Degen's MLB Gambling Odyssey

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:08 am

I was told years ago, why bet on a pick'em game that's 50/50 when you can parlay two favorites and make more than par.
For example (using decimal odds), betting on a pick'em game only yields 1.90 while it only takes a pair of 1.42s to get to 2.00

Especially a sport like baseball where there isn't parity, the favorites will win all the time.
But I was skeptical because it's tough for a team to win even 100 games out of 162.

I think I have to look for good pitching matchups which is difficult to do on opening day since it's all #1 starters.

I have $500 in my account, I'll do $30 bets and see where it leads me.

Yesterday I took

Pirates (Liriano) and Tigers (Verlander) $30 X 1.55 X 1.66 = 77.19
WON 47.19

Marlins (Fernandez) and Angels (Weaver) $30 X 1.59 X 1.82 = 86.81
LOST $30

Balance $517.19

I guess it is not surprising that I lost the 1.82 game.

Today I'm taking Dodgers (Greinke) and Yankees (Sabathia) $30 X 1.66 X 1.66 = 82.67

I was thinking maybe the Rays instead of the Dodgers but I wanted to watch a day game.

Think I'll make it to June? Or is this strategy bogus?

Post by **brian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:30 am

Yeah, your math is a little shaky. The odds are the same long-term regardless of whether you bet the games straight up or do parlays, though I will say that the one positive move is that the odds for baseball parlays as you describe here are at least "true" parlay odds as opposed to the crappy 12/5 odds you get in Vegas on -110 (standard odds i.e. football) parlays.

In the long run, your risk of ruin is exactly the same as if you just bet one game a day whether you bet the favorite or dog or whatever.

(ETA: This isn't to say that you shouldn't endeavor on your little experiment. Sounds like fun and is just as "sound" a betting strategy as betting one game a day or whatever.)

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:46 am

Can't really bet one game a day cause baseball doesn't really have a spread so there's no equalization like football where you can take the best (-110) game on Sunday.

Picking underdogs in baseball probably isn't the best strategy and the -1.5 run spread is probably the dumbest bet in sports. -1.5 runs is usually for the home team and to take a team hitting 8 innings to beat a team hitting 9 innings by 2 runs is such a disadvantage.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:57 am

Baseball is the worst sport to just bet recreationally. You'll have to be a high volume bettor, I'd say.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:58 am

I like your LA over SD bet at -140.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:58 am

I also love Miami straight up behind Eovaldi over Colorado starting a relief pitcher.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:00 pm

Third fave is Texas/Philly over 8.5

Post by **brian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:05 pm

degenerasian wrote:Can't really bet one game a day cause baseball doesn't really have a spread so there's no equalization like football where you can take the best (-110) game on Sunday.

Picking underdogs in baseball probably isn't the best strategy and the -1.5 run spread is probably the dumbest bet in sports. -1.5 runs is usually for the home team and to take a team hitting 8 innings to beat a team hitting 9 innings by 2 runs is such a disadvantage.

The best strategy is making the best bet given the odds, no different than any other sport regardless of how the odds are constructed. The only way to win at sports betting is to bet with an edge. Unless you're a math/stats wizard crunching numbers that no one else has access to, then that edge is best gained with information. The more information you have than other bettors gives you an advantage since the house only wants to take an even amount of money on each game.

If you think you have an edge/advantage on a spread where a dog is +200 then you load up on the dog. If you think a -300 favorite would actually win 4 out of every 5 trials then you load up on the favorite.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:13 pm

Betting math, love it. Parlays can indeed be profitable, but if you are a good handicapper then they will cost you money over the long haul if bet consistently. Yesterday is a perfect example. Let's say you bet $30 on each game instead of on two team parlays:
$30 x 1.55 (w)= 46.50 +16.50
$30 x 1.66 (w)= 49.80 +19.80
$30 x 1.59 (w)= 47.70 +17.70
$30 x 1.82 (L)= 0 -30

So we have 16.50 + 19.80 + 17.70 - 30 = +24 vs +17.70 your parlays produced. I'm certainly not crapping on $17.70, any day in the + is a good day, but you left money on the table.

Parlays are a multiplier and while we are lured in by the multiplied winnings, it works in reverse also. Let's say you only hit two out of four in a given day (which will happen more often than not). Your system will only be sustainable if both losses come in the same parlay. If they come one in each parlay you have nothing to show for your respectable day of picking 50%. Assuming odds are relatively close for each game as they were yesterday, betting individually will give you a smaller loss than if both losses are in the same parlay which would be better still than if a loss happened in each parlay.

My advice: handicap games on their own merit and if you find two (or three, whatever) that are very strong then parlay. Otherwise stick to betting per game. Your system requires you to bet in pairs, which will mean you will have to talk yourself into games which may (will) cost you money.

I also want to steer you away from a type of gamblers logic professed in the first sentence of your post. The whole basis of that system is you are basing decisions on the odds given. Handicap first without looking at the odds. A winner at 1.0 ALWAYS pays more than a loser at 1.5.

Good Luck!

ETA: I see that if you bet $15/game (to keep $$ bet same), your system would have been more profitable by $5.70. My points on where the losses come and long term profitability remain same.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:41 pm

Rather than do an edit, I want to add a thought about my previous post. I chose to use $30 as an individual base bet because a parlay is an if-then bet. At $30 x 1.55 x 1.66, you are telling the Book take my $30 x 1.55 = $46.50 and bet that as $46.50 x 1.66. You are essentially betting that except you don't have the option to back out/not make bet #2.

