2014 NCAA Tourney Thread

[Rex]

Kentucky had its defense back, so it wasn't the typical scramble situation. I think the ideal play would have been a screen and roll but WSU needed another second to pull that off.

[degenerasian]

The basket that iowa state made to win is the type of look white shirted teams down by two should be going for instead of low percentage 3s.

It was said earlier. The 3 point line is too close and teams depend on it too much.

[howard]

OTOH, I am fine with a Fred Hoiberg team depending on the 3

[Brontoburglar]

Haven't there been studies that show how the three is correlated with upsets in the tournament?

Move back the 3-line, then people will gripe about fewer upsets. I totally agree that the mid-range game is gone from college basketball and moving it back would help it, but there's the other side to the sword.

[Rams Fanny]

I love how Michigan and the NCAA held Chris Webber up as an example of a bad guy: officially forfeited all the accomplishments of the Fab Five, took down banners of those teams, returned tournament money, and banned him for 10 years BUT they're all to happy to have him sport his old Michigan jersey in a commercial for a Corporate Sponsor.

[Shirley]

You know, for a boy genius, Josh Pastner really doesn't seem like a very good coach, does he? His team had NO IDEA what to do against Virginia tonight. None. They just figured that since Virginia wanted to play slowly, Memphis should sprint down the court and take whatever shitty shot they could think of to try to speed things up. That didn't work so well.

I will give his guys credit for not quitting though. I thought they would. They never really played any better (particularly in their half court "defense"), but they didn't stop trying.

[DaveInSeattle]

That WSU-Kentucky game was awesome to watch. I'd not seen much (read: any) of Wichita State this year, but holy crap that Cleanthony Early is a serious player. I'm bummed he's out of the tourney already.

Pitino-Cal in the Sweet 16. Can we get a drone strike called in?

[tennbengal]

Dave, Pastner is an awful coach.

[Weatherfrog]

I'm a total Pastner apologist. The guy ain't john wooden. I'm long on him though. He's a great recruiter and a great person. Memphis has completely overhauled their academic reputation. All the players get degrees. Basically, Pastner does everything you want a coach to do, except in game management. He can learn (and is learning) to be a better game coach. He beat Rick Pitino twice this year and almost beat Florida. He out coached Mark Few earlier this year.

I can't imagine Memphis getting a better coach. 35 years from now, when Josh is Coach K's age, he will be a well respected coach. I hope he is still at Memphis then.

[DSafetyGuy]

Haven't there been studies that show how the three is correlated with upsets in the tournament?

Move back the 3-line, then people will gripe about fewer upsets. I totally agree that the mid-range game is gone from college basketball and moving it back would help it, but there's the other side to the sword.

I know the guys who do the "Giant Killers" stuff at ESPN look for lower-seeded teams that shoot a lot of threes because they are more volatile because if they get hot, they are more likely to pull off an upset (especially if the game is played at a slower pace, as each point is more valuable when there are fewer possessions/chances to score). My point is that the higher-seeded (better) teams all relied on them in those closing seconds when they could have opted for the tie and overtime, as the longer you play, the more likely the better team wins (the theory behind fewer upsets in NBA playoffs since changing the first round from three to five to seven games).

Moving back the line would make the entire sport better. Yes, it would make the tournament more predictable, but I want a better basketball game, period.

[degenerasian]

Seems all teams that are higher seeds other than Virginia are dependent on the 3 point line as well. Are they trying to counter a hot streak of 3s with one of their own?

Duke was only in the game against Mercer because of 3-point shooting which is inexplicable. Tennessee put up 83 against Mercer yesterday shooting 21-33 from 2 and 6-22 from 3. Why are they taking 22 3s and missing 16 of them when they dominated the paint?

Stanford only attempted 9 3s (and made none) in their controlled win over Kansas.

[A_B]

Seems all teams that are higher seeds other than Virginia are dependent on the 3 point line as well. Are they trying to counter a hot streak of 3s with one of their own?

Duke was only in the game against Mercer because of 3-point shooting which is inexplicable. Tennessee put up 83 against Mercer yesterday shooting 21-33 from 2 and 6-22 from 3. Why are they taking 22 3s and missing 16 of them when they dominated the paint?

Stanford only attempted 9 3s (and made none) in their controlled win over Kansas.

When you have Jarnell Stokes inside to rebound, shooting it a lot isn't a bad plan.

[Brontoburglar]

Haven't there been studies that show how the three is correlated with upsets in the tournament?

Move back the 3-line, then people will gripe about fewer upsets. I totally agree that the mid-range game is gone from college basketball and moving it back would help it, but there's the other side to the sword.

