MLB May 2014

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue May 13, 2014 7:48 am

This elbow surgery business is getting out of hand.

Is it really happening that much more or is it just that the people that used to have this problem just flamed out?

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 7:57 am

Probably both. It's why you've never heard of Ron Necciai and Steve Dalkowski, and history is littered with old pitchers who were awesome and then suddenly, for some reason, just weren't good anymore.

At the same time, it is theorized that kids are throwing too much at a young age these days playing for travel squads all year. And back in the day, with most people living in colder climates, I bet they didn't throw much at all comparatively before becoming professionals.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 7:57 am

Either way, as Chris Rock would put it - 2Pac? Tommy John surgery. Biggie? Tommy John Surgery. Kevin Correa? Still pitching!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:20 am

Splits and harder breaking stuff is upping the rate too.

(The latter makes me wonder if Koufax was really that transcendent or if he was just ahead of his time with the power curve.)

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:23 am

And people throw harder today. I've read some reports that took game footage and estimated Walter Johnson at 92-93 mph and he was the fastest back then. They also looked to have smoother, easier sidearm deliveries but that's just my uninformed eye.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:24 am

mister d wrote:Splits and harder breaking stuff is upping the rate too.

(The latter makes me wonder if Koufax was really that transcendent or if he was just ahead of his time with the power curve.)

Would make a lot of sense. he was average, then figured out a pitch that no one else threw, which made it that much harder to prepare for. Of course, part of his averageness was just from starting so young, and then working his way into his peak and learning how to pitch instead of just throwing.

And they called his elbow problem arthritis back then. Probably just the default for chronic soreness not knowing how to diagnose the way they can today.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:25 am

Gunpowder wrote:And people throw harder today. I've read some reports that took game footage and estimated Walter Johnson at 92-93 mph and he was the fastest back then. They also looked to have smoother, easier sidearm deliveries but that's just my uninformed eye.

Specialization probably increased this as well. When you were part of a four-man rotation it was probably harder to dig deep every single pitch.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:28 am

All the old guys smoked too. That's probably good for the arm.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:40 am

Eras are weird. Like Jordan Zimmerman sent back in time would probably dominate the shit out of the majors.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:41 am

This is something I need to remember for when I'm 60 and arguing like an idiot that there's no current player as good as young Mike Trout (before CJ Wilson killed him in a grisly murder-suicide).

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:48 am

There are higher pitch counts to go along with all that breaking stuff. How often do you see today a pitcher have a batter at 0-2 and then dick around with breaking stuff trying to get the batter to chase. 3up 3 down innings can take 20 pitches.

Also with advanced stats pitchers are pitching to save their WHIP and ERA in order to keep a job or for that next contract. The game could be 10-0 and pitchers are still trying to get everyone out with 0-2 and then 3-2 changeups instead of throwing all fastballs and getting the batter to put it in play. It's 10-0 who cares if you give up a couple.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue May 13, 2014 8:50 am

I don't think there are higher pitch counts these days at all.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:02 am

Pretty sure they're a lot lower. Definitely at a game level, not sure about inning by inning. But I'd bet throwing 25 pitches with hard wrist snap out of 100 pitches is worse than throwing 150 pitchers where you're mostly just changing your fingers around or just pulling it through.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:05 am

(Changing side to side, like the "old" curve, not splitting. That's new math.)

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:10 am

I loved this Cutch commercial.

Wish he played for my team.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:11 am

Yeah I meant higher pitch counts per batter and per inning.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:14 am

I wish there was historical pitch count data. The most telling thing I can find is the progression of the league leaders in batters faced, on B-R:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... gues.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:18 am

Gibson claims to have thrown 190+ in his career if that's any indication.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:29 am

mister d wrote:Gibson claims to have thrown 190+ in his career if that's any indication.

Mitch Williams once claimed to have 50+ multi-inning saves (real number: 0). Have to take athlete self-claims with a grain of salt.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:34 am

Here is a 205 pitch game from Koufax. (B-R actually seems to think it's 213, but it's reported elsewhere at 205.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 9200.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:38 am

That's an offensive comp despite making a proper point.

According to b-ref, Gibson's longest game was 14 innings and 52 batters. 190 seems like a pretty safe bet.

Post by **brian** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:39 am

Rex wrote:Here is a 205 pitch game from Koufax. (B-R actually seems to think it's 213, but it's reported elsewhere at 205.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 9200.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That box score is awesome. Koufax had a game score of 97 despite giving up 2 ER and 7 hits. It also took only 3:12 to play a 13-inning game. Or about what it takes to play 7 innings of a Red Sox-Yankees game these days.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:43 am

True fact: In city ball, I once had a parent tell me he counted me at 150-something pitches (which was more novelty back then, not even sure why he thought to count) and I've never had Tommy John surgery. Is it possible I'm just tougher than modern pitchers?

