The Swamp

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:09 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:08 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.

Yeah. And yet, I've seen teams rally in the face of derision and throw everything into getting a win. They probably don't have that in them until Gase is gone, though.

It's the NFL, man. Anything can happen. If not for an onside kick the 2013 Browns go into New England and wax the Patriots.

Totally. Just feels weird to let it ride on Fitzpatrick. Course, the coaching mismatch is so enormous here that it's as safe a pick as there may be given my options.

Then again, I am bounced in my second survivor league with the Chiefs because for some reason they D just shit the bed against the Raiders. Didn't even give Mahomes a chance to do a magical thing to save them. Couldn't get the damn ball back.

GPJ's computer thinking about the Ravens:

Knowing what those leaves did to that sweater is setting off some obsessive part of my brain.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:11 am Totally. Just feels weird to let it ride on Fitzpatrick. Course, the coaching mismatch is so enormous here that it's as safe a pick as there may be given my options.

And Flacco!

rass wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:21 pm

Let's see...who's the captain?

You are...

Yes, yes, that's right. WELCOME TO VIRGINIA!

Tried a few modifications - while all of the inputs are objective, there are some factors/constants/limits that are subjective just to tweak things.

First modification tried to account for run/pass schedule strength as opposed to total defense and just seemed to widen a few winning margins:

Second one revised scoring mods to reflect TD/FG ratios and tightened things up. After the kegel mods:

Gonna keep tweaking until the end of the season most likely. I can account for injuries and home field (right now I just break ties with home field), but it's subjective and I haven't used it yet. For example I would have to choose a percentage decline for Dallas' passing efficiency and who the hell knows man

First cleveland/steelers score should say 49-38 - I adjust non-common scores to more common ones.


EDIT: Actually nm teams score 48 more often than 49.

Some others I find weird:

- 13 is rather significantly more common (since 2000) than 14 - 527 occurrences to 409

- 17 is only twice as common as 16

- 21 is less than twice as common as 19 (394 to 218)

- 31 is scored nearly 5% of the time (465 total)

- 34 is twice as common as 35

- 41 is scored nearly twice as frequently as any other score over 39 (1.1% of games, next closest is 42 at 0.71%).

Last year it was Shady, this year's it's Le"Veon. You do you, Chiefs.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.

Does anyone else get annoyed when they hear an Orlovsky take? He clearly sucked royally at the NFL level, so much so that he made likely the worst single play this millennium. I feel like an ex-player has to have at least a modicum of competence before they are hired as an analyst.

Like if fucking Peterman was an NFL analyst in 2030, wouldn't that be taking away from a job from... I don't know... Tyrod Taylor or someone like that who was at least baseline competent?

Its survivor.....i don't care how much covid the titans have, they are going to beat the living fuck out of the texans, simply because the franchise has a little bit of hope after last week. I expect a 37 20 titans win

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:49 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:05 am I don't think Orlovsky was all that off-base when he said his 0-16 would beat these Jets 16 times.

Does anyone else get annoyed when they hear an Orlovsky take? He clearly sucked royally at the NFL level, so much so that he made likely the worst single play this millennium. I feel like an ex-player has to have at least a modicum of competence before they are hired as an analyst.

Like if fucking Peterman was an NFL analyst in 2030, wouldn't that be taking away from a job from... I don't know... Tyrod Taylor or someone like that who was at least baseline competent?

Tyrod Taylor with the equivalent of three-yard checkdown commentary would be pretty boring. At least Orlovsky is wiling to step out of the endzone! (I am orlovsky agnostic. I don't really hear that many takes from him to be honest.)

It not so much his takes. If he was just some run-of-the-mill retired dipshit athlete on Twitter it'd be fine. It's more that he's collecting a paycheck from ESPN for them.

I do have to give him a little respect, as his Twitter bio includes "Endzones should be 11 yards", but follows it with the laughing emoji that blunts the effect.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:26 am It not so much his takes. If he was just some run-of-the-mill retired dipshit athlete on Twitter it'd be fine. It's more that he's collecting a paycheck from ESPN for them.

I do have to give him a little respect, as his Twitter bio includes "Endzones should be 11 yards", but follows it with the laughing emoji that blunts the effect.

you do know that Orlovsky is far from the only ex-athlete currently on television in this scenario that you're describing, right?