I know the guys who do the "Giant Killers" stuff at ESPN look for lower-seeded teams that shoot a lot of threes because they are more volatile because if they get hot, they are more likely to pull off an upset (especially if the game is played at a slower pace, as each point is more valuable when there are fewer possessions/chances to score). My point is that the higher-seeded (better) teams all relied on them in those closing seconds when they could have opted for the tie and overtime, as the longer you play, the more likely the better team wins (the theory behind fewer upsets in NBA playoffs since changing the first round from three to five to seven games).

Moving back the line would make the entire sport better. Yes, it would make the tournament more predictable, but I want a better basketball game, period.

Oh, I agree it would make the game better. Just saying that there would inevitably be complaints that way.

I think there could be a happy medium between where it is now and the NBA. More space between the lane and the three point line could open the game up a little bit too.

I'm also not against moving the shot clock to 30 seconds. 35-24 seems too extreme, but even a five-second chop could be effective. However, if you cut the shot clock and don't move the three-point line, I'm wondering if you could see even more threes hurled as a team realizes there's little time left and chucks up a three.

[Giff]

I love how Michigan and the NCAA held Chris Webber up as an example of a bad guy: officially forfeited all the accomplishments of the Fab Five, took down banners of those teams, returned tournament money, and banned him for 10 years BUT they're all to happy to have him sport his old Michigan jersey in a commercial for a Corporate Sponsor.

In what is single-handedly the worst commercial of all-time.

[Rush2112]

A group of guys are playing pickup basketball in a park. Alonzo Mourning approaches with a tin can in his hand that has a NAPA logo on it. He opens the can, releasing Patrick Warburton’s voice to inform the players about health insurance. One of the guys standing behind Mourning jokingly refers to him as “Chris Webber” and asks if he wants to try Subway’s new Flatizza. Mourning turns around, only he’s not Mourning anymore — he has transformed into Webber. The guy screams: “Chris Webber!” The rest of the players then recite lines from Queen’s “We Are the Champions” as an Audi driven by the Sonic guys approaches. Ricky Gervais rides in the backseat. He rolls down the window and bites his lip. Everyone in the park goes silent. They all stare at Gervais, who waits a beat. Finally, Gervais speaks: “We are the mighty Ospreys. Soar, soar, soar, soar, soar.”

[brian]

I always thought that was "Score, score, score, score, score" in the Mighty Ospreys fight song. I think I like "score" better.

[Rex]

Regarding the 3-point line, I think it is a matter of time before the NBA and college teams are taking a similar proportion of 3's. NBA average, which used to be in the mid-teens, is now over 25% while the lowest college leagues sit pretty steadily at 30% from year to year.

And then you get to stuff like the Rockets' D-League affiliate which basically exists as an analytics experiment. They take 3's over 45% of the time--i.e., at Creighton level.

[brian]

Virginia is only the second #1 seed to be a dog in the Sweet 16 since 1992.

[degenerasian]

interesting, you'd have to take the #1 dog n'est-ce pas? I really like how Virginia plays.

[Nonlinear FC]

I love how Michigan and the NCAA held Chris Webber up as an example of a bad guy: officially forfeited all the accomplishments of the Fab Five, took down banners of those teams, returned tournament money, and banned him for 10 years BUT they're all to happy to have him sport his old Michigan jersey in a commercial for a Corporate Sponsor.

That wasn't a MI jersey. I agree with your overall take here, but I'm not at all sure MI signed off on that commercial.

It's a VERY STRANGE ad, speaking as MI fan with mixed emotions about the Fab 5 and MI's reaction.

[brian]

interesting, you'd have to take the #1 dog n'est-ce pas? I really like how Virginia plays.

That'll be a helluva game. I'm not sure I'd want to fade either of those teams.

[degenerasian]

would that also be a low scoring game?
The total is 127.

[brian]

would that also be a low scoring game?
The total is 127.

Virginia is very good defensively and Michigan State can be very good. That number looks about right to me. MSU seems to be pushing the ball more than they have earlier in the season (maybe not surprising now that Dawson is healthy). I'd probably guess over if I had to go one of the other.

[Shirley]

would that also be a low scoring game?
The total is 127.

That's exactly what Pomeroy predicts (65-62 UVA), and his scores tend to be pretty close.

[brian]

Rick Pitino is 11-0 for his career in Round of 16 games.

[degenerasian]

Rick Pitino is 11-0 for his career in Round of 16 games.

Has he always been the higher seed in those games?
As a comparison, what's coach K's record in Round of 16 games?

[A_B]

Back of the napkin looks like 15-8.

[A_B]

BOLD PREDICTIONS

DAYTON
UCLA
UCONN
MICHIGAN ST
ARIZONA
BAYLOR
KENTUCKY
MICHIGAN

[A_B]

Buzzcuts laying a whoopin

[tennbengal]

Dayum.

The Michigan/Kentucky game takes its place among the handful of best ncaa tourney games I have had the occasion to watch.

Hell, this tournament is right up there. Really entertaining games throughout.