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:52 am

brian wrote:
Rex wrote:Here is a 205 pitch game from Koufax. (B-R actually seems to think it's 213, but it's reported elsewhere at 205.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 9200.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That box score is awesome. Koufax had a game score of 97 despite giving up 2 ER and 7 hits. It also took only 3:12 to play a 13-inning game. Or about what it takes to play 7 innings of a Red Sox-Yankees game these days.

You have to figure that the pitchers in that game consistently had about 5-7 minutes between innings. No long innings for either team, no YMCA between innings, no mid-inning pitching changes. That's probably ideal conditions right there. I have to wonder how much of a problem it is that pitchers now regularly go 10, 15, 20 minutes between trips to the mound.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 10:04 am

Rex wrote:
brian wrote:
Rex wrote:Here is a 205 pitch game from Koufax. (B-R actually seems to think it's 213, but it's reported elsewhere at 205.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 9200.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That box score is awesome. Koufax had a game score of 97 despite giving up 2 ER and 7 hits. It also took only 3:12 to play a 13-inning game. Or about what it takes to play 7 innings of a Red Sox-Yankees game these days.

You have to figure that the pitchers in that game consistently had about 5-7 minutes between innings. No long innings for either team, no YMCA between innings, no mid-inning pitching changes. That's probably ideal conditions right there. I have to wonder how much of a problem it is that pitchers now regularly go 10, 15, 20 minutes between trips to the mound.

Never thought of that. Warming up and cooling down and warming up and etc etc isn't good for anything, so why would it not be bad on the arm?

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue May 13, 2014 10:05 am

mister d wrote:That's an offensive comp despite making a proper point.

According to b-ref, Gibson's longest game was 14 innings and 52 batters. 190 seems like a pretty safe bet.

Fair 'nuff.

Also on the throwing hard point above, Nolan Ryan was once clocked at 100 mph and it was a huge deal. Say what you want about modern usage of radar guns and overstating of speeds, but probably 50+ current pitchers have thrown around 100 mph.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue May 13, 2014 11:10 am

I wish I could see these two stats.

A) How often there are 3-1 or 3-2 counts now compared to in the past.

B) How often there are breaking balls thrown at 3-1 and 3-2 counts now compared to in the past (it must have been called fastball counts for a reason).

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue May 13, 2014 11:39 am

br.com's pitch data only goes back to 1988, but pretty much everything about pitching (and, in this case, hitters' approaches to pitching) has changed since the days you'd really want to compare anyway. It's like trying to see if the 100m dash record has gone down because of changing global air current patterns.

Post by **brian** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:28 pm

Miguel Cabrera is underpaid.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue May 13, 2014 9:32 pm

Don't worry, that's going to change reeeeaaal soon.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Wed May 14, 2014 2:10 am

Very few players with long-term deals are underpaid. Long-term deals tend to be structured so the annual pay is rather constant. This is so despite the obvious fact that player value declines after the late 20s. So the actual cash that flows in a given year is not really a payment that is designed to reflect the player's value in that year.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed May 14, 2014 7:04 am

Cabrera is like, the 30th best hitter in baseball this season.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed May 14, 2014 7:14 am

Gunpowder wrote:Cabrera is like, the 30th best hitter in baseball this season.

BUT HE HIT A HOME RUN LAST NIGHT!

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed May 14, 2014 8:34 am

I kid.

Post by **brian** » Wed May 14, 2014 9:20 am

You all know I was joking, right? I thought that's what we do here.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed May 14, 2014 9:28 am

brian wrote:You all know I was joking, right? I thought that's what we do here.

The swamp is no place for mirth.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed May 14, 2014 9:29 am

AB_skin_test wrote:
brian wrote:You all know I was joking, right? I thought that's what we do here.

The swamp is no place for mirth.

New rule: No jokes or ballbusting allowed in the Swamp.

Post by **brian** » Wed May 14, 2014 9:38 am

That was a sweet HR though. ESPN Stats noted that Cabrera has 11 HRs to tie a game or take a lead in the 9th inning or later in the last 7 seasons. Next highest has 8.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed May 14, 2014 9:39 am

He sounds very clutch!

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Thu May 15, 2014 2:50 pm

In 100 years, there have been 84 player-seasons in which a pitcher has had the following line at least 7 times:

8+ IP, 2 or less ER, 6 or less baserunners, 4 or more strikeouts

One of them is Johnny Cueto, who just did that in his last 7 starts. The record is 11. His first 3 starts were pretty awesome too, but he pussied out after 7 IP in each.