Ukraine

[HaulCitgo]

I'm no history buff so I had to get the quick and dirty. Do I have it right that Ukraine gave back Russian Nukes for us assurances? Budapest memo? I think I've learned the lesson of this war already.

[Steve of phpBB]

Yes.

There was also another treaty in 1997 between Ukraine and Russia where each country agreed to respect the border. But Ukraine decided in 2018 not to renew it (after Russia had already blatantly breached it), so that treaty expired.

There is one thing about the pro-Ukrainian position that bothers me a little bit, though. It seems to me that the border between Ukraine and Russia is somewhat arbitrary in that it really wasn't an international boundary. Up until 1991, it was an internal boundary within the USSR. So it would not necessarily be crazy for the border to need some adjustment.

I didn't even realize that Crimea was part of the Russian SSR until Khrushchev gifted it to Ukraine in 1954. It is not necessarily evil for Russia to decide that since the conditions underlying the gift had changed - Ukraine being a separate country - Russia wanted it back. (I can't believe I sound like Dr. Howard right now.)

So I could see the argument that if the people in a few border regions preferred to be part of Russia rather than part of Ukraine, Ukraine should let those provinces go.

None of this even remotely justifies a murderous invasion, though. It's just Putin giving aid and comfort to the Republicans again, like he did in 2016, because he knows that the Republicans will side with Russia over Ukraine and Europe while the Democrats do the opposite.

[Johnnie]

[EnochRoot]

I trust the sources I'm seeing on Twitter enough to say the bombings have begun.

[mister d]

Kinda feels like maybe Hillary did get one thing right, huh?

[Johnnie]

The responses are pretty good.

[Johnnie]

[HaulCitgo]

Good thing there aren't any other former Soviet countries that need to be repatriated by Russia. Dude needs to be punched in the nose.

Til we get dragged into ww3, can we start making iron eagle movies again? Louis? Where is Louis?

[A_B]

Good thing there aren't any other former Soviet countries that need to be repatriated by Russia. Dude needs to be punched in the nose.

Hope youre into... guns. Otherwise youre gonna end up dead thinking like that. .... I know its sounds cool to talk (type) tough but thats just idiocy. You cant last in that country like that. Someone will shoot you

[HaulCitgo]

Funny but I'm serious. When people redraw borders by force in 2022 the world should enforce. There was a holoucust poem in in my HS library. They will come for you and there will be no one left.

[L-Jam3]

May 8, 1945 to February 24, 2022. It was a good run.

[Gunpowder]

"This is the US's fault", says most of the never apologize for America party

[pruitt2]

Kyiv Independent

Seems like a good source for news from the Ukraine.

And fuck Russia.

[Steve of phpBB]

"This is the US's fault", says most of the never apologize for America party

And these same people are claiming that the attack happened because Biden is both too weak against Russia and also too aggressive against Russia.

[A_B]

This never would have happened under Trump.

[Rex]

Yes.

There was also another treaty in 1997 between Ukraine and Russia where each country agreed to respect the border. But Ukraine decided in 2018 not to renew it (after Russia had already blatantly breached it), so that treaty expired.

There is one thing about the pro-Ukrainian position that bothers me a little bit, though. It seems to me that the border between Ukraine and Russia is somewhat arbitrary in that it really wasn't an international boundary. Up until 1991, it was an internal boundary within the USSR. So it would not necessarily be crazy for the border to need some adjustment.

I didn't even realize that Crimea was part of the Russian SSR until Khrushchev gifted it to Ukraine in 1954. It is not necessarily evil for Russia to decide that since the conditions underlying the gift had changed - Ukraine being a separate country - Russia wanted it back. (I can't believe I sound like Dr. Howard right now.)

So I could see the argument that if the people in a few border regions preferred to be part of Russia rather than part of Ukraine, Ukraine should let those provinces go.

None of this even remotely justifies a murderous invasion, though. It's just Putin giving aid and comfort to the Republicans again, like he did in 2016, because he knows that the Republicans will side with Russia over Ukraine and Europe while the Democrats do the opposite.

Well, congrats to Putin on removing all potential nuance from the situation.

[Giff]

Is there anyone else here scared this is going to end very bad. Like shit we've never seen on a global stage in 76 years bad, but like much worse?

[L-Jam3]

Is there anyone else here scared this is going to end very bad. Like shit we've never seen on a global stage in 76 years bad, but like much worse?

Here. The only saving grace I’m feeling is that at least everyone dealing in this, even Putin, is a rational adult. Couldn’t have said that under the other guy.

