The Swamp

Well, the playoff matchups and schedules are all set!

The Western Conference matchups look funny. You could make a solid argument for upsets in each of the four matchups: Dallas #8 has been the hottest of the Western conference teams, and Anaheim #1 has slowed down since the Olympic break. Colorado #2 has very poor Corsi and Fenwick stats and seems to have been riding a hot goaltender all year. They may beat Minnesota #7, but they don't look formidable. St. Louis is seeded higher, but has been horrid for two weeks and will have to reverse things quickly to beat Chicago. San Jose and Los Angeles always play tight, close games, but the Kings have won a Cup and have Jonathan Quick.

My picks: Dallas, Colorado, Chicago, San Jose.

The East is a bit more likely to go by chalk, but upsets always seem to happen. Boston #1 looks like the team to beat, and Detroit #8 is still battling injury problems. Pittsburgh #2 looks vulnerable to me, and Fleury hasn't been great in recent playoffs. Columbus #7 may give them a good tussle. New York and Philadelphia looks like an awesome matchup that could go either way. Montreal and Tampa Bay have both have some goalie concerns, but it looks like another close matchup.

My picks: Boston, Pittsburgh, New York, Tampa Bay

I've got tickets to game 2 Friday night. Let's hope the building is filled with blue jerseys, not red.

Hopefully the Pens are no where near as fragile as I feel after the last couple of years, but given the choices of DET, PHI and CBJ, I think they pulled the best matchup.

St. Louis is still showing as 6/1 and I want to bet against them at 1/6.

I sent Travzilla a pm asking him if he is going to set up his annual playoff pool game, but I haven't heard from him. Perhaps he hasn't been lurking lately. Too bad.

mister d wrote:St. Louis is still showing as 6/1 and I want to bet against them at 1/6.

Wow. Is everyone that has gotten hurt over the last 4 weeks coming back immediately or have they just not changed the odds?

STL is a VERY good team when they are healthy. I know they skidded into the playoffs but you gotta remember, that was with no Backes, no Terensenko, no Oshie, and a few others. They were about as banged up as you can get.

Chicago is going to be interesting. Cap n Kane are coming back, but both of them have missed significant ice time over the last month. You have to wonder if they can just hit the ice with the same form and line-gel that they had through the year. Chicago is NOT as good as last year in my opinion. Versteeg is abysmal. Their PP still sucks. A lot of it hinges on Crawford and if he remembers that he can lift his glove hand.

Very interesting in the West this year.

The Hawks are better than their record. A lot of one-goal losses.

They've a decent chance of winning it all. Or getting swept in the first round.

I'm at Disneyland this week, wondering if I should try to get tickets for Ducks-Stars tomorrow.

More than record in one goal games (which I think is far more correlated w/ skill and performance than one run games in baseball), this is your nice "watch out for the Blackhawks" stat: http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice ... eason=2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good info, D. Makes me wish even more that the Sharks had drawn a team other than the Kings in the first round.

Steve, I think if you just show up at the Honda Center, you'd have a pretty good chance of getting a scalper seat at a decent price.

If you guys want to see a tremendously pouty Mister D, root for the Rangers to win between 9 and 11 games in the playoffs.

Eight isn't much fun, either.

I'm leaving again.

Not very relevant to anything, but here's a horribly awkward video of a teen-aged Jack Johnson and Sidney Crosby interviewing three not-very-into-hockey girls:

mister d wrote:More than record in one goal games (which I think is far more correlated w/ skill and performance than one run games in baseball), this is your nice "watch out for the Blackhawks" stat: http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice ... eason=2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good lord is there anything people cant sabermetricize?

Great start to playoff hockey, tonight!

No commercials in OT. Can't even pee.

Whew.

CBC's Playoffs Opening. It'll get anyone pumped up.

Rangers over Flyers will be, at a minimum, a top 10 roster attractiveness discrepancy playoff series of all-time.

mister d wrote:Rangers over Flyers will be, at a minimum, a top 10 roster attractiveness discrepancy playoff series of all-time.

Gonna be a war of attrition. We should have a pool for who gets in the first blatant cheap shot of the series. My money is on Rinaldo.

I'll take Simmonds, he's a punk.

Hartnell. He loooooooves targeting after non-fighters who aren't looking so a banged up McDonagh playing a dump against the boards is basically his version of heaven.

sancarlos wrote:

mister d wrote:Rangers over Flyers will be, at a minimum, a top 10 roster attractiveness discrepancy playoff series of all-time.

Gonna be a war of attrition. We should have a pool for who gets in the first blatant cheap shot of the series. My money is on Rinaldo.

ray emery should be some kind of horse in the cheap shot competition.

If we made this a draft, and knowing Carcillo is a scratch, how long would it take to pick a Rangers in a first cheapshot pool?

Derek Dorsett. He's no angel. And, I wouldn't be surprised if they dress Carcillo for some games this series. They may need more deterrent for Rinaldo, Simmonds, Hartnell...

Yeah, but Dorsett is more of a true lunatic than a cheapie goon like the Flyers guys. But if something happens and he snaps, he could really snap.

