The Swamp

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:25 pm**

Betting Horse is back frogs

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Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:25 pm**

Not going to track Over/Unders anymore, as they don't really seem to work all that well.

Fortunately, I worked Cleveland into my parlay and killed it. Good job whoever got that personal foul penalty!

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:47 pm**

Teams on byes are not counted and I haven't fixed that yet.

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Raiders pass the Panthers to move into the top spot for the toughest schedule, the Steelers move into last place with the easiest schedule so far. I wonder if the Raiders sucked enough last week to actually make Atlanta good enough to push them into the top spot?

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Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:54 pm**

Whoa check out the New Orleans/Denver game....I had 31-10 in the week 12 thread but that was before docking Denver's offense for "not having a fuckin' quarterback".

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Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:01 pm**

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Only one slight injury mod at the time being, a minor downgrade to 49ers offense.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:03 pm**

Gave the Ravens a downgrade too but it's not really going to do anything significant.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:37 pm**

Do you dock both teams for traveling to BUF-SF?

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:40 pm**

You really think the Flying Taysoms will put up 41 points?

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:42 pm**

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:37 pm Do you dock both teams for traveling to BUF-SF?

Oh shit is it a neutral site game?

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:43 pm**

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:40 pm You really think the Flying Taysoms will put up 41 points?

My spreadsheet does. Excluding the occasional slight mods this is all automated.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:45 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:42 pm
Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:37 pm Do you dock both teams for traveling to BUF-SF?
Oh shit is it a neutral site game?

It’s in Arizona. But the Niners are probably also practicing there too, so I don’t think it would make sense to dock them. Interesting projection.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:46 pm**

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:45 pm
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:42 pm
Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:37 pm Do you dock both teams for traveling to BUF-SF?
Oh shit is it a neutral site game?
It’s in Arizona. But the Niners are probably also practicing there too, so I don’t think it would make sense to dock them. Interesting projection.

Uhhh yeah - this is going to have to be taken into account every week. There's no way that wouldn't affect players.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:48 pm**

In the offseason I may try to tie the teams together more - ie adjustments to one team affect the other more.

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Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:20 pm**

You just hate the browns. 8-3 hookers.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:37 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:43 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:40 pm You really think the Flying Taysoms will put up 41 points?
My spreadsheet does.

If I had a nickel for every time I’ve used a version of this response at work.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:44 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:37 pm
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:43 pm
sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:40 pm You really think the Flying Taysoms will put up 41 points?
My spreadsheet does.
If I had a nickel for every time I’ve used a version of this response at work.

“Well what does column j say? Cause you sure as shit can’t see it on your screen!”

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:43 pm**

Perform Abysmally, Defend Yourself Vehemently: The Adam Gase Way

Mike Tanier is not impressed.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:05 am**

If you were the Jets, why would you fire Gase now? He almost guarantees you get the number 1 pick. You couldn't pay a guy to lose on purpose and get better results.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:32 am**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:05 am If you were the Jets, why would you fire Gase now? He almost guarantees you get the number 1 pick. You couldn't pay a guy to lose on purpose and get better results.

and he's the easy fall guy too. keeping the fall guy around who is actually achieving your objectives seems like a no brainer, right?

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:41 am**

And you get to further fuck up his career record every week you keep him on.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:43 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:41 am And you get to further fuck up his career record every week you keep him on.

It worked for Hue!

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:29 am**

Is getting a slightly higher pick worth hurting the development of your young payers and having a horrible situation that will make your good players want to leave? It seems the "tank for" strategy only works occasionally. Is Trevor Lawrence supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck?

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:45 am**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:05 am If you were the Jets, why would you fire Gase now? He almost guarantees you get the number 1 pick. You couldn't pay a guy to lose on purpose and get better results.

Should the Jets take Trevor Lawrence? I've got a personal bias towards Darnold, as he is a phenomenal person, and it will bother me if they get rid of him without ever giving him a chance. He hasn't been good, but I don't think he can take the blame for that. He hasn't had much protection, has no run game at all, and an average receiving corp at best.Not to mention missing significant playing time due to illness and injury. Gase is absolutely horrible and just admitted the other day at a press conference that he was brought in to develop Darnold and he's failing in that task. Unless Lawrence is the second coming of Peyton Manning, I don't want the Jets to take him. If they do, and they keep Gase, I think Lawrence is destined to fail and I can see Darnold flourishing under a better situation. Darnold is still just 23 years old with 3 years of experience. OTOH, the Jets can get 3 more years out of a starting QB under a rookie contract, not that they come close to spending their cap allowance.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:12 am**

EdRomero wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:29 am Is getting a slightly higher pick worth hurting the development of your young payers and having a horrible situation that will make your good players want to leave? It seems the "tank for" strategy only works occasionally. Is Trevor Lawrence supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck?

