Egypt

[howard]

Heating up.

A million plus people took to the streets on Sunday demanding President Morsi leave office. Army backed the protesters, gave ultimatum for him to resolve crisis by tomorrow (Wednesday), or they would take charge.

Morsi rejected ultimatum (by tweet); making televised speech now. Gun battle reported at Cairo University. Revolutions ain't pretty.

[degenerasian]

I haven't followed this closely enough.
Can you give a Cliff Notes version why after protests to get Mubarak out and have elections, there's another protest?

[howard]

When Mubarak left, the army held power for an interim period, and elections were held. The Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized political party; Mubarak had tolerated their existence while forbidding any other organized opposition. They won a majority in parliament, and Morsi the presidency not because the masses were yearning for the Islamic-flavored rule of the MB, but there were no other organized options (the second-place candidate for president was a Mubarak crony).

Once in office, the MB had two big problems. First, the economy sucked ass, and got worse. Second, Morsi and the party went for a major power grab, attempting to institute dictatorial powers. The outcry against that move several months ago (Christmas time I think) caused Morsi to back off, but it energized opposition. Opposition which has built, culminating in this huge demonstration Sunday.

Morsi was elected, no doubt. But he and the MB were hardly popular favorites. Their attempt to seize total power negated their electoral legitimacy in the eyes of the Egyptian people. As this was the first free elections in three or four millenia, they don't have the deep democratic electoral tradition of some western nations (where the 'Supreme' Court chooses the president instead of counting votes).

[degenerasian]

So is there an organized alternative now? If Mubarak and MB are no good for Egypt, then who?

Who is leading the people, or is it simply just the people.

[howard]

I don't know of an organized alternative. Presumably political opposition has matured in the year since the presidential election, after decades of non-existence. But I don't know.

The suck-ass state of the economy is the biggest factor. The people protesting are sick of being broke more than anything else. There are secular elements of the protesters who I generally assume are overestimated by Western press in their numbers and influence. There are folks who had jobs and stability under Mubarak, and would support that faction returning to power. But there are plenty who are ideologically with the MB, think a more traditional, Islamist rule is fine, as long as they can buy bread. United in the sentiment that 'you guys suck, get out', rather than, 'we want our guy/side in there'.

The economic factor is also downplayed by Western media, least the idea of taking to the streets in opposition to failed economic policies spreads, to people in the US occupying public spaces to say, Shit is Fucked Up and Bullshit.

[The Sybian]

But according to Glenn Beck's chalkboard, the MB was supposed to have spread from Egypt across the globe and should now be ruling all land from Bangladesh to central Oklahoma. I don't understand.

[Scottie]

Every single day I think . . . "Well, today, just perhaps, maybe he'll start constructing a pyramid." Maybe today. Maybe today is the day. Accommodating weather for the breed. Hopefully instinctual if not inspiring.

Each gaze out the window is surely a blueprint vision of what may be. Each arf an architect's design.

[howard]

This might be the reason the army turned against Morsi:

Mursi role at Syria rally seen as tipping point for Egypt army

(Reuters) - Army concern about the way President Mohamed Mursi was governing Egypt reached tipping point when the head of state attended a rally packed with hardline fellow Islamists calling for holy war in Syria, military sources said.

At the June 15 rally, Sunni Muslim clerics used the word "infidels" to denounce both the Shi'ites fighting to protect Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the non-Islamists that oppose Mursi at home.

Mursi himself called for foreign intervention in Syria against Assad, leading to a veiled rebuke from the army, which issued an apparently bland but sharp-edged statement the next day stressing that its only role was guarding Egypt's borders.

"The armed forces were very alarmed by the Syrian conference at a time the state was going through a major political crisis," said one officer, whose comments reflected remarks made privately by other army staff. He was speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to talk to the media.

They didn't want to go marching off to Syria, to fight Hezballah/Iran/Assad.

