The Swamp

Sean Payton is the wind beneath my wings. Dunking on Florio gets my admiration:

Good week last week:
Over/unders were 9-5-0. Won a parlay for $600, so that's cool.

I don't trust the Miami score at all but both teams are so mediocre that modifying their respective weekly strengths doesn't make any impact at all. I would take the Rams in that one no matter what these numbers say.

Survivor isn't taking injuries or anything into account, just straight up offense v. defense and vice versa based on yearly totals. So Dallas still has a good offense in that one, etc.

The actual projections are meant to take this into account based on a manual input.

I'll regret this and I bet my homerism is showing, but 27-30 in the IND/DET game is just bonkers to me. I don't think DET cracks 20 on them.

I haven't seen that many 40s since something something backstage pass 1986

I’m intrigued by the horse computer’s pedestrian take on Chiefs-Jets

BSF21 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:25 am I'll regret this and I bet my homerism is showing, but 27-30 in the IND/DET game is just bonkers to me. I don't think DET cracks 20 on them.

It's a reflection of the Colts having played some of the scrubbiest offenses in the NFL, and Cincinnati, Cleveland (a good offense) and Jax each put 27+ on them.

I'm not saying you're wrong, just my belief that the Colts are wildly overrated.

Everybody has the Bucs as a great defense now, I had that a few weeks ago along with Buffalo not being that great of an offense (mainly due to their terrible rush offense) and a pretty bad defense. Some others I'm noticing:

1. Carolina is actually good and their pass D is somehow really good.

2. New Orleans is a really good team with a really good defense. Even I don't believe this one, but my numbers say they are a stout rush D, good pass D, very good at getting other teams off the field, and the best team in the NFL of staying on the field offensively. (This is adjusted for strength of opponent).

3. The Raiders are the NFL's best passing offense after adjusting for schedule (yeah I don't believe this either but they've been really good). After this it goes Houston (????), Rams (??), Panthers (!?!?!). Uhhh alright yeah this prob needs work.

4. The Eagles are the best rushing team (Cleveland has fallen to 2nd), and Dallas has the 2nd worst rush D. If Miles Sanders is playing, start him in DFS.

5. The Steelers defense is legit. Their offense is not, particularly the passing offense. It makes sense to me - they go long periods of just stalling out completely while the opponent gets right back into the game.

Rex wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 am I’m intrigued by the horse computer’s pedestrian take on Chiefs-Jets

Two weeks ago it was a 31 point game.

I edited the survivor calc a bit. Again, this is just which teams have been better than the others without accounting for homefield, time off, injuries (so Dallas is still a decent offense, for example), etc.

Out of curiosity - CIN not considered a good offense yet?

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:41 am

BSF21 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:25 am I'll regret this and I bet my homerism is showing, but 27-30 in the IND/DET game is just bonkers to me. I don't think DET cracks 20 on them.

It's a reflection of the Colts having played some of the scrubbiest offenses in the NFL, and Cincinnati, Cleveland (a good offense) and Jax each put 27+ on them.

I'm not saying you're wrong, just my belief that the Colts are wildly overrated.

I'm certainly taking everything with a grain of salt, but injuries have played a part in those higher total games. Swift is a bit of a wildcard and a good weapon for DET too.

I still say it's a boring 21-13 slough. Colts play good football, but it's not fun football to watch for the most part.

GPJ, I notice you predict Denver as a 1 point winner over the Chargers, but choose the Chargers in the survivor prediction. Not that I'm getting on either bet, but I'm wondering about the anomaly?

(And, speaking as a Denver fan, if they win this game I'll be pleased, but very surprised.)

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:34 pm GPJ, I notice you predict Denver as a 1 point winner over the Chargers, but choose the Chargers in the survivor prediction. Not that I'm getting on either bet, but I'm wondering about the anomaly?

(And, speaking as a Denver fan, if they win this game I'll be pleased, but very surprised.)

The survivor prediction is much simpler. I just adjust a few things and compare them.

The actual prediction tries to break it down a bit further and also weights everything based on what I've found the correlation to scoring to be for each item.

The survivor thing is just a simpler look at who has been generally better offensively and defensively.

Is the correlation number, let's use the -5 in this instance, an indication of too much randomness to feel confident or is it to be look at as as strong as a positive 5, just in the other direction? I'm assuming randomness because you've got GB beating the snot out of MIN on a 6.5 line but a -5 strength bet but I'm curious nonetheless

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:57 am Is the correlation number, let's use the -5 in this instance, an indication of too much randomness to feel confident or is it to be look at as as strong as a positive 5, just in the other direction? I'm assuming randomness because you've got GB beating the snot out of MIN on a 6.5 line but a -5 strength bet but I'm curious nonetheless

It appears that it's because I use their actual points scored as a baseline to calculate a final score, and the strength of schedule adjustment is not nearly as strong.

The projection model is still the main one I use for betting and to represent what my true prediction is, but if I have a case like this where a team like Minnesota when after adjusting (pretty significantly) for schedule, they are better in yards/play, running, passing efficiency, and 1D% - I don't have as much confidence in that bet.