How much of a benefit are you going to get from a few weeks of Greggggg as HC? Gase players seem to be fine after he leaves. And yeah Lawrence is supposed to be really good. I don't like him as much as everyone else seems to, but let's say you win a game. I guess if you like Fields more then try to win a game.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:18 am**

The Sybian wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:45 am
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:05 am If you were the Jets, why would you fire Gase now? He almost guarantees you get the number 1 pick. You couldn't pay a guy to lose on purpose and get better results.
Should the Jets take Trevor Lawrence? I've got a personal bias towards Darnold, as he is a phenomenal person, and it will bother me if they get rid of him without ever giving him a chance. He hasn't been good, but I don't think he can take the blame for that. He hasn't had much protection, has no run game at all, and an average receiving corp at best.Not to mention missing significant playing time due to illness and injury. Gase is absolutely horrible and just admitted the other day at a press conference that he was brought in to develop Darnold and he's failing in that task. Unless Lawrence is the second coming of Peyton Manning, I don't want the Jets to take him. If they do, and they keep Gase, I think Lawrence is destined to fail and I can see Darnold flourishing under a better situation. Darnold is still just 23 years old with 3 years of experience. OTOH, the Jets can get 3 more years out of a starting QB under a rookie contract, not that they come close to spending their cap allowance.

Yes, they probably should.

This was my mock in the Darnold year: viewtopic.php?p=196891#p196891

My biggest fear with Darnold was that he had too much Jameis in him and I think that's played out. Plus, what do you do now? Pay him Nick Foles money and cross your fingers?

Lawrence is another one of these guys like Allen and Herbert who have all the physical gifts but still do a lot of weird shit in college that you'd think would be a bad thing, but then they get to the NFL and the physical traits work out. Both Lawrence and Fields are in one-read offenses where they don't really go through any progressions, they just look at a guy and throw it to him. What Lawrence does have though is a tremendous deep ball and that alone is enough for me to pull the trigger on the talent.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:20 am**

So if anything I'd say Lawrence is the second coming of Justin Herbert, one year later. Once Herbert got into an NFL offense, he suddenly played like Burrow did at LSU. The deep passing ability is what allows him to do that, otherwise teams would just sit in cover 2 against him all day and take away the short throws. 90% of Herberts throws are like 5 yards in the air with 5+ YAC, and the dimes he throws 50 yards downfield are what allows him to do it.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:44 am**

Just saw this, as luck would have it:

1. Mac Jones: 4.6 passes per game of 20-plus yards, 57% completion rate, 26.4 yards per pass, 10-2 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
2. Zach Wilson: 4.3 per game, 69% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 7-0 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
3. Justin Fields: 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR on said passes
4. Kyle Trask: 4.4 per game, 57% completion rate, 19.9 yards per pass, 8-1 TD-INT, 99.5 raw QBR
5. Ian Book: 3.3 per game, 40% completion rate, 15.9 yards per pass, 1-0 TD-INT, 89.0 raw QBR
6. Trevor Lawrence: 4.9 per game, 38% completion rate, 16.1 yards per pass, 5-2 TD-INT, 85.2 raw QBR

Obviously a lot goes in this other than how good the QB is.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:10 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:20 am So if anything I'd say Lawrence is the second coming of Justin Herbert, one year later. Once Herbert got into an NFL offense, he suddenly played like Burrow did at LSU. The deep passing ability is what allows him to do that, otherwise teams would just sit in cover 2 against him all day and take away the short throws. 90% of Herberts throws are like 5 yards in the air with 5+ YAC, and the dimes he throws 50 yards downfield are what allows him to do it.

I'll add one more thing - both Fields and Lawrence will stand in there and take HUGE hits as they throw. I noted that Darnold seems to flee to his right to the point that it's almost like a tic, and the "seeing ghosts" doesn't help. It was a bit of an issue with Dwayne Haskins. It is not even on the radar with the top two guys this year.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:14 pm**

Ryan wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:44 am Just saw this, as luck would have it:

1. Mac Jones: 4.6 passes per game of 20-plus yards, 57% completion rate, 26.4 yards per pass, 10-2 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
2. Zach Wilson: 4.3 per game, 69% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 7-0 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
3. Justin Fields: 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR on said passes
4. Kyle Trask: 4.4 per game, 57% completion rate, 19.9 yards per pass, 8-1 TD-INT, 99.5 raw QBR
5. Ian Book: 3.3 per game, 40% completion rate, 15.9 yards per pass, 1-0 TD-INT, 89.0 raw QBR
6. Trevor Lawrence: 4.9 per game, 38% completion rate, 16.1 yards per pass, 5-2 TD-INT, 85.2 raw QBR

Obviously a lot goes in this other than how good the QB is.

