The Swamp

I've been revamping my models to use actual stats and so I didn't have anything for last week. Week 3 would have been bad.

But it at least makes random numbers now so here's my guesses, with way too many predicted blowouts:
Some of these I don't trust at all - Steelers/Eagles and DAL/NYG for instance. Though I did test it on last week's games and it got some really close:
Part of this is self-fulfilling as I updated the spreadsheets and so 1/4 of the stats were from the actual games I was trying to predict in hindsight, however it didn't have Monday games in so those numbers are what it would have given me had it been completed yesterday. I did predict Cincinnati to tie in week 3 on a quick calc just based on PFF-type numbers, and I wish I posted it here. That would have been boss.

Right now I'm not taking into account injuries or home field, since it seems like home field barely even matters this year. Favorite bet is Carolina, who have been pretty good statistically even though everyone still thinks they suck. While I don't trust the Giants, they've played a murderer's row of a schedule and I'm trying to figure out the right boosts to give for that.

What jumped out at me is your model got the points onslaught in the Dallas/ Cleveland game right.

Part of that is that the stats for that game were included in the predictions, but it does seem like it might be easier to predict over/unders than actual scores.

Stephen Gilmore apparently has COVID.

So, this is going to get interesting.

rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 am

My God the replies in that tweet.

Dont think its that easy to get COVID. A quick outside bro hug with Mahomes probably not too much risk. Riding with him on a plane feels way higher risk.

I think the bigger issue is that whatever tests the NFL used after Cam got sick meant nothing because all Patriots players tested negative. So hey! Play football.

Belichick doubled up on his masks and all the players that opted out at the beginning of the season look like geniuses.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:04 am I think the bigger issue is that whatever tests the NFL used after Cam got sick meant nothing because all Patriots players tested negative. So hey! Play football.

yeah, the tests can't figure out is someone is in the incubation period or not

Its almost like that's why those serious about mitigating the spread quarantine if they're exposed to someone positive and not only if they're positive themselves.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:25 am Its almost like that's why those serious about mitigating the spread quarantine if they're exposed to someone positive and not only if they're positive themselves.

I was honestly stunned that there was no directive from the NFL that the Chiefs and Patriots players don't meet together on the field after the game. I was saying that shit out loud to my TV when it happened.

I mean, there's no way New England should have been playing at all, right? Cam Newton had contact with teammates.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:28 am I mean, there's no way New England should have been playing at all, right? Cam Newton had contact with teammates.

That's a bingo!

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:28 am I mean, there's no way New England should have been playing at all, right? Cam Newton had contact with teammates.

of course. but when the leaders of our government aren't following proper protocols, why should the NFL?

(the question is of course in jest, but the point of looking to the NFL to do the right thing really isn't)

Dallas is the consensus survivor pick this week...I want to be socially distanced from that choice

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:07 am Dallas is the consensus survivor pick this week...I want to be socially distanced from that choice

I'm in total agreement with you on there. There are two other games I'd take before that one, mainly because _allas' _efense can make any team look competent.

BTW here's a simpler model that just compares offenses v. defenses and modifies them pretty strongly based on strength of opponent.

So I have one method that predicts the Eagles will win and another that predicts they will get blown out. Similar with SF in reverse. They were that shitty on Sunday.

I guess predicting a tie isn't that special if it predicts two more this week.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:18 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:07 am Dallas is the consensus survivor pick this week...I want to be socially distanced from that choice

I'm in total agreement with you on there. There are two other games I'd take before that one, mainly because _allas' _efense can make any team look competent.

Yeah combined with NYG facing a gauntlet so far it's ripe to knock people out.


The guy that runs the pool I'm in treats Dallas the way I treat Detroit. He says they have easily knocked out the most people over the years.

Steelers are my pick this week.

And the NFL won't call the season until the Bills are 10-3 or something. Just the way it is destined to play out.

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:22 am Steelers are my pick this week.

And the NFL won't call the season until the Bills are 10-3 or something. Just the way it is destined to play out.

They'd possibly be mine if I weren't a yinzer. That game scares me. I liked them to beat Houston because, well, in my anecdotal experience that's just one they win. This is one they lose.

Titans should be forced to forfeit the rest of their games this season. Not even joking. At best, they should be forced to lose a first-round pick next two years.

Pruitt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:22 am Steelers are my pick this week.

