The Swamp

Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?

brian wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:59 pm Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?

Thank you. That right?

I had some marijuanas.

Jerloma wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:11 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:59 pm Is that the link you meant to post? From 3 years ago?

Thank you. That right?

Yeah, correct now.

Why the league didn't set aside a week in between Week 17 and the start of the playoffs is beyond me. Like it matters to anyone when the playoffs end.

(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)

Jerloma thanks you

rass wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:46 am

(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)

Man, a couple weeks ago it seemed impossible the Browns could miss the playoffs, especially since one of the games they'd have to lose was against the Jets. This is the Brownsiest thing ever. I was really rooting for them. (Maybe that's what did them in?)

One of the local Chicago guys posted a fun article about what Trubisky needs to do Sunday for the Bears to beat the Packers and the likelihood of it happening. He unfortunately used passer rating, but I'll also post league averages as a reference.

Trubisky has 16 games with over a 100 passer rating in his four seasons (league averages: 86.9, 92.9, 90.4, 93.7). One of those games has come against a team that would finish with a winning record: the 2017 Panthers, who went 11-5. Trubisky threw seven passes in that game.

I described that game this way:

Bears had 153 yards of offense yesterday, 70 coming on one play, while Eddie Jackson's two returns for scores covered 151 yards. They ran 37 plays on offense, so they averaged 4.1 yards per play overall and 2.3 yards per play when you remove the longest play.

I hate John Fox (and that field goal was with the ball about 18" from the end zone).

Fun Swamp note: five of those 16 games were against the Lions.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:00 am

rass wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:46 am

(Brown’s training facilities closed again today)

Man, a couple weeks ago it seemed impossible the Browns could miss the playoffs, especially since one of the games they'd have to lose was against the Jets. This is the Brownsiest thing ever. I was really rooting for them. (Maybe that's what did them in?)

OH DID IT??????

Although that post is not correct now. If the browns get to 11-5 they will be in, but that it's still not clinched in an expanded playoff...

To better reflect today’s game, the All-Pro teams should select three WRs, because picking who would sit this year between DaVante, DeAndre, and Diggs would really be a fool’s errand.

I like the Browns and think they should be a playoff team, but when half of your schedule is the NFC East plus the Jags, Texans and Bengals, it's probably better to think of them as an 8-9 win team that really does need another win to clinch.

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:30 am I like the Browns and think they should be a playoff team, but when half of your schedule is the NFC East plus the Jags, Texans and Bengals, it's probably better to think of them as an 8-9 win team that really does need another win to clinch.

2-3 against teams over .500 and 8-2 against those with losing records. I figured they had like 6 or 7 games at least against winning teams

The Ravens are an even more extreme example. Flat track bullies.

Ftizmagic out with the covid.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:47 pm Ftizmagic out with the covid.

Bills in a blowout!

Rex wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:44 pm The Ravens are an even more extreme example. Flat track bullies.

This style of offense (Browns to a much lesser degree than the Ravens) just pounds bad teams. And I mean that in a good way, not as a knock against them.

I thought that would be the Bills offense this year but they probably saw 2020 Josh Allen and said "nah we're gonna air it out every play".

BTWs I'm 61% for the year on the wet and damp games (in green). I might have to try a full season of betting all of them next year.
Wish I would have taken the moneyline on Cincy.

I'm not counting this week since my models can't yet properly account for teams not trying to win. (I do plan on adding things like "urgency" or something like that during the summer).

But I am going to take my best guesses at this week anyway. I would probably shift the modifiers a little bit from where they are ideally but the first scores I got had the Patriots beating the Jets 11-10 and I wanted to keep them for that score alone.

Apparently this thing is loving Mitch Trubisky beating up the dregs of the league.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:16 pm Apparently this thing is loving Mitch Trubisky beating up the dregs of the league.

I do not want Wet Horsebet as either the next coach or GM of the Bears.

Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.

Every Saints running back out.

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:03 pm Every Saints running back out.

Accounted for that to a degree. Perhaps not a high enough degree but a degree nonetheless.

Week 17 is a tough one to bet. Some non-playoff teams still playing hard, and others have checked out. You don’t always know which will be which.

The Giants just rushed 3, drew a holding penalty and still got the sack.

Tampa at Dallas next week is really going to be something.

Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.

Rex wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:29 pm Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.

If it means McCarthy can lose in the playoffs for the fifth time in a walk-off manner, all the better.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:08 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:29 pm Mike Evans injured.

Dallas at the #1 seed in two weeks is really going to be something.

If it means McCarthy can lose in the playoffs for the fifth time in a walk-off manner, all the better.

So we are assuming Washington won't win tonight. If so I hope it is in a soul crushing way.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.

You undersold this

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.

You ain’t lying. Ravens with 350 yds rushing through the 3rd q.

Hey lions got screwed again!

Ryan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:11 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.

You undersold this

It was literally one to bet the mortgage on.

bfj wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:16 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:12 pm Bengals d-line decimated by Covid and contact tracing. They literally will not be able to stop the Ravens run game in a must win for the Ravens. Whatever that line is, it isn't high enough. Ravens minus whatever should be a lock.

You ain’t lying. Ravens with 350 yds rushing through the 3rd q.

Every so often, I can see the future with exacting clarity.

That QB read play on 4th down with Dalton was genius. I think Kellen Moore is gonna be a great HC one day.

Congrats AB and Pruitt. 19 years is a long time.

The crowd is going nuts at the meadowlands!

bfj wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:10 pm Congrats AB and Pruitt. 19 years is a long time.

Fuck Browns