The thing about Orlovsky is that he's one of the few former athletes that actually breaks down tape and discusses actual -- you know -- football. So if nothing else I have to give him a pass for that. He's one of the best follows on Twitter for talking about QBs.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:55 am The thing about Orlovsky is that he's one of the few former athletes that actually breaks down tape and discusses actual -- you know -- football. So if nothing else I have to give him a pass for that. He's one of the best follows on Twitter for talking about QBs.

yeah, making Orlovsky the example here is off-base. he's good at TV and analyzing football

former athletes on TV need to be viewed like former athletes becoming coaches. there isn't a pervasive sentiment of "wow you were a benchwarmer, why should you coach?" when it comes to ex-athletes leading teams, so why would that be the sole litmus test for TV?

Sort of the whole "those who can't do, teach" applied here?

Plus "cleans up well enough" and "actually likes living in Connecticut."

Mike Singletary was an awesome player, while Doug Pederson was a scrub. Sean Payton and Kliff Kingsbury were like fringe practice squad guys. Who do you want coaching your team?

I'm not the biggest fan of Orlovsky but I'd rather hear him analyze something than Jason Witten.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:10 am Sort of the whole "those who can't do, teach" applied here?

Essentially. I mean, guys without a ton of talent had to take advantage of everything they could just to stay in the league. It probably leads to better coaching than QB Coach Brett Favre telling guys to sling it harder and coach Deion instructing his DBs to play 10 yards off a WR and use your 4.2 speed to break on the throw.

I think Tyrod Taylor would actually be good at this, from what I know of his career. Richard Sherman if he has the personality for it would probably be an incredible coach. But none of them are Bill Belichick, a guy who was not good at playing.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:15 am Mike Singletary was an awesome player, while Doug Pederson was a scrub. Sean Payton and Kliff Kingsbury were like fringe practice squad guys. Who do you want coaching your team?

I'm not the biggest fan of Orlovsky but I'd rather hear him analyze something than Jason Witten.

One of these things is not like the other!


(In that he was good at football. What were you thinking, racist?

Listening to Bronto I'm thinking its more like OrLOVEsky ha ha ha.

orambivalentsky doesn't really work tbh

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:10 am Sort of the whole "those who can't do, teach" applied here?

I mean, sure. I don't think you have to be an all-pro to analyze well, right?

rass wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:15 am Plus "cleans up well enough" and "actually likes living in Connecticut."

the first part helped a lot for Jesse Palmer and Jordan Rodgers!

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:04 pm

rass wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:15 am Plus "cleans up well enough" and "actually likes living in Connecticut."

the first part helped a lot for Jesse Palmer and Jordan Rodgers!

That’s not fair at all. Jesse Palmer doesn’t clean up. It’s effortless for him.

Brian: In-game betting, put money on the Vikings now, they're down 23-0 and about to score.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:00 pm Brian: In-game betting, put money on the Vikings now, they're down 23-0 and about to score.

I wouldn’t trust the Vikings to identify Minnesota on a map, let alone win that game.

Sabo wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:21 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:00 pm Brian: In-game betting, put money on the Vikings now, they're down 23-0 and about to score.

I wouldn’t trust the Vikings to identify Minnesota on a map, let alone win that game.

Ha! They just said it on RedZone, so far every week has had a 16+ point comeback.

Mr. Irrelevant just scored a touchdown in the Giants-WFTs game. Appropriate

Broncos dominate for 3 1/2 quarters. Then they say “fuck it let’s snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”

Romeo appears to be holding his hand in front of his mouth while wearing a mask.

I wonder if teams are trying more trick plays because they won’t get booed if it fails

Romeo went for the Dagger!* **

* that’s what I’m calling the 2-point attempt up 7

** it failed

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:00 pm Brian: In-game betting, put money on the Vikings now, they're down 23-0 and about to score.

I got Minnesota +22.5 and that garbage time TD probably put me over the top. I just need MInnesota to somehow not give up a 50-yard rushing TD after the onside kick.

Rex wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:54 pm Romeo went for the Dagger!* **

* that’s what I’m calling the 2-point attempt up 7

** it failed

To be fair O'Brien would have kicked the FG on 4th and goal and you would have lost in regulation, so progress!

Eagles really botched the clock there, Richard Rodgers made that catch at the 6 yard line with like 3:00 on the clock and they only got one play off before the two minute warning. Brutal when you need the 2, even if you score before the 2 minute warning and miss the 2 you still have a good chance to get the ball back. Now you're dead.

Derrick Fucking Henry.

Bears winning in spite of Matt Nagy. He's better than the dregs of NFL coaches, but he is probably in the bottom third. Poor time management, time out usage, play calling. Really running the whole gamut.