I also have a tighter cap on the actual prediction model. There's no cap on the survivor method, the Jets O being -3.2 standard deviations worse than KC's D isn't capped at -1.5 like I do in the prediction model. That's how I get weird shit like the Dolphins over the Rams, even though I don't believe that one bit. I'm looking at how to best adjust that part right now.

Basically every week I try to dial the manual calibrations in a bit. Sometimes I'm just wrong but other times I think I may have had the right idea but didn't calculate it the way I should have.

Rumors circulating that Gilmore is being shopped, and now the always telling "his house is on the market" info is leaking out.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:47 am I also have a tighter cap on the actual prediction model. There's no cap on the survivor method, the Jets O being -3.2 standard deviations worse than KC's D isn't capped at -1.5 like I do in the prediction model. That's how I get weird shit like the Dolphins over the Rams, even though I don't believe that one bit. I'm looking at how to best adjust that part right now.

Basically every week I try to dial the manual calibrations in a bit. Sometimes I'm just wrong but other times I think I may have had the right idea but didn't calculate it the way I should have.

What's wild is that you were super strong last week and I didn't like any of those bets. Couple weeks ago you were 500 and I loved almost all of them.

This is why Vegas always wins because the eye test is not a good metric for sports wagering.

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:52 am Rumors circulating that Gilmore is being shopped, and now the always telling "his house is on the market" info is leaking out.

Nice of the team to give their media a headstart writing the takedowns.

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:07 am This is why Vegas always wins because the eye test is not a good metric for sports wagering.

Yeppp.


And I agree, last week it was much harder to determine the three bets going into the parlay. Two weeks ago it was easy. And yet this week almost any game we would have chosen on Sunday would have ended up hitting.

EDIT: I also penalize teams more in my score projector for doing dumb shit

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 am

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:07 am This is why Vegas always wins because the eye test is not a good metric for sports wagering.

Yeppp.


And I agree, last week it was much harder to determine the three bets going into the parlay. Two weeks ago it was easy. And yet this week almost any game we would have chosen on Sunday would have ended up hitting.

You said you hit 600 on a parlay. You just taking 100 on 3 teams every week? ML or Spread if so?

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:19 am

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 am

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:07 am This is why Vegas always wins because the eye test is not a good metric for sports wagering.

Yeppp.


And I agree, last week it was much harder to determine the three bets going into the parlay. Two weeks ago it was easy. And yet this week almost any game we would have chosen on Sunday would have ended up hitting.

You said you hit 600 on a parlay. You just taking 100 on 3 teams every week? ML or Spread if so?

Yep. Last week went with Detroit (lucky), Carolina and Rams/Bears under.

This week I'm leaning towards Raiders +whatever it is, Raiders/Browns over, and SF/SEA over.

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:52 am Rumors circulating that Gilmore is being shopped, and now the always telling "his house is on the market" info is leaking out.

What the hell? They just gave him a bonus this year.

Does this stem from the Covid stuff with him and Cam and the ensuing drama around it?

Thanks to the jets for losing quick so I could watch the end of the PIT/BAL game. Woo.

Not only were the Bears duped when Taysom Hill came into the game, they were inspired by it on offense and brought in Trubisky to run a keeper on an RPO for no fucking reason.

Fire them all into the sun.

Ronnie Stanley picked a hell of a good week to sign his extension.

Totally cool with the Bears just cutting Javon Wims before the suspension comes down from the NFL.

Top-to-bottom braindead operation.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:33 pm Totally cool with the Bears just cutting Javon Wims before the suspension comes down from the NFL.

That was a hell of a thing, wasn’t it?

The qb fake slide should be a penalty.

Didn’t really like the forward progress call that allowed that game tying Bears drive to continue, and not because I’m a bears fan rooting for this iteration of the team to fail.

Though saints fans whining about the refs will be a little bit of normal in a crazy world.

EdRomero wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:18 pm The qb fake slide should be a penalty.

Not sure who the officiating expert was on that game (Blandino?) but he didn’t want to touch that point when the announcer kept asking about it

I’m starting to really hate Troy Aikman.

McKinnon with -1 rushing yards and a TD. First non-QB since Michael Bush in 2013. The 2 most recent before that were both by Willis McGahee. Names.

Woo! Suck it Tom1860! (damn. that was two swamps ago).

Sean Payton just giving up on the pretense of wearing a mask?

Someone explain to me why Payton didn’t just take two knees to ensure at least half a win? I don’t get the hurry to kick here.

brian wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:59 pm Someone explain to me why Payton didn’t just take two knees to ensure at least half a win? I don’t get the hurry to kick here.

It is beyond reckoning.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:05 pm

Rush2112 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:52 am Rumors circulating that Gilmore is being shopped, and now the always telling "his house is on the market" info is leaking out.

What the hell? They just gave him a bonus this year.

Does this stem from the Covid stuff with him and Cam and the ensuing drama around it?

More they can get an extra pick out two and have extra cap.