[Scottie]

Does anyone around here earnestly give a fuck what happens in Egypt? I don't. Do you? Really? Really? Are you living there? Have you made investments in the Egyptian economy? Does your paying the rent or buying groceries depend on this endless fucklessness of the, say, Egyptian Stock Market? It does not. And no, you haven't. And you never will. It's been a clusterfuck since the days of Amenhotep. America is wasting itself giving a fuck if meaningless Egypt can't decide between Akhnaton and Al-Akhnaton.

These are people that have had thousands, THOUSANDS, of years and still have not figured out that living in a wasteland desert sucks and, for one of the world's so-called stones of civilization, they never moved beyond cutely stacking triangular rocks and sculpting inexplicable giant kittens.

I can tune in to Al Jazeera and see a revolution in real time! And the ongoing revolution (which amounted to absolutely nothing at all) was made possible by Facebook! Yeah, sure. Egyptians failed to note that the trending interest they caused was nothing more than America's momentary disposable reality television show. The day after? Nobody noticed. The sequel is failing badly. The real reality of Egyptian reality is that life sucks more than it did a couple of years ago. They asked for it, they got it. Hey, screeching idealists will lead all of them to a better something that the screeching idealists cannot define or didn't bother to think through. Yep. Working out just as the lemming chanters didn't understand they designed. Hey hey ho ho. What rhymes with "oops"?

So, hey . . . you see anything amiss in all this?

You're funding this, by the way.

[A_B]

Co-worker had a vaction planned for Monday to Egypt.

[howard]

Well, I earnestly give a fuck about what happens in Egypt.

Nearly 50 years ago, a world war might've kicked off, because of the machinations of a couple of dying empires and a young republic, eager to control this most strategic of global spots.

That same young republic, which I happen to greatly sympathize with their plight, has been invaded by Egyptian troops three times in 65 years. The last time (and perhaps the middle time) had the potential to kick off a war between the US and Russia.

A lot of oil passes through Egypt. Almost as much as passes through another narrow waterway over which we Americans have given quite a bit of fuck over the decades, even willing to go to war over 'security' of said waterway. Where that Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz to get clogged up, that Egyptian waterway would loom that much larger in our 'security'

The fact that I am paying for this leads me to give another fuck. Particularly the fact that for every dollar of my taxes that goes to general aid to the Egyptian people/government, approximately six of my dollars go to the Egyptian army.

Not many people gave a fuck, earnestly or not, about what happened in Sarajevo on a summer afternoon nearly a century ago.

Don't be a hater just because they mastered their saluki's 5000 years (and counting) before you managed to manage that trick.

ETA: Now, the plight of non-arabs in central and south Sudan, or that of buddists in Burma, those poor fucks I couldn't care less about. It's all about the petrol.

[degenerasian]

bah, just come buy my petrol.

[ZMan]

Lately I'm having a hard time giving the slightest of fucks about events greater than 20 miles from myself. So Egypt? I hear news, see pictures, and am completely unmoved.

[kranepool]

My niece visited us this weekend. She's a free spirit, for lack of a better description. And a very bright kid.

She just returned from a 2-year stint teaching art in Daegu, returning only 2 weeks a year for Christmas break. Good racket. 4.0 at UB and Masters at Columbia. Crushing student loan debt, which was being offset by her job, which paid seemingly for for everything, including room.

Her South Korea segment ended and she was off to her next assignment this week - Alexandria, NotVirginia.

Now that it's on hold, she's not getting paid. There is no backup assignment. Her boyfriend is stuck in Daegu, and his assignment is also set to be Alexandria in two months.

I've never see this kid as a mess before. She's a wreck.

[degenerasian]

Student loans in America are mindboggling to me. I don't know how any Americans aren't a wreck.

[Johnnie]

Kranepool, I was like "You're letting me down, man." And then I read "boyfriend" and I was all like "Oh, ok. That's cool."

Student loans in America are mindboggling to me. I don't know how any Americans aren't a wreck.

They are. They're just in denial. And I'm not talking about that river in...oh hey! Look what I did here.

[The Sybian]

Kranepool, I was like "You're letting me down, man." And then I read "boyfriend" and I was all like "Oh, ok. That's cool."