[Rex]

Anyone over 40 should be back on familiar turf. Get under the desk, go to a hallway without windows. And don't forget to bring your Garbage Pail Kids in case someone wants to trade.

[Steve of phpBB]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

[tennbengal]

Yes.

[mister d]

Is there anyone else here scared this is going to end very bad. Like shit we've never seen on a global stage in 76 years bad, but like much worse?

Like did I check out the radius if NYC were to be nuked to make sure I'd be dead rather than in some awful in-between state?

[degenerasian]

[Johnnie]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

[Johnnie]

[Johnnie]

We're watching CNN in the office right now and we all rolled our eyes when we see shit like this:



So dystopian.

And then on the other network:

[HaulCitgo]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

[DaveInSeattle]

I'm old enough to remember this:

Trump campaign guts GOP’s anti-Russia stance on Ukraine

The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade.

[brian]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

It appears like Putin plans to encircle Kyiv, so I wouldn't hold out hope that he'll stop at the "disputed" eastern regions. This has strong "Hitler invading Poland in September 1939" vibes.

[The Sybian]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

It appears like Putin plans to encircle Kyiv, so I wouldn't hold out hope that he'll stop at the "disputed" eastern regions. This has strong "Hitler invading Poland in September 1939" vibes.

I listened to a podcast this morning discussing all the possible moves Putin can make. What makes the most sense is invading Kiev, ousting Zelensky and installing a Russian puppet who will act as a proxy so Putin can rule all of Ukraine without having to physically conquer. She was saying Western Ukraine would be incredibly difficult to invade and conquer.

What was really disturbing is the discussion of whether Putin is rational. She was saying even if he is rational, he is so segregated from reality right now, there is no telling what information and advice he is receiving. Putin is still so freaked out about COVID, he makes everyone quarantine in complete isolation for 14 days before meeting with them, and he refuses to use any online communications out of fear of being hacked. So he has virtually no communications with his advisors.

[The Sybian]

I'm not happy about my timing in reading Ken Follett's new book "Never." It's a story about how a minor border skirmish in Africa between Chinese backed militants and a US backed government slowly escalated to full out nuclear war. It was a good book but has me more paranoid about this situation escalating than I otherwise would have been.

[Rex]

Good luck with all of that, really. Has it been done successfully since the 1940s? I don't doubt that they can and will overwhelm the military. But occupying that much land with that many people, armed with social media in addition to whatever normal weapons they have...it's just too difficult.

[P.D.X.]

I suspect the military overreach into the entire country is to make their end goal of annexing just couple territories an 'acceptable' solution. Shoot for the stars...

[Rush2112]

[Steve of phpBB]

Good luck with all of that, really. Has it been done successfully since the 1940s? I don't doubt that they can and will overwhelm the military. But occupying that much land with that many people, armed with social media in addition to whatever normal weapons they have...it's just too difficult.

I guess it just depends on how repressive Putin wants to be.

[degenerasian]

It's insane having a war in the social media era. imagine if we had twitter when Hitler rolled into the Rhineland.

[wlu_lax6]

This is going to be VERY interesting.
https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2 ... ar-future/

How is he going to walk this line. Sponsors, goal chase, been a great DC citizen, loved, but clearly Pro Putin (and as the article highlights..hockey players who went against Putin had some issues).

[degenerasian]

The fact that we are still getting lots of news out of the Ukraine means Russia has completely failed to supress its easiest command and control targets, the civilian cell towers and phone junctions. From a military point of view that is a staggering level of fail.

[Rex]

It's insane having a war in the social media era. imagine if we had twitter when Hitler rolled into the Rhineland.

I don't think Hitler rolling into the Rhineland would have been possible with today's technology, which is the point. WWII would not have played out the way it did if people got to watch and basically experience atrocities happening in real time. Not to mention the ability to warn and mobilize on a grass roots level rather than have to wait for a political or military leader to tell you what to do.

It also makes it harder to maintain support for the war at home. I was pretty surprised to see the videos of the huge crowds in St. Petersburg and Moscow. That will only get bigger. Unless, of course, Putin brings out the tanks and gasses his people. Which, again, will be shown over social media.

[Rex]

The fact that we are still getting lots of news out of the Ukraine means Russia has completely failed to supress its easiest command and control targets, the civilian cell towers and phone junctions. From a military point of view that is a staggering level of fail.

I'm sure they are trying and will eventually succeed on some level. But as Ian Malcolm said, life finds a way.