Just wanted to further clarify why I was making the assumption of $120 total bet as opposed to the $60 you laid down.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:11 pm

Yes I may have left money on the table getting 3 out of 4 but I don't want to bear the brunt of losing all 4 games individually at -140 for each of them. By doing a parlay it just feels better to get back something more than 2.00 (+100).

I've limited it to 2 though, doing continuous 4 game parlays would be difficult.

This will hopefully be a season-long experiment. Might be stupid by the end of it all.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:16 pm

I think parlays are great if you are betting more for fun and entertainment than for pure profit. The feeling of hitting one is awesome, too.

Post by **brian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:28 pm

Yeah, I hope the point of my post wasn't taken as "don't do parlays". It was more like "don't feel like you have to have a system". Because systems never work.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:35 pm

Gunpowder wrote:I think parlays are great if you are betting more for fun and entertainment than for pure profit. The feeling of hitting one is awesome, too.

I agree 100% with this. When it's more than fun, well, you know the rest.

Original post asked about the system itself and I was just pointing out that math was not in your favor long term vs individual bets. Doesn't mean it won't work and I hope it does for you.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:38 pm

Yeah, I wasn't disagreeing with yinz guys, just throwin' my opinion up in here.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:15 pm

Love all the opinions. I think this will be a fun experiment.

Not only is the math probably sketchy but I have to pick the right games as well. If there were 5 -140 games and I took the one that lost instead of the one that won then it's my suckiness isn't it.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:12 pm

Sheesh 6-0 Astros.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:36 am

Yankees lost yesterday

Balance: $487.19

Today (Afternoon)

Tigers (Scherzer) and Brewers (Garza) $30 X 1.54 X 1.82 = $84.08

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:42 am

I went two for three to rake in $0!

Post by **brian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:44 am

Gunpowder wrote:I went two for three to rake in $0!

I bet on the Giants and got screwed (partly) by Bochy being an idiot and wasting his challenge on a stupid pickoff play.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:48 am

Harang starting in Milwaukee suggests over 8.5

Washington -130 over NYM seems like good value

Those are Gunpowder's two soaking hot locks

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:39 pm

Gunpowder wrote:Harang starting in Milwaukee suggests over 8.5

Washington -130 over NYM seems like good value

Those are Gunpowder's two soaking hot locks

of course I take the Brewers, you take the over and Harang takes a no-hitter into the 7th.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 5:42 pm

Balance: $457.19

Today (Evening)

Pirates (Morton) and Rangers (Ross) $30 X 1.64 X 1.59 = 78.228

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:02 pm

I'll join if that's ok.

Wash/NYM ov7 Even
Phil/Tex over 9.5 -105

Both for $40

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:10 pm

degenerasian wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:Harang starting in Milwaukee suggests over 8.5

Washington -130 over NYM seems like good value

Those are Gunpowder's two soaking hot locks

of course I take the Brewers, you take the over and Harang takes a no-hitter into the 7th.

Good thing I didn't actually take them. A freakin' two way no hitter into the 7th on my smoking hot lock! At least Washington picked up some of my hypothetical slack.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:15 pm

Texas with the miracle comeback but Pirates are probably going to lose.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:18 pm

Pirates blew it for you.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:43 pm

Pirates tie it up in the 12th but leave the bases loaded. Veras threw 38 pitches that inning!

on we go!

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:52 pm

Pedro's gonna bring it home for you.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:52 pm

Veras picking up right where Marmol left off.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:10 pm

Cubs turned a 7-2-3 double play. Pirates left the bases loaded again.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Apr 03, 2014 9:50 am

woo, lucked out last night

Balance: $505.42

Looks like a tough slate today. Going with Pirates (Rodriguez) and Tigers (Sanchez) again

$30 X 1.62 X 1.65 = $80.19

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:04 am

Apparently if the Reds-Cardinals O/U is 1.5, go under.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:20 pm

Tigers rained out.
Pirates down 2-0 with the Cubs threatening.

I'm cheering for rain there too now.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:46 pm

Thunder is rolling but they may get lucky.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:55 pm

Gunpowder wrote:Thunder is rolling but they may get lucky.

Did the lightning strike? What about your love? Did it run cold, perhaps on a sleepless night?

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:04 am

Balance: $475.42

Today (Afternoon)

Nationals (Zimmerman) and Red Sox (Peavy)

$30 X 1.60 X 1.64 = $78.72

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:09 am

Giff wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:Thunder is rolling but they may get lucky.
Did the lightning strike? What about your love? Did it run cold, perhaps on a sleepless night?

That's exactly what I was thinking as I wrote it.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Apr 04, 2014 5:27 pm

both Nats and Sox lost, I'm awesome.

Balance: $445.42

Tonight:
Yankees (Tanaka) and Rays (Odorizzi)

$30 X 1.74 X 1.66 = $86.65

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Apr 05, 2014 10:14 am

Recovered with a win last night.

Balance: $502.07

Today (Afternoon)

Indians (Carrasco) and Royals (Chen)

$30 X 1.59 X 1.66 = $79.19