Student loans in America are mindboggling to me. I don't know how any Americans aren't a wreck.

They are. They're just in denial. And I'm not talking about that river in...oh hey! Look what I did here.

She sounds like the kind of girl looking for a guy whose Give-a-Fuck meter runs a little higher.

[Scottie]

Student loans in America are mindboggling to me. I don't know how any Americans aren't a wreck.

I looked at the numbers on this a few months ago. US student loan debt and Canadian student loan debt are virtually identical. Canadians actually end up owing about $1000 more than Americans. And that thousand bucks is a drop in the bucket.

ETA: And it is a grand scam, of course. Banks keep people owing, only able to pay off interest in installments, and people are literally forever in their debt; one of the major reasons that I'd encourage any young person to not go to college but seek other avenues.

Daegu, South Korea, by the way, is about the nicest city I've ever seen. I have nothing but praise for it. Great people, friendly as could be, highly civilized, clean as one could imagine a city being, brilliant transit service. If I ever go back there, that's the where.

[Pruitt]

Well, I earnestly give a fuck about what happens in Egypt.

Nearly 50 years ago, a world war might've kicked off, because of the machinations of a couple of dying empires and a young republic, eager to control this most strategic of global spots.

That same young republic, which I happen to greatly sympathize with their plight, has been invaded by Egyptian troops three times in 65 years. The last time (and perhaps the middle time) had the potential to kick off a war between the US and Russia.

My son is presently boarding a plane to Israel with a large group, so added to my sympathies for the average Egyptian is combined with a heartfelt concern for what goes on in the middle east this summer...

My uncle who has lived in Israel for fourty years echoes what is probably the predominant feeling in his adopted home that as long as the Egyptians are fighting each other, they'll be too busy to worry about their eastern neighbour.

I feel that what is going on in Egypt is a God damned shame. After holding their first free elections, they are now on the brink of having their government once again taken over by the army. These people shed blood in order to overthrow a despot and now are on the verge of having a junta take over.

Some may feel that events are taking a positive turn as a government that is in our eyes radically Islamist is about to be toppled. But the Egyptian people have had a taste of freedom... this is surely a harbinger of violent unrest to come. We in the west live in countries with mature democracies, what a shame that in Egypt, they seem to be about to lose the chance to nurture their own version.

[howard]

A friendly reminder as we consume news from this dude's country:

Fuck Western Media

[Pruitt]

A friendly reminder as we consume news from this dude's country:

Fuck Western Media

Very intresting read.

[howard]

One of the things I learned during the overthrow of Mubarak is that the Egyptian army is very tightly integrated into all aspects of society. Virtually every family has a member who has enlisted/served in the army. The army was an essential part of the gaining of freedom from Mubarak's regime; the army chose the will of the people over that of the dictator.

The army also took power after Mubarak, then relinquished power after the elections. This ouster of Morsi does not necessarily mean the institution of long-term military junta rule. Certainly a possibility, but recent history grants the Egyptian Army a benefit of the doubt, as a democratic force rather than an anti-democratic one.

I've been grasping for an historical analogy. Maybe this: consider if after the electoral plurality of the Nazi party in December 1932, followed by the legal, democratic appointment of Mr. Hitler as Chancellor in January 1933; then the power grab after the Reichstag Fire in February, the various emergency, enabling and patriot acts pushed through into law; if at this point the German people/military/Brownshirts arose to overthrow the democratically elected Hitler and Nazis for their usurpation. Germany didn't have a long, deep tradition of elections by that time either.

[degenerasian]

One of the things I learned during the overthrow of Mubarak is that the Egyptian army is very tightly integrated into all aspects of society. Virtually every family has a member who has enlisted/served in the army. The army was an essential part of the gaining of freedom from Mubarak's regime; the army chose the will of the people over that of the dictator.

The army also took power after Mubarak, then relinquished power after the elections. This ouster of Morsi does not necessarily mean the institution of long-term military junta rule. Certainly a possibility, but recent history grants the Egyptian Army a benefit of the doubt, as a democratic force rather than an anti-democratic one.