(And absolutely on Carcillo. Jasper Fast is playing the role of 9th forward by default with Kreider out and Miller in the doghouse so he'll get pulled the second AV wants to prove a point or, god willing, retaliate.)

who had their money on pouliot or mcdonagh for the cheap shot competition?

WHERE THE FUCK IS MY KUDLOW REPORT

Really out of character for the Flyers to take a bunch of penalties late in an already decided game.

And, one more of Quenneville that I saw on Twitter.

mister d wrote:More than record in one goal games (which I think is far more correlated w/ skill and performance than one run games in baseball), this is your nice "watch out for the Blackhawks" stat: http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice ... eason=2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks. Now I just have to learn what a Fenwick is.

About the one-goal game thing, I would agree that hockey is probably less random than baseball. But still, if each team is getting 30 shots per game, there has to be a lot of randomness in whether those shots lead to 3 goals or 4.

Also, it's great to see you back here, Mr. D. And just in time for the next Marathon.

mister d wrote:Really out of character for the Flyers to take a bunch of penalties late in an already decided game.

they've been pretty terrible in the third period as of late. i'm not sure if its the result of them physically running out of gas in the third, or they just have short attention spans and get lackadaisical. but after the two pp goals, the flyers totally gave up on any discipline whatsoever. and they were thisclose to making it a one goal game seconds before the rangers scored goal number 4.

but last night wasn't about special teams or discipline, it was about multiple forwards pulling a disappearing act after the first intermission. they could not really get any cycle going and nobody was getting in front of lundqvist the whole night. rangers d neutralized them. could be a short series if that keeps up.

Steve of phpBB wrote:Thanks. Now I just have to learn what a Fenwick is.

About the one-goal game thing, I would agree that hockey is probably less random than baseball. But still, if each team is getting 30 shots per game, there has to be a lot of randomness in whether those shots lead to 3 goals or 4.

Also, it's great to see you back here, Mr. D. And just in time for the next Marathon.

Shots: You know
Fenwick: Shots + Missed Shots
Corsi: Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots

The backlash is "how is a missed shot good???" but when you think about the other option, which is simply turning it over or dumping it without going on net, its good. Blocked shots have the negative of a possible counter so I'm more Fenwick than Corsi but either is dope. Bonus points because it seems to be the closest time of possession indicator the NHL currently has.

cerrano wrote:they've been pretty terrible in the third period as of late. i'm not sure if its the result of them physically running out of gas in the third, or they just have short attention spans and get lackadaisical. but after the two pp goals, the flyers totally gave up on any discipline whatsoever. and they were thisclose to making it a one goal game seconds before the rangers scored goal number 4.

but last night wasn't about special teams or discipline, it was about multiple forwards pulling a disappearing act after the first intermission. they could not really get any cycle going and nobody was getting in front of lundqvist the whole night. rangers d neutralized them. could be a short series if that keeps up.

Nothing you guys did up front made any sense last night. Big physical forwards deciding to play dump and chase against a team whose D is predicated far more on skill than physicality. I know a sub-goal was the separate McD from Giroux (slash give free runs at McD), but the best player in the world should be able to handle a sub-Norris defenseman, right?

Funniest thing, not sure if you agree, is your best forward last night was that kid I'd never heard of, atleast right up until he tried to throw the most awkward check ever and wiped out for 4:00.

Lucic win the early cheap shot of the playoffs.

degenerasian wrote:Lucic win the early cheap shot of the playoffs.

Ouch!

Boy, that's a dirty play by Lucic.

sancarlos wrote:Boy, that's a dirty play by Lucic.

And now Cory Perry spears Jaime Benn and the refs call it slashing (instead of an ejection). Afterwards Daley takes Perry down the pummels him. Anaheim gets a power play. Game is getting out of control.

The league refuses to regulate this. Either they have to throw guys out or allow the other team to punch them in the face. This grey-area in between allows cheap-shot artists to exist.

We need to add Corey Perry to the list we made earlier of cheap shot artists. The only difference is that he's more talented than guys like Cooke, Ott and Burrows, etc.

mister d wrote:Nothing you guys did up front made any sense last night. Big physical forwards deciding to play dump and chase against a team whose D is predicated far more on skill than physicality. I know a sub-goal was the separate McD from Giroux (slash give free runs at McD), but the best player in the world should be able to handle a sub-Norris defenseman, right?

Funniest thing, not sure if you agree, is your best forward last night was that kid I'd never heard of, atleast right up until he tried to throw the most awkward check ever and wiped out for 4:00.

now berube has announced that the flyers are going do the opposite on sunday and carry pucks in and play the rangers d straight up. wheels within wheels. me thinks he has a mourinho complex.

but about akeson, he was the only flyers plus player in terms of shot differential and the only flyer who wasn't on the ice during a rangers scoring chance. (h/t travis hughes on broad street hockey) however, these facts do more to demonstrate how impotent the offense was last night using those tactics rather than the quality of akeson. and again, how well the rangers were able to move the puck in their own end and limit pucks (and players) from getting into the middle of the ice.