And the NFL won't call the season until the Bills are 10-3 or something. Just the way it is destined to play out.

If that ain't the truth.

With Gilmore, Hurst, and more Titans now testing positive, how long until the season completely implodes?

(My money-league fantasy team is 4-0, so I know it is inevitable.)

The NFL did it to themselves. They could've put out plans that would be options, but they didn't want to look weak in front of nature. Someone I can't recall suggested that they could've had league-wide byes every four weeks or so, and then any games that had to be put on hold could've used those weeks as replacements (this week, for example, would've been the leaguewide bye, and the NE-KC and PIT-TEN games could've been rescheduled here).

I think I'm with everyone else here that I have a total love-hate relationship with the NFL.

Just saw somewhere that Miami cleared for full stadium capacity. Haven't confirmed it.

Just realized that the bye weeks are going to affect this more than I originally thought. Changed some things to "per game" and it changed everything, so probably didn't do it right.
Gonna see if either of these is close.

Essentially it was assuming that Pittsburgh and Tennessee played each other and just tripped over their dicks for 60 minutes, I think.

So Haskin did not just get Benched..he got moved to the #3 slot. So Washington is going with Kyle Allen and Alex Smith as his backup. Wow.

wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:50 pm So Haskin did not just get Benched..he got moved to the #3 slot. So Washington is going with Kyle Allen and Alex Smith as his backup. Wow.

I have to ask. If Alex Smith is healthy enough to be backup, why is he not starting now?

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:55 pm

wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:50 pm So Haskin did not just get Benched..he got moved to the #3 slot. So Washington is going with Kyle Allen and Alex Smith as his backup. Wow.

I have to ask. If Alex Smith is healthy enough to be backup, why is he not starting now?

Because Ron Rivera coached Allen in Carolina and brought him in this past offseason.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:01 pm Just saw somewhere that Miami cleared for full stadium capacity. Haven't confirmed it.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/07/miami-do ... -governor/

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:55 pm

wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:50 pm So Haskin did not just get Benched..he got moved to the #3 slot. So Washington is going with Kyle Allen and Alex Smith as his backup. Wow.

I have to ask. If Alex Smith is healthy enough to be backup, why is he not starting now?

Because his leg looks like a plank of rotted wood and I'd be stunned if he sees meaningful action.

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:59 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:01 pm Just saw somewhere that Miami cleared for full stadium capacity. Haven't confirmed it.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/07/miami-do ... -governor/

Stocks going up was nice while it lasted. DeSantis is orders of magnitude worse than Rick Scott.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:41 pm With Gilmore, Hurst, and more Titans now testing positive, how long until the season completely implodes?

(My money-league fantasy team is 4-0, so I know it is inevitable.)

This is exactly where I am too. We are 4-0 and dominating, just waiting now for the wheels to fall off. We have the first potential pothole now as Josh is our QB and they play the Titans.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:55 pm

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:59 pm

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:01 pm Just saw somewhere that Miami cleared for full stadium capacity. Haven't confirmed it.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/07/miami-do ... -governor/

Stocks going up was nice while it lasted. DeSantis is orders of magnitude worse than Rick Scott.

That's saying A LOT.

Square Rob wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:03 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:41 pm With Gilmore, Hurst, and more Titans now testing positive, how long until the season completely implodes?

(My money-league fantasy team is 4-0, so I know it is inevitable.)

This is exactly where I am too. We are 4-0 and dominating, just waiting now for the wheels to fall off. We have the first potential pothole now as Josh is our QB and they play the Titans.

I have the opposite problem in my money league. I'm 2-2 tied with 4 out of 5 in my division, but have the tie-breaks. I have McCaffrey, Chubb and Ekeler (all keepers, got lucky drafting Chubb as a rookie and Ekeler last year). I was forced to drop my backup RBs to fill in for my lengthy list of injured WRs, had to carry 8 last week as I wasn't sure if half of them would play. Going from 3 RB#1s to not being able to start anyone at RB. Debated trading an injured Ekeler or Chubb for a healthy but lesser RB, but decided not to throw away keepers when this year probably won't finish. I was able to trade Golladay for James Robinson and McKinnon, hoping that buys me a couple weeks.

Going with the Steelers and Chiefs in my two survivor leagues. If I survive with Pittsburgh, I will have used them in both leagues.

I'm taking Tampa - any time I can take a Thursday game I take it, just to get it out of the way.