I've been grasping for an historical analogy. Maybe this: consider if after the electoral plurality of the Nazi party in December 1932, followed by the legal, democratic appointment of Mr. Hitler as Chancellor in January 1933; then the power grab after the Reichstag Fire in February, the various emergency, enabling and patriot acts pushed through into law; if at this point the German people/military/Brownshirts arose to overthrow the democratically elected Hitler and Nazis for their usurpation. Germany didn't have a long, deep tradition of elections by that time either.

How about South Vietnam after the assasination of Ngo Dinh Diem? There were demonstrations and a procession of army generals as leaders until there was an actual election.

[Scottie]

I've been grasping for an historical analogy. Maybe this: consider if after the electoral plurality of the Nazi party in December 1932, followed by the legal, democratic appointment of Mr. Hitler as Chancellor in January 1933; then the power grab after the Reichstag Fire in February, the various emergency, enabling and patriot acts pushed through into law; if at this point the German people/military/Brownshirts arose to overthrow the democratically elected Hitler and Nazis for their usurpation. Germany didn't have a long, deep tradition of elections by that time either.

Nazi Germany was not, for all of their doings, conscious of nor subservient to any psychotic religion. Particularly not to one so severe and completely insane as Islam.

And is Egypt comparable to 1930s Germany? No.

An accurate historical analogy of what is happening in Egypt is only that which is happening now in Egypt. They simply can't figure it out. The Occupy kids haven't stopped screeching. Delusionally they believe so-called social media can change the unchangable. Any so-called revolution grounded on Twitter and Facebook is damned to its own incomprehension. What protesters always always always miss is the fact that governments are not the face in the office but are the day to day idiots that do paperwork in local outlets.

Look at America. Or Canada. Not the foreign policy but the internal workings. It does not matter much who is the head of state; the same loathsome critters will still be working at Human Resources or Citizenship and Immigration or Social Security. That's where the problem exists. You can't un-elect those sloths. They are unionized and permanent. You certainly can NOT revolution those clowns away.

Why is Egypt any different? Change the guy, sure, go ahead. The million morons with rubber stamps are not going anywhere. It's a purely cultural problem and THAT is where the Occupy kiddies are missing the point. One can screech and screech and screech for change change change but the internal structure is not going anywhere. The internal historically cemented stupidity won't magically disappear. The corruption that is ingrained in their culture is not going to go away. So what will go away? One guy?

Face it. It's a feel good. A typical empty yawp. All protests are. Ranting without a solution. Oblivious to their own noisy hopeless senseless irrelevance. Life will go on. The lemming chants are a useless annoyance. It is a tiresome tale orchestrated by idiots, full of sound and fury and, once again, signifying nothing.

[Scottie]

A successful society is one that has brains enough not to commit social suicide.

We're at it now, here, with all this Greenie lunacy; a silly feel good trend that has lost its own thread; so far off-script as to parody itself. Before that it was acid rain or saving the fucking whales. No nukes. Set your tits garment on fire. Vegan sea kittens.

It will all evaporate in the rising of something even more foolhardy absurd.

[P.D.X.]

You seriously think that our impending societal collapse is because of environmentalists?

[Scottie]

You seriously think that our impending societal collapse is because of environmentalists?

Does a measurement exist for missing the points by that much? Is there some such scale? Full tilt for whatever it is.

Damn, you're off the charts on that.

[P.D.X.]

You seriously think that our impending societal collapse is because of environmentalists?

Does a measurement exist for missing the points by that much? Is there some such scale? Full tilt for whatever it is.

Damn, you're off the charts on that.

I blame the greenies.

[howard]

jeez.

I was not comparing the social, cultural or any other conditions in Egypt to 1930s Germany. But a wonderful straw man to knock down. Nicely done.

I was comparing an undemocratic usurpation of power, in the context of a legal election. And how a military ouster of said usurpers would not necessarily be anti-freedom or anti-will of the people. My choice was an historic instance of broad familiarity.

[Scottie]

jeez.