Kyle Trask just had to throw it in the vicinity of his TE (who is an insane monster) and it's a completion.

The main issue I can see with Lawrence on these is that if he's going deep, it's determined before the snap. Same with Fields but to a lesser degree. I've only watched a very little bit so far, to be fair.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:16 pm**

Basically I'm ruined now and have to look a whole lot more at pure physical attributes.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:00 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:12 am
EdRomero wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:29 am Is getting a slightly higher pick worth hurting the development of your young payers and having a horrible situation that will make your good players want to leave? It seems the "tank for" strategy only works occasionally. Is Trevor Lawrence supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck?
How much of a benefit are you going to get from a few weeks of Greggggg as HC? Gase players seem to be fine after he leaves. And yeah Lawrence is supposed to be really good. I don't like him as much as everyone else seems to, but let's say you win a game. I guess if you like Fields more then try to win a game.

Bringing in shitty asshole coordinators is great for in-season job security.

Also, LeGarrette announces his retirement. Fun player to watch (other than that Philly Super Bowl)

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:27 pm**

Blount certainly rehabilitated himself from how his college career ended.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:29 pm**

brian wrote: ↑Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:27 pm Blount certainly rehabilitated himself from how his college career ended.

Yeah, my very first thought about him after reading the retirement note, above, was about him clocking that guy on the field when he was in college.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:42 pm**

That punch was never wrong.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:11 pm**

EdRomero wrote: ↑Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:00 pm
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:12 am
EdRomero wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:29 am Is getting a slightly higher pick worth hurting the development of your young payers and having a horrible situation that will make your good players want to leave? It seems the "tank for" strategy only works occasionally. Is Trevor Lawrence supposed to be the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck?
How much of a benefit are you going to get from a few weeks of Greggggg as HC? Gase players seem to be fine after he leaves. And yeah Lawrence is supposed to be really good. I don't like him as much as everyone else seems to, but let's say you win a game. I guess if you like Fields more then try to win a game.
Bringing in shitty asshole coordinators is great for in-season job security.

Hue Jackson got fired in Cleveland when his coordinators were Todd Haley and Gregg Williams, with the latter becoming the interim head coach, despite winning twice as many games that season than in the two preceding seasons combined.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:21 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:14 pm
Ryan wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:44 am Just saw this, as luck would have it:

1. Mac Jones: 4.6 passes per game of 20-plus yards, 57% completion rate, 26.4 yards per pass, 10-2 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
2. Zach Wilson: 4.3 per game, 69% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 7-0 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
3. Justin Fields: 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR on said passes
4. Kyle Trask: 4.4 per game, 57% completion rate, 19.9 yards per pass, 8-1 TD-INT, 99.5 raw QBR
5. Ian Book: 3.3 per game, 40% completion rate, 15.9 yards per pass, 1-0 TD-INT, 89.0 raw QBR
6. Trevor Lawrence: 4.9 per game, 38% completion rate, 16.1 yards per pass, 5-2 TD-INT, 85.2 raw QBR

Obviously a lot goes in this other than how good the QB is.
Kyle Trask just had to throw it in the vicinity of his TE (who is an insane monster) and it's a completion.

The main issue I can see with Lawrence on these is that if he's going deep, it's determined before the snap. Same with Fields but to a lesser degree. I've only watched a very little bit so far, to be fair.

To Trask's credit, he was 49-of-64 passing for 739 yards and 9 TDs in the two games that Pitts missed after he got knocked out vs. Georgia.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:22 pm**

but the problem with Trask's Heisman candidacy (and Mac Jones' too) is that there are very good arguments to be made that they are not the best offensive players on their teams. you could try to make that with Burrow last year (Chase) but it was far, far weaker.

Posted: **Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:26 pm**

You can rough a wide receiver on a reverse when he throws it? That’s a new one.

Posted: **Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:33 pm**

Rex wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:26 pm You can rough a wide receiver on a reverse when he throws it? That’s a new one.

Looked like he lowered his helmet to initiate contact.

Posted: **Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:49 pm**

Sabo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:33 pm
Rex wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:26 pm You can rough a wide receiver on a reverse when he throws it? That’s a new one.
Looked like he lowered his helmet to initiate contact.

Maybe it was just a generalized unnecessary roughness, but they definitely called it roughing the passer. I would think a defense needs to have more leash on a trick play

The Swamp

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