistical mismatch and a close game.

I have to do some research on injury effects but for most players they are smaller than people would think, though I've seen the difference that injuries to uber-important players can make. Like, Ryan Shazier made the entire Steelers defense go (moreso even than Polamalu), and it didn't work without him. Justin Smith made the 2011 49ers pass rush a thing by himself. And obviously Mike Furrey was the engine that drove the 2008 Detroit Lions.