I was not comparing the social, cultural or any other conditions in Egypt to 1930s Germany. But a wonderful straw man to knock down. Nicely done.

"straw man", really?

You brought up the Germans (who are completely irrelevant to the discussion of 2013 Egypt) and have the audacity to chuck "straw man" at me? After yourself? Shake your head.

Guess again.

I was comparing an undemocratic usurpation of power, in the context of a legal election. And how a military ouster of said usurpers would not necessarily be anti-freedom or anti-will of the people. My choice was an historic instance of broad familiarity.

That's Monty Python, Holy Grail, filth meeting a king, that bit, isn't it?

I thought we were an autonomous collective. And so on.

[howard]

Do you really give a fuck about what is happening in Egypt? Do you? Really? Really?

ETA: The fucking Giants are on. Leave me alone. Haven't I suffered enough?

[Scottie]

Do you really give a fuck about what is happening in Egypt? Do you? Really? Really?

No.

ETA: The fucking Giants are on. Leave me alone. Haven't I suffered enough?

I'm watching it, too. And the Reds/Giants game is one of my favorite historic matches, right up there with Dodgers/Cardinals, and as a long-time San Francisco resident, I'm completely prepared for the heartache to come.

That Votto kid is a Canadian. There's the problem. Right there.

[kranepool]

Democratically elected Islamist government overthrown in coup by US-funded military. What could go wrong?
— Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias

[Scottie]

Democratically elected Islamist government overthrown in coup by US-funded military. What could go wrong?
— Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias

No idea who that was; had to Google it. Yet always hilarious when leftie wingnuts demonstrably self-righteously and instinctively blame other leftie wingnuts for something that does not affect them in any possible way.

[Pruitt]

Democratically elected Islamist government overthrown in coup by US-funded military. What could go wrong?
— Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias

No idea who that was; had to Google it. Yet always hilarious when leftie wingnuts demonstrably self-righteously and instinctively blame other leftie wingnuts for something that does not affect them in any possible way.

My political leanings are probably closer to Enrique's brother than to Scottie's, but we seem to share a revulsion with smarmy political tweets.

[howard]

The political experts have been wrong about much of the events in the Arab world since the Tunisia uprising two years ago. (Well, for a lot longer.) No reason to start paying attention to them now, as they are consistently wrong about Egypt. As I try to figure out wtf is going on there, I pay little attention to the US media (and little to UK analysis--their factual coverage is pretty good, the beeb and the Manchester Guardian). Even Al Jazeera, with their pro-MB bias, was way little and late to this ant-Morsi movement story.

[degenerasian]

My coworker (Egyptian) felt that Al Jazeera's coverage of this has been biased. The Qatar influence seems to be seeping in when events run counter to the objectives of the monarchy. Qatar has funneled quite a bit of money into the brotherhood over the last few years and they didn't seem to like the idea of watching Morsy and the gang get tossed by the Army. The Arabic version has always seemed like propaganda, but even the English version has changed lately.

[howard]

Now Obama Using Troops To Prop Up Cairo's Islamofascists
Posted 06/24/2013 06:43 PM ET
Unbelievable.

Some photos of anti-american sentiment displays

[Scottie]

My coworker (Egyptian) felt that Al Jazeera's coverage of this has been biased. The Qatar influence seems to be seeping in when events run counter to the objectives of the monarchy. Qatar has funneled quite a bit of money into the brotherhood over the last few years and they didn't seem to like the idea of watching Morsy and the gang get tossed by the Army. The Arabic version has always seemed like propaganda, but even the English version has changed lately.

I've noticed that, too. I pay for that channel (on Shaw). And even in the last year or so the reporting is not subtly different but rather significantly different.

I'd compare it to CNN in some ways. Remember how CNN used to be good? Back when they'd grab raw footage and just slap it on the air? Now CNN is pretty much auto-tuned. Al-Jazeera is getting like that.

And, as an aside, anything named "Brotherhood" is not going to work out well. Whether Aryan, Muslim, or purple polka-dotted.

[howard]

Egypt’s “Revocouption” and the future of